Trends
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Two out of five homes that sell do so within three months |
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 Two out of five homes (39%) sell within the first 90 days that they are on the market. But wait -- that's not to say that they "go under contract" within 90 days -- they are listed, go under contract, and close (!!) within 90 days. That means that there continue to be a significant number of sellers who are willing to price their homes reasonably, prepare their homes well, and choose to work with Realtors who will market their homes thoroughly and professionally. As you are getting ready to sell your home, we need to delve into all three of those areas -- how will we price the home, what will you do (condition) to prepare your house for the market, and how will we market your home. Price, Condition, Marketing. | |
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Local Unemployment Rate in Context |
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 The unemployment rate went up in June 2014 for the Harrrisonburg - Rockingham Metro Area. Read today's Daily News Record article for more details. Keep in mind, however, that....
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Pace of 2014 Home Sales Continues To Creep Up On 2013 |
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 At the start of this month, home sales for the year were down 7% from last year. July, thus far, has shown further gains --- as this year's pace of home sales is now only 5% down from last year. Stay tuned....the remainder of the summer market may yet help us catch back up to last year's pace of home sales! | |
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Foreclosures slowing down in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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 There are only five foreclosure sales scheduled in the future at this point. This is a much lower level than I've observed in many years. This could be an abnormal lull -- perhaps we'll start to see more sales scheduled in the near future, but at this point, nearly everybody in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be keeping up with their mortgage payments. View upcoming foreclosure sales at HarrisonburgForeclosures.com. | |
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More buyers are viewing properties this Spring and Summer than were doing so last year |
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 After a slow February, March and April --- as it pertains to showings --- you can see that there have been many more buyers in the market this year during May, June and July as compared to the same months last year. * July 2014 data is extrapolated from 7/1/2014-7/22/2014 data. | |
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Home values going up despite sales prices going down? |
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 Tracking median sales prices can sometimes be deceiving....
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Local Housing Market Heats Up in June 2014 |
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 Featured Property: 7894 McGaheysville Road, Penn Laird, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and the local housing market started heating up in June 2014. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  As shown above, there were several encouraging signs in June 2014....
Care for some even more exciting news?
June 2014 home sales (108) were the highest month of June home sales seen anytime recently. Thus, the record high number of home sales in May and June is starting to make up for the disappointingly low number of home sales in March and April. Care for some even MORE exciting news?
A record number of home buyers signed contracts in June 2014 -- marking an astonishing, surprising, remarkable 51% increase over June 2013.  As shown above, despite strong sales in May and June, we're still tracking 7% behind the pace of 2013 home sales. We'll have to wait and see if the remainder of 2014 (spurred on by strong contracts in June 2014) can help us meet and/or surpass last year's count of 1,014 home sales. Further treats you'll find in my full market report (online or PDF) include....
Care to read about all of these juicy details (and more!) in my full 30-page market report? You can read it online or download the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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The pace of high end ($400K+) home sales in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 I typically break our market down into four price segments when looking at trends in home sales....
The graph above shows the trends in sales of homes over $400K when analyzing the average number of homes sold per month in a rolling twelve month period. A few observations....
For further analysis of home sales over $400K, check out HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com -- or email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and we can discuss your house particularly. | |
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Are low interest rates (several years ago) making some owners less likely to sell? |
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 Are low mortgage interest rates from 2012-2013 keeping today's inventory levels down? Sound confusing? Read the excerpt above, or the entire article on the Matrix Blog.... New Angle: Blame Low Mortgage Rates Here in Harrisonburg, I don't talk to many homeowners who are hesitant to sell because of the low interest rate they obtained in 2012-13. In fact, I don't see many homeowners who bought in 2012-13 even considering selling at all. If you bought a home in 2012-13, likely you were and are planning to be in it for quite a few more years. And today's higher mortgage interest rates? They aren't really that high! | |
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How many home sales should we expect each year? |
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 It wasn't normal to have 1,600+ home sales per year --- but we did, at the peak of the housing boom. It wasn't normal to have < 800 home sales per year --- but we did, at the valley of the housing bust. Now, the question is --- what is a normal or typical amount of homes to be sold in any given year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? 900? 1000? 1100? 1200? Last year, our market raced up to an annual sales pace of over 1,000 home sales per year. It seemed that we would continue to see this annual pace of home sales accelerate --- perhaps to 1100/year or 1200/year. Thus far in 2014, however, we have not seen than 1000+ trend continue. Perhaps we're looking around 950 home sales this year, and then back up to 1000+ territory in 2015? | |
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Was 2013 a new trajectory, or an abnormality? |
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 OK -- this is as clearly as I can put it....
It could have been the new trajectory --- and perhaps 2014 home sales will catch back up later this year, after having been slowed down by wintry weather early in 2014. Or perhaps, 2013 was an abnormality --- and the pace of home sales in 2014 will not catch up to the fast pace of 2013. Only time will tell.... | |
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Small May Sales Surge Might Mean Market Still Mostly Stable |
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 Featured Property: 2944 Crystal Spring Lane, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and things are starting to look slightly rosier, but it's still not as wonderful of a year of sales as we saw in 2013. Click here to read the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights....  The good news, as shown above, is that there were 99 home sales in May --- which is ever so slightly more (+2) than last May. Even with this slight improvement in the month of May, 12.6% fewer homes have sold thus far in 2014 as compared to 2013. After a strong market recovery last year, many (most?) people assumed we would see further market recovery this year --- both in the pace and price of sales. One theory is that the abnormally cold and snowy winter created a slower start to the year. We'll have to wait to see if that theory holds water as we move through the rest of the year. If that were to be true, I believe we would have seen more of an improvement in May, but I'm willing to patiently (?) wait to see what June home sales will show. Another theory is that a backlog of buyers (many more than normal) bought in 2013, and that the pace of home sales in 2014 is returning to the trend we were otherwise seeing in 2011 - 2012.  Also in the "pretty exciting, but don't order the party bagel from Mr. J's yet" category -- the 99 home sales we saw in May was actually the strongest month of May sales in recent history. That's good news, even if it does beat the old record of 97 by only two home sales.  There is good and bad news when examining the pace at which contracts are being signed this year....
And if those words didn't jump off the page at you and give you hope and enthusiasm for the weekend ahead, then take look through the full report that offers lots of colorful graphs that are bound to inform and entertain. You can read it online here or download the PDF here. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Contracts in May 2014 Almost Sets New Record |
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 May 2014 nearly set a new record for the number of contracts signed in a single month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above, there were 136 contracts --- just shy of last year's 143 contracts in May 2013. Hopefully, this will help the somewhat slow start to the 2014 housing market. | |
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Will May 2014 Contracts Revive The 2014 Market? |
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 As shown above, year-to-date home sales are down this year (233) as compared to last year (284). Many suspect that the long, cold winter may have made the first few months of the year slower than they would have otherwise been. Per that theory, we should see a huge rebound in contracts (now / recently / soon) to help the 2014 market catch back up with where the 2013 market was last year. Let's see what we're seeing thus far.... April contract numbers were strong in 2014, but not as strong as in 2013....
Now, let's look at the first 15 days of May, this year versus last year....
As you can see, over the past 45 days buyers have been buying at the same pace (actually a bit slower) than last year. Thus far we're not seeing a rebound of higher buying numbers than last year at this time. So, the big question -- we've seen an 18% decline in YTD sales so far in 2014 -- will that remain at -18% for the rest of the year? Will 2014 pull even for no gain or loss? Somewhere in between? Theories, predictions and guesses are welcome! | |
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Sellers believe the local housing market is recovering |
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 The graph above examines the trend in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham over the past seven years. After three years of declining inventory levels (2011, 2012, 2013) we are now finally seeing inventory levels starting to increase again. This likely means....
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Puzzling start to 2014 for local housing market |
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 Featured Property: 1103 Dices Spring Road, Weyers Cave, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and thus far, 2014 is not as exciting of a year as 2013 was for our local housing market. Click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights....  2013 was an encouraging year in the local housing market. After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we finally saw a (strong!) rebound in the home sales activity. Now, however, with four months of 2014 behind us, we are facing a very different trend when comparing year over year trends -- the pace of home sales has declined 18% year-over-year. This could be the result of the icy winter weather in 2014... but that is becoming a less likely theory as we move through Spring. The next theory I'll throw out is that 2013 was a rebound year, with higher than normal sales volume, and 2014 is is reverting back to the slow upward trend that began in 2011. Even though it's not highlighted in yellow above, we should also note that prices seem to be improving year-to-date, with a 3% increase in median sales price.  Going back to the rebound theory -- the blue line in this graph shows the month-by-month sales experienced during 2013. As is quickly evident, last year's home sales were head and shoulders above any other recent year of home sales. Home sales this year (red) certainly look rather unexciting in comparison to last year (2013) though when taken within the context of 2012 (green) we see that there has been an improvement when looking at a 24 month differential. Again, this may indicate that 2013 was a year of our marketing bouncing back and burning through old inventory, but that the 2013 sales pace was not sustainable moving forward. Now, here are your teasers to encourage you to read the rest of this data filled report....
There's much, much more. Read it online (here) or download the PDF (here) and as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Harrisonburg is GROWING, quickly |
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 Per NerdWallet, Harrisonburg is Virginia's fastest growing City. Set in the Blue Ridge Mountains in northwestern Virginia, Harrisonburg's 32.1% income growth, plus growth in population and jobs sent it to the top of our list. The area has a farming tradition, but science and academics are now leading industries in town. DBT Data operates a cyber integration center in Harrisonburg and SRI International, a bioscience research corporation, recently expanded its offices in town. The area is also home to James Madison University, which has an enrollment of more than 18,000 students per year. City planners project that Harrisonburg will claim more than 60,000 residents by 2030. In preparation for new residents and future growth, the city is following its Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance plan to make downtown Harrisonburg a destination for the region and an engine of economic growth. The whole city's pitching in- volunteers have logged more than 85,000 volunteer hours so far on the project.Per the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Chamber of Commerce, we are also one of the top 20 emerging metro areas. | |
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Growth in City of Harrisonburg Elementary Schools |
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 Enrollment grew over 15% in elementary schools in the City of Harrisonburg over the past five years. Read more at Old South High and read about some of the potential reasons at StatChat blog from the Weldon Cooper Center. | |
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Changes in Number of Homes For Sale, By Price Range |
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 Above you can see the changes in inventory levels over the past year in four price ranges.... Under $200K (-1%)
$200K - $300K (-15%)
$300K - $400K (+50%)
Over $400K (+13%)
Learn plenty more about our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Home Sales Still Soft at Start of Spring Selling Season |
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 Featured Property: 310 Victoria Drive, Bridgewater, VA 22812 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF. Below are a few highlights you might be interested to know about....  As shown above, home sales in March were the lowest that we have seen over the past several years. This is undoubtedly due to the absurdly low temperatures this winter PLUS the many snowfalls PLUS the many days that schools were closed. Now that the warmer weather is upon us we will hopefully see an increase in home sales come April and May.  We also saw a smaller number (91) of buyers sign contracts during March as compared to last March (114) --- though an increase from March 2012 (87). Let's hope that the warm Spring days of April will lead to many (many!) buyers going to see houses and sign contracts.  A significant part of whether buyers will write offers is related to whether they are finding compelling houses on the market -- and we're finally starting to see increases in inventory levels. These new listings will hopefully rejuvenate buyer interest and get them off of the sidelines and into the buying market.  Amidst a few market indicators that aren't as positive as they could be, here is one bright spot --- sales prices of attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condominiums) are going UP! Want to know more? Get all the juicy details in the full report. Read it online or download the PDF. As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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