Trends
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Home prices less negotiable |
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 A few snippets buyers should be aware of....
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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Stabilizing Around 4.4%? |
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 At least for now, mortgage interest rates seem to be stabilizing around 4.4%. These rates are an entire point higher than the all-time lows seen in late 2012 and in May 2013......however, they are still lower than than any mortgage interest rates seen anytime other than in the past two-ish years. | |
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Foreclosures down 22% YTD in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Home Sales Price Distribution in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Thus far this year, 60% of all home sales have been under $200K......and 90% of all home sales have been under $325K in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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Are home prices up 12.2% in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? |
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 As you may have read about in the news, home values (nationally) are increasing.... USA TODAY: May home prices show 12.2% annual increaseSo, is that what we're seeing here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as well? As shown in the chart at the top, we have only seen a 0.2% annual increase in prices in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Review a full battery of local housing market trends here. | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com updated with 2013-Q2 sales data |
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 HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q2, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again. So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
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Are rising interest rates slowing down buyer activity? |
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 It seems quite possible --- see above. But remember folks, these are still ridiculously low interest rates from a historical perspective. | |
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2012 was not the year to (try to) sell an expensive home |
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 Last year was the worst year in the last 10 years to try to sell a home for more than $600K in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This year is shaping up quite nicely. It may not be a blockbuster (10+ or 12+) year, but it won't be nearly as bad as last year. Looking for that perfect $600K+ home? Don't miss this one: photos | web site | |
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Impact of Interest Rate Changes on a $250K Home Purchase |
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Interest rates are increasing. It's not the end of the world, but buying soon will likely be more affordable than buying later.....  The payments shown above only reflect principal and interest, not taxes and insurance.  | |
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Mortgage interest rates just barely under 4% |
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 Interest rates have increased from 3.35% to 3.98% over the past six weeks. A 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate below 4% is still fantastic (even below 5% is great) but if you're buying soon, you should consider finalizing those details ASAP to try to get a 3.something% interest rate if you can. | |
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143 Contracts Signed in May 2013 (most contracts per month in at least six years!) |
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 I have been tracking contract activity over over six years and I have never seen contract levels this high in a single month. Over the past six years, we never saw any more than 121 contracts signed in a single month. Last month, there were an astonishing 143 contracts signed! | |
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Lots (lots!) of contracts signed thus far in May 2013 |
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 If the first 28 days of May are any indication, our local housing market will be setting new records this month. There have already been 125 contracts signed on residential real estate listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County this month. That is nearly double the pace of contract signing seen in previous months of May. | |
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Since the housing market is improving, will my home value finally start to increase? |
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 As stated yesterday, even though sales are up, prices are not yet increasing. So what can we expect of home prices over the next five years? I believe we will start to see an increase in prices this year (perhaps 1%) and then we may see a more ambitious (2% - 3%) increase for the next few years after that. Bear in mind that depending on the timeframe you examine (see the bottom of this post) the median home value increases around 5% per year. The matrix above shows that a $250K home would (potentially) increase to a value of $289K over the next five years if we see an average of 3% appreciation per year over the next five years. Click here to download the table above as an Excel file to plug in your own variables. National median home values increased 5.94% per year between 1960 and 2000. National median home values increased 6.72% per year between 1970 and 2000. National median home values increased 4.76% per year between 1980 and 2000. | |
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Sales Up, Inventory Down, Prices Stable in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 As several of you pointed out, last week's sales and inventory graph was missing the trendline for price. So, here (above) is the updated graph. As you can see, over the past two years we have seen prices stabilize as sales increased and inventory decreased. All good signs for further stability and growth in our local housing market! | |
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Local unemployment rate drops below 5% for first time in 50 months |
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 The Harrisonburg / Rockingham unemployment rate dropped below 5% for the first time in 50 months in March. This is a good sign for our local economy, and also speaks to trends being seen across the state and country as well. | |
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Downtown Harrisonburg featured in national publication, Main Street Now |
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 Downtown Harrisonburg has seen some major growth over the past eight years and there are exciting projects on the horizon. Perhaps that's why Downtown Harrisonburg was recently featured in the national publication pictured above, Main Street Now. In fact, the magazine actually features a lengthy case study highlighting the successes in downtown Harrisonburg, with quotes from Eddie Bumbaugh, Barry Kelley, Andrew Forward and John Sallah....  Click here to download the Jan/Feb 2013 issue of Main Street Now to read the full story about how Downtown Harrisonburg has been transformed in recent years. | |
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36% fewer homes for sale under $200K, 18% more sales! |
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 There are fewer and fewer homes for sale under $200K (shown above) but there are more and more buyers (see below).  These crossing trends (fewer sellers, more buyers) helps to balance the under-$200K segment of our local market, and since many of those sellers will move up to $200K-$300K sales, it can slowly, positively impact the remainder of our market as well. | |
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Mixed emotions about low inventory levels. |
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 As shown above, we are currently experiencing the lowest inventory levels we have seen anytime in the past six years. The results?
Let me know if you would like an analysis of competing inventory for your particular home. | |
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Are Home Sales At Normal Levels In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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 I believe there are still a lower than normal number of people buying in our housing market. Take a look at the graph above which tracks population growth over the past 12 years as compared to the number of single family home buyers in any given year. If we assume that a normal percentage of all residents bought in 2000, we are still seeing a smaller than normal percentage of residents buying as of last year. Some might even argue that we should mark the start of the normal trend line somewhere between the number of 2000 buyers and 2001 buyers. If so, then the current market has even further to grow before approaching a historically normal number of buyers per year, as shown below....  | |
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I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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 As shown in the graph above, the median sales price for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has been stable (between $173K and $177K) for 23 months now. Each of these data points shows the median sales price for a 12 month period, so they are solid, long-term trends. Also shown above, our local market has seen a relatively steady increase in the pace of home sales for 20 months now. Each of these data points shows the total number of home sales during the most recent 12 month period, so again, these are solid long-term indicators. Bottom line? While individual homes, neighborhoods or price ranges might still see some price adjustments, I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Read more in my most recent monthly housing market report. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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