• Houses in neighborhood X were selling for $300K in the market boom.
• They came down and down and sold for as little as $250K a few months ago.
• Now they're all selling for $260K and I'm sad because I missed out on a $250K buy.
• If I wait longer, I'll get to cry even more to be buying at $270K!

A few notes and disclaimers....

• Has our local housing market recovered?  Not necessarily, and not in all price ranges and property types --- but there are a lot of encouraging signs.
• You might recall the opposite dynamic occurring with sellers as they watched their home decline in value over time.
• Did I really miss the boat?  Are prices only going up from here?  Maybe, maybe not -- we'll only know 6-12 months from now looking back, but we are definitely starting to see stabilization in many price ranges, and buyers are finding less room to negotiate.

• Under $200K >> Sales up 14% over the past year.
  
• $200K - $300K >> Sales up 33% over the past year.
  
• $300K - $400K >> Not much of a change in either direction.
  
• Over $400K >> Sales have slowed over the past year.

The winner, it seems, is the $200K - $300K price range, though the lowest price range (under $200K) is also doing quite well.

1. Home sales increased 21% (wow!) in July 2012 as compared to last July.
2. YTD home sales show a solid 8% improvement over 2011.
3. YTD median sales prices show a modest 3% improvement over 2011.
4. Despite other market improvements, YTD average days on market has increased 3%.
   

July 2012 was quite a month for home sales --- and this year has shown a strong upward May-June-July sales trajectory, not unlike the 2009 sales trajectory.

While the graph above only shows price trends for single family homes (not the overall market) it is encouraging (for sellers, at least) to see a halt to the multi-year decline in home prices in the area.

Among other market trends to improve, the list price to sales price ratio has also started to improve in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  This means that sellers are (on average) negotiating less off of their asking prices when selling their homes.  This is more welcome news for sellers --- and buyers should take note that their window of maximum negotiating ability might be starting to close.

Record low mortgage interest rates have certainly helped to spur on the local housing market as buyers continue to take advantage of their opportunity to lock in their housing costs for now and the future.

For much more insight and analysis, click on the image above to download my full market report specifically focused on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. 

And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

1. This year (2012) is showing an improvement (+5%) over last year.
2. The spike in 2010 was related to the federal home buyer tax credit.
3. We are unlikely to see further declines in sales pace.

What this means for you....

1. If you're looking to buy, do it soon.  A changing tide in the local housing market (things are picking up) and the historical low interest rates, make now a great time to buy if you're considering doing so in the next 6-12 months.
2. If you're looking to sell, things will hopefully be brighter and brighter from here.  The pace of sales has increased and prices are stabilizing, so hopefully you won't see further declines in your home values.  If you absolutely have to sell, you should be OK doing so now, but if you can wait --- keep waiting for another year or two.

• A seller would (almost never) accept a contract with a home sale contingency without a kickout clause to allow them to move on to a different buyer that didn't have a home sale contingency.
   
  
• There are only 3 properties in the MLS that are under contract with kickout clauses.

I must say, I was quite surprised to find this to be the case --- I thought perhaps 10% - 20% of contracts might have kickout clauses (and thus home sale contingencies) because plenty of buyers have to sell before buying.

It would seem that most buyers are likely waiting to make offers until they have their own properties under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause) AND/OR most sellers are not accepting offers with home sale contingencies unless the buyers' houses are already under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause).

If you are a buyer, I would certainly suggest the strategy outlined above (and the only one that is apparently working with sellers right now) --- get a contract on your house and THEN make an offer on the property you would like to purchase!

As published yesterday in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal. 
Scroll beyond the article for two helpful infographics.

Many people believe the assessment of their property istheir home's value.  In actuality, theassessed value of a property is the value assigned to the property by the localassessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay intaxes. Certainly, the assessed value is intended to be the precise valueof your home – but quite frequently there is a disparity in this assessed valueand market value.  The market value ofyour home is the price at which it would sell in the current market.

Of interest, the City of Harrisonburg real estateassessments are currently a bit more accurate than those in RockinghamCounty.  As can be seen in theinfographic, homes sold during 2011 in the City of Harrisonburg sold for 95.1%of their current assessed value. Breaking it down further, 64% of the homes that sold during 2011 in theCity of Harrisonburg sold at a lower price point than their assessed value.  This is an indication that many City propertyassessments are likely a bit too high. 

In Rockingham County, most property assessments are too low –as 70% of properties that sold in 2011 sold for more than their assessed value– and on average, properties sold for 110% of their assessed value.  Of note, homes in the City of Harrisonburgare re-assessed every year, while homes in Rockingham County are onlyre-assessed every four years.  In thepast, this has resulted in lower than expected assessments in Rockingham Countydue to the infrequent updates to their assessed values.

Given the great variation in assessed values and marketvalues, homeowners should not rely on their tax assessment for an understandingof their property's value.  Furthermore,home buyers should not rely on assessed values to guide them in understandingthe market value of a home that they might purchase.  Both buyers and sellers should strive tounderstand the market value of a particular piece of real estate my analyzingsimilar homes that have recently sold and those currently on the market in agiven neighborhood or price point.

Click on either image below for a printable PDF....

• Heritage Estates (upscale 50+ community with pool, adjacent golf course)
   
  
• The Glen at Cross Keys (low maintenance paired homes on Cross Keys Road)
   
  
• Founders Way (one-level condominiums with open floor plans, upgraded finishes)
   
  
• Meadowbrook (one and two story homes in community with 29% greenspace)