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Lower Priced Market Segments See Largest Swings In Housing Inventory |
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 Not all price ranges are created equally, it seems. The hardest hit price range, perhaps unsurprisingly, is the under $200K price range -- where we have seen a 57% decline in the number of homes for sale over the past two years. Of note -- part of the problem here is increasing home values -- which prices some homes out of the "under $200K" price range. Regardless, though, buyers looking to stay under $200K for their home purchase are having an ever more difficult time doing so. The $200K - $300K market also had a sizable (26%) decline in the number of homes actively listed for sale as compared to two years ago. Both the $300K - $400K and the $400K+ price ranges only saw slight (-5%, -7%) declines in inventory levels - so not a marked difference from where inventory levels were two years ago.. | |
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Median Home Sales Price |
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 Here's a really long look back at the median sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see another solid increase in the median sales price in 2020 and likely over the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Home Sales |
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 Here's a really long look back at the number of homes that sell each year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see 1,300+ home sales per year for the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
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 Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market...  [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper...  [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find...  ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months...  As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement...  We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future...  Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap...  Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory...  The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find...  The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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When Will Home Buying Activity Ramp Up in 2020? |
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 It should be no surprise that buying activity (contracts being signed) slows down over the Winter. As shown above -- an average of 79 buyers sign contracts in January, which then increases a bit, to 90, in February, and then makes a much larger jump in March to an average of 133/month. So, we're going to say the MARCH is when we first seem a big jump in buyer activity. For that reason, many sellers wait until March (or even April) to put their homes on the market -- though the Spring market brings more competition from other sellers in addition to meaning that we'll start to see more buyers. I have also read several articles (locally, regionally and nationally) talking about how this year the "Spring housing market" is taking off just after Christmas instead of in March like in past years. Let's take a look... Contracts Signed Between December 26 and January 8...
So, over the past three years, there have been an average of 26 contracts between during the two weeks after Christmas. And how about this year?
So, this year is actually starting off just about the same as we've seen for the past three years. The Spring market isn't quite here yet despite what you might read. :-) | |
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My Predictions for the 2020 Real Estate Market |
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 As is my annual tradition, I am making some predictions about what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market in 2020. Above, you'll note that there was only a 1% increase in home sales between 2018 and 2019 -- and I am predicting a 2% increase between 2019 and 2020. A few thoughts along those lines...
So -- I'm betting on another increase, albeit a small increase, in the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020. And how about those prices...  As shown above, we saw a 7% increase in the median sales price in 2018, followed by a 5% increase in 2019! I am -- perhaps too boldly (?) -- predicting we'll see another 5% increase in the median sales price this year. If I'm wrong on either prediction, perhaps it will be this one -- perhaps we'll start to see prices rising, but not quite as fast as they have over the past two years. The chances seem relatively low that we'd see an actual decline in the median sales price in 2020. OK - enough about my predictions --what about for you? Email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and let me know where you think our local market will go in 2020. And keep up with all the market data between now and next January by signing up to receive my monthly housing market report by email if you are not already receiving it. | |
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Comparing My 2019 Housing Market Predictions To Reality |
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 As shown above, I was slightly (just slightly) too optimistic about the pace of home sales that we would see in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2019. I was predicting that we'd see a 2.2% increase to 1,325 home sales -- and we only saw a 1.6% increase to 1,317 home sales. So -- pretty close -- we did see a slight increase in the pace of home sales, and it was less than the 3% that we saw in 2018. Just as I observed last year -- even though we had low inventory levels all year long, buyers still found homes to buy -- which created a slight increase in the pace of sales, and a further decline in "days on market" in 2019.  If I was ever-so-slightly too bold in my prediction as to the pace of home sales, I was too conservative in my prediction as to the change in median sales price we'd see during 2019. I was predicting we'd see a 2.4% increase to a median sales price of $217,000 -- and we actually saw a 5.7% increase to a median sales price of $224,000 in 2019. This is similar to the 6.9% increase that we saw in 2018. So, we did see a smaller increase (5.7% is smaller than 6.9%) during 2019 than we saw in 2018 -- but it was still a larger increase than has been seen in most recent years. Stay tuned for some predictions for 2020 in the coming days! | |
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Home Sales Rise Around One Percent In 2019 |
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 All home sales have not yet been reported but it is seems that we will see around a 1% increase in the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between 2018 and 2019. There have been 1,317 home sales recorded in the MLS thus far for last year and we may see that figure rise a bit more over the next few days, but not by much. This is a slight increase compared to last year -- and marks the highest year in recent memory...
Stay tuned for my full market report in the next week or so, as well as predictions for the 2020 housing market. Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR! | |
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Responding Well (or not) To A LOW Offer On Your House |
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 Sellers are sometimes quite shocked, dismayed or disheartened to receive a low offer on their house, for example, an offer of $325K on a $375K listing. But it is important to remember that even that low offer really is a compliment!
 If you have not yet had an offer on your house (that is listed at $375K) and you receive an offer of $325K, that doesn't necessarily mean your house is only worth $325K, nor does it necessarily mean that you should accept $325K or something close to it. It does, however, mean something quite exciting --- somebody wants to buy your house!!! Of course, negotiations won't always work out with low offers -- but recognize a low offer for what it is -- a buyer who wants to buy your house, and perhaps the first buyer who has declared as much through a written offer! If there is any way to put a deal together with those buyers, you ought to pursue it, as it's hard to know when the next buyer will work up the courage to tell you that they want to buy your house! | |
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It Might Be Hard To Find A Home To Buy In The City of Harrisonburg |
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 The number of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg keeps dropping. That's not to say that homes aren't selling -- a total of 390 homes have sold in the City of Harrisonburg during the first 353 days of the year -- putting us at a pace of around 34 home sales per month. But the number of homes available to buyers continues to decline -- now down to only 42 homes for sale! Here's a bit longer of a context....
And now -- only 42 homes for sale! If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg it might be difficult to find a home that is a perfect fit or you given a very limited supply of homes for sale. And when a home does come on the market that works for you, it is likely to sell quickly. | |
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Last Chance To Build A New Home at Heritage Estates |
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 If you want to build a home at Heritage Estates -- an active adult community in Harrisonburg, Virginia with homes featuring French Country architecture -- this is basically your last chance to do so! There has been a flurry of buyer activity in the neighborhood and there is now only ONE remaining home site (Lot 18) on which you can build a home.  The developer is also building a model home (rendering above) on Lot 30 (details in a PDF here) -- so that is an option as well, though it is framed in and under roof, so you don't have quite as much flexibility as to what you might build. Find our more about Heritage Estates here and email me if you have further interest or questions. | |
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JMU On Campus Enrollment Seemingly Plateauing Just Under 21K |
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 Based on JMU's enrollment projections approved by the State Council of High Education for Virginia, on campus enrollment...
These figures, and their changes over time, are the best numbers to be using when analyzing the need for off campus student housing in Harrisonburg -- and seem to be indicating that our local market does not need more student housing -- since enrollment is only anticipated to rise by 205 students between now and 2025. | |
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Home Buyer Activity Will Slow But Not Stop Over The Winter |
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 Generally speaking, folks don't use their outdoor hose spigots in the winter. I suppose you might use it from time to time, but it's just not as fun to wash your car in the driveway on most December days. Oh, and if you did use your hose spigot, and left the hose attached, you'd potentially have serious problems when the water in the hose freezes, backs up into the spigot, maybe into the pipe, and something splits, cracks or bursts. So, once we get into Winter, most folks are turning off their hose spigots for the last time until Spring. But not so with the local housing marketing. Between March and August (Spring and Summer, as we'll call it) an average of 134 buyers signed contracts to buy houses each month. A pretty rapid pace of buyer activity. So, this winter, what should we expect? Will that supply of buyers be turned off like a hose spigot, and will the buyers slowly drip out at a rate of 13 buyers per month? Thus, 10% of the pace of buyer activity in the Spring and Summer? Nope! Looking at last Winter (December, January, February) there were an average of 79 buyers signing contracts per month! Yes, you read that correctly, only a 41% decline in buyer activity during the Winter months -- as compared to the Spring and Summer months. So, unlike your hose spigot, which will likely be barely used during the Winter -- the local housing market doesn't slow down, or cool down, or shut down, nearly as much. | |
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When Buying A Home, Keep In Mind That School Districts Can Change |
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 In the news lately...
There are a few more possible changes in Rockingham County, but the above is a sampling of possible changes. Read about the plans for change in Rockingham County Public Schools here. All of this is to say that if you are buying a home, and one of the critical factors is whether it is in school district X or school district Y, then we'll likely want to check to see if you are in an area that might be affected by changes that are currently being discussed -- AND -- you should know that further changes in school districts could take place before your sweet little Johnny (currently 2 months old) is old enough to go to high school. As a random side note, the Rockingham County school district map (shown above) downloadable here does not appear to have chnaged in the past nine years! So, I suppose change had to happen eventually... | |
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Gazumping Is Not Common Among Harrisonburg Home Sellers |
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 Gazumping!?!? What in the world is that? I had to Google it after a homeowner referenced it when I was meeting with them this week. It seems it is more common in England and Wales than it is here -- thankfully! Per Dictionary.com... gazump - to cheat (a house buyer) by raising the price, at the time a contract is to be signed, over the amount originally agreed upon. Some sellers in this market might price their home extraordinarily competitively to aim towards having multiple (above asking price?) offers to consider -- but they don't typically gazump. Scenario 1 -- Homeowner concludes that her home is worth $300K. She lists it for $295K and is delighted to receive offers for $295K, $300K, $302K and $304K. She sells the house for $304K. Not gazumping. Scenario 2 -- Homeowner concludes that his home is worth $300K. He lists it for $280K, receives an offer of $290K, tells the buyer he is going to accept it, and then changes the price to $305K after the buyer has signed the contract, and demands that the buyer initial and approve the change. Definitely gazumping. So. Don't gazump. :-) PS. Gazumping has nothing to do with camels. Gazump rhymes with hump and camels have humps. Sorry for any confusion. ;-) | |
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Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019 |
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 Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data...  As shown above...
Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes...  As shown above...
It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County...  As shown above...
But in the County...  As shown above...
And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity...  I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December.  When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016.  When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data.  Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom.  Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated.  While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year.  Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction??  Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties!  If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. | |
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Home Buyers and Sellers Often Have Very Different Perspectives When Negotiating Repairs After A Home Inspection |
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 While not always the case, a general rule of thumb is that... On home inspection repairs...
Inspector: Several roof shingles are missing, and the roof is past its life expectancy. Seller: Replace the shingles. Buyer: Replace the roof. Inspector: The air handler coils are dirty and the heat pump is reeaaallly old. Seller: Clean and service the heat pump and air handler. Buyer: Replace them both! These are a few extreme examples to start to show the differences in perspectives on repairs. Again, the important thing here is to recognize that a buyer and seller look at home inspection reports differently. A seller typically wants to minimize their repair costs while keeping the home sale on track. A buyer wants to make sure that any previously unknown property condition issues are addressed in a manner that is likely to prevent further near term maintenance needs in those areas. So, what is a buyer to do? A few thoughts....
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Should You Round Your Bedroom Count Up Or Down? |
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 I tend to come at this from the "under promise, over delivery" perspective... I have been in three houses this past week where the number of bedrooms is a bit nebulous...
There are, of course, pros and cons of rounding down or up... If you round down, it is likely that every buyer that views your home will find that it has enough bedrooms -- and they'll likely be pleasantly surprised at the additional sort-of bedroom -- but you might miss out on buyers who really need that other bedroom and thus don't even consider your house based on the bedroom count. If you round up, it is likely that many buyers that view your home will be disappointed to conclude that it does not have enough functional bedrooms -- though you will likely have more buyers looking at the house in general, because of the higher bedroom count. So -- there is no perfect rule for determining whether to round up or round down when counting the bedrooms in your house -- but will likely do you well to thin about how many functional bedrooms most buyers would consider your house to have... | |
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How To Remove Cigarette Smoke Odors From A House |
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 I have shown a few houses lately to buyers where we couldn't help but notice a lingering cigarette smoke odor in the home. That smell was not the only factor that kept these buyers from making an offer on these houses -- but it certainly was a part of the discussion and decision. So how in the world do you get a pervasive cigarette smoke smell out of a house? I'm not an expert, but my understanding is that you may need to consider some or all of these techniques:
Even if you take all of those (not inexpensive) steps above, you may still have some lingering smells -- and if you do, you probably shouldn't be entirely surprised. You might then consider using an ozone generator which can help eliminate odors. If you're going this route, you'll likely want to consult with a professional. In the end -- if you are considering the purchase of a home that has a pervasive smell of cigarette smoke, don't assume that it will be easy or inexpensive to remove that odor! | |
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Will You Take Your House Off The Market Over The Winter? |
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 In some ways, NO, you should NOT take your house off the market -- because housing inventory levels have plummeted in December. And yet, still, some folks will take their homes off the market for the winter. Our local MLS requires a house to be off the market for 90 days before the "Cumulative Days on Market" statistic resets. So, if you take your house off the market today, you could put it back on the market right around March 5, 2020 and have that statistic reset. During these 90-ish days of being off the market, we will want to talk about price, condition and marketing....
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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