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Showings Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down |
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It has been hard to see the overall trajectory of showings this Spring/Summer as compared to last Spring/Summer since we have had both better and worse months of showings. Let's summarize a bit.... Mar/Apr/May 2016 as compared to Mar/Apr/May 2015 = 10% increase Jun/Jul/Aug 2016 as compared to Jun/Jul/Aug 2015 = 11% increase So, while each individual month might be better or worse than the next, it seems that showings are, overall, increasing this year as compared to last year. | |
Early Look Shows Strong Month of Contracts |
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An early look at August 2016 data shows that it was another STRONG month of buyer activity, with 127 signed contracts. This marks an 18% increase over last August -- and an increase from July 2016 as well. | |
You just have to wait your turn to sell your house, right? |
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There were 1,125 home sales during 2015 In Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....thus, an average 94 sales per month. There are currently 563 homes on the market. Thus, within 6 months (563 / 94) everybody's house will have sold, right? Kind of like I have illustrated it below? Isn't that wonderful news? Within 6 months, everybody's house will have sold! But wait -- each month, while there are homes selling (perhaps 94) there are also new listings (perhaps 94).... Thus, inventory always stays (roughly) the same, aside from seasonal ups and downs and long term shifts in inventory levels. So.....the big question, do all of the houses get in line and sell in an orderly fashion? If there are 6months of homes on the market, certainly the first ones to sell are those that have been on the market for 5 months, right? Because all homes patiently wait in line and let homes that have been on the market longer sell first, right? First come, first serve? Nope, things don't work that way in the real estate market. You don't get "your turn" when it comes to selling your house. Some houses that sell this month will have been on the market for less than a month. Some, just for two or three months. And yes, some of the homes that are currently on the market have been sitting there watching sales go by for months or even years. So, if your house is on the market, make sure you're not thinking that you will just wait your turn, and that eventually it will be your house's turn to sell. Think about (or talk to me about) what you can do to make sure your home IS one of the next 94 to sell, and doesn't continue to wait around......as the waiting could go on forever! | |
Mortgage Interest Rates Continue to Hover at Absurdly Low Levels |
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Maybe mortgage interest rates will never rise??? I have been thinking they would rise for quite a while now (years) but they just keep getting lower. Today's average rate of 3.43% is an absurdly wonderful opportunity to lock in your monthly housing costs at extremely low levels. Now, admittedly, Janet Yellen (US Federal Reserve Chair) has indicated that rates could go up soon. But until then, enjoy the low rates. If you're buying in the next 6 to 12 months, right now (or soon-ish) could be an especially opportune time to lock in your mortgage interest rates. Oh, and here are today's rates in a longer context, of the past three years.... | |
$60M MillerCoors Expansion in Elkton, VA |
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In local economic development news, the MillerCoors brewery in Elkton, Virginia has announced a $60 million expansion! This investment by Miller Coors will allow for the installation of new infrastructure to brew more beer brands and will result in 27 new jobs. Some fast facts about the Shenandoah Valley MillerCoors brewery....
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Are you considering a career in real estate? |
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Are you considering a career in real estate in the Harrisonburg area? If so, let me know if you'd like to get together at some point to discuss what it is like to work as a Realtor in this area. I love my career, and would be happy to chat with you to try to help you figure out whether it could be a good fit for you. Coffee is on me -- just email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. PS. If you don't conclude that real estate is the career for you, it might be worthwhile chatting with Kyle at HarrisonburgCareerCoaching.com for further guidance. | |
How many houses will you really be choosing from? |
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If you are entering the market to buy a home, the number of homes you will have to choose from will vary widely based on what you are looking for in a new home. Some buyers have a very narrow scope and find themselves on a prolonged hunt for what seems to be an elusive or mythical home. Some buyers find plenty of options, evaluate quite a few, make a decision and move forward with an offer. However -- keep in mind that as you consider the 547-ish homes currently on the market for sale, that some of them have been on the market for 3 months, 6 months, 9 months or even longer. The freshest of fresh listings are those that have come on in the past 30 days -- which (this time of year) is less than 100 of the 547-ish homes currently listed for sale. Depending on your time frame for buying, and the narrowness of your scope, sometimes it makes sense to quickly evaluate the current options -- and then to wait and see what new and exciting listings will be coming on the market in coming days and weeks. Steps to get started include talking to a lender to get a sense of your target price range, and then chatting with me (in person, by email, by phone) so that I can also be keeping an eye out for suitable properties for you. Learn more about the home buying process at.... | |
Are home sales trends catching up with population growth? |
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click here for a larger image The Weldon Cooper Center 2015 Population Estimates show that Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2015 Population Estimates: Harrisonburg: 53,875 Rockingham County: 79,134 Combined City/County: 133,009 (up 1% from 131,565 last year) If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that.... More people than usual bought between 2001 and 2007. (housing boom) Fewer people than usual bought between 2009 and 2012. (housing bust, and then recovery) In 2013/2014 we may have finally returned to a "normal" portion of the local population to be buying in a given year. Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,100. | |
Should I run from houses that can only be inspected for informational purposes only? |
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Sometimes a seller is stating this as soon as they list a property: All inspectors are for informational purposes only. But sometimes a seller will introduce this amidst negotiations. This can certainly trigger some warning signals for a buyer......but should it? Here are the top three innocent reasons why a seller would want a home inspection to be for informational purposes only....
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Fall is not the worst time to sell your home |
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It is, however, the second-worst time of the year to sell your home. The data above reflects the timeframe during which properties went UNDER CONTRACT -- not when they closed. Plenty of the Summer contracts turned into Fall closings -- but the 235 figure is a reflection of how many buyers made buying decisions (signed contracts) between September and November of last year. So....if you want to sell your home (and close on it) in 2016, you should be thinking about getting it on the market sooner rather than later. | |
84 out of 100 buyers are buying for less than $300K |
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Looking at home sales in the past year we find that....
Clearly, that also means that only 6% of our local market is comprised of home sales over $400K. | |
2016 Good Housekeeping Awesome Women Awards |
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A temporary, fun, diversion from real estate.... My good friend and TakeThemAMeal.com business partner, Adina Bailey, has been recognized by Good Housekeeping Magazine as one of their Awesome Women of 2016. Read more about this at Good Housekeeping, or in today's Daily News Record. | |
The brand new Massanutten Bike Park is fantastic! |
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A brand new bike park with a lift system recently opened at Massanutten Resort, and Luke and I decided to go check out this past weekend. It was a blast! Admittedly, Luke crashed on his first run, sliding off of the side of a trail and tumbled down a rocky embankment (or a cliff, as the story is told) but he didn't break any bones and we had multiple successful runs later in the day, even if at a more moderate speed. There are a variety of trails for different skill levels, and one of the most enjoyable aspects is that the ski lift will carry your bike up the mountain for you to start each run.... Read more about the new bike park via this Daily News Record article, a few excerpts of which are below.... The park features six trails along four levels of difficulties. Five are open for use and the sixth should be finished by the end of August, said Kenny Hess, Massanutten's director of sports and risk management.I expect that Luke and I will be going back again soon for another afternoon of biking and I encourage you to check it out as well. Plan your visit to the Massanutten Bike Park by checking out their hours, rates, etc. here. | |
Beautiful Home Adjoining Lake Shenandoah |
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Opportunities like these do not come along every day. A beautiful house located immediately adjacent to Lake Shenandoah has just been listed for sale..... Enjoy privacy, views and direct access to Lake Shenandoah from this well maintained Lake Pointe home with a full lower level apartment! This home offers spacious one-level living with a living room with fireplace, an eat-in kitchen, formal dining room, office, master suite, two additional bedrooms and a full bath plus an rec room (with laundry room) all on the main level. The lower level features an expansive family room with full bathroom, plenty of unfinished storage space PLUS a complete one bedroom apartment with living room, kitchen, dining area, bedroom, bathroom and clothes washer/dryer! Don't miss the immaculate, oversized garage, and the large custom-built deck looking out to the 1+ acre yard, Lake Shenandoah and Massanutten peak!Find out more about this beautiful new home by visiting the property website.... Or, by walking through the home online.... Or by reviewing the floor plans.... | |
You are most likely to sell your home in the first 60 days on the market |
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And by that I mean that that more than 50% of the homes that sold in the past year went under contract within the first 60 days that they were on the market. So, as a seller, if you are getting ready to put your house on the market, make sure you are thinking about price, condition and marketing. If your house has already been on the market for 60 days, and is not under contract, it might be time to think through....
Of course, plenty of homes (46%) go under contract after they have been on the market for 60 days -- so that is not necessarily the time to panic -- but it is a good time to pause and take inventory of where things are, making sure that you feel confident in your strategy for moving forward towards a successful sale. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
Will we see 1200 home sales this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? |
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Based on how the year is going thus far, I think we might see 1200 home sales this year. We are currently 79 home sales ahead of the 2015 pace at this time of year -- and if we add those 79 home sales to last year's 1125 home sales, we'd be just over 1200 sales for the year. The only time we have seen more than 1200 sales in a year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County was between 2003 and 2007 -- the infamous housing boom that lead to the dreaded housing bust. It seems unlikely that 1200 home sales in 2016 will be a sign of another boom (and bust) on the way -- as we are seeing much slower and steadier growth now. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
Market Balance By Price Range |
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Many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes for sale to be an indication of a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers. As such, and based on the information presented above, it would seem safe to say that....
For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
More Homes are Selling, Faster, at Higher Prices in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 580 Spring Oaks Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview below, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... Now, let's take a look at the overall market performance in July.... A few things jump out at me when looking at the chart above....
July could be seen as a disappointment in some ways. We didn't see sky high home sales, towering over all previous months of July. We only saw a tiny 1.85% increase in sales as compared to July 2015. But wait -- before we become too glum about the 110 home sales in July, let's not forget the record breaking months of sales that we saw in May and June! Just for fun, let's look at May through July home sales for the past few years....
So, yes, I think we can be satisfied with the 110 home sales we saw in July 2016 given the slightly larger context. The graph above is somewhat complicated, but very important as to an understanding of our local housing market. The green "SELLERS" trajectory is showing the number of homeowners trying to sell their homes. The blue "BUYERS" trajectory shows the number of buyers closing on the purchase of homes in a six month period. This graph, therefor, is a good indication of overall market balance in our local housing market, as many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes for sale to be a sign of a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers. As shown above, after many years, we finally saw these trajectories cross last month. That is to say that there are now more buyers buying in a six month period than there are sellers selling. As such, if we've been approaching a balanced market for the past year, it is now definitely "in balance" -- even if that varies some from price range to price range. Taking a look at buyer activity in the form of signed contracts, we see that July was another relatively strong month with 119 contracts signed -- as compared to 118 last July. Put in a slightly larger context, we have seen an average of 136 contracts per month over the past five months -- as compared to an average of only 117 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. One of the ways that we have achieved the market balance illustrated above is by a reduction in the number of homes for sale. As the graph above indicates, we have seen a 15% decline in inventory levels over the past year. Thus, buyers a year ago had 644 homes to choose from -- and today can only choose from 549 properties. OK, let's cut off my ramblings about our local market there for now. There is a lot more more in my full real estate market report, but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. I'll continue to delve into the latest trends on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com over the next few days, but if you just can't wait, feel free to read the entire report online....
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Housing costs stay relatively level despite increasing home values |
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How much does it cost on a monthly basis to buy the median price home in our area, assuming 80% financing? Today, that adds up to an $681 monthly payment -- which is right in the same ballpark as what we've seen for the past two years ($850, $856). How can housing costs be staying relatively level if home values are increasing? Well, it's the declining mortgage interest rates, of course! The graph above shows how much you would pay in a monthly payment for each of the past 16 years if you financed 80% of the purchase price at the average interest rate for that year. These payments include an estimate for your insurance costs, and property taxes based on Harrisonburg's current rate of $0.80 per $100 of assessed value. Another pretty wild perspective -- over the past 16 years, housing costs (understood as outlined above) have only increased by 9.6%. | |
Should you list your home in August, September or October? |
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Generally speaking, you should list your home sooner rather than later. As shown above, we are likely to see a declining number of buyers signing contracts over the next few months. August is always the busiest month of buyer activity, then September, then October. That said, there are only 26% fewer contracts signed in October (on average) as compared to August, so it is not a drastic slowdown. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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