As a buyer, when you are walking through a home, keep in mind that the seller might be listening.  These days, there are plenty of ways that a seller could be monitoring their home, with a security camera, or other recording device that could allow them to hear every word you are saying while you are in their house.

So.....

1.  Don't insult their house.  It won't help during negotiations.

2.  Don't discuss negotiations.  You might be revealing your strategy.

By the way, sellers, it may not be legal for you to record conversations in your home while you are gone.  You should likely either NOT record conversations, or disclose that it is taking place.
 
P.S.  I am not an attorney.  Consult one if you want an actual legal opinion.  Ask me if you need a recommendation.
 

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Harrisonburg City Council has agreed to further explore an unsolicited proposal to build a downtown park from Build Our Park, a community-led nonprofit organization committed to facilitating the creation of a public park in downtown Harrisonburg.

Full disclosure - I serve on the board of Build Our Park.



This new downtown park would be built on 1.2 acres of City-owned property directly adjacent to the Harrisonburg Farmers Market pavilion and the City Hall Building parking lot, featuring amenities including:

• Second Pavilion
• Village Green
• Discovery Playground
• Splash Fountains
• Donor Garden, Wall and Fountain
• Grand Promenade
• Set up for Portable Stage
• Pergolas, tables and seating
• Atrium Plaza
• Multiple unique activity spaces
• Landscaping featuring native trees and flora
• Sustainably designed park amenities with educational signage
• One-eighth-mile multi-use path (that can one day link the Northend Greenway and the Bluestone Trail)

View renderings of the conceptual design for this downtown park.

During the next 45 days, City staff will review the proposed project and can receive additional competing proposals for building this downtown park. After 45 days, the City will decide to either proceed with the second review stage or to not proceed further with the proposal. If the City ultimately decides to work with Build Our Park on the project, they will enter into a comprehensive agreement where details will be determined regarding potential bonds, insurance, and terms and conditions.

A group of Harrisonburg stakeholders formed in 2013 with the goal of facilitating the creation of a public park in downtown Harrisonburg. Originally known as Plan Our Park, the group rebranded and formed the nonprofit organization Build Our Park. In 2017, in order to balance parking needs and the desire for a community recreation amenity, the City directed Build Our Park to redesign its park concept to fit in the space behind City Hall between the Turner Pavilion and the tree line south of the Pavilion. Local architects who are members of the Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance Design Committee, Adam Steiniger of Eugene Stoltzfus Architects and Randy Seitz of Blue Ridge Architects, volunteered to create the final concept design plan that the PPEA proposes.

The Build Our Park Board of Directors has been working with City staff to plan the park's new design and would continue to work with them to plan the park's construction as well as on-going maintenance and operations. During this process, fundraising for the park has been on hold. On April 18, the organization looks forward to restarting its fund- raising effort in conjunction with The Community Foundation's Great Community Give. The Great Community Give is a single day of giving aimed at promoting charitable giving in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Through this initiative, the entire community will be invited to support Build Our Park and other nonprofits that meet needs, enrich lives, and build a community we can all enjoy.

As Harrisonburg's downtown continues its reemergence as a dynamic environment in which to live, work, eat and shop, the thoughts of many have turned to the need for more public green space for gathering in the City's core. The downtown park's concept features a multi-use path, expanded pavilion, open space, play area designed to resemble nature, pergolas for shade, and splash fountains. It will incorporate the area adjacent to the Turner Pavilion that currently is used for community programming and events. The park would be designed to be flexible to accommodate a growing farmers market, public events, community gatherings, and wellness.

Learn more about this potential future downtown park at BuildOurPark.org.

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It's exciting if your home value is increasing, right?  Well -- mostly, it seems.

Certainly, if you bought your home for $250K and it is now worth $260K or $270K or even $300K -- that can be a good thing.  At some point in the future, you'll recoup that equity when you sell your home -- plus or minus any shifts in value between now and then.

But in the near-term, increasing home values can actually hurt a bit. 

The amount of real estate taxes that a homeowner pays to their locality (city, county) are based on two factors -- the assessed value of the home, and the local real estate tax rate.

In Rockingham County, the current real estate tax rate is $0.74 per $100 of assessed value....



Tomorrow, the Rockingham County Board of Supervisors will hold a public hearing to receive input before adopting a real estate tax rate for fiscal year 2019 -- which runs from July 1, 2018 through June 30, 2019.

But here's the thing -- even if the tax rate remains the same (at $0.74) there are many homeowners who will see an increase in their real estate taxes -- because of increases in home values, and thus increases in assessed values.

Rockingham County revises their property assessments once every four years -- and the most recent increase resulted in a 2% increase in the assessed value of an average home. 

This is good news for the County, as the increase in property values, even with no change in the real estate tax rate, will likely generate over $2 million in additional tax revenue.

It is sort of good news for County property owners -- because it means your property value is (likely) increasing -- but it is also potentially bad news, as your tax bill will likely be increasing.

To put some numbers to it:

• The median sales price of homes in Rockingham County over the past 12 months was $212,500.
   
• Assessed values are typically a bit low in the County, but we'll ignore than fact, and pretend that a house that sold for $212,500 is also assessed at $212,500.
   
• A home assessed at $212,500 would pay $1,572.50 per year in real estate taxes.
   
• A 2% increase in the value of a median priced home would be an increase of $4,250.
   
• The resulting increase in real estate taxes would be $31.45 per year.
  

If you're interested in attending the public hearing, it will be held at 7:00 PM on Wednesday, March 28th at the Rockingham County Administration Center, located at 20 East Gay Street, Harrisonburg, VA 22802.

And -- you can both celebrate and mourn the news that property values are increasing, and that your real estate tax bill likely will be as well.
 

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(Post updated afternoon of 3/26/2018 with additional notes per the second phase of the East Campus residence hall -- thanks Matt Phillippi)

The updated Master Plan for James Madison University offers a fascinating read as to the future plans of this institution that is a central part of Harrisonburg.  Download the full master plan here.

One area of interest from a housing perspective is JMU's analysis of current housing offerings and demand.



As shown above....

• Current on-campus housing includes 6,944 beds -- including a new East Campus residence hall (500 beds) currently under construction to open in Fall 2019.
  
  
• Projected Full Time Enrollment is 23,471 -- at an unknown date.
   
• JMU would like to house 35% of their students on campus -- which would be 8,215 students based on the projection of 23,471 FTE.
   
• Current housing (with the new residence hall) shows a shortage of 1,271 beds for students.
   
• The Master Plan identifies nine residence halls (in "the Village" area) that are in poor condition and need to be demolished -- and Chandler Hall will be torn down to make room for an expanded College of Business facility. 
   
• Eliminating these 10 residence halls reduces the beds by 1,991 students -- at which point JMU will only have 4,953 on campus beds for their projected demand of 8,215 students.
   
• The nine residence halls at The Village currently house 1,748 students.  The Master Plan recommends a new "Village Housing" complex to replace these residence halls -- which would be (6) separate 4-story residence halls housing a total of 2,800 students.
   
• The new East Campus residence hall with 500 beds -- currently under construction -- is only half of the planned East Campus residence hall.  An additional 500 beds will be added at some point in the future.
   
  
• In summary -- 6944 current beds (including residence hall under construction), minus 1991 demolished beds (Village + Chandler), plus 2800 new beds (in the Village), plus 500 new beds (East Campus residence hall phase 2), equals 8253 beds -- which meets the target of 8215 beds.
   
• Also of interest, today there are 6444 students living in "on campus" residence halls if you subtract out the new 500 bed East Campus residence hall that is being built -- compared to the 8215 students intended to live in campus at some future point -- whenever the FTE enrollment gets to 23,471.
  

New layout of Village area residence halls....

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In the past 12 months -- properties in the City of Harrisonburg have sold with a median "days on market" of 18 days!?!  That is fast!!  Perhaps faster than the speeding train shown above -- which, if it does in fact travel through Harrisonburg, must do so at speeds so fast that none of us see it.  :-)

The "days on market" metric measures the number of days between when a property is listed for sale and when it is under contract.  Median indicates that half of all homes that sold were under contract in less than 18 days and half took more than 18 days.  So -- of the 415 home sales in the past year, more than 200 of them were under contract within 18 days.  Wow!

So, then, let's say you list your home for sale in the City of Harrisonburg.

And then Day 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18 pass.

It is now Day 19.  Hmmm.  How do you feel?  How should you feel?

Is your price too high?  Has the market cooled?  Will your home ever sell?

Maybe. Probably not. Probably.

A few thoughts...

• It is possible that your price is too high - but we cannot conclude that based on the lack of a contract within 18 days.
   
• The size of the buyer pool that would consider your property (based on price, size, location, etc.) will greatly affect whether your home sells above or below that median of 18 days.
   
• When we're just 18 days in, don't look at the lack of a sale as the best indicator of whether your price is appropriate -- look at recent sales and competing listings.
   
• What time of year is it?  The pace of buying activity certainly ebbs and flows through the year, so if it is the "off season" it might take longer for your home to sell.
   
• New buyers on Day 19+ won't consider your home to be a home that has been rejected by all other buyers.  Maybe after 90 or 180 days they might....

So, as Day 19 comes and goes, don't (necessarily) despair.  It is certainly a good idea to constantly evaluate how your home price fits into the market, but just because your home did not sell as quickly as half of the homes in the past year does not necessarily mean that the price is too high.

 

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If a buyer is buying over $400K, or even over $300K, the layout of the home becomes very important to them.  That is not to say that it is unimportant for a $200K buyer -- but someone buying a more expensive home oftentimes plans to stay in it for a longer time frame.

If not the #1 feedback, the #2 feedback I receive from showings of homes priced over $400K is that the layout just didn't work for the buyers....

• They wanted another bedroom here, instead of there. 
  
• They wanted a more open floor plan. 
  
• They wanted more of a formal dining room. 
  
• They wanted a more spacious basement. 
  
• This room is a bit too big. 
  
• That room is a bit too small. 
  
• They don't like how close this room is (or is not) to that room. 
  
• And on and on.

Challengingly, the layout is something that is hard (nearly impossible) for a seller to change in order to appeal to a wider segment of buyers.  Thus, if your home has a layout that continues to not work for buyer after buyer, you must either wait (and potentially wait and wait and wait) for the buyer who loves that layout -- or adjust the list price to make the house (even with its layout) more appealing to more buyers. 
  

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Back in 2015, Lakeview decided to sell off as much as 75 acres of their land, moving from a 36 hole golf course to a 27 hole golf course.  Many (myself included) speculated that this land would be purchased by a developer or builder as the land is located in the midst of many upper end single family home neighborhoods.

We were all wrong.

Fifty acres (as shown above) were sold by Lakeview to Sunnyside Retirement Community in January 2017, for $1.2M.  So, it seems, you will not see new roads going in and houses built in that area in the near future.

But now we know a bit more what Sunnyside is planning for this newly acquired land.

Sunnyside plans to add 28 acres of the newly acquired land to their master plan, to include:

• 12 single family detached homes
• 26 villas
• 2100 SF for a cafe
• Memory care and health care center
• Clubhouse and wellness center
• Welcome center and corporate offices
  

Download the rezoning request packet or check out the master plan....

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Mortgage interest rates are edging up again, as you may have heard.  The average 30 year fixed rate at the end of February was 4.4% -- up from 3.9% just three months prior. 

Could this (slight) rise in the cost of financing your home be affecting the pace at which buyers are signing contracts?  Possibly.

It seems that 14% more buyers signed contracts this January and February as compared to last year during the same timeframe.

This is a likely indicator that we'll see stronger months of closed sales in March and April. 

Then, the questions will be....

• Will the pace of contract activity keep increasing?
   
• Will mortgage interest rates keep increasing?

Let's hope for yes and no, in that order.

 

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Find out about this newly listed (today!) City home at 1173PortlandDrive.com.

I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...



OK -- now, let's dig into some of the main market metrics....



As shown above....

1. Home sales were up 16% in February -- with 80 home sales this February compared to 69 last February.
    
2. This piled on top of the slightly slower sales in January to mark a 3% YTD increase in the pace of home sales.
    
3. The annual pace of home sales has actually slowed over the past year -- showing a 4% decline to 1,265 home sales per year.
    
4. The median sales price has increased 4% over the past year to $199,900.  Oh so close to $200K!
    
5. The median number of days it takes for a home to sell has dropped 21% in January/February to 42 days as compared to 53 days last January/February.
    
6. Over the past year, the median days on market has dropped 35% to 32 days!
    
   

January 2018 wasn't the best January in the past few years, though it wasn't the worst either.  It was in the middle of the pack, as shown above.  February, however, was a strong month of sales -- jumping out ahead past the past three months of February.  It seems likely we'll see between 90 and 100 home sales in March.

The graph above is actually a bit of a warning against too much exuberance over the BEST January-February combo we've seen in any recent year.  Because, look carefully at last year -- you'll note that 2017 home sales were ahead of 2016 all the way through the end of July.  So, for the first seven months of the year, it looked like we were poised to break even more records for the number of home sales in this area.  And then in August and September of last year, we fell behind, and never caught back up.  So -- it is exciting to see record numbers of sales in the combined first two months of this year -- but it in no way means that we'll see an actual increase in annual sales by the time December 31 rolls around.

Having now brought you down to earth, I'll pump you up again.  :-)  The 85 and then 90 contracts seen in January/February of 2018 is a nice increase from last January/February when we saw 67 and then 87 contracts.  So -- the faster (closed) sales pace may at least continue into March, and maybe April given the contracts signed to date.

Oh yes, and don't forget about those sinking inventory levels.  The decline in home sales we saw in our local market in 2017 is considered by many to have been at least partially caused by consistent declines in the number of homes listed for sale.  We have seen inventory levels drop for the past few years -- and the 27% decline from 402 homes to 295 homes over the past 12 months certainly does not help provide enough homes for an increasing pool of buyers to purchase.  We should (??!??) see an increase in these inventory levels as we get into the Spring market -- but that theoretical increase never substantially materialized last year.

All of these market trends are tied up together, intertwined and interdependent upon each other.  Here is another.  One out of every two homes that sold in the past year (ok -- I rounded -- 49% if you need to know) went under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale.  This low inventory environment is causing buyers to be extremely fast to view and then consider homes as they are listed for sale.

OK -- I'll stop there for now.  Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or keep reading my blog in the coming days for further commentary.

AND -- if you're thinking of buying or selling soon ---

SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing.

BUYERS -- it can be difficult and frustrating to buy right now -- make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings!

For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

And if you are ready to get the process started, simply contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

Happy March!

 

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Some people like to see lots of photographs. Others prefer to read the written description of a home and review the pertinent facts and figures. And yes, some folks best understand a home by studying the floor plan.

I can create a "blueprint" of your home to satisfy the desires of this third group of buyers, who are spatial (and special) beings.

Read about all of the ways we can market your home by visiting....

SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
 

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Preparing your home to go on the market can be challenging (and tiring), and often sellers-to-be need a second (or third) set of eyes to provide suggestions about where to focus their time and energy.  There are many different theories about how to best prepare your home to be on the market and viewed by buyers --- and ways of expressing those theories. 

• take a minimalistic approach, removing absolutely every knick knack in sight
• removing all family photos
• de-cluttering and get rid of extra "stuff"
• remove furniture to create an open feel
• stage the home with place settings on the dining table, and more
• always have fresh flowers in the home

There are countless other theories, ideas or suggestions -- all of which can be helpful to consider as you are preparing to put your house on the market.  Another perspective that I'd throw out there for your consideration is eliminating distractions and objections.

Distractions are the things that keep a prospective buyer from focusing on your house.  That might be knick knacks, or family photos, or refrigerator magnets, or an overflowing pantry, or fascinating artwork, or an abundance of indoor plants, or a strange odor, or brightly colored wall hangings.  Whatever it is --- if a buyer is focusing on one (or more) of these items, they're not focusing on your house.  They're reading all of the Far Side comics on the fridge instead of marveling at the granite countertops, tile back splash, recessed lighting, and stainless steel appliances.  They're amazed at how you fit 234 board games into the coat closet instead of taking in the quality workmanship of the trim detail in the foyer, and the mountain views out the picture window in the family room.  As you prepare your home to go on the market, close your eyes for a few moments when standing at the entrance to each main living area.  Then, open your eyes, and take note of where your eyes are immediately drawn.  Or, walk slowly through the space (or ask a friend to help) seeing where your eyes (and your mind) linger.

Objections are those correctable physical characteristics of your home that give a buyer a reason to mark your home off their list, or to move it down a notch in their preferences.  Perhaps it is that the vinyl siding needs to be power washed, or that three bi-fold closet doors need to be adjusted, or that there is poor lighting in the kitchen, or that the deck needs staining.  There are oftentimes small home maintenance items that should be attended to before putting your home on the market.  There are two potential dangers of having these items unresolved --- first, a buyer might become too overwhelmed by the work that they need to do to the home once they move in, and second, a buyer might extrapolate from what they can see to imagine what they cannot.  A classic example of this is the dirty furnace filter that makes a buyer assume that the HVAC system has never been serviced, is in a terrible state of disrepair, and will need to be replaced immediately. 

As you're preparing your house to go on the market, I'm happy to provide you with another set of eyes and to give you some new perspectives on how to best prepare your home to be shown to buyers.  When you're ready, just give me a call (540-578-0102) or send me an e-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com).  Also, don't fret about having your home in perfect "show condition" before you call me --- I'm happy to give you some guidance and feedback while you're still in the process of preparing your home to go on the market.
 

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Straight from Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance....

Downtown Restaurants are pulling out all of the stops this week! They're serving up fresh, innovative menus and one-of-a-kind restaurant collaborations. Take a look at the menu items, meet the amazing chefs, and circle back to book a future food tour with Rocktown Bites!

Learn more about Harrisonburg Restaurant Week and get downtown to enjoy it yourself!.
 

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Many sellers list their homes in the Spring or Summer, which is often ideal for the timing of their move, and aligns well with when most buyers are in the market.

However -- some houses are very difficult to be seen (and photographed) in the Spring and Summer because of large trees in the front yard.

So -- if you're thinking of selling this Spring or Summer, and you have trees (especially large house-obscuring trees) we should discuss taking some exterior photos SOON rather than waiting until later when we can't see your house at all.

Certainly, the grass isn't as green as it could be right now, and the flowers aren't blooming -- but it could be nice to see your house in the main view of your future real estate listing -- rather than just a tree.
  

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Wood is just one component of a new home -- but it is a rather central component, and increases in the price of lumber can and will eventually impact the prices of new homes in our local market. 

Just how much have lumber prices increased?  Try more than 50% over the past 14 months!  The chart above shows the increases over the past year from below $350 (per 1000 board feet) a year ago to over $500 today.

Why have lumber prices been increasing?

1. Wildfires in Canada in July 2017 started to restrict the supply of lumber.
    
2. A trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada further restricted supply.
    
3. A shortage of railcars and trucks had made it more expensive to transport lumber.
    
4. The new home market is heating up, increasing the demand for lumber.

Read more about rising lumber prices at the Wall Street Journal....

With Lumber in Short Supply, Record Wood Costs Are Set to Juice Home Prices

Only time will tell how much these increases in lumber costs will affect new home pricing in this area.  Stay tuned!

 

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Here's one thing I have found to be true of most buyers....

As the price of a home increases, so does a buyer's desire for that home to be a wonderful fit for their needs and wants, both now and in the future.

And it makes sense --

1.  If you're buying an expensive (fill in your own definition here) home then you are likely to be planning to stay for a while, and thus the home should work quite well for you.

2.  If you're buying an expensive home, it is a major investment (or more major than if it was a less expensive home) and thus you want to make sure the home is exactly what you want.

3.  If you're buying an expensive-ish home you could probably also consider building a home -- which would give you exactly what you want in a house -- so the resale home you are considering better come darn close to that ideal.

Anyhow -- this is just what I consider to be a reality of buyers considering the purchase of higher end homes.  Some of the resulting implications are....

1.  Buyers of expensive homes often spend more time in the home search process -- waiting for "the right" home to come along.
 
2.  Sellers of expensive homes should expect to hear "it just wasn't a good fit" quite a bit when asking what buyers thought after viewing the house.
 
3.  Buyers of expensive homes are typically willing to be very patient in waiting for the ideal fit, as it is a big investment.

4.  Sellers of expensive homes sometimes have to sell for less than they feel their home is or should be worth -- if there aren't any buyers (over a prolonged time period) for whom the house is an ideal fit.

Oh, and one last note, this correlation between price and pickiness does not necessarily extend in both directions.  Buyers of lower priced homes are not universally non-picky or hasty to buy or overly willing to compromise.
 

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