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Are $150K - $250K Detached Homes Available in the City of Harrisonburg? |
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![]() HINT -- this is a bit of a trick question. Again.... Are $150K - $250K Detached Homes Available in the City of Harrisonburg? Ignore the graph above for a moment -- and let's see what we find.... There are only 15 detached homes currently on the market in the City of Harrisonburg priced between $150K and $250K. Wow! At first blush, this is (or seems to be) very significant. One might conclude that we are seeing a significant under supply of these "mid-priced" homes in the City of Harrisonburg, and assume that this under supply is causing very few of these homes to actually sell. But wait -- looking further (now you may refer to the graph above, thank you for your patience) it seems that plenty of these homes are actually selling. In fact, 130 detached homes between $150K and $250K sold in the City of Harrisonburg last year. The tricky part is this -- if 130 buyers are buying per year, that's an average of 10.83 buyers per month. And thus, if there are only 15 such homes on the market, that is a 1.4 month (42 day) supply of homes for sale. Which is -- rather absurdly low. Most folks consider a six month supply to provide a balanced market between buyers and sellers. So -- yes, homes are SELLING between $150K and $250K -- but they aren't widely AVAILABLE at any given point. When they come on the market, they sell quickly! A few other observations....
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5.5% Increase in Year Over Year Median Sales Price |
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![]() OK -- a slightly complicated headline -- let's break that down.... Looking at home sales over the past 12 months (Sep 2016 - Aug 2017) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- the median sales price was $196,500. Looking at home sales in the 12 months before that (Sep 2015 - Aug 2016) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- the median sales price was $186,250. As such, we have seen a 5.5% year-over-year increase in the median sales price in our local area. That is accompanied by a 3.3% year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales -- from 1244 sales/year to 1285 sales/year. Read a lot more about our local housing market in my post from earlier this week: Housing Market Slows (but prices rise) in August 2017. ![]() | |
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Housing Market Slows (but prices rise) in August 2017 |
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![]() Find out more about the home shown above, with detached garage and apartment, here. As Geoffrey Chaucer put it - "all good things must come to an end" -- and August 2017 is when the "more and more home sales, every month, for ever and ever" came to an end in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. OF NOTE -- this could be a temporary end, and it might be more about a lack of seller supply than a lack of buyer demand -- but I'm getting ahead of myself. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() OK, now, if you're still reading after that super easy opportunity to just listen to me explain the entire market to you, here is some further context and explanation for you.... ![]() As shown above (#1), there was a significant (26.58%) decline in August home sales this year as compared to last year. This lead to (#2) an overall decline in year-to-date sales of 3.19% when comparing 2016 to 2017. Despite this slowdown in the pace of sales, the median sales price (#3) is still increasing year-over-year at a pace of 3.68% to the current level of $197,000. Furthermore, the pace at which homes are selling (#4) continues to accelerate -- with a 37.25% decline in median days on market over the past year. So --- slightly fewer homes are selling... faster... at higher prices. ![]() So -- here is the pretty (not pretty) picture of the difference between last year's SOARING month of 158 home sales in August 2016 -- and in comparison, the LOWLY month of 116 home sales in August 2017. Apparently, 158 home sales in the month of August is NOT the norm -- perhaps it was the result of a slow July 2016? AND -- if it is any consolation, the 116 home sales seen in August 2017 is within the range of two of the last three months of August. Hmmm....still hard to get excited about only 116 home sales in August! ![]() Here's another visual example of how things have changed -- every month thus far this year we have been "ahead" of 2016 home sales -- until August. We've now fallen behind (by 3%) and we only have four months to catch back up to match the overall pace of home sales in 2016. I suppose it is worth noting that there was a massive 16.7% increase in home sales between 2015 and 2016 -- so if we fall slightly short this year, it will still mark significant net growth in the pace of home sales as compared to 2014 and 2015. ![]() OK -- maybe I was looking for a bright spot amidst a so-so month of real estate news -- but here you go! As shown above, the median sales price of single family homes has risen 18% over the past three years! Of note -- we're close (but not quite there) to getting back up to the all-time high for our area's annual median sales price for single family homes -- which was $226,800 back in 2006. ![]() OK -- back to the not-quite-as-peppy news -- contracts were down in August as compared to last August. In fact, looking at summer (June, July, August) contracts -- there were only 340 of them signed this year, as compared to 377 last year. Possible explanations for this decline in contract activity include:
![]() Indeed, as shown above, buyers today have 27% fewer options of homes to purchase in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to one year ago -- and 36% fewer homes to choose from as compared to inventory levels two years ago. This decline in inventory is likely playing a role in the slight (3%) year-over-year decline we are seeing in home sales in this area. OK -- I'll stop there for now. I will continue to explore the latest trend in our local housing market in the coming days on my blog. Until then -- feel free to download and read my full market report as a PDF, or read the entire report online. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Single Family City Homes Under $200K (even $300K) in Short Supply |
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![]() Some of these numbers are hard to fathom.... [1] Even though (65) single family homes sold between $100K and $200K in the City in the past year -- there are only (5) such homes available for purchase today!?! [2] Likewise, even though (83) single family homes between $200K and $300K sold in the past year, only (17) are available today. [3] The under $100K market is largely gone for single family homes in the City -- no surprise there. [4] While not shown specifically above (additional math required) a full 79% of single family home buyers in the City in the past year spent less than $300K. [5] Only 9% of City single family home buyers spent over $400K. | |
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Harrisonburg Area High End Home Sales |
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![]() High end ($500K+) home sales slowed slightly in 2016 (25 sales) as compared to 2015 (29 sales) -- but it seems likely that this price range will rebound to those 2015 levels in 2017. With another four months of sales to go, it seems likely that we will see at least seven (and maybe more?) sales over $500K. In fact, there are currently three homes over $500K under contract. ![]() Home sales over $600K, however, are another story. Looking back, 2015 was an incredible year of sales for this price range -- with 19 sales -- higher than any other year in the past ten years! While we will likely see more sales this year (9 so far) than last year (12 total) it does not seem we will match the 19 sales seen in 2015. ![]() Finally -- the $700K+ price range -- where we seem to have returned to normal-ish levels in 2016/2017. Looking back, it is quite astounding that 11 of these homes sold in 2015 -- this was far and above the amount of $700K+ home sales we had seen in a single year since all the back in 2007. | |
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Price Per Square Foot Steadily Rising |
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![]() The price per square foot of homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has been steadily increasing over the past six years....
That said -- while the median sales price ($223K) has nearly climbed backup to the high we saw in 2006 ($227K) -- the median price per square foot ($118) has actually not come anywhere closer to that 2006 high ($129). Which would seem to mean that you're getting slightly more house for your money now (as compared to 10-11 years ago) even if you're paying a similar price. | |
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This is not a balanced real estate market |
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![]() Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 2016, these two trajectories crossed, and there was no turning back. There are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- creating a seller's market. Instead of having a six month supply of homes for sale, we now have a four (3.95) month supply. Of note -- it is not a seller's market in every price range, in every location, for every property type -- but overall, we are definitely seeing a seller's market. Find out more about our local housing market by clicking below for my monthly market report. ![]() | |
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Home Sales Steady, Prices Rising in Harrisonburg Area |
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![]() The beautiful home shown above is located in Kentshire Estates. Find out more here. July 2017 has come and gone -- and even if the temperatures don't yet feel like August -- that last month of summer is really upon us. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() You'll find that the video is in a new format this month, which I think you'll find much more helpful. Let me know. (click above to watch it) And now, a few items on our overall housing market.... ![]() As shown above, home sales slowed, ever so slightly, in July 2017 -- to 114 sales, as compared to 115 last July. Home sales for the entire first seven months of the year, however, remained strong, at 731 home sales -- an increase of 1.39% over the pace of last year's home sales. Also of note, the median sales price has increased 2.41% over the past year, to a price of $195,600 --- and homes are selling 19% faster this year, in a median of 42 days. ![]() And....where do we go from here? We saw strong home sales in May and June -- but then a decline in July that put us in the middle of the pack as far as a typical July. Now, though, will we see a huge bump like last August? Or will home sales stay relatively steady, or even decline, in August? ![]() Based on the slowing rate of buyers signing contracts (shown above) I'm guessing we'll won't see a big upward spike in home sales in August. And perhaps, the slightly slower sales we're starting to see this year is a result of continually declining inventory levels.... ![]() While we did see a slight upward tick in our inventory levels in July, overall, buyers still have significantly fewer options when buying in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. And what does an increasing demand and decreasing supply lead to? ![]() First of all, homes are selling quickly! Over half of the homes that sold in the past year went under contract within 60 days of being listed for sale. Actually, almost half of them (44%) went under contract in less than 30 days!?! ![]() And, not only are homes selling faster, they are selling at higher prices as a result of more buyers and fewer sellers. The median sales price of single family homes has been increasing in recent years, which is likely at least in part due to more buyers buying and fewer sellers selling. Will we see another 5% or 7% increase in this median sales price this year? Only time will tell - but my money is on a 4% - 5% increase. There are actually quite a few astonishing tidbits in this month's report, but I'll get into those in the coming days on my blog. Until then -- feel free to download and read my full market report as a PDF, or read the entire report online. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Home Buying Pace Slower This July Than Last |
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![]() 16% fewer buyers signed contracts in July 2017 as compared to July 2016. It's hard to say if this is related to lower buyer interest (I doubt it) or lower inventory levels (I suspect it). I suspect we will still end up seeing just as many home sales in 2017 as we saw in 2016 -- but I don't think we'll see a significant increase in the number of homes selling this year. | |
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Thank Goodness Home Prices Are Not Increasing Very Quickly! |
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![]() There have been two very unique four year periods in recent history where the local median sales price increased to $192K. When home values increased between 2003 and 2006 up to a high of $192,983 -- they did so by increasing by 13% - 17% per year!! As we now know, this was NOT sustainable! Household income was not increasing at that same rate during that timeframe, house prices became too high for many to afford, and we experienced a significant market correction downturn. In contrast, over the past four years our median sales price has increased by 1% - 4% per year up to last year's level of $192,500. This seems like MUCH more sustainable growth and provides hope that today's home prices are stable and will continue to slowly increase over time. | |
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Contract Activity Slows, Slightly, in First Half of 2017 |
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![]() As shown above, fewer buyers (696) signed contracts in the first half of 2017 as compared to the first half of 2016 when 718 buyers signed contracts to buy homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Based on all of the conversations I have had with buyers, lenders and Realtors, this is likely primarily a result of low inventory levels. The buyers are there -- ready to buy -- the sellers (and their homes) are not. Of course, there are homes listed for sale right now, but quite a few less than we'd normally see at this time of year, which leaves many buyers on the sidelines -- with the desire to buy, but without a house for sale that is a good fit for them. | |
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Where Have All The Townhouses Gone? Buyers Have Bought Them Every One! |
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![]() OK, admittedly, there are still SOME townhouses remaining to be purchased in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- but the inventory levels are declining relatively quickly. In fact, there are now just 68 townhouses (and duplexes and condos) for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which is a 59% decline from two years ago. Wow! Some part of this is that buyer demand is increasing -- and the situation also isn't helped by the very small number of new townhouses that are being built these days. Over the past 10-15 years we saw many new townhouse developments that (at the time) fell into that price range, including:
Now, however, there are significantly fewer options available when it comes to newly built townhouses in or near Harrisonburg, under $200K....
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Significant Decline in Number of Houses for Sale in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() Are you having difficulty finding a home to purchase in the City of Harrisonburg? You're likely not alone! As shown above, there has been a rather significant decline in the number of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg over the past two years -- in fact, inventory levels have fallen 58% over the past two years!! As such, if you're buying a home in City (or if you're going to try) you must know the market, know the process, know your buying power, and closely monitor new listings! Learn more about our local real estate market via my most recent monthly market report.... ![]() You can download the full report as a PDF or read the entire report online. | |
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Home Sales Steady in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County in First Half of 2017 |
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![]() Check out fantastic home for sale on Central Avenue! June 2017 flew by like a blur -- and although home sales were a bit slower than in May 2017 -- nearly all housing market indicators are still showing signs of a robust and active local real estate market. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() OK -- now, back to a high level overview of where things are with the local real estate market.... ![]() As shown above, most market indicators are looking good....
![]() As you can see, above, home sales dropped from 148 in May to 134 in June this year -- but last year, they increased from 133 in May to 152 in June. It is hard to say why this trajectory is reversed this year -- it may have to do with when sellers happened to be ready to sell, and when buyers happened to be ready to buy this year as compared to last year. Regardless, the net change from last year to this year is a decline of only three home sales when combining May and June data. Looking forward, I believe we'll see a further decline in closings in July, or at least that is what has happened in most recent years. Unless contract activity convinces us otherwise.... ![]() Looking at when buyers are signing contracts, it is notable that we have seen a steady stream of buyers (132 - 140 per month) over the past four months. This is a total of 542 contracts signed in the past four months -- as compared to 560 last year during the same timeframe. As we move forward, we should have at least two more months of 100+ contracts before contract activity inevitably starts to slow in September and October. And what are all of these buyers choosing from when they contract on a home? ![]() It seems that buyers are choosing from fewer and fewer homes these days! Inventory levels have been hovering around 400 homes for sale over the past six months -- and the normal influx of new listings in the Spring selling market has not been able to keep pace with a higher level of buyers buying homes. As such, we have not seen the typical increases in inventory levels between the Winter and Spring market -- there are actually FEWER homes on the market now than there were this past February! OK - now for a shocking statistic of the month.... ![]() Did you catch that, above, in yellow? When looking at the homes that sold in the City of Harrisonburg during June 2017 -- the median "days on market" for those home sales was 8 DAYS!?! So, half of the homes that sold went under contract within 8 days of being listed for sale. Wow! I guess that's what you get with increasing buyer demand and decreasing inventory levels. There are actually quite a few astonishing tidbits in this month's report, but I'll get into those in the coming days on my blog. Until then -- feel free to download and read my full market report as a PDF, or read the entire report online. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Contract Activity Strong(er) Again in June 2017 |
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![]() Well, things don't seem to be slowing down yet in our local residential real estate market! Looking at the first 25 days of this month, 109 buyers (and sellers) signed contracts to by (and sell) homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Comparatively, only 104 buyers (and sellers) did so in the same timeframe last year. So -- the pace of contracts is somewhat slower this month than last month (as is typical), but this June is more active than last June. More sales -- fewer listings -- it is somewhat surprising that we haven't seen more of a upward shift in sales price! | |
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Have you missed out on the majority of 2017 home buyers at this point? |
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![]() Short answer -- yes, but no. :) Longer answer.... In a recent conversation with a home seller, they wondered if they had missed out on the best time to sell their home since they wouldn't be ready to get their house on the market until July 1. Let's take a look at what last year looked like from the perspective of when buyers signed contracts to purchase homes. Based on the graph above....
As usual -- every segment of the market (based on price, location, property type) is a bit different -- so let me know if you want to chat more specifically about your home, and what it would look like to list your home for sale in the coming month to be aiming for one of these late-summer / early-fall buyers. | |
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58% Drop in Under $200K Listing Inventory |
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![]() One of the most striking changes in inventory levels has been the "under $200K' market, where we have seen a 58% decline in the number of homes for sale. A small part of this is the slow and steady increase in the median sales price -- causing some homes to no longer fall within this price bracket. Another significant reason for this decline is a slow and steady increase in the number of people trying to purchase homes in this price range. The final component is the lack of new construction in this price range. Increasing demand and decreasing supply is usually addressed via builders jumping in and starting to build new homes (or perhaps townhomes, in this case) to help bridge this gap between low supply and high demand. If we continue to see increasing demand, decreasing supply, and no new construction, we may start to see faster than normal increases in the sales prices of these properties as buyers compete for a slim number of listings. Read more about our local housing market via my most recent monthly market report.... ![]() | |
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Just HOW great were May home sales? |
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![]() Just the BEST month of May EVER! :) Indeed, as shown above, it seems that the 148 home sales seen in May 2017 was the most home sales we have EVER seen during a month of May. Now -- to see how things turn out in June! Read more about our local housing market via my most recent monthly market report. | |
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Best May Home Sales Ever! |
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![]() Check out this immaculate rowhouse at Preston Lake with a rooftop terrace! Wow! Both the temperatures and our local real estate market are certainly heating up! I just published my most recent monthly market report, so apply your sunscreen, read on for an overview of the blistering sales pace of 2017, download the full report as a PDF, or read it online. But first -- for those that would rather listen/watch than read -- tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() OK -- now, back to a high level overview of where things are with the local real estate market.... ![]() MORE HOMES ARE SELLING -- As shown above, we have seen a 5.51% improvement in the number of home sales in this area in the first five months of 2017 as compared to the same timeframe last year. Furthermore, looking at the past 12 months (1,338 sales) as compared to the prior 12 months (1,187 sales) we see a 12.72% improvement in the pace of sales. PRICES ARE SORTA-KINDA INCREASING -- Technically, the 2017 median sales price (January - May) of $189,000 is identical to where it was last year during the same time, however, over the past year the "rolling 12 month" median sales price has increased 4.16% from $185,000 to $192,700. So, we'll say that prices are sort-kinda-mostly increasing. HOMES ARE SELLING FASTER -- The median sales price of homes selling thus far in 2017 has been 49 days. This is 23% lower than last year when it took a median of 64 days for homes to sell. This calculation is based on how many days it takes for a property to be under contract after it has been listed for sale. ![]() Inventory levels are LOW right now (more on that later) so when April concluded, I had some serious doubts about whether we would be able to match the 133 home sales in May 2016. But -- buyers (and sellers, I suppose) didn't disappoint -- there were an astonishing 148 home sales in May 2017! I'll delve into this history a bit more in coming days on my real estate blog, but take my word for it for now -- there have NEVER been 148 home sales in the month of May in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! ![]() What is to come, you might ask? I'd say more sales -- maybe not quite 148 of them -- but hopefully 135 to 145 of them next month. After all, as shown above, there were 133 more contracts signed in May 2017 -- just a slight decline from the 140 and 137 seen in March and April. ![]() As mentioned previously, inventory levels are DROPPING! There are now only 394 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which is 32% fewer than one year ago! Of note -- we only seem to have had sub-400 inventory levels once anytime in the past MANY years -- in January 2017. That wasn't too surprising -- inventory levels have been declining, and who wants their house on the market in January, anyhow? But now, in the month of May (June, actually)? Inventory levels below 400 are quite surprising at this time of year. ![]() Oh -- but it gets worse -- for buyers, that is. Looking at homes under $200K, in ALL of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, there are only 107 homes for sale!? This includes single family homes, townhouses, duplexes and condominiums. This marks a shocking 57% decline in this price range of homes in our area. OK -- there is a pile of additional information bout our local housing market in my monthly market report. If you are interested in more, feel free to download the entire thing as a PDF, or read it online. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is somewhat of a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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All Square Footage is NOT Created Equal |
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![]() So -- your neighbor's 2400 SF, circa 2000, 4 BR, 2 BA home just sold for $300K. It's probably reasonable to think that your 2400 SF, circa 2000, 4 BR, 2 BA home will also sell for $300K, right? After all, you have made the same updates (systems and cosmetic) over time -- and you're on the same street! Well, maybe -- but maybe not! Consider the possibility that....
These two homes will not be seen as having an equivalent value -- not by potential purchasers and not by an appraiser. Above grade square footage has a higher value attached to it -- both specifically by appraisers, and generally by purchasers. Even if all of the other factors (condition, age, location, bedrooms, bathrooms) are the same between two houses, if one has a significant portion of the square footage in the basement then it will be seen as less valuable than the home that has all of its square footage above grade. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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