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Median Sales Price Poised To Increase 3% in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County in 2017 |
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![]() With 11 out of 12 precincts reporting -- wait, no, that was earlier this week -- With 11 out of 12 months behind us this year, it seems that the median sales price of residential properties (single family homes, duplexes, townhomes, condominiums) will have increased by 3% in 2017 to $198,000. A bit more context, not shown above....
So -- we might finish the year with the highest median sales price seen anytime in the past fifteen years -- and ultimately, the highest median sales price, ever, in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County. Read more about our local housing market via my market report published yesterday.... | |
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Local Home Sales Slow, As Inventory Declines, But Prices Are Rising! |
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![]() Find out more about this Mountaintop Retreat on 46 acres with a cabin, hiking trails, canyon and river here. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() Now, let's take a closer look at some of this month's data.... ![]() As can be seen above....
Last year certainly was interesting!?! Or odd!?! Last August, September and November were OFF THE CHARTS as far as a record number of home sales for those months -- which then makes this year's sales trajectory seem as slow as mud in August, September and November. This November's sales were a good bit higher than in 2014 and 2015 -- but were solidly below November 2016. So -- despite the fact that 2017 is hiding in the shadows of a towering year of sales in 2016 -- it is interesting to note that the 11 months of home sales thus far in 2017 (all 1,149 of them) has already surpassed the full 12 months of sales seen in 2013 (1067 sales), 2014 (1085 sales) and 2015 (1125 sales). As such -- while total home sales will likely be 5% to 6% lower this year than last -- that will still mark a solid improvement as compared to any other recent year. After quite a few years of steady increases in buyer activity -- we are starting to see a decline. Over the past six months we have seen buyer activity taper off and start to decline. I believe this is a direct result of the drastic reductions in the availability of homes for those buyers to buy. As the number of sellers in the market at any given time has declined, eventually that also resulted in a reduction in the pace of buying activity. Yeah, so, about those inventory levels. They are low and getting lower!?! And, realistically, when and how do we think that would or could change? In theory, inventory levels will rise this coming Spring -- except they didn't during 2017. Looking back, the end of last November was the highest inventory level we saw for the following 12 months!?! So -- hmmm -- absent any outside factors (new home construction, anyone?) it is possible that the current inventory level (322 homes for sale) could be the highest inventory level we will see for the next 12 months!?! Stop and think about that for a moment.... Somewhat interestingly, as shown above, there has been a larger (proportional) decline in inventory levels for attached properties (townhouses, duplexes, condos) than for single family detached properties. There are now only 56 townhouse/duplex/condo properties available for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! And finally -- one last look at some interesting trends.... As shown above, nearly half (46%) of homes that are selling (not of all that are listed) are selling (going under contract) within 30 days of hitting the market. So -- yes -- the market is moving pretty quickly in many locations and price ranges! OK -- I'll stop there for now. There is plenty more in my full market report, so feel free to download it as a PDF, read the entire report online, or watch/listen to a video overview of this month's report. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Realtor Association and Madison Center for Community Development Publish Local Housing Needs and Market Analysis |
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![]() The Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of Realtors and the Madison Center for Community Development recently (Nov 2016) published a Housing Needs and Market Analysis of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area. There is a LOT of data, analysis and insight in this report -- so feel free to download and read it if this is of interest to you -- or I'll bring some further highlights from it to my blog in the near future. Download the report here. | |
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Most Contracts Result In Home Sales |
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![]() Most of the time, it seems, a contract will result in a closing. OF NOTE -- this is a very (very!) imprecise analysis. In some ways, it is most useful as an indicator of trends over time, but here goes nonetheless.... Per the data above, in 2016....
Does this mean that only 22 contracts fell through? Well, sort of....
But, despite that slight fuzziness, it seems that the success rate of contracts rose to a new high in 2016 -- and thus far in 2017 has been a bit slower than last year -- though on pace with 2015. | |
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Contracts slow in November 2017 within context of declining inventory |
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![]() In the first 21 days of November, this year, 61 buyers have signed contracts to purchase homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Compare that to last year, when 72 buyers had signed such contracts, and you'll note that there has been 15% decline in contract activity when examining this relatively small window of time. Why might this be happening? Perhaps it is because buyers have fewer and fewer options of homes to purchase. Also shown above, you'll note that in early November of this year, buyers had 356 listings from which to choose -- and last year they had 480 choices. This marks a 26% year over year decline in options for buyers. I am hopeful that we'll see this inventory situation turn around at some point, but until or unless it does, buyers are not likely to have very many options for homes to purchase. | |
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During which month are you least likely to sell your home? |
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![]() The graph above examines what percentage of active listings went under contract in each of the past12 months -- thus, accounting for both fluctuation in buyer activity as well as fluctuation in inventory levels. It seems you are least likely to sell your home (have it go under contract) in January or February -- when less than 1 in 5 homes goes under contract. That is in stark contrast to May through July where approximately 1 in 3 homes goes under contract each month. | |
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Contract activity slightly stronger than expected in October 2017, but Winter is coming! |
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![]() Contract activity in July, August and September 2017 (295 contracts) was a good bit slower than last year when there were 348 contracts during that same timeframe. Some of this decline in the number of contracts being signed is certainly a result of lower inventory levels. Thus, it was somewhat of a surprise that contract activity in October 2017 (112 contracts) was slightly higher than last October when there were only 109 contracts signed. So -- a slight uptick in buyers being able to successfully negotiate deals with sellers -- BUT don't forget, Winter is coming! Over the past eight months there have been an average of 119 contracts signed per month. If last Winter (+/-) is any indication, that is likely to drop slightly in November, and then much more significantly in December, January and February. Last Dec-Feb, there were an average of 72 contracts signed per month -- a good bit less than the 119/month average from the past eight months. Read more about our overall housing market in my most recent monthly market report.... ![]() | |
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Strong Sales Year for Duplexes, Townhouses, Condos |
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![]() As shown above, this has been a strong year for "attached home sales" -- which includes duplexes, townhomes and condominiums -- but does not include single family detached homes....
Stay tuned for the end-of-year results, but the sales trajectory in this property category is looking promising. Read more about our overall housing market in my most recent monthly market report.... | |
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Local Home Prices Rise Despite Slightly Slower Sales Pace |
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![]() Find out more about this new listing in Lakewood Estates shown above by clicking here. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or read the entire report with commentary online. Taking a look, first, at a high level overview of the market thus far in 2017.... ![]() As shown above....
So -- while slightly fewer (-5%) homes are selling this year, they are selling at higher (+2%) prices, and are selling much (+37%) more quickly! ![]() As shown above, this year lost its momentum in August and September -- where monthly home sales (118, 105) were no match for last year (158, 129). Things leveled out, a bit, in October -- with just about the same number of home sales (96 vs. 97) this year as last year. Where things will go next month is anyone's guess -- looking at the past three years, November home sales have ranged from 68 all the way up to 113! ![]() Above, visualized slightly differently, you can see that 2017 home sales were on par with (actually exceeding) last year up and through July before we then fell behind in August, September and now October. It seems certain that we'll finish out the year with fewer home sales this year than last, but more than in 2015. All that said -- as one of my clients pointed out -- maybe we shouldn't care if home sales slow down? ![]() Indeed -- a slightly slower pace (-5%) of home sales might not be an negative indicator of market health -- that decline could be a result of declining inventory levels. Perhaps a better sign of a robust and improving local real estate market is the 7% increase in the median sales price of single family homes between 2015 and 2016, and the apparent 5% increase we seem likely to end up with in 2017. ![]() Speaking of slowing sales possibly being a result of lower inventory levels -- yes -- inventory levels are still way (-26%) below where they were last year at this time. And -- no good news here -- it would seem that we will likely see a further seasonal decline in the number of homes on the market as we continue through November, December and January!? Home buyers will likely have a tough time finding options over the next few months -- depending on their price range, where they want to (or are willing to) buy, etc. Let's pause there for now -- though I will continue to explore the latest trend in our local housing market in the coming days on my blog. Until then -- feel free to download and read my full market report as a PDF, or read the entire report online. And if you will be preparing to sell your home soon, you might find these websites helpful.... | |
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Housing Inventory In Short Supply Under $200K, $300K |
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![]() No new news here -- I've been saying it for some time -- fewer and fewer options exist for buying a home in our city/county for less than $200K, and even under $300K. But this visualization (click here for a larger version) was inspired by a comment from Brad - thanks Brad! We know that housing inventory, overall, is at a 10+ year low right now, but Brad observed that not all price ranges are created equal. As (somewhat clearly) shown above, the $300K - $400K and $400K+ price ranges have maintained a relatively stable/healthy supply over the past ten years -- and the under $200K and $200K-$300K price ranges have been the most significant declines. | |
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The mid sized homes that ARE being built |
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![]() Last week I spent some time discussing the market need that I perceive for mid sized detached homes in or near the City of Harrisonburg. I went further, to suggest that these might be 1750 - 2150 SF homes for less than $300K. Thinking further about it over the weekend, I think it is important to note that there are actually SOME homes being built that meet these criteria. Below are the three homes that sold with these specs thus far in 2017.... ![]() 1240 Cottage Lane (just outside Harrisonburg) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 2336 SF / $275,230 ![]() 246 Dylan Circle (Bridgewater) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 1818 SF / $247,000 [no photo available] 395 Acme Company Street (Broadway) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 2257 SF / $277,000 And if we relax the criteria a bit, down to 1600 SF, we pick up a few more.... ![]() 365 Coyote Run (Broadway) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1600 SF / $$222,500 ![]() 2587 Calico Drive (Broadway) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 1639 SF / 5 Acres / $249,100 ![]() 190 Grouse Drive (Massanutten) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1700 SF / $287,500 So, clearly, none in Harrisonburg proper, and most quite a ways from Harrisonburg -- and most importantly, VERY FEW homes at all that are being built and sold in this price range (under $300K) with these specs (1600+ or 1750+ SF). Switching, then, to what is currently available -- we find three options under $300K with 1750+ SF for buyers currently in the market.... ![]() 265 Dylan Circle (Bridgewater) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 1808 SF / $246,900 ![]() 4150 Tanners Court (just outside Harrisonburg) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1830 SF / $279,900 ![]() 1250 Cottage Lane (just outside Harrisonburg) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 2266 SF / $299,400 So, indeed, extremely limited options for new homes under $300K with 1750+ square feet in or near Harrisonburg. This brings me back to my same conclusions as I mentioned last week, and I'll mention again here....
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Who cares if home sales are slowing down |
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![]() The pace of home sales is down 5% this year as compared to last year. But here's an interesting perspective offered up by one of my clients.... Who cares if home sales are slowing down!? As he points out -- the number of homes selling each month might be of more interest to the Realtor profession than the buying and selling public. What an interesting point! He then goes on to call out several data points that are much more important to him, and that he suspects (I agree) are more important to homeowners:
Indeed -- these three indicates are great benchmarks for the health of our local real estate market, and ultimately, he's right -- if prices are going up, inventory levels are low, and foreclosures are infrequent -- it doesn't matter quite so much whether home sales are slightly slower this year than last. So, chew on that for a bit. Home sales being higher than the previous year (at any given point) is not a necessary ingredient for a healthy real estate market. Read more about our local (slower-than-last-year) real estate market in my most recent monthly market report by clicking on the cover of the report below.... | |
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Townhouses (and duplexes and condos) finally increasing in value |
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![]() We've been waiting a few years for this. Attached homes -- townhouses, duplexes and condos -- have not seen much of a change in median sales price over the past three years. In fact, the median sales price declined slightly in 2016 after staying unchanged at $151,750 between 2014 and 2015. But now, we're seeing a (YTD) median sales price of $159,000 -- which is 6% higher than last year. This is a welcome sign of some price recovery in the "attached dwelling" category -- and in some ways it is just surprising that it took so long, as there has been a steadily increasing demand for these types of properties over the past six years. The number of these properties selling per year has increased from 179 in 2011 up to 331 last year -- which is an 85% increase. Read more about our local real estate market in my most recent monthly market report by clicking on the cover of the report below.... ![]() | |
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Low Inventory Levels Lead to Slowing Home Sales in September 2017 |
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![]() Find out more about this beautiful Barrington home shown above here. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... ![]() OK -- now, let's break down a bit of this data.... ![]() As shown above....
In summary, I believe slower sales are a result of lower inventory levels, not a result of lower buyer interest. If buyer interest were waning, we would be seeing level or declining median sales prices, and increasing time on market, neither of which are happening in the current market. As shown above -- we saw a LOT of home sales last August and September -- a total of 287 sales. This year, during the same two months, there have only been 221 home sales. This decline of 66 home sales (Aug/Sep to Aug/Sep) has put 2017 a good bit behind 2016 when it comes to year-to-date home sales -- and it does not seem likely that the final quarter of 2017 will somehow close that gap. Above you will see what I'm referring to when I say that inventory levels are falling at a pace that is causing home sales to decline. Today's buyers have 26% fewer choices than buyers one year ago -- and 38% fewer choices than buyers to years ago. We knew that this would eventually cause sales to decline, as buyers won't just buy anything if it does not meet their needs now and into the future. Not all homes are selling -- and not all homes are selling quickly -- but quite a few are selling quickly! The median days on market of homes sold in the past year has been 39 days! Furthermore, 45% of homes that have sold have gone under contract within 30 days! Yet another sign of strong buyer demand paired with low inventory levels. And -- one more time to drive home my point.... Above you will see that we are experiencing a strong seller's market right now -- with lots of buyers (having steadily increased over the past few years) and very few sellers (having steadily decreased over the past few years). There are now so few sellers that buying activity is starting to fade a bit in recent months. OK -- I'll stop there for now. I will continue to explore the latest trend in our local housing market in the coming days on my blog. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Has the Market Slowed Down in September? |
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![]() It seems it may have.... As shown above, only 69 properties have gone under contract thus far in September 2017 -- as compared to 113 last month. Of note....
Regardless, home buying activity (at the point of contract signing) seems to be slowing down as we head into the Fall. On a completely unrelated note, do we really call these 80 degree days "Fall"? | |
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The Value of Your Home Based On When You Bought It |
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![]() Can historical median sales prices give you some sense of your home's current market value? Perhaps so! The chart above is calculated based on comparing the 2017 median sales price to the median sales price in each of the past 16 years. Do remember, of course, that while this might provide a general guide to what has happened with home values over the 17 years, every home and neighborhood is unique. Let's chat about your specific house if you want to know what it is worth in today's market. Also, if you bought your home in one of the (now few) red years (2006, 2007, 2008), while your home might still be worth less today than when you bought it, you may have paid down your mortgage to the point that you could sell your without bringing money to closing. | |
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If you think housing inventory levels are low now.... |
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![]() If last year is any indication, get ready to see inventory levels falling over the next few months almost as fast as the leaves are falling off the trees. In all seriousness, though, many buyers these days are having a difficult time finding a home they are excited to purchase -- which is not surprising, as inventory levels have declined 27% over the past year. But it is likely to get (temporarily) worse for buyers. As shown above, inventory levels fell 34% last year between the end of August and the end of January. As such -- look at the meager supply of homes currently on the market -- and then eliminate 1 out of every 3 of those homes. That's likely where we're headed over the next few months. But here's the good news (sorta, kinda, with limitations) -- if you are thinking of selling your home in the next few months, you may have quite a few buyers angling to purchase it if it aligns well with what they are looking for in a home. The sorta/kinda part is that you'll only be good shape if you don't have to buy as well. After all, if we quickly sell your home (because of low inventory levels), but can't find something for you to buy (because of low inventory levels), then we still have problems. Who is the indisputable winner in today's local housing market? The home seller who does not have to buy a home as well. :-) | |
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How much of the City of Harrisonburg single family housing stock sells in any given year? |
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![]() OK -- I'll point out, from the start, that I'm making things a bit more complicated here. I'll partially blame Derik, as he asked the question. OK - the graph above, is the same one I posted yesterday -- a look at how many single family homes exist in the City of Harrisonburg in a variety of price ranges, based on their assessed values. But -- if that's how many actually exist -- it is probably reasonable to wonder how many homes actually sell in each of those price ranges in each year. So, here are the City single family home sales in the same price ranges for all of 2016.... ![]() You'll notice that the two graphs above don't look altogether that different. Then, to combine these two, rather than just put really little numbers (how many sell) next to really big numbers (how many physically exist) I thought I"d look at what percentage of each price segment of the City housing stock sells in a given year.... ![]() I think this makes it more helpful, though slightly less specifically meaningful absent scrolling back up and also remembering how many houses we're talking about in each given price range. For example, the chart directly above shows that:
OK -- next, a few flaws and disclaimers:
OK -- it continues -- I think it is probably necessary to try to contextualize this with "active listing" data -- to see how some of these numbers compare to what is available today for a buyer to purchase. Here is a breakdown of single family homes currently for sale.... As you can see, above, there are NOT a lot of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg right now. And let's see if we can flesh anything out if we break it down by how many homes are available to be purchased as compared to the overall number of homes that actually exist.... This graph might have been the one I was looking for -- at least to support my understanding of the world.... Right now -- almost 9% of the homes over $600K are listed for sale -- and 6% to 8% of homes over $400K are listed for sale in the City of Harrisonburg. On the other hand, only 3% of homes between $300K and $400K are listed for sale, only 1% of homes between $200K and $300K and less than 1% of homes under $200K are listed for sale. This would seem to be about as clear of an indicator as one could find that homes under $300K (or even better, under $200K) are in short supply and in high demand in the City of Harrisonburg. Finally, lastly, ultimately, some "overall market" stats....
Questions? Thoughts? Observations? Insights? Suggestions? Email me: scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com | |
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Price Distribution of Single Family Housing Stock in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() OK -- Take 2 -- Based on some feedback, in smaller price increments this time.... Forget about what actually SELLS in any given timeframe, or even what is available FOR SALE at any given point in time. Let's get down to what housing actually EXISTS in the City of Harrisonburg. The graph above shows the number of single family detached homes (Use Code 006 in the City's property database) that exist in the City of Harrisonburg in (120 different price ranges. The homes are sorted into these price categories based on their 2017 assessed values. So -- what surprises you? If more single family homes are to be built in the City, what price range should they fit into? | |
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Single Family Housing Stock in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() Forget about what actually SELLS in any given timeframe, or even what is available FOR SALE at any given point in time. Let's get down to what housing actually EXISTS in the City of Harrisonburg. The graph above shows the number of single family detached homes (Use Code 006 in the City's property database) that exist in the City of Harrisonburg in five different price ranges. The homes are sorted into these price categories based on their 2017 assessed values. So -- what surprises you? If more single family homes are to be built in the City, what price range should they fit into? | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
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scott@funkhousergroup.com
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