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Fewer and Fewer Homes For Sale Under $200K |
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![]() As shown above -- over the past nine years there have always been at least 200 (and usually around 300) homes for sale under $200K. Well, those times may be behind us now. Ever since November 2016, we have seen fewer than 200 homes for sale under $200K. Based on rapid buyer activity, and very little new construction under $200K, this is not likely to change in the near future, if ever! | |
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Will Buyer Activity Increase or Decrease in May and June? |
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![]() History does not tell a consistent story here. Last year, contract activity (buyers -- and sellers -- actually signing contracts) decreased between April and May and then further in June. The two prior years (2014, 2015), however, there was even MORE contract activity in May and June as compared to April. So, as a seller, it's hard to say if we've seen the peak number of buyers (per month) already in 2017, or if we'll see even stronger months of buying activity over the next 45 days. Stay tuned for more details, and until then, feel free to check out my most recent market report for lots of information about our local residential real estate market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. ![]() | |
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Home Sales Slow Slightly in April, Perhaps Due To Low Inventory Levels |
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![]() Don't miss out on this fantastic four bedroom home in Barrington -- details here. OK -- now for your local real estate news! Happy May, everyone! I have published my monthly market report, which you can download as a PDF, or read online. For the abridged version of the most important things for you to know, read on.... First -- for those that would rather listen/watch than read -- tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market. There's a someone humorous technical blooper 90% of the way through. It does not affect the market data being conveyed, so I left it in there for your enjoyment. :) ![]() OK -- now, back to a high level overview of where things are with the local real estate market.... ![]() OK -- several potential stories to unpack here....
As shown above -- April 2017 was another active month of buying activity -- following closely after March's 140 contracts with 137 in April. Again, though, this does not quite stack up against the 158 contracts signed last April. The next few months could be even stronger (see 2015) or even slower (see 2016) -- and some of that may relate to how many choices buyers have from an inventory perspective. OK -- inventory, inventory, inventory -- let's get down to it.... As shown above, today's buyers have significantly fewer homes to choose from -- with a 29% decline in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. That said, it gets even more striking in some price ranges....
That last one is shocking, and perhaps problematic -- our most active price range (average of 60 sales per month) has seen a significant drop in the number of home available to buyers. One year ago, these buyers could have selected from 256 homes -- today, only 125! OK -- there is a pile of additional information bout our local housing market in my monthly market report. If you are interested in more, feel free to download the entire thing as a PDF, or read it online. And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply.... SELLERS -- even though it is somewhat of a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Buyers have to be ready to act FAST these days! |
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![]() So many homes these days are going under contract QUICKLY and sometimes with MULTIPLE OFFERS! Depending on the house, and the location, and the condition, and the price, it may garner a lot of attention very quickly from buyers. This is mainly a result of the very low inventory levels we are seeing right now in many price ranges. So, what does it mean to be ready as a buyer?
The new listings are coming -- and one could be just what you are looking for -- will you be ready? | |
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Can Home Buyers Keep Up The Pace in April 2017? |
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![]() Last year (2016) was a startlingly strong year in the residential real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and thus far, 2017 seems as if it will hold its own. The graph above shows the number of contracts signed per month over the past three months of 2017 (orange) -- and how that compares to the pace of contract signing in 2016. As you can see, despite a slightly slow start in January, both February and March of this year showed MORE contracts being signed than the year below. How, then, are we doing thus far in April??? Could we possibly see a jump all the way up to 158 contracts signed??? Here's what we can see so far.... April 1 - 18, 2016 = 91 contracts April 1 - 18, 2017 = 92 contracts ! ! ! So, yes, it seems April might continue on the strong streak of home sales in 2017! | |
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Is a balanced market always this fleeting? |
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![]() The graph shown above is an illustration of changing inventory levels (blue line) and the number of buyers buying in a six month period (orange line). The point at which the two lines meet is when there was exactly six months of inventory of homes on the market for sale. All of the months prior to when the lines met are times when (to varying degrees) there were many more homes on the market (housing surplus) than there were buyers to buy them (low demand). All of the months after the point when the lines met are times when (to varying degrees) there have been far fewer homes on the market (housing shortage) than there are buyers to buy them (high demand). Perhaps what has surprised me the most in the past year is how quickly the balance seems to be swinging towards a seller's market (low supply, high demand) when I thought we might stay in a relatively balanced market (high supply, high demand or moderate supply, moderate demand) for some time. | |
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Half As Many Options for Buyers Under $200K |
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![]() Housing inventory levels are declining in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, but perhaps none so precipitously as the under $200K market. As shown above, there are HALF as many homes for sale under $200K now as compared to one year ago. This leaves many buyers in this price range in a difficult spot of trying to find a home to purchase that will fit their needs. I believe some of this is related to a lack of new construction of homes in this price range. Read more about our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Strong Home Buying (Contract Signing) Activity in March 2017 |
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![]() This beautiful home is 2930 Brookstone Drive - check it out here! Wow! March was a wild and crazy month in the real estate world in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Let's put it this way -- in the past three years, there have only been three months when more buyers have signed contracts than in March 2017! But I'm getting ahead of myself -- read on.... As you'd guess from the header image above, I have published my monthly market report, which you can download as a PDF, or read online. For the abridged version of the most important things for you to know, read on.... First -- for those that would rather listen/watch than read -- tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market.... ![]() And now, some general indicators of market performance.... ![]() Some basic notes from this general market overview:
As shown above, each month of 2017 (so far!) has barely surpassed the same month of the previous year. That said, we may be about to see a significant change in that trend because.... As shown above, homes were flying off the shelf (buyers were signing contracts) faster (slightly) than I can eat donuts from Peace, Love and Little Donuts. No joking, though, as noted above, the 140 signed contracts in March 2017 exceeds all but three months from the past three years. So -- it seems likely that we'll see a pop in April 2017 home sales! With all of these homes selling, are we running out of homes for folks to buy? Why yes, we are! There has been a 30% decline in the number of homes for sale over the past year. And -- get this -- if we look solely at homes under $200K, there has been a 50% decline in housing inventory levels! OK -- so, more homes are selling, at higher prices, more quickly -- sounds good for sellers, right? Yes, but I would still remind all sellers that even in a seller's market it is still essential to focus on price, condition and marketing. And what is a buyer to do in some crazy times as these? Be prepared! Know the market, know the process, know your buying power, and monitor new listings closely! If you're interested in even more market data, read my full online market report, download the PDF, or click here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell a home.... | |
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Strong Home Buyer Activity Continues in March 2017 |
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![]() Buyers were at it again in March 2017 -- with a 10% increase in buyer activity in the first 26 days of March as compared to the same timeframe a year ago. Look for a strong month of closings in April based on these strong March contract figures! | |
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Just how low are housing inventory levels right now? |
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![]() Low, low, super low! I talk with some regularity about how low inventory levels are right now This is not just a seasonal thing. Inventory levels don't get this low every year at this time and then rise again in the Spring and Summer. In fact, as shown above, for the past there years at this time there have always been between 539 and 550 homes for sale -- that is a pretty consistent track record. This year, however, there are only 405 homes for sale -- marking a 25% decline in the number of homes for sale. it gets worse by price range, by the way. There are 44% fewer homes on the market in the "under $200K" price range right now as compared to a year ago. | |
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Will the Median Sales Price of Townhouses Perk Up in 2017? |
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![]() Despite increases in the pace of sales over the past five (!!) years, we have not seen increases in the median sales price of these properties over the past two years. In fact, the median sales prices of townhouses (and duplexes and condos) actually declined by 1% in 2016. So -- what might 2017 have in store for us? So far, it seems that we might see an overall increase in the median sales price, but it is still early in the year. Stay tuned, and until then, feel free to peruse my full market report by clicking on the image below. ![]() | |
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February Home Sales (and temperatures) Higher Than Expected |
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![]() The beautiful home on the cover of my market report is 135 York Place - check it out here! Yes, yes, I know. Within mere hours of sending this market report that mentions are area's unseasonably warm temperatures of late -- it will be snowing -- but I am not going to believe it is really happening until I see the snowflakes myself. If it does snow, feel free to take a break from clearing the driveway to sit by the fire, drinking hot cocoa, reading my full monthly market report. Now, on with the news of our local housing market.... As you'd guess from the header image above, I have published my monthly market report, which you can download as a PDF, or read online. For the abridged version of the most important things for you to know, read on.... First -- for those that would rather hear me talk about this -- tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market.... ![]() Next, some basic stats that we keep up with on a monthly basis.... ![]() OK -- a few things to note here, based on the data table above.... First, so far, it is looking like one of my 2017 predictions might be wildly incorrect. I have had some concerns about whether there would be enough housing inventory to support the same sales levels as we experienced last year. So far, it has not been a problem. Even though there are now 25% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago, we have actually seen a net gain (small as it may be) of two more sales (137) in the first two months of 2017 as compared to (135) last year. Also referencing the data table above, when looking at the rolling 12-month median sales price, we are still seeing a 3-ish percent increase in median sales price as compared to a year ago. Finally, homes have been selling 9% faster in the past 12 months as compared to the previous 12 months. ![]() Looking at the graph above, you might note the extraordinarily high home sales seen last year in the months of March through June, as well August and September. The mystery this year is whether our local housing market can stay on pace with that aggressive pace of home sales. So far, so good! This January and February both barely edged out the same month last year -- so we are seeing a year-to-date increase in the number of homes sold in this local market. ![]() Next, looking at the graph above we note that February 2017 saw 87 buyers signing contracts to buy homes -- as compared to only 84 last February. This small jump is reassuring after having seen a decline from 74 contracts to 67 contracts when comparing the past to months of January. All-in-all, the annual increase in contract activity (from 1156 to 1327) make sense in the light of the 15% increase in the pace of home sales that we have seem over the past year. ![]() So -- how about those inventory levels? We have seen a 25% year-over-year decline in our market's overall inventory levels. Buyers today only have 402 homes to choose from as compared to 539 a year ago -- though that masks the super-limited choices buyers ACTUALLY have once they introduce their overlays of price, location, size, age, etc. All that said, we are finally starting to see the normal, seasonal increases in listing inventory we'd expect to see at this time of year. Inventory has climbed from 368 homes to 402 homes over the past month. OK -- I'm going to pause there for now and go try to find my snow boots. I'll look further at trends in our local housing market in coming days on my blog. Until then, feel free to read my full online market report, or download the PDF, or click here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later! Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.
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Predicting Home Values Based On Purchase Date |
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![]() The chart above is calculated based on comparing the 2016 median sales price to the median sales price in each of the prior 15 years. Several key points to take away from this chart....
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Low Inventory Levels Not (yet?) Affecting Pace of Home Sales |
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![]() Home sales have increased 15% over the past year -- while at the same time, inventory levels have dropped 31%. This has left me with at least some lingering concerns about whether extraordinarily low inventory levels could limit the pace of home sales in 2017. So far, my concerns are unfounded. As shown above, when examining January 1 through February 24 home sales, there has not been a noticeable change in the pace of home sales. Stay tuned to see how these dynamics continue to adjust as we progress through the year. | |
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How does Price Per Square Foot vary based on the age of a home? |
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![]() As you'd expect, newer homes sell at a higher price per square foot. As shown above, the Median Price Per Square Foot of single family homes varies based on the age of the home.
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Median Price Per Square Foot is On The Rise |
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![]() In addition to watching how the median sales price changes over time, it can be quite insightful to see how the median price per square foot of sold homes changes over time. The graph above tracks the median price per square foot of single family homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past 14 years. Price per square foot increased 59% between 2002 and 2006 during the housing boom, but then fell 22% between 2006 and 2011 as the market cooled back off. Since that time, however, we have seen a slow and steady increase in this metric -- from $101/SF in 2011 to $113/SF last year -- which marks a 12% increase over the past five years. I do not expect that we will see any drastic increases in this metric in the next few years, though an increasing number of buyers (more demand) and significantly fewer sellers (less supply) does make you wonder if we will start to see more rapid increases in sales prices, and thus in price per square foot. | |
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Easy Access to Archived Harrisonburg Housing Market Reports |
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![]() You can now access market reports back to 2013 by visiting HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. Whether you are looking for the most recent report, or if you are interested to see how things were looking a few years ago, you are welcome to explore them all. Also of note, the best ideas for additions to my monthly market reports come from YOU! If you have further questions about our local housing market that are not covered by my monthly market reports, let me know! | |
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Sales Prices Rising Faster in County Than in City |
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![]() Sometimes I have more questions than answers. Or more observations than explanations. As shown above, the median sales price of homes in Rockingham County has increased 4.2% over the past year -- from $194,900 to $203,000. During the same time frame, the median sales price of homes in the City of Harrisonburg has only increased 0.15%. So -- why are home prices increasing more in the County than in the City? Perhaps it is based on what homes are actually selling in the City and County? Maybe we are seeing larger or newer homes selling more frequently in the County, where as smaller or older homes are selling more frequently in the City? Maybe there is more buyer demand in the County, driving prices up more quickly in the City? Theories are welcome! I'll let you know if I have any magical insights. Until then, you can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Sales Up, Prices Up, Inventory Declining Drastically |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 141 Diamond Court I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview below, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... ![]() Now, let's take a look at the overall market performance in January 2017.... ![]() As shown above, home sales were slightly (3%) slower in January 2017 -- but added to recent strong months of sales to show a 14% year-over-year improvement in the annual pace of home sales. Furthermore, median sales prices have increased 3.78% over the past year -- and days on market has declined by 13%. Next, taking a look at buyer activity in the way of signed contracts.... ![]() As shown above, buyers signed contracts at a slightly slower pace (67 contracts) in January 2017, as compared to in January 2016 -- when 74 buyers signed contracts. That said -- the annual pace of contract activity (1,324 in the past year) is still markedly above the prior year when there were 1,170 contracts signed. We are likely to see a bit more contract activity in February 2017 -- but really see things take off in March if last year is any indication. BUT NOW -- THE BIG STORY.... ![]() As shown above, we are seeing a DRASTIC decline in the number of homes for sale in our local market. One year ago, buyers in the market for a new home would be selecting from 532 homes (in all price ranges and locations) but now they would only have 368 options. This is a drastic reduction in the number of homes available for sale, which could lead to increases in sales prices, or reductions in the number of homes that actually sell this year -- due to not having enough homes on the market for buyers to purchase. BUT IT GETS EVEN MORE EXTREME.... ![]() Many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes to be a balanced market between buyers and sellers. That is to say that if 100 homes are selling per month, then the market would be balanced if there were 600 homes for sale. As shown above, the market is out of balance in several price ranges. There are only four months of homes for sale in the $200K-$300K price range and the $300K-$400K price range -- but even more significant -- there are only TWO MONTHS of homes for sale under $200K. That is to say that if no other properties were put on the market under $200K, then in two months time, we could be all the way down to no inventory at all on the market. So, as is likely evident, we need more homes to be listed for sale in the next few months to have any chance at having a normal Spring and Summer market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There is plenty more to learn and consider in this month's market report, such as....
I will explore many of these topics in coming days on my blog. Until then, feel free to read my full online market report, or download the PDF, or click here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later! Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
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January Inventory vs. Past Year of Home Sales |
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![]() For the past four years (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016) and even some before that, we started off the year with enough homes actively listed for sale to last us for right around six months -- or a bit longer. This balance (a six month supply of housing inventory) is considered by many analysts to be an indicator of a balanced housing market. Well, this year (2017) is quite a bit different. Inventory dropped 26% over the past year, and sales rose 17%. As you would, thus, expect - we're starting off the year in a slightly different spot, as shown above. This year, the amount of homes actively listed for sale (413) will only last us 3.8 months based on last year's pace of sales -- which is quite a bit different than the balance we have seen at the start of the year for the past four years. So -- this year will be interesting. Will sales decline because there aren't enough homes for buyers to consider? Will prices rise as many buyers fight over a small number of listings? Will we see just as many home sales last year, but with an even lower "days on market" as each new listing gets snapped right up by a buyer? Stay tuned! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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