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Impressive Contract Pace in November 2016 |
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![]() Here's a bit of a sneak peak at my upcoming market report which will be published next week. The graph above shows the number of contracts signed per month over the past two years. As you can see, there were 91 contracts signed this November -- as compared to only 70 and 77 in the two previous Novembers. This bodes well for continued strong sales (closings) into December 2016. | |
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Fewer and Fewer Homes for Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() I am not kidding around when I tell my buyer clients that there have never been fewer options of homes to buy than RIGHT NOW! I have been tracking housing inventory since February 2008, and we have never (NEVER) seen inventory levels this low. There are currently only 468 homes for sale. Oh, and the pace of buying activity is increasing. Oh, and the population is increasing. I'd say that we have a shortage of housing supply -- and some further new construction is needed in this area! Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Investing in College Student Housing Offers Risks as well as Rewards |
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![]() As I commented to a potential investor this past week -- investing in student rentals can offer a higher return than other non-student properties, but there are also higher risks associated with such an investment. These include....
Again -- investing in student housing can provide a great return on your investment, but it comes with risks that you should full understand before you make an investment. Learn more about investing at Hunters Ridge here. | |
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54% of Homes (that sell) are Under Contract within 60 Days |
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![]() Every home that goes on the market does not necessarily sell. Every home that goes on the market does not necessarily sell quickly. That said, 54% of the homes that do sell (in the past 12 months) are going under contract within 60 days of being listed for sale. As I always discuss with my clients, it's all about price, condition and marketing. Are we doing everything that we can to prepare your home to be presented well and to sell quickly, in the areas of pricing, condition and marketing? Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Local New Home Sales Hit 7 Year High in 2016 |
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![]() After six years in a row of 54 sales or less of new single family homes in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham MLS, we have seen 73 such sales in the first ten months of 2016. This is an indication that local builders are starting to have a bit more confidence in speculatively building homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Of note -- these numbers do not include the new homes that are built by home builders for individuals who own a lot or piece of land, and thus that never show up in the MLS as a home for sale. With increasing sales, and declining inventory, this seems like an ideal time for local builders to begin more speculative building to help meet local buyer demand. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Sellers Selling for 98% of (Last) List Price |
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![]() This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) in recent years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. Over the past several years, the amount that buyers have been able to negotiate sellers down on price has diminished significantly. Between 2010 and 2012, sellers were negotiating down to a median of 4% off of their (last) list price. Now, sellers are only negotiating down 2%. Of note --- 1. This is a median calculation -- so half of sellers are negotiating more than 2%, and half are negotiating even less than 2%. 2. This is a comparison of the sales price to the LAST list price. If a home is worth $200K and is listed for $300K, it is not likely to sell for 2% less than $300K. The seller is likely to have to continue to reduce the price until it is at a reasonable place -- perhaps 2% or 5% above $200K, and then they will likely negotiate somewhere around 2% to their final sales price. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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4.6% Increase in Median Price Per Square Foot in 2016 |
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![]() In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold in the last few years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2015 to 2016) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes. The median sales price has increased 7% over the past year. The median price per square foot has increased 4.6% over the past year. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Local Homes Sales Up 14% YTD Despite Slower Sales in October 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's featured property: 429 West Marshall Avenue I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in October.... ![]() A few highlights from the quick snapshot above....
OK -- as noted above, the 94 homes sales seen in October 2016 mark a 10% decline as compared to the 105 home sales in October 2015, and that was even lower than the 112 home sales seen in October 2014. But before you get overly depressed about a slower October, remember....
So, it seems that the timing of home sales during the year can vary significantly from year to year. Looking at the past three months together can help put things in perspective in some ways....
There, not so bad now, right? That's a 16% improvement over last year when looking at these three months -- and as noted above, when looking at January through October, the pace of home sales in 2016 is 14% higher than it was last year. OK, on to some other items.... The median value of single family (detached) homes is often the best indicator of trends in home values in a local housing market. As shown above, we have been seeing those values increase over the past five years, most notably over the past two years. Also of note, as shown above, after hovering between 810 and 820 home sales per year for the past three years, it seems we are finally poised to break through that invisible barrier this year, as we are likely to see at least 900 and perhaps 950 single family home sales. If my consoling notes above about why slower October home sales weren't so bad didn't help, then perhaps the graph above will help. Slower home sales in October 2016 does not mean that the fast and furious pace of 2016 home sales has come to an end. As shown above, buyers (and sellers) signed 109 home sales in October 2016 -- a 33% increase over the 82 contracts signed last October. So -- we might be in for another month of stronger sales in November. If you are trying to buy a home right now, it is quite possible that you are frustrated by not having many options to choose from. The graph above might explain why you are having this experience. Inventory levels continue to fall -- to where we now only have 480 homes on the market!?!?! This is as compared to a year ago when there were 640 homes on the market at this time -- showing a 25% year-over-year decline. This lack of inventory is slowly starting to tip the market in the favor of sellers, though not in all price ranges and not in all locations. OK, there is plenty more to say, such as....
But -- I'll let you read all about those tidbits via my full online market report, or by downloading the PDF, or by clicking here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later! Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
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Home Buyers Continue Fast Pace of Contract Signing in October 2016 |
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![]() An early look at home buying activity (contracts being signed) in October 2016 indicates that the local real estate market is still not showing any signs of slowing down. After a decline to 99 signed contracts in September 2016, buyers signed 110 contracts in October 2016. This marks a 34% improvement over last October's 82 contracts. Looking back to the start of the main home buying season, there have been 1,018 contracts signed since March 2016 --- compared to only 861 contracts during the same time frame last year. Stay tuned for my full real estate market report next week with plenty of additional details on our local housing market. If you want to receive that monthly market report by email, click here to sign up. | |
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Does buying or leasing make more sense with a two year time frame? |
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![]() ![]() Does buying or leasing make more sense with a two year time frame? It depends on the price range, how much of a down payment you are making, whether you are willing to keep the property as a rental property after you move out, and many other factors. However, above I have included is a 2-year and a 3-year analysis of buying versus renting a property valued at $150K compared to $300K, which shows that....
There are, of course, plenty of extenuating circumstances. Many people might buy a $150K house (or townhouse) even if they are planning to be there for only 3 years --- because they want their own home (not their landlord's), or to get in a certain neighborhood, or because of the tax benefits, etc.
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Who bought what, when, for how much? |
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![]() Looking for information about recent property transfers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Be sure to check out HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. | |
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Broadway Virginia Real Estate Update |
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![]() Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending in Broadway in recent years.... ![]() As shown above, 2016 may be the best year in recent memory for home sales in Broadway, Virginia. The estimate of 101 home sales is based on YTD (Jan 1 - Oct 17) home sales. ![]() Median Sales Prices are also on the rise in Broadway, as shown above. Based on YTD home sales, the median sales price is $183K -- significantly higher than in any recent year. You can find homes currently for sale in Broadway here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Broadway real estate market! | |
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Foreclosures Continue to Decline in Harrisonburg Area |
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![]() The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013, 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, and 8.1 times as many in 2015. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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New Home Sales Increasing in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2006 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (before the housing boom) we still see a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This year, however, seems to be QUITE different. We have now seen 65 new home sales in the first nine months of the year, exceeding the full year of sale seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders! Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Annual Pace of Home Sales Set to Rise in 2016 |
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![]() Take a look at the astonishing pace of home sales thus far in 2016. As shown above, the Jan-Sep home sales this year already exceeds the Jan-Oct home sales for the past two years. If not a single home sold in October, we'd still be ahead of the pace of home sales from the past two years! Looking at the graph above, it is hard to imagine (very, very hard to imagine) that we will not see an increase in the annual pace of home sales during 2016. At this point, I'm thinking 1200 sales -- but maybe it could get all the way up to 1250? Or even 1300? Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() And, if you are preparing to buy or sell a home, here are two handy references.... | |
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Astonishingly High Home Sales in September 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 953 Greenbriar Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in September.... ![]() A few highlights from the basic data breakdown outlined above....
Now, let's contextualize those strong September sales.... ![]() As stated above, there were a LOT of home sales in September 2016 -- a whopping 123 of them. When was the most recent time when we saw this many homes sales (or more) during the month of September? Waaaaaaay back in September 2005 when there were 136 home sales seems to be the only time we have ever seen more than 123 home sales. Wow! ![]() The median sales price of single family homes are often an excellent indicator of the price trends in a local real estate market, as they show a purer form of owner occupant supply and demand. When we examine townhouses as well, we are observing the buyer behavior of both owner occupants and investors -- and there can be much more short-term volatility in demand from investors. So, with the assumption that we'll get the clearest picture of price trends by looking at single family homes, it is striking to see a steady increase in median sales prices of these properties as shown in the graph above. ![]() This graph clearly illustrates what a busy buying season it has been over the past seven months. We have seen an average of 130 contracts per month over the past seven months -- as compared to an average of only 96 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. These strong contract numbers, clearly, are leading to the busy season of closings -- and we are likely to see yet another strong month of sales in October based on these contracts. ![]() Finally -- buyers are finding fewer and fewer choices in the market -- as inventory levels (as shown above) have declined 16% over the past year. Looking back further (not shown above) there has been a 23% over the past two years! Well, there is much more to know, learn, read....but I'll pause here for now, and I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. You can read my entire market report online....
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How Many Home Sales Might We See for the Remainder of 2016? |
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![]() In 2014 and 2016 we saw 805-858 home sales in the first nine months of the year, and then 268-276 in the last three months of the year. Given this year's 961 (!!??!!) home sales in the first nine months of the year, we might see as many as 315 home sales in the last three months of the year. Or, alternatively, the pace of sales could certainly slow down after a frantic first nine months. If we do indeed see 361 sales, that would result in a total of 1,276 home sales this year compared to only 1,126 sales last year. | |
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Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market Update |
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![]() Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending at Massanutten Resort in recent years.... ![]() As shown above, home sales have been increasing at Massanutten Resort over the past five years, with the exception of a small decline in 2015. Of note -- there have already (as of 9/28/2016) been 52 home sales in 2016 -- so we are likely to see more home sales this year in Massanutten Resort than in any of the previous five years. The 64 home sales shown above for 2016 are an estimate based on year-to-date home sales (52) and the timing of sales in 2015. ![]() Value trends over time at Massanutten Resort don't paint quite as clear of a picture, but it can certainly be said that home values have been, generally speaking, increasing over the past 5 - 6 years. Values dipped down a bit more than expected in 2014, jumped up a bit more than expected in 2015, and are where we might have otherwise expected them to be in 2016 if we hadn't had that odd low and odd high. This is a relatively small data set (40 - 60 home sales) which can cause some irregularities in value trends. You can find homes currently for sale in Massanutten Resort here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Massanutten Resort real estate market! | |
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Another Strong(ish) Year of High End Home Sales |
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![]() We saw an amazing 29 home sales over $500K last year -- which was the highest seen anytime since 2008. This year we are on track to likely match that pace of high end sales, with 21 home sales over $500K in the first 9.5 months of the year. ![]() Again, last year showed an amazing number (19) of home sales over $600K - the highest since all the way back in 2007 -- but it does not seem that we will see that many home sales in 2016. With 10 home sales on the books thus far, we have exceed 2011-2014 levels, but it seems unlikely we'll get all the way up to 19 home sales this year. ![]() Finally, looking at the super-high-end home sales (over $700K) we are seeing a significant drop off from last year. Last year we saw a remarkable 11 home sales over $700K, which seems to be the highest number on record, ever. This year, however, we have only seen 3 home sales over $700K thus far. | |
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44% Fewer Homes for Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Buyers are finding fewer and fewer options of homes to purchase in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as inventory levels continue to decline. The graph above shows the number of homes for sale in early September for each of the past eight years. There are 44% fewer homes for sale now as compared to at the peak of inventory levels in 2010. Even looking over the past year, there has been a 12% decline in inventory. These low inventory levels are frustrating buyers in many price ranges, giving them limited options of homes to purchase and SOMETIMES creating multiple offer situations. If you are getting ready to sell your home, it is important to understand the dynamic of how many other home sellers you will be competing against, so we will want to take a look at inventory levels in your particular segment of the market. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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