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Median sales prices almost back to high of 2007 |
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The graph above shows four periods of changes in the local median sales price....
Between the start of last decade (2000) and the peak of the housing boom (2007) the median sales price increased from $116K to $195K. Then, the median sales price dropped all the way back down to 169,900 in 2011. Now, in 2016, we are almost all the way back up to the 2006 peak of a median sales price of $195,100 -- with our current median sales price of $195,000. Thus, if you bought in 2007, your home almost (-2.6%) be now worth what it was when you purchased it. | |
Wild month of home sales in August 2016, contextualized |
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As reported yesterday, we had a RECORD NUMBER of home sales in August 2016. There were 154 home sales --and the most recent month when we saw more than 154 home sales was waaaaaay back in August 2006. With plenty of contracts in August 2016 as well, we are likely to see another strong month of sales in September --- though maybe not 154 of them. Read more about the local housing market here.... | |
Record Number of Home Sales in August 2016 |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3465 Izaak Walton Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in August.... A few highlights from the basic data breakdown outlined above....
As promised, a bit more context. The 154 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during August 2016 marked the HIGHEST number of home sales seen anytime in the previous 10 years. We'd have to stretch back 121 months to August 2006 to find the next highest month of home sales, when we saw 156 home sales. But wait, there's more. If you thought August home sales was the end of a series of strong months, you might be wrong. Take a look at the contract data (above) and you'll note that there were a whopping 130 contracts signed in August -- a 20% increase over last August. As such, we should expect to see strong September/October sales as well. Also of note, over the past six months we have seen an average of 135 contracts signed per months, as compared to only 116 per month a year prior. And the inventory levels keep on dropping. Buyers have fewer and fewer choices these days with current inventory levels hovering around 560 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This results in the best listings (price, condition, marketing) being sold quickly. There is much more to know, learn, read.... I'll pause here for now, but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. You can read my entire market report online....
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Fewer Sellers Providing Closing Cost Credits |
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Only 39.3% of sellers have paid for a part the buyer's closing costs on home sales that have closed thus far in 2016. This marks a decline from the 47.7% of sellers who paid buyer closing costs last year. However.... As shown above, the amount of closing costs that sellers are paying is certainly increasing. The average amount of closing costs paid by a seller (when a credit was provided at all) has increased from $4,150 (in 2015) to an average of $4,328 in 2016. Also of note.... As shown above, of the sellers who are paying buyer closing costs, it is most common for them to pay between $4K and $6K towards the buyer's closing costs. So....if, as a seller, you are asked to pay the buyer's closing costs -- you are not alone (40-ish percent of sellers do) and you will likely be asked to pay $4K - $6K. | |
Showings Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down |
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It has been hard to see the overall trajectory of showings this Spring/Summer as compared to last Spring/Summer since we have had both better and worse months of showings. Let's summarize a bit.... Mar/Apr/May 2016 as compared to Mar/Apr/May 2015 = 10% increase Jun/Jul/Aug 2016 as compared to Jun/Jul/Aug 2015 = 11% increase So, while each individual month might be better or worse than the next, it seems that showings are, overall, increasing this year as compared to last year. | |
Early Look Shows Strong Month of Contracts |
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An early look at August 2016 data shows that it was another STRONG month of buyer activity, with 127 signed contracts. This marks an 18% increase over last August -- and an increase from July 2016 as well. | |
Are home sales trends catching up with population growth? |
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click here for a larger image The Weldon Cooper Center 2015 Population Estimates show that Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2015 Population Estimates: Harrisonburg: 53,875 Rockingham County: 79,134 Combined City/County: 133,009 (up 1% from 131,565 last year) If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that.... More people than usual bought between 2001 and 2007. (housing boom) Fewer people than usual bought between 2009 and 2012. (housing bust, and then recovery) In 2013/2014 we may have finally returned to a "normal" portion of the local population to be buying in a given year. Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,100. | |
Fall is not the worst time to sell your home |
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It is, however, the second-worst time of the year to sell your home. The data above reflects the timeframe during which properties went UNDER CONTRACT -- not when they closed. Plenty of the Summer contracts turned into Fall closings -- but the 235 figure is a reflection of how many buyers made buying decisions (signed contracts) between September and November of last year. So....if you want to sell your home (and close on it) in 2016, you should be thinking about getting it on the market sooner rather than later. | |
84 out of 100 buyers are buying for less than $300K |
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Looking at home sales in the past year we find that....
Clearly, that also means that only 6% of our local market is comprised of home sales over $400K. | |
You are most likely to sell your home in the first 60 days on the market |
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And by that I mean that that more than 50% of the homes that sold in the past year went under contract within the first 60 days that they were on the market. So, as a seller, if you are getting ready to put your house on the market, make sure you are thinking about price, condition and marketing. If your house has already been on the market for 60 days, and is not under contract, it might be time to think through....
Of course, plenty of homes (46%) go under contract after they have been on the market for 60 days -- so that is not necessarily the time to panic -- but it is a good time to pause and take inventory of where things are, making sure that you feel confident in your strategy for moving forward towards a successful sale. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
Will we see 1200 home sales this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? |
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Based on how the year is going thus far, I think we might see 1200 home sales this year. We are currently 79 home sales ahead of the 2015 pace at this time of year -- and if we add those 79 home sales to last year's 1125 home sales, we'd be just over 1200 sales for the year. The only time we have seen more than 1200 sales in a year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County was between 2003 and 2007 -- the infamous housing boom that lead to the dreaded housing bust. It seems unlikely that 1200 home sales in 2016 will be a sign of another boom (and bust) on the way -- as we are seeing much slower and steadier growth now. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
Market Balance By Price Range |
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Many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes for sale to be an indication of a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers. As such, and based on the information presented above, it would seem safe to say that....
For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out.... | |
More Homes are Selling, Faster, at Higher Prices in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 580 Spring Oaks Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview below, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... Now, let's take a look at the overall market performance in July.... A few things jump out at me when looking at the chart above....
July could be seen as a disappointment in some ways. We didn't see sky high home sales, towering over all previous months of July. We only saw a tiny 1.85% increase in sales as compared to July 2015. But wait -- before we become too glum about the 110 home sales in July, let's not forget the record breaking months of sales that we saw in May and June! Just for fun, let's look at May through July home sales for the past few years....
So, yes, I think we can be satisfied with the 110 home sales we saw in July 2016 given the slightly larger context. The graph above is somewhat complicated, but very important as to an understanding of our local housing market. The green "SELLERS" trajectory is showing the number of homeowners trying to sell their homes. The blue "BUYERS" trajectory shows the number of buyers closing on the purchase of homes in a six month period. This graph, therefor, is a good indication of overall market balance in our local housing market, as many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes for sale to be a sign of a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers. As shown above, after many years, we finally saw these trajectories cross last month. That is to say that there are now more buyers buying in a six month period than there are sellers selling. As such, if we've been approaching a balanced market for the past year, it is now definitely "in balance" -- even if that varies some from price range to price range. Taking a look at buyer activity in the form of signed contracts, we see that July was another relatively strong month with 119 contracts signed -- as compared to 118 last July. Put in a slightly larger context, we have seen an average of 136 contracts per month over the past five months -- as compared to an average of only 117 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. One of the ways that we have achieved the market balance illustrated above is by a reduction in the number of homes for sale. As the graph above indicates, we have seen a 15% decline in inventory levels over the past year. Thus, buyers a year ago had 644 homes to choose from -- and today can only choose from 549 properties. OK, let's cut off my ramblings about our local market there for now. There is a lot more more in my full real estate market report, but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. I'll continue to delve into the latest trends on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com over the next few days, but if you just can't wait, feel free to read the entire report online....
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Housing costs stay relatively level despite increasing home values |
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How much does it cost on a monthly basis to buy the median price home in our area, assuming 80% financing? Today, that adds up to an $681 monthly payment -- which is right in the same ballpark as what we've seen for the past two years ($850, $856). How can housing costs be staying relatively level if home values are increasing? Well, it's the declining mortgage interest rates, of course! The graph above shows how much you would pay in a monthly payment for each of the past 16 years if you financed 80% of the purchase price at the average interest rate for that year. These payments include an estimate for your insurance costs, and property taxes based on Harrisonburg's current rate of $0.80 per $100 of assessed value. Another pretty wild perspective -- over the past 16 years, housing costs (understood as outlined above) have only increased by 9.6%. | |
Market Balance (Months of Supply) By Price Range |
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Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). This past month, our local housing market achieved that balance for the first time in a long time -- the number of buyers buying in a six months period exceeded (just barely) the number of houses for sale. HOWEVER -- it is important to note that this overall market reality can obscure the underlying trends in different segments of our local market. As shown above....
Read more about the latest market trends at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.... | |
Best First Half of the Year Since 2007 |
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As is shown above, this year's 598 sales between January and June are the most sales in the first half of the year that we have seen since waaaaaay back in 2007. Looks like this will be a solid year of home sales for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Read more about the latest market trends at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.... | |
Are home values increasing in Harrisonburg? |
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Yes, depending on how you look at the data....
Read more about the latest market trends at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.... | |
Just how quickly are people buying homes these days? |
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Fast, really fast. If we look at the Spring (and early Summer) buying season this year, as compared to last year, we will note that there has been a 20% increase in the pace of contracts being signed. Last year, an average of 117 contracts were signed each month between March and June. This year, that metric rose to 140 per month! Read more about the latest market trends at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.... | |
Strong Home Sales in June 2016 Bring Further Balance to Local Market |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 4140 Brown Roan Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview below, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... Now, let's take a look at the overall market performance in June.... As shown above....
OK -- BIG NEWS HERE -- June 2016 home sales were "off the charts" as they say -- the highest month of monthly home sales we have seen in a LONG TIME! Actually, looking back further that this chart -- the last time we had more than 144 home sales was back in June 2007 -- at the peak of the market boom. AND -- MORE BIG NEWS -- It happened! It really happened! Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. And finally, in June, these two trajectories have crossed! There are more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale! Finally, what should we expect as far as sales for the next few months? Based on recent contract activity, I am thinking we'll see another strong month of sales during July. To put this year in perspective, we have seen an average of 140 contracts per month over the past four months -- as compared to an average of only 117 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report. I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online....
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Buyers have fewer and fewer choices of homes to purchase these days |
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click here for a larger image Buyers have fewer and fewer homes to choose from these days. The blue bars above show that there were 693 homes for sale at this time two years ago -- 653 homes for sale at this time one year ago -- and only 575 homes for sale today! This decline in inventory has helped create a more balanced market -- but can also lead to a frustrating home search for many buyers, depending on their desired price range and location. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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