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Home Sales Preview, June 2016 |
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![]() Are home sales slowing down a smidge in June 2016? The graph above shows the number of contracts ratified in the first 27 days of June this year as compared to last year. As you can see, buyers have not quite been keeping up with the pace of contracts seen last year. Stay tuned for a full analysis of the most recent market data in the first week or two of July. And if you're a buyer -- go buy a house, and help out those 2016 numbers. ;-) | |
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Home Sales on the Rise in Local Market in May 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1831 Manor Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview below, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... ![]() Now, let's take a look at the overall market performance in May.... ![]() The local housing market is, again, showing signs of strength....
As shown above, there have been several months in particular -- January, March, May -- that have catapulted us to our current 15% improvement in home sales this year as compared to last year. We have seen buyers signing contracts in record numbers over the past three months -- which bodes well for strong sales in June as well as (likely) July. Buyers are buying faster than sellers are ready to sell. Inventory levels, as shown above, have declined 12% over the past year. Buyers are seeing fewer and fewer choices of homes to purchase. Finally, the market graph we've all been waiting for -- as shown above, we are finally (!) approaching a perfect balance between buyers and sellers in our local market -- with almost exactly six months of supply available. This is a result of a slowly increasing pace of buying activity over the past few years -- and a slowly declining inventory level during the same timeframe. BUT WAIT -- remember -- all real estate is local, and sometimes that means down to the city, town or even neighborhood. If you are getting ready to sell your home, we should start by looking at these overall trends -- but then we'll need to dive much deeper into the analysis of your price range, neighborhood. property type, etc. There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report. I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online....
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The BRICK vs VINYL showdown |
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How do homes with brick exteriors sell as compared to vinyl-sided homes? Let's take a look to see what the data shows us. To somewhat narrow the scope, this analysis only considers single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, sold for more than $300K, with at least 3000 SF, on less than an acre, that have sold in the past year.... More brick homes sell.... ![]() Brick homes tend to be larger.... ![]() Brick homes sell at higher prices.... ![]() Brick homes sell at a higher price per square foot.... ![]() | |
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May was a STRONG month for showings |
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![]() There have been lots of showings in recent months, leading to lots of contracts -- and the latest (May 2016) data shows another strong month of showings, with 25% more showings as compared to last May. I expect this will have resulted in another strong month of contracts, which I'll verify in the next week or so with a thorough look at our overall residential sales market. Getting ready to buy a home? Learn more about the process at BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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Should I rent or buy a townhouse in Harrisonburg? |
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![]() Given continued low interest rates and some increase in home values, let's take a new look at the opportunities of buying versus renting. RENT = $1000/m. There are regularly options for renting a two-story townhouse in Harrisonburg for approximately $1000 / month in Avalon Woods, Beacon Hill, Stonewall Heights, Liberty Square, etc. BUY = $865/m. With a 95% loan, buying such a townhouse apparently may cost as little as $865 per month assuming a $140K purchase price and 3.875% interest rate per SunTrust Mortgage's payment calculator.... ![]() This shows an $135/month cost savings of buying instead of renting. If we then look at the difference between renting and buying over a five year time period, the advantages start to pile up. ![]() As you can see, this builds a rather compelling case for buying instead of renting if you are going to be living in this potential townhouse for the next five years. Two other factors to keep in mind....
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The First Time Buyer Is Back! |
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![]() Between 2001 and 2004, the number of duplex / townhouse / condo sales increased drastically from 203/year to 644/year. Many of these sales were first time buyers, eager to latch onto the rapidly increasing home value trend. Between 2005 and 2011, the number of buyers per year dropped just as significantly, all the way down to 179 buyers per year in 2011. Now, however, we have seen a steady increase in duplex / townhouse / condo buyers over the past four years --- and much of this increase is a return of the first time buyer. Low interest rates, and home values that are not declining any longer, have both drawn first time buyers back into the market again in larger numbers than in some recent years. | |
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April 2016 was the BEST MONTH EVER for contracts |
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![]() Yep, you heard that correctly, April 2016 was the BEST MONTH EVER -- there has never been another month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County when more buyers contracted to buy homes. Stay tuned for what might come in May and June. Could we see even higher levels of contract activity? Read more about the local housing market..... ![]() | |
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Local Housing Market Shows Strength, Growth in April 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 4290 Brown Roan Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the video overview video, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... ![]() Next, let's take a look at the overall market performance in April.... ![]() We are, again, looking at signs of strength and growth for our local market....
Let's dig into a few details.... Wow! This graph shows very clearly (look at the last two bars on the right) how HOT of a Spring real estate market we are experiencing this year. The pace of contracts in March was a new record for March -- and in April, buyers have done it again. As far back as I have on record (2007) there has never been a month of April when this many (158) contracts have been signed in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Single family homes are often the best indicator of overall trends in a local housing market. As shown above, sales of single family homes are quite stable -- and the median price has been on the rise for several years now. It seems likely that we will see another increase in the median sales price of single family homes in 2016. Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market. In Summary.... | |
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Do townhouse values generally increase over time? |
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![]() I had an interesting conversation with a potential real estate investor earlier this week -- he asked whether townhouses generally increase in value over time. We decided to take a look at the data, which is shown above, and the conclusions are not necessarily clear.
So, in the past 15 years, there have been some intense increases, some depressing decreases, and some recent recovery. The yellow line is the general trendline over time, which shows that overall, values have trended positively over the past 15 years. So, do townhouse values generally increase over time? Let's go with 'yes' for now -- but continue to monitor as we hopefully have a more normal next three to five years in our local real estate market. | |
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Home values in 22801 have fared better than most areas since 2004 (Washington Post) |
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![]() "The overall U.S. housing market has recovered from the crisis that plunged the country into recession. But a new analysis by The Washington Post shows that the recovery has been deeply uneven, creating winners and losers along lines of race, income and geography. " Explore this analysis at The Washington Post, with data specific to Harrisonburg (22801). | |
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Buyers are at it again in April |
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![]() There were a record number of buyers (signing contracts) in March -- the 133 contracts shown above was a 13% improvement over last March, and was the highest month of March contracts on record as far as I can tell. Thus far in April, buyers are still quite active! In the first 22 days of April last year there were 75 contracts -- this year, 115 contracts! Stay tuned at the beginning of May for a final count of April contracts. | |
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Predictably, twice as many buyers are choosing the County (over the City) in 2016 |
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![]() The first quarter of 2016 has been a (crazily) busy few months of contract activity -- especially in March. As shown above, twice as many buyers are contracting on homes in Rockingham County (192) as compared to the City of Harrisonburg (93). But, it turns out that shouldn't surprise us, based on the typical pace of buyer activity in the City and County.... ![]() As shown above, last year there were just about twice as many home sales in Rockingham County (746) as there were in the City of Harrisonburg (379). But before you conclude that County home sellers have it soooo easy, because twice as many buyers are buying in the County, I should point out that there are actually MORE THAN twice as many homes for sale in Rockingham County (411) as compared to the City of Harrisonburg (151).... ![]() As such, there are actually more buyers per seller in the City than in the County. | |
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Most March Contracts Ever? |
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Buyers are busy buying, in most price ranges.... |
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![]() Home sales are on the rise -- on almost every price range:
So, what is happening with the $300K - $400K home sales? As shown above, they are down 18% year-over-year, though they are up 25% compared to where they were two years ago. Maybe it was a temporary boom of these buyers over the past year?? Theories welcome! | |
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Home Sales, Median Prices on the Rise in 2016 Q1 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3095 Baybrook Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the overview video below, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... ![]() Next, let's take a look at the overall market performance in March.... ![]() Some rather good news, in all areas, as far as improvements in our local market....
OK -- now with that formality aside, let's talk about the crazy, wild, unbelievable stat of the month.... Yes, you are reading that correctly....
So, buyers were actively signing contracts in March 2016, it seems. :) As shown above, the 83 home sales in March 2016 were the highest of any recent March. The question now remains -- how many home sales will we see in April? Could the 133 contracts from March help boost the market up to more than 104 sales in April? One last trend that I am watching closely -- the single family home market. As shown above, we have seen a relatively steady number of single family home sales over the past few years -- which is neither thrilling nor depressing. The median sales price, on the other hand, has been steadily climbing -- great news for anyone who owns a home, or likes to see an improving housing market. In Summary.... | |
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Showings on the rise in March 2016 |
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![]() Showing activity is on the rise in March 2016 -- with 8% more showings than last March. This is after a slower December/January as compared to the same time a year ago. I anticipate that this will be a busy Spring season for our local real estate market. | |
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Archive of Harrisonburg Housing Market Reports |
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![]() You can now access market reports back to 2013 by visiting HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. Whether you are looking for the most recent report, or if you are interested to see how things were looking a few years ago, you are welcome to explore them all. Also of note, the best ideas for additions to my monthly market reports come from YOU! If you have further questions about our local housing market that are not covered by my monthly market reports, let me know! | |
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If you bought in X then your house is likely now worth Y |
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![]() The chart above is calculated based on comparing the 2015 median sales price to the median sales price in each of the prior 15 years. Several key points to take away from this chart....
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When do buyers start buying in earnest? (Now!) |
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![]() The buyers are coming, the buyers are coming! As you can see, above, buying activity starts creeping up as soon as February, more so in March, and APRIL is the third hottest month of the year for buyers to be signing contracts. Timing is everything -- so if you're thinking of selling this Spring/Summer let's talk about how the data above might speak into your real estate plans. Read more about recent market trends in the most recent version of my monthly housing market report, found online.... ![]() | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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