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Local Housing Market Shows Continued Strength in February 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 120 Cantermill Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the overview video below, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, a video overview.... ![]() Next, let's take a look at the overall market performance in February.... ![]() As outlined above, there are several indicators of a strong local housing market....
![]() The pace (and price) of single family homes are often a good way to understand the overall trajectory of a local housing market -- because it takes rental properties (and the impact of investors) out of the mix. As such, it is good to see the price of these home sales increasing (quite a bit) even if the pace of sales has not significantly increased over the past few years. ![]() Inventory levels are still hovering around 530/540 -- but are on the brink of increasing significantly, which will likely happen over the next 30 to 60 days. Hang on tight! In Summary.... BUYERS -- You should have plenty of additional options to consider in the coming months, but houses that are priced well will likely sell quickly. Strike while the iron is hot -- and relish the opportunity to still have super low (sub 4%) fixed mortgage interest rates. SELLERS -- Price, Condition, Marketing. If you are getting ready to put your house on the market, let's make sure we have your house priced well compared to what has recently sold, that your house is in a condition to have a broad appeal to buyers, and of course, let's market it thoroughly and professionally. More and Much, Much More.... There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report. I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online.... ![]() And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. Finally, here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell.... And if you are ready to get the process started, simply contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Buyers likely to have many more choices in coming months |
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![]() If this year is like last year (and just about every year, ever) buyers will have many more choices in coming months. As shown above, inventory levels are likely to steadily increase over the next three to their peak in June. If you are hoping to know about every new listing, as soon as it hits the market, check out NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com where you can sign up for email alerts for new listings. | |
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The 50 Most Valuable Properties in Harrisonburg |
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![]() The list above shows the 50 properties in Harrisonburg with the highest assessed values per the 2016 assessments. As you can see, JMU, apartment complexes and City schools are many of the most valuable properties. Let's take a closer look at the top 10.... ![]() 017 B 1 900 S MAIN ST VISITORS JAMES MADISON UN $314,295,600 ![]() 085 A 3 UNIVERSITY BLVD COMMONWEALTH OF VA VISITORS OF JMU $183,758,900 ![]() 017 C 0-17 235 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR WAY VISITORS OF JAMES MADISON UNIVERSITY $72,134,500 ![]() 081 A 17 250 CHESTNUT RIDGE DR COPPER BEECH TOWNHOME COMMUNITIES $49,952,800 ![]() 018 D 2 3 5 VISITORS JAMES MADISON UN $47,061,600 ![]() 086 D 1 UNIVERSITY BLVD VISITORS JAMES MADISON UNIVERSITY $45,777,400 ![]() 117 A 2 935 GARBERS CHURCH RD HARRISONBURG CITY SCHOOL BOARD $44,560,100 ![]() 078 C 3 1925 E MARKET ST SM VALLEY MALL LLC $41,596,500 ![]() 051 A 1 1301 HILLCREST DR EASTERN MENNONITE COLLEGE & SEMINARY INC $34,447,800 ![]() 072 A 16 LINDA LA SCHOOL BOARD OF THE CITY OF $33,905,400 | |
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Top Property Owners in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() Sorting properties in the City by their owner results in the data outlined above. These are likely some of the most prolific property owners in the City of Harrisonburg. One important disclaimer, however, is that this summary does not account for people who own properties under multiple ownership entities. A more owner specific notes....
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Approaching a balance between buyers and sellers |
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![]() Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market had an extreme imbalance several years ago, with more sellers in the market than were needed based on the buyers in the market. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market. Read more about the local housing market in my most recent market report.... ![]() | |
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Local Housing Market Sees Strong Start in January 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3853 Traveler Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, watch the overview video below, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... A Video Overview.... ![]() Let's start by taking a look at the overall market performance in January and over the past twelve months.... ![]() Strong Sales Pace.... As shown above, we saw a strong month of sales in January -- with 67 home sales, as compared to only 49 last January. This 37% year-over-year improvement in January 2016 contributed to a 6.42% year-over-year increase in the annualized pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Increasing Prices.... While the median price ticked down 0.51% when only looking at January 2016 figures, the median sales price over the past 12 months increased by 2.83% to $185,000 compared to the previous 12 months. Faster Sales... Homes are also selling faster -- at a median pace of 55 days on the market based on sales in the past 12 months. ![]() When looking at a rolling 12-month time frame in the graph above, we note that:
Buyers and sellers signed 74 contracts in January 2016 -- as compared to 76 last January. This is despite a large snowstorm that slowed down the market for at least a week during January. This is an indicator that we are likely to see a similar number of February home sales this year as we did last year. Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale) are at their lowest levels seen anytime in the past eight months. This is not surprising given the time of year we are in -- though year-over-year inventory levels have also declined by 2%. More and Much, Much More.... | |
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I am expecting a lot of showings in February |
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![]() There were a LOT of showings in the fourth quarter of 2015 -- with 60% and 58% year-over-year increases in October and December. But then January came, and along with January came lots of snow. That seems to have been the main driver between the 41% decline in January showings as compared to a year ago. I suspect that as the snow continues to melt, and as some additional homes come on the market, that we will see a strong month of showings in February 2016. | |
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Contract Success Rate on the rise |
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![]() After a slight dip in 2014, the Contract Success Rate rose to 96% in 2015. That means that nearly all contracts that are signed by buyer and seller make it to closing. This may be a result of more reasonable lender underwriting requirements, or more prepared buyers, or buyers and sellers being more rational when negotiating the speed bumps between contract and closing. Regardless, it is good news for anyone who has a house going under contract -- it is more likely to go to closing than it was a year or two ago. | |
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January Inventory vs. Full Year Home Sales |
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![]() A few short years ago there were enough homes on the market in January to last us nearly an entire year. In January 2011, there were 787 homes on the market and only 832 buyers would go on to buy a home that year. Things have looked at bit different over the past few years, with lower (529-560) levels of inventory at the start of the year, and higher (1085-1175) home sales in the year that followed. ** Please note: The 2016 home sales shown in the graph above are a projection, not a promise. :) | |
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Buying under $200K in Harrisonburg may require you to buy an old or attached home |
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A bit more about affordable housing in the City of Harrisonburg, as we started to explore yesterday.... ![]() There are 149 residential properties for sale in Harrisonburg right now -- but if you're buying under $200K, and hoping for a single family (detached) home, it may be more difficult than you imagined. As shown above....
So, if you are looking to buy under $200K in Harrisonburg you may have to buy an old home or an attached home (duplex, condo, townhouse). | |
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Homes in Harrisonburg Under Half A Hundred Years Old |
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![]() If you haven't heard, it's becoming difficult to find bread in Harrisonburg this week. Something about a pending weather system.....maybe eating bread is a part of the snow dance ritual? Hard to say.... Beyond bread, though, the next hardest thing to find in Harrisonburg right now is a single family family home, built in the past 50 years, at "an affordable price" -- however one might define that.... ![]() As shown above, if you are looking for a single family home in the City of Harrisonburg, built since 1966, for less than $125K, you are out of luck. You'll start to find some options at $129K and then things go right on up from there. Check them out here. If you know about some secret locations to find detached homes under $125K in the City -- or bread for that matter -- let me know! | |
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More New Homes Selling, at Higher Prices |
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![]() As shown above, more new homes (54) sold in 2015 than in any year during the past five years. In fact, the 54 new home sales shown in the MLS in 2015 marked a 42% improvement over 2014. Furthermore, the median sales price has increased to $140/SF -- the highest level seen anytime in the previous six years! Of note -- the home sales shown above are only the new homes sold via the MLS. Plenty of other new homes have been built in recent years and sold directly by the builder (without ever being in the MLS) or were built via a contract build between land owner and home builder. Read more in my Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report.... ![]() | |
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My Predictions for the Harrisonburg Area Real Estate Market in 2016 |
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![]() Last year (2015) was a solid year for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market, with a 3% increase in the pace of home sales. This level of home sales (1,022) was the highest number of home sales seen anytime in the previous seven years. I expect that we will see continued improvement in the number of home buyers purchasing homes in our local area in 2016. As shown to the right, I am predicting a 5% improvement in the pace of sales, for a total of 1,175 home sales in 2016. I believe we will see continued increases in local employment opportunities, combined with only small increases in mortgage interest rates, leading to continued increases in home buyer activity. ![]() After three years (2012, 2013, 2014) of very small increases in the median sales price (+1%, +2%, +2%) we finally did see a more substantial increase in 2015. The 4% increase in the median sales price last year increased the median price to $185,000 -- the highest price seen since back in 2009. Over the next year, expect that we will see further improvements up to a median sales price of $192,500. If this indeed happens, this will be the third highest annual median sales price we have ever seen in this area. The highest median sales prices on record of $195,000 in 2008 and $195,100 in 2009 were both during the real estate boom. | |
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Home sales between $300K - $400K are running counter to the rest of the market |
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![]() Theories are welcome! As shown above, the under $200K market has been flat over the past year ,the $200K-$300K and $400K+ markets have increased by at least 30% over the past year -- but the $300K - $400K market has declined by 25%. One year ago, an average of 9.8 homes were selling in this price range ($300K-$400K) each month. That has declined (over the past year) to an average of 7.4 sales per month. | |
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The Single Family Home Market in 2015 |
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![]() The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year (2015), depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2015) marked the third year in a row with between 810 and 820 home sales -- so, virtually no change in the pace of home sales. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes increased by 5% to $200,000 -- which is the first time we have seen a $200K or higher median sales price since 2005-2009. It is encouraging that sales prices are increasing even without substantial increases in the number of home sales. Read more in my Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report.... ![]() | |
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The Townhouse Market in 2015 |
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![]() The graph above examines townhouse, duplex and condo sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As you can see, there has been quite an uptick of activity over the past few years --- an increase from 179 sales/year in 2011 to 304 in 2015. In the past year, the number of annual sales has increased by 14%. Prices, however, have not increased over the past year. After an 11% increase in the median sales price in 2014, the median sales price did not budge in 2015 -- it stayed right at $151,750. Read more in my Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report.... ![]() | |
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Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 6190 Dotts Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() A year-end look at the numbers is always fun -- we finally have all of the numbers in and now we know the following about 2015 when looking at the residential real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
But wait! Before we mash all of the data together and call everything wonderful, here is something interesting.... ![]() As shown above....
Here is a colorful and fun and uplifting graph.... ![]() Just another visual indication (above) of the improvements we have seen in our local real estate market over the past few years. The most notable jump in the pace of sales was between 2012 and 2013 -- but we finally broke into the 1100's this past year. Buyer Activity.... ![]() As shown above, contracts picked up a bit in December 2015 -- to 67 contracts as compared to only 63 last December. However -- the annual pace of buyers signing contracts declined slightly, from 1192 to 1172. Of note -- despite fewer contracts in 2015 -- there were more sales -- which is an indication that more contracts are successfully making it through to closing. More and Much, Much More.... There is more, oh so much more, in my full year-end real estate market report. I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online.... ![]() And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Inventory levels are quite low, but it is quite normal |
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![]() Inventory levels are quite low right now -- there are only 553 homes for sale -- but this is quite normal for this time of year. Several of my clients have recently commented on the very low number of new listings they have seen in the past month. Hopefully we'll see some soon, though last year inventory levels stayed quite low from January through March. | |
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Fact Checking My 2015 Predictions |
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So.......back on January 12 of this year, I made some predictions...... ![]() As shown above, I was predicting....
Well, let's see how I did. Looking at all of the data in the system thus far (a few more 2015 sales will likely be reported in the next week) this is what I'm finding....
It turns out I was a bit conservative on the increase in home sales, but pretty darn close on the increase in sales price. Stay tuned for my 2016 predictions coming in January. | |
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Fewer and fewer and fewer foreclosures |
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![]() There have been fewer and fewer and fewer foreclosures of properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in recent years. We're still not back to the sub-100 level of 2000-2007, but we're a lot better off than we were when we were seeing over 200 foreclosures per year. The data point for 2015 shown above (128 trustee sales) only includes Jan 1 - Nov 30 data. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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