Analysis
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After a weird dip last year, land is back to selling for around $14K per acre |
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![]() I'll take a look at how these prices per acre vary within different acreage ranges soon -- but for now, know that all 1+ acre lots that are selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling at a median of $14,025 per acre. Last year's median of $9,932 was an odd departure from the previous several years. | |
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Homes Sales Increasing, Except Between $300K and $400K |
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![]() The pace of home sales is increasing in every price range except $300K - $400K. There are only an average of 7.8 homes selling per month in the $300K - $400K price range, as compared to an average of 9.8 sales per month a year ago. This might seem like a small numerical change, but it amounts to a 21% decline in the pace of sales, and is in stark contrast to the increases seen in all of the other price ranges. | |
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We are approaching a balance between buyers and sellers in our local market. |
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![]() Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market had an extreme imbalance several years ago, with more sellers in the market than were needed based on the buyers in the market. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market. Find out more about our local market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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December 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 6600 Lawyer Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() There is plenty to be excited about in this month's report on our local housing market....
![]() Home sales are piling up in 2015 -- as shown above, the 1,039 home sales we have seen between January and November this year is well above the number of home sales seen anytime in the previous five years. ![]() The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. Curiously, we are seeing fewer people signing contracts in the most recent 12 months (1,168) as compared to the previous 12 months (1,186). Since closed sales are increasing, this likely means that more contracts are making it successfully to closing. ![]() Inventory levels are both up, and down. There are actually 2% more homes on the market now as compared to a year ago -- however, inventory levels have dropped by 6% over the past six months, as is typical for this time of year. OK, that's it for now. You can read further commentary in coming days on my blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com, or dive right into the full market report, which you can read online or download as a PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Should your house be on the market over the holidays? |
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![]() 31 sellers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County would say YES! Many homeowners took their house off the market over the holidays, some of whom will wait until the first Monday of January to re-list, and some of whom will wait until Spring to put them back on the market. And why not? There couldn't be too many people buying homes over the Christmas holiday, right? Looking back at this past holiday season, if you took your house off the market 10 days before Christmas (Dec 15) and waited until the first Monday after the New Year to put it back on the market.... You would have missed out on 31 buyers who signed contracts to buy homes between those dates. | |
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Contracts Slightly Slower in Sept, Nov |
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![]() There have been 241 contracts signed in the past three months (Sept, Oct, Nov) -- as compared to 248 contracts during the same months last year. With that small of a decline (-3%), we'll say that buyers are buying at "about the same pace" as last year. While I'd always like to see 3% - 5% year-over-year growth in the pace and price of sales, it is unlikely that we'll always see those steady increases. Thankfully, looking at a wider time frame, sales are up 5% year-over-year in 2015 through the end of October. More stats to come soon. | |
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86 out of 100 buyers are buying for less than $300K |
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![]() Looking at home sales in the past year we find that....
Clearly, that also means that only 6% of our local market is comprised of home sales over $400K. All of this points towards our YTD median sales price of $186K. | |
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What is the worst month to sell your home? |
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![]() Sorry for the bad news -- but it seems that December is the worst month to sell your home -- as the lowest percentage of active listings are likely to go under contract in December as compared to any other month of the year. The graph above examines what percentage of active listings have gone under contract in each of the past12 months -- thus, accounting for both fluctuation in buyer activity as well as fluctuation in inventory levels. | |
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Showings strong in October after many slow months |
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![]() Looking at the graph above, you might not guess that home sales are up 5% year-over-year. But they are. Showings, however, as shown above, have been quite slow in many recent months. There were fewer showings in May, June, July, August and September as compared to the same month the previous year - yet despite this, home sales increased. October was a breath of fresh air, as showings increased dramatically (+60%) as compared to last year. | |
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City prices down, County prices up |
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![]() As noted above, the pace of homes sales is increasing in both the City and County when comparing January through October sales figures in 2014 vs. 2015. The same across the board increase is not found in sales prices.... ![]() The median price has declined 2% in the City -- but has increased 5% in the County. Other items of note....
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Fewer Contracts, but, wait for it, More Sales! |
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![]() There have been 1% fewer contracts signed this year.... AHHHH!!??!! -- The Sky Is Falling!! -- alert, alert, panic, panic! Oh, but wait.... There have been 5% more closed sales this year. Hmmmm.....could it be that a higher percentage of contracts are making it to closing this year than last? Maybe the (slight) (itty bitty) decline in contracts is not too worrisome after all. | |
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November 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1730 Buckingham Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() October 2015 home sales were a bit slower (-7%) than last October -- but year to date home sales (January - October) have increased 5% in 2015 as compared to 2014. This increase in the pace of home sales has been accompanied by a 4% increase in both the median sales price and the average sales price -- and the time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has declined by14% to 56 days. So -- more homes are selling, more quickly, at higher prices. Good news (for home sellers) on all three counts. ![]() As shown above, October home sales on their own, fit into the middle of the pack as compared to the past few October's. That said, 2015 has been a turbulent year over all -- with several months (June, August) hitting never-seen-before monthly high's -- and with some slower months as well. Looking forward, the past two years have shown dreadfully slow months of November -- will we really see that much of a decline this year? Or will sales stay a bit stronger this November? ![]() I greatly enjoy the graph above -- it most readily shows the overall improvement of the (YTD) home sales market over the past five years in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Clearly, there was a significant recovery in the pace of sales between 2012 and 2013 -- but we have seen continued recovery in 2014 (barely) and 2015 (more significantly). ![]() Inventory levels climbed ever so slightly (+1%) year-over-year in October -- and actually increased slightly from where we were a month ago. We will likely see these inventory levels drop off over the next few months as we head into the winter market. OK, that's it for now. You can read further commentary in coming days on my blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com, or dive right into the full market report, which you can read online or download as a PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Improvements in the $400K housing market |
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![]() If you are hoping to sell a house in the $400K price range, your prospects of doing so are much better now than they were a year ago, and here is why....
If you are hoping to sell a $400K home, the market has seen significant positive changes over the past year that are likely to make your efforts much more successful now than they would have been a year ago. | |
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October 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 775 Confederacy Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() After a wild and crazy month of August home sales (all 126 of them) the market cooled off a bit in September, showing a 13% decline in home sales. That said, the year-to-date pace of home sales is still 6% higher than it was last year -- and the median sales price has increased by 6% over the past year. Finally, homes are selling faster -- the median days on market is down 17% as compared to this time last year. ![]() As shown above, the Summer 2015 real estate market has been a bit of a roller coaster ride -- with high peaks in June and August, and slower sales in July and September. I am sure that the ride will finish safely at the station in December -- but I haven't ridden this one before to know if there are more peaks, twists or turns to be experienced in October and November. ![]() We are getting closer! And closer! And closer! We're seeing fewer sellers in the market, and more buyers -- this means that our market is (finally!?!) approaching a balance. We're already seeing it in some price ranges (particularly under $200K) but it will be good to see it in our overall market as well. ![]() Just as we saw last year, inventory levels stayed relatively steady between the end of August and the end of September. We are likely to start to see inventory levels decline much more quickly in the next 30 to 60 days. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full October 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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What did home buyers buy in September 2015? |
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![]() As a summary....
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Buyers Slow to Respond in August, September |
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![]() Fewer buyers signed contracts to buy homes in August and September of 2015 as compared to the same month last year. Let's hope for an increased pace of signed contracts in October and November! | |
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Foreclosures Continue to Decline in 2015 |
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![]() After peaking in 2010 at 270 completed foreclosure sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we have seen declines in nearly every year since then -- down to a total of only 163 foreclosure sales last year -- and a projected 154 this year. This decline in the number of foreclosed homes (and thus decline in the number of sales of banked owned homes, potentially at lower-than-market-value) is helping to continue to stabilize our local real estate market -- and it means fewer people are losing their homes due to their inability to make their mortgage payments. Good news on both fronts! | |
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Record Setting Year for High End Home Sales |
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![]() Only 75% of the way through the year, we have already seen more (23) home sales over $500K during 2015 than we saw in the entirety of any of the past six years. This is a promising sign for owners of homes valued over a half million dollars. ![]() Looking a bit deeper we see that a tremendous number of those home sales were over $600K. We have seen 15 home sales over $600K in the first nine months of this year -- well more than any seen in the past seven years. ![]() And finally, we see that quite a few of these home sales were actually over $700K! There have been more $700K+ home sales in the first nine months of 2015 than we have seen in the past four years COMBINED! | |
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The Seasonality of Home Sales . . . Selling in the Fall is OK |
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![]() Fall is my favorite time of year. Cool weather, beautiful changing leaves, my birthday, a delicious Thanksgiving meal, time with family, candy corn, apple cider, where can you go wrong?? AND -- when looking at the full year of home sales leading up to (and including) last Fall, it seems that Fall was the second best time of the year (after summer) to sell your home. So, if you missed the Spring and Summer markets, and are considering putting your house on the market now, don't despair - there will still be some buyers looking at your home. | |
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Surprisingly, September Sales Seem Somewhat Sluggish |
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![]() OK, admittedly, the month is only halfway over at this point, but thus far, buyers have been signing contracts at a slower pace than last September. Last September, 51 buyers had signed contracts in the first 15 days of the month -- this September, only 33 buyers have done so. Hopefully we will see some renewed buying activity in the last two weeks of September. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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