Newer Posts | Older Posts |
City prices down, County prices up |
|
As noted above, the pace of homes sales is increasing in both the City and County when comparing January through October sales figures in 2014 vs. 2015. The same across the board increase is not found in sales prices.... The median price has declined 2% in the City -- but has increased 5% in the County. Other items of note....
| |
Fewer Contracts, but, wait for it, More Sales! |
|
There have been 1% fewer contracts signed this year.... AHHHH!!??!! -- The Sky Is Falling!! -- alert, alert, panic, panic! Oh, but wait.... There have been 5% more closed sales this year. Hmmmm.....could it be that a higher percentage of contracts are making it to closing this year than last? Maybe the (slight) (itty bitty) decline in contracts is not too worrisome after all. | |
November 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
|
Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1730 Buckingham Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... October 2015 home sales were a bit slower (-7%) than last October -- but year to date home sales (January - October) have increased 5% in 2015 as compared to 2014. This increase in the pace of home sales has been accompanied by a 4% increase in both the median sales price and the average sales price -- and the time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has declined by14% to 56 days. So -- more homes are selling, more quickly, at higher prices. Good news (for home sellers) on all three counts. As shown above, October home sales on their own, fit into the middle of the pack as compared to the past few October's. That said, 2015 has been a turbulent year over all -- with several months (June, August) hitting never-seen-before monthly high's -- and with some slower months as well. Looking forward, the past two years have shown dreadfully slow months of November -- will we really see that much of a decline this year? Or will sales stay a bit stronger this November? I greatly enjoy the graph above -- it most readily shows the overall improvement of the (YTD) home sales market over the past five years in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Clearly, there was a significant recovery in the pace of sales between 2012 and 2013 -- but we have seen continued recovery in 2014 (barely) and 2015 (more significantly). Inventory levels climbed ever so slightly (+1%) year-over-year in October -- and actually increased slightly from where we were a month ago. We will likely see these inventory levels drop off over the next few months as we head into the winter market. OK, that's it for now. You can read further commentary in coming days on my blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com, or dive right into the full market report, which you can read online or download as a PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
Improvements in the $400K housing market |
|
If you are hoping to sell a house in the $400K price range, your prospects of doing so are much better now than they were a year ago, and here is why....
If you are hoping to sell a $400K home, the market has seen significant positive changes over the past year that are likely to make your efforts much more successful now than they would have been a year ago. | |
October 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
|
Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 775 Confederacy Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... After a wild and crazy month of August home sales (all 126 of them) the market cooled off a bit in September, showing a 13% decline in home sales. That said, the year-to-date pace of home sales is still 6% higher than it was last year -- and the median sales price has increased by 6% over the past year. Finally, homes are selling faster -- the median days on market is down 17% as compared to this time last year. As shown above, the Summer 2015 real estate market has been a bit of a roller coaster ride -- with high peaks in June and August, and slower sales in July and September. I am sure that the ride will finish safely at the station in December -- but I haven't ridden this one before to know if there are more peaks, twists or turns to be experienced in October and November. We are getting closer! And closer! And closer! We're seeing fewer sellers in the market, and more buyers -- this means that our market is (finally!?!) approaching a balance. We're already seeing it in some price ranges (particularly under $200K) but it will be good to see it in our overall market as well. Just as we saw last year, inventory levels stayed relatively steady between the end of August and the end of September. We are likely to start to see inventory levels decline much more quickly in the next 30 to 60 days. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full October 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
What did home buyers buy in September 2015? |
|
As a summary....
| |
Buyers Slow to Respond in August, September |
|
Fewer buyers signed contracts to buy homes in August and September of 2015 as compared to the same month last year. Let's hope for an increased pace of signed contracts in October and November! | |
Foreclosures Continue to Decline in 2015 |
|
After peaking in 2010 at 270 completed foreclosure sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we have seen declines in nearly every year since then -- down to a total of only 163 foreclosure sales last year -- and a projected 154 this year. This decline in the number of foreclosed homes (and thus decline in the number of sales of banked owned homes, potentially at lower-than-market-value) is helping to continue to stabilize our local real estate market -- and it means fewer people are losing their homes due to their inability to make their mortgage payments. Good news on both fronts! | |
Record Setting Year for High End Home Sales |
|
Only 75% of the way through the year, we have already seen more (23) home sales over $500K during 2015 than we saw in the entirety of any of the past six years. This is a promising sign for owners of homes valued over a half million dollars. Looking a bit deeper we see that a tremendous number of those home sales were over $600K. We have seen 15 home sales over $600K in the first nine months of this year -- well more than any seen in the past seven years. And finally, we see that quite a few of these home sales were actually over $700K! There have been more $700K+ home sales in the first nine months of 2015 than we have seen in the past four years COMBINED! | |
The Seasonality of Home Sales . . . Selling in the Fall is OK |
|
Fall is my favorite time of year. Cool weather, beautiful changing leaves, my birthday, a delicious Thanksgiving meal, time with family, candy corn, apple cider, where can you go wrong?? AND -- when looking at the full year of home sales leading up to (and including) last Fall, it seems that Fall was the second best time of the year (after summer) to sell your home. So, if you missed the Spring and Summer markets, and are considering putting your house on the market now, don't despair - there will still be some buyers looking at your home. | |
Surprisingly, September Sales Seem Somewhat Sluggish |
|
OK, admittedly, the month is only halfway over at this point, but thus far, buyers have been signing contracts at a slower pace than last September. Last September, 51 buyers had signed contracts in the first 15 days of the month -- this September, only 33 buyers have done so. Hopefully we will see some renewed buying activity in the last two weeks of September. | |
Showings Slow Despite Strong Sales |
|
Sales are up 8% this year -- but showings have been down (year-over-year) for the past four months. Any number of theories could (partially) explain this....
Other theories? | |
The under $200K market is the healthiest |
|
"Months of Housing Supply" is determined by dividing the number of buyers buying (on average over the past 12 months) into the number of sellers selling (number of current listings). This graph (above) does so for each of four different price ranges in our local market. Here's what we find.... Under $200K
| |
August Home Sales Hit 8 Year High per September 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
|
Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 787 Confederacy Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... Good news -- after a a slightly slow July 2015 (16% fewer home sales as compared to July 2014) we saw the market pick back up again in August 2015 -- showing a 13% improvement over August 2014. This has contributed to the 8% year-to-date improvement in the pace of sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As noted above, the median sales price has also increased by 7% thus far in 2015 -- and the average sales price is up 5% as compared to this time last year. As noted in the headline, August home sales (all 120 of them) marked an eight year high for August home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This was after a slightly slower July. Looking at the entire summer, here's what we find....
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market has been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market -- and we are almost to a balanced market. And, as shown above, inventory levels keep marching downward. It's typical for this time of year, but not the most exciting news for home buyers who are selecting from a smaller and smaller pool of prospective properties. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full September 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
Buyers have fewer, and fewer, and fewer choices. |
|
Despite my reminder that while summer is over, it is still not too late to get your house on the market, we continue to see inventory levels declining. This is typical -- not unusual at all -- but certainly frustrating for some Fall buyers who would love to have more homes to choose from not fewer. Inventory levels are likely to continue to decline through the end of the year, and are not likely to see a measurable increase from their low Winter levels until we get to March or April. | |
Introducing HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com |
|
Many of my past clients have considered, or are considering, the purchase of an investment property in Harrisonburg as a means for diversifying their investments. Today, I launched a new website, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com to provide an overview of your options if you are considering the purchase of an investment property in Harrisonburg, Virginia. This new website features investment properties in a number of categories, including.... On this new website you can explore a variety of communities where you might consider the purchase of an investment property, and explore useful information such as the pace and price of sales in the community.... ....a concise investment analysis of a sample property in the community.... ....specific details of recent sales in the community.... ....and much more, including properties currently for sale, and a neighborhood map. But that's not all! I am also releasing several tools I have built in Microsoft Excel to aid in your analysis of potential rental properties, including a mortgage calculator and two different investment analysis worksheets. Check out these analysis tools here. Whether you are preparing to buy your first rental property, or your 10th, I hope that this new website will serve as a helpful resource to you. If you have suggestions for further additions to the site please let me, and if you would like my assistance in evaluating and purchasing investment properties in Harrisonburg, please email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) to set up a time for a preliminary consultation. | |
Declines in housing inventory much more severe in City than County |
|
As Karl pointed out, the declines in inventory levels over the past few years have been more significant in the City than in the County. And as Charles pointed out, this could be a great time for someone to start building some spec homes. If you are a builder, and are considering building some spec homes, let's chat about what would work best in the current market -- and where you might build it. | |
Inventory levels are at the lowest levels we have seen in at least seven years |
|
If you think there aren't many homes for sale, it's because there aren't many homes for sale. The graph above shows how inventory levels in our area have shifted downward over the past seven years. Looking at inventory levels at the start of each August, here's what we find....
Past years indicate that we will likely see inventory levels continue to decline over the next five to six months. | |
Mortgage interest rates are likely to increase soon, but not now, per minutes of Federal Reserve meeting |
|
Over the past three years (shown above) interest rates have fallen into three categories....
As you can see above, interest rates have spent the most time in the ABSURDLY LOW category over the past years -- and apparently interest rates will be going up "soon, but not now" per a Washington Post article about the recent Federal Reserve meeting.... The Federal Reserve made few waves when its top brass met in Washington last month for their regular policy-setting meeting. Its target interest rate — pegged at zero since the financial crisis — remained unchanged, and the central bank's official statement offered few clues of when it might rise.Read more in the full Washington Post article, This is how the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates. | |
Sellers are only negotiating an average of 3 percent off of their list price these days |
|
Sellers, on average, are willing to take 3% off of their list price -- based on a historical analysis of how much sellers have negotiated in recent years. That being said.... 1) This ratio (homes sell for 97% of their list price) is a comparison of the sales price to the LAST list price. Sometimes it takes a price reduction or two until a list price is seen to be at a reasonable place by buyers to elicit an offer that then gets negotiated to that average of 97% of the final list price. 2) On a related note, a seller can't price their home wherever they'd like and then expect it will sell for 97% of that list price. A home with a market value of $300K will not sell for $388K if you list at $400K. 3) Buyers should not necessarily expect to be able to negotiate 10% off of a list price. Sometimes it happens -- a seller is extra motivated, a list price is way too high, etc. -- but it is not a common occurrence. 4) Sellers should not expect to sell for 100% of their list price. If you lower your list price from $315K to $300K, buyers will certainly take note of the recent price reduction, but they won't necessarily be ready to pay you 100% of your new list price -- unless you have lowered the list price to the point where it is right at, or just below market value. If you're getting ready to put your house on the market this Fall, let's start talking now about pricing strategies to best prepare you for what a buyer might offer you for your house in the current market. | |
Newer Posts | Older Posts |
Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Home Search
Housing Market Report
Harrisonburg Townhouses
Walk Through This Home
Investment Properties
Harrisonburg Foreclosures
Property Transfers
New Listings