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Showings Slow Despite Strong Sales |
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![]() Sales are up 8% this year -- but showings have been down (year-over-year) for the past four months. Any number of theories could (partially) explain this....
Other theories? | |
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The under $200K market is the healthiest |
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![]() "Months of Housing Supply" is determined by dividing the number of buyers buying (on average over the past 12 months) into the number of sellers selling (number of current listings). This graph (above) does so for each of four different price ranges in our local market. Here's what we find.... Under $200K
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August Home Sales Hit 8 Year High per September 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 787 Confederacy Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() Good news -- after a a slightly slow July 2015 (16% fewer home sales as compared to July 2014) we saw the market pick back up again in August 2015 -- showing a 13% improvement over August 2014. This has contributed to the 8% year-to-date improvement in the pace of sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As noted above, the median sales price has also increased by 7% thus far in 2015 -- and the average sales price is up 5% as compared to this time last year. ![]() As noted in the headline, August home sales (all 120 of them) marked an eight year high for August home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This was after a slightly slower July. Looking at the entire summer, here's what we find....
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market has been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market -- and we are almost to a balanced market. And, as shown above, inventory levels keep marching downward. It's typical for this time of year, but not the most exciting news for home buyers who are selecting from a smaller and smaller pool of prospective properties. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full September 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Buyers have fewer, and fewer, and fewer choices. |
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![]() Despite my reminder that while summer is over, it is still not too late to get your house on the market, we continue to see inventory levels declining. This is typical -- not unusual at all -- but certainly frustrating for some Fall buyers who would love to have more homes to choose from not fewer. Inventory levels are likely to continue to decline through the end of the year, and are not likely to see a measurable increase from their low Winter levels until we get to March or April. | |
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Introducing HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com |
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![]() Many of my past clients have considered, or are considering, the purchase of an investment property in Harrisonburg as a means for diversifying their investments. Today, I launched a new website, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com to provide an overview of your options if you are considering the purchase of an investment property in Harrisonburg, Virginia. This new website features investment properties in a number of categories, including.... ![]() On this new website you can explore a variety of communities where you might consider the purchase of an investment property, and explore useful information such as the pace and price of sales in the community.... ![]() ....a concise investment analysis of a sample property in the community.... ![]() ....specific details of recent sales in the community.... ![]() ....and much more, including properties currently for sale, and a neighborhood map. But that's not all! I am also releasing several tools I have built in Microsoft Excel to aid in your analysis of potential rental properties, including a mortgage calculator and two different investment analysis worksheets. Check out these analysis tools here. Whether you are preparing to buy your first rental property, or your 10th, I hope that this new website will serve as a helpful resource to you. If you have suggestions for further additions to the site please let me, and if you would like my assistance in evaluating and purchasing investment properties in Harrisonburg, please email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) to set up a time for a preliminary consultation. | |
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Declines in housing inventory much more severe in City than County |
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![]() As Karl pointed out, the declines in inventory levels over the past few years have been more significant in the City than in the County. And as Charles pointed out, this could be a great time for someone to start building some spec homes. ![]() If you are a builder, and are considering building some spec homes, let's chat about what would work best in the current market -- and where you might build it. | |
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Inventory levels are at the lowest levels we have seen in at least seven years |
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![]() If you think there aren't many homes for sale, it's because there aren't many homes for sale. The graph above shows how inventory levels in our area have shifted downward over the past seven years. Looking at inventory levels at the start of each August, here's what we find....
Past years indicate that we will likely see inventory levels continue to decline over the next five to six months. | |
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Mortgage interest rates are likely to increase soon, but not now, per minutes of Federal Reserve meeting |
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![]() Over the past three years (shown above) interest rates have fallen into three categories....
As you can see above, interest rates have spent the most time in the ABSURDLY LOW category over the past years -- and apparently interest rates will be going up "soon, but not now" per a Washington Post article about the recent Federal Reserve meeting.... The Federal Reserve made few waves when its top brass met in Washington last month for their regular policy-setting meeting. Its target interest rate — pegged at zero since the financial crisis — remained unchanged, and the central bank's official statement offered few clues of when it might rise.Read more in the full Washington Post article, This is how the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates. | |
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Sellers are only negotiating an average of 3 percent off of their list price these days |
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![]() Sellers, on average, are willing to take 3% off of their list price -- based on a historical analysis of how much sellers have negotiated in recent years. That being said.... 1) This ratio (homes sell for 97% of their list price) is a comparison of the sales price to the LAST list price. Sometimes it takes a price reduction or two until a list price is seen to be at a reasonable place by buyers to elicit an offer that then gets negotiated to that average of 97% of the final list price. 2) On a related note, a seller can't price their home wherever they'd like and then expect it will sell for 97% of that list price. A home with a market value of $300K will not sell for $388K if you list at $400K. 3) Buyers should not necessarily expect to be able to negotiate 10% off of a list price. Sometimes it happens -- a seller is extra motivated, a list price is way too high, etc. -- but it is not a common occurrence. 4) Sellers should not expect to sell for 100% of their list price. If you lower your list price from $315K to $300K, buyers will certainly take note of the recent price reduction, but they won't necessarily be ready to pay you 100% of your new list price -- unless you have lowered the list price to the point where it is right at, or just below market value. If you're getting ready to put your house on the market this Fall, let's start talking now about pricing strategies to best prepare you for what a buyer might offer you for your house in the current market. | |
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Market segments under $300K are the healthiest |
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![]() The "months of supply" illustrated in the graph above shows how many months it would take to sell all homes currently listed for sale in each price range given the current pace of buying activity in that price range. As you can tell, each price range is performing differently. Let's take a closer look.... ![]() The good news, as shown above, is that over the past 12 months, all price ranges have seen a decline in the months of housing supply available on the market for sale. The decline in the months of supply available ranged from 13% to 32%. But when we look changes over the past six months, we find a bit of a different phenomenon.... ![]() As shown above, almost all price ranges are seeing more months of supply available now as compared to six months ago. The largest increase in housing supply has been in the $300K - $400K price range with a 56% increase in months of supply over the past six months. The only price range that did not experience an increase in available housing supply has been the $200K - $300K price range. A few concluding thoughts....
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Inventory Levels Headed Down For The Winter |
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![]() Wait... what?? Inventory levels are headed down... for the winter?? Yep, in some ways, we're already in that seasonal decline. Inventory levels have declined over the past 60 days, and are likely to continue to decline from now until next March based on seasonal trajectories of past years. Furthermore, there is an 8.6% year-over-year decline in inventory levels, further limiting the number of homes that are on the market. BUYERS: If you want to buy a home in the next three to six months, you likely have more options now than you will have in a month, and in another month, and the next after that. SELLERS: While we'll see fewer buyers in the Fall (and then the Winter) those buyers will have fewer and fewer buying options since inventory levels are declining. As such, the declining inventory levels work to your benefit -- giving you fewer sellers to compete with. | |
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August 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report: Home Sales Up 6%, Prices Up 7% |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1368 Bluewater Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() First, the fun news. As noted above, when looking at 2015 YTD home sales, you'll find that the market has shown a 6% improvement over last year in the pace of sales -- and that the median sales price has risen by 7%. Both of these are signs of a strong, growing local real estate market. A third indicator to note is that the median time it takes for a house to go under contract (days on market) has fallen 11% over the past year. ![]() You may have noted that July 2015 home sales (105) were a good bit below July 2014 home sales (125). It turns out the seven year high of 132 home sales seen in June 2015 may simply been a timing phenomenon. When combining June and July home sales, there were 237 home sales in June/July 2015 as compared to 236 home sales during June/July 2014 --as such, the two month track record for June and July is on pace with last year despite the decline in monthly sales in July 2015. ![]() Looking, graphically, at the first seven months of home sales during 2015 (above) you can see that we're a good bit ahead of 2014 (YTD) and that this is the strongest January - July sales pace we have seen in at least the previous five years. Looking back further into the historical data, it seems that the last time we saw 628 (or more) January - July home sales was waaaay back in 2007. ![]() While every market segment (price range, property type, neighborhood, specific house) has performed differently over the past four years -- it is certainly a welcome sign to see a nearly $20,000 increase in the median sales price over the past four years -- after having seen a $25,000 decline from the peak in 2007/2008. ![]() After several months of year-over-year declines in the monthly pace of contracts being signed, we did see (above) a year-over-year increase during July 2015 with 118 contracts being signed by buyers (and sellers). We are likely to see 100+ contracts during August, and quite possibly into September and October as well. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full August 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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July (2015) Home Sales Seeming Cooler Than Past Years |
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![]() I will hold out a bit longer to see any other home sales that might end up being reported in the MLS in the next few days, but thus far, home sales in July 2015 are coming in a bit lower than the same month in the past two years. Stay tuned for more analysis as the week goes on. | |
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Local Market Likely to Hit $225M in Real Estate Sales in 2015 |
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![]() Slow increases in the number of sales plus slow increases in the median sales price result in increase in the overall volume of real estate sold in this area. The graph above is based on Jan 1, 2013 - Jun 30, 2015 sales data, so the 2015 figure is a projected figure. It looks like we are on track to get close to, or to surpass 225 million dollars in real estate sales in our local market in 2015. | |
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Is August too late to list my home for sale? |
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![]() Nope -- it's not too late to list your home in August. While we will have missed the strong Spring and early Summer rush of buyers, there will still be plenty of buyers in August, September and October. As shown above, last year there were more buyers in August than in July! One other silver lining for late Summer (early Fall) sellers -- there will be fewer sellers to compete with as the next month or two passes and inventory levels continue to decline. If you're thinking about putting your house on the market in August, let's chat ASAP about any improvements you will be making to the house as well as reviewing market data to develop a pricing strategy. | |
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Contracts Still Slow in July 2015 |
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![]() There were 16% fewer contracts in May 2015 as compared to in May 2014. There were 13% fewer contracts in June 2015 as compared to June 2014. Thus far, July 2015 is also lagging behind July 2014 -- by 17% -- though we still have a few more days for deals to stay together. These slower months of contract activity will eventually, inevitably, lead to slower months of closed sales as well. | |
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Sales of new construction homes speeding up in 2015! |
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![]() General market recovery (in both pace and price of sales) may finally be resulting in a return of new construction single family home sales. As shown above, we may see a big jump in the number of new construction home sales in 2015 -- perhaps beating out the past five years! | |
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Lot Sales, Prices Increasing in 2015 |
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![]() Sales of building lots of less than an acre in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have started to pick up steam over the past few years. Year-to-date sales (47) point to a potential of 94 lots sales this year, which would be a 12% increase in sales. Prices also seem like they might finally be increasing. The median sales price of building lots of less than an acre declined (slightly) in 2013 and 2014 but seem poised to increase 6% in 2015. | |
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Single Family Home Sales Prices Up Nearly 8% in 2015 |
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![]() The analysis above looks only at single family home sales -- which excludes duplexes, townhouses and condos. This metric is a helpful indicator for the overall residential market because there are not usually a lot of investors participating in this segment of the market, thus it is typically a good representation of owner occupant demand for houses. As is shown above, the last few years have seen (small) declines in median sales prices with a 2% decline in 2013 and a 1% decline in 2014. It is, thus, exciting news (for home sellers, though perhaps not as much for home buyers) that these median sales prices have increased by nearly 8% thus far in 2015 as compared to 2014 median sales prices. Read more about current market trends in my monthly market report found online at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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July 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report: Home Sales Hit Seven Year High |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 2826 Brookshire Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() First, the fun news. As noted above, June 2015 home sales (all 126 of them) broke a long-standing record for the number of homes selling in a single month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The last time we saw this many closings in a single month was waaaay back in August 2007! ![]() Moving beyond a single month of lots of home sales, it is clear (as shown above) that the first half of the year is off to a smashing start as well. There were 515 home sales in the first half of 2015 -- more than in the first six months of any of the preceding five years. ![]() Perhaps these increasing home sales are what is also helping median prices to start to rise. As shown above, after several years of slow increases (+1%, +2%, +2%) in the median sales price, we are now poised to see a 5% - 6% increase in median sales prices in 2015. Stay tuned to see how the rest of the year shakes out -- but hopefully we'll at least clear 3% or 4%. ![]() If you're thinking about putting your house on the market, this might be a swell time to do it -- as shown above, inventory levels are down 6% year-over-year AND inventory levels dropped over the past month. Buyers have fewer options right now, and there are still plenty of buyers looking to buy.... ![]() As shown above, there were more buyers (126) in June 2015 than we saw in May 2015 (114) and we should still see quite a few more months of 100+ buyers making decisions to buy homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full July 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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