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Go ahead, set off those fireworks, June 2015 home sales were hot, hot, hot |
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Despite having fewer showings in May/June and fewer contracts in June, it looks like June 2015 was a great month for (closed) home sales. With a few more sales likely to trickle in over the next few days, June 2015 home sales are already showing a 13% improvement over last June. Stay tuned for more analysis in the days to come.....and Happy Independence Day! | |
Showings slower (than last year) in May, June 2015 |
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I don't always bring good news. Showing activity in May and June of this year was slower (-28%, -18%) than in the same two months last year. Stay tuned for further market analysis next week to see how we're doing on contracts and sales in the first half of the year. | |
Another month of 100+ contracts |
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June 2015 will be the fourth straight month with 100+ contracts being signed by buyers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. In 2014, we saw 100+ contracts every month between April and September. In 2015, the 100+ months started in March. It seems unlikely that we will hit the high of 145 contracts that we saw in June 2014 this month, but we'll double check again in a few more days. | |
Reimagining Days on Market |
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Two months ago, our "Median Days on Market" in this area was 119 days. Now, as shown above, it's only 66 days. What's happening? A drastic acceleration of our local real estate market? Actually, no. "Days on Market" is now being calculated differently by our new MLS. In the past, the "Days on Market" was counting the number of days between the list date and closing date. Now, it is a calculation of the number of days between the list date and when a property goes under contract. In many ways, this is a more helpful calculation -- it takes the variable of "how long it takes a buyer to get to closing once they are under contract" out of the equation. Now, "Days on Market" shows how long it takes for a house to go under contract. | |
Maybe the price of building lots has not plummeted? |
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The story illustrated above (lot prices plummeted 50% and have never recovered) is the one I've been running with over the past few years. It takes the $100K lot value as the "new norm" and then looks at all values after that point ($55K-ish for years and years) as depressingly low. Perhaps that's not the correct storyline. What if this is really the story.... Perhaps the story to be told is that lot values steadily increased between 2000 and 2005 (from $26K to $55K), then had an abnormal, unnatural, unsustainable spike (to $99K) before settling back down to the then continued norm of $55K-ish. If this, is, the more important story to be embracing, then we need not be quite as depressed. Other than a brief two year wild party (for sellers of building lots) the median sales price of these lots has been around $55K for the past decade.... | |
Home prices edging up a bit more quickly? |
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After several years of 1% - 2% increases in median price per year, could we finally be seeing a larger (faster) increase in the median sales price in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market? The data thus far in 2015 shows a 6% improvement in median sales price as compared to 2014. Let's see if we can stick with that 6% improvement as the year goes on! Learn more about local market trends via my most recent housing market report.... | |
June 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 2550 Ramblewood Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... Overall (year-to-date) market indicators look FANTASTIC in this latest report....
Technically, we saw a slight decline (106 to 105) in home sales when comparing May 2015 to May 2014 -- but I'll live with that given the overall positive trends outlined above. How do we know that home values are increasing in our local real estate market? When we see sustained upward movement in long-term trends -- and it seems safe to say that we're seeing that now. After over three years of a sub-$180K median price (when looking at a rolling 12 month period) we saw that ceiling shattered in April 2015 after over six months of steady increases -- and now, this 12-month rolling median sales price has jumped up to $185K! Stay tuned, folks, but it looks like we may be starting to see some increases in sales prices, and thus home values. Now, to provide a balanced look at things, I should point out that despite my exuberance about the above-referenced market trends, the pace of buyer activity (as measured by properties going under contract) was a bit disappointing in May 2015 as compared to May 2014. It was certainly a solid month of contracts being signed (114) but a far cry from the 135 we saw last May. It will be interesting to see what happens in June 2015 as last June there were a whopping 145 contracts signed! As one last indicator of where we are these days -- it is worth noting that inventory levels have remained relatively stable over the past year. There were 679 homes on the market a year ago -- there are 659 on the market today. In theory, we'll see a slight increase in inventory over the next few months as we continued into and through the Summer market. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. In the meantime, you can read the full June 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
Now is the time for $300K+ Home Sales! |
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As is usually the case, we are starting to see our annual boom in $300K+ home sales. The graph above shows home sales over $300K during each month in 2014. You can see that June and July were the most active months for sales in this price range. | |
Lots of Showings! (and contracts, too, of course) |
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In each of the past six months there have been more showings than in the same month during the previous year. This increase in showings has amounted to a 30% year-over-year increase in showings when looking at November - April. It should be no surprise, then, that contracts and closings are also increasing. | |
What are home values likely to do over the next few years? |
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Based on recent trends, I believe we will see 2% - 4% increases per year in the median sales price over the next few years. If we take this year's YTD median sales price ($182,250) and use a 3% per year metric, here's what the next few years would look like....
That would mean that a median priced home ($182K) may increase in value by about $17,000 over the next three years. | |
May 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 205 Weavers Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... Above you will note that we are seeing many market improvements in 2015....
As shown above, February, March and April 2015 home sales have all surpassed the same month in 2014. We are likely to see 100+ home sales per month over the next 5 or 6 months as we continue through the Spring and into the Summer selling season. OK -- one last tidbit for you before I make you go read the full online market report, or download the PDF.... As shown above, more buyers (109) signed contracts in April 2015 than in April 2014 (107). This continues the trend of increased market activity in 2015 and is likely to lead to strong months of sales during May and June. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. This month has been a bit of a whirlwind, in part because of the new local MLS. If you study my reports intently from month to month, you'll see some new data making its way into the mix -- more on that soon. Read the full May 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
The balance between buyers and sellers in our local housing market |
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(this one deserves a larger image, click here to view it) Q: Have we reached a balance between buyers and sellers in our local housing market? A: We're not quite there, but we are a lot closer than we have been anytime in the past six years! Here's the methodology behind the chart above....
Read more about the local housing market in my most recent monthly housing market report.... Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF. | |
April 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1344 Meadowlark Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... There were quite a few very positive overall market indicators this month, especially considering we are now working with all 1st Quarter home sales data....
Buyers signed 25% more contracts in the first quarter of 2015 than in the first quarter of 2014. This likely bodes well for the pace of closed sales in April and May of this year. Overall, inventory levels are down 5% as compared to where we were a year ago -- but that statistic masks an interesting contrast:
For regular readers of my market report, you'll find everything a bit mixed up this month -- but hopefully the new organization will be more helpful for you as you study the market. My monthly report is now organized into the following categories..... OK, that's it for the summary -- read the rest of my market report online or by downloading the full PDF. And above all, if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
Home Sales Profile of Dayton, VA |
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Looking to purchase a home in Dayton, VA? Understand the market first! As shown above, the number of homes sold in Dayton in any given year fluctuates quite a bit more than in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as a whole. Over the past three years we have seen an average of 17 home sales per year in the Town of Dayton. Of note, there are more than 17 homes currently for sale in in Dayton! With a small number of home sales per year in the town of Dayton, we also see quite a bit more variability in the median price of the homes that sell. That is not to say that home values bounce up and down from year to year in Dayton - but more so that the median sales price fluctuates quite a bit based on which homes actually sell in a given year. Find homes for sale in Dayton, VA here. | |
What did home buyers buy in March 2015? |
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How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in March 2015?
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March 2015 continues trend of increasing home sales |
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We still have another few days when March 2015 home sales will be reported, but we have already seen more sales this year (56) than during the month of March last year (55). This continues the trend of improving monthly home sales. Now, 10 out of the past 12 months have shown the same number of more home sales than in the same month during the previous year. | |
High End Home Sales Relatively Stable in 2014 |
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Exploring home sales over $500K, we see that home sales levels in 2014 stayed relatively on track with where they were in 2013.... Despite the drop from 20 to 18 sales over $500K, the $600K+ market stayed completely stable.... And the sale of $700K+ homes actually increased.... As a side note, you may recall that 2014 marked the first $1M+ home sale (in the MLS) since 2010. Looking for a full listing of all the $500K homes currently for sale? Check out HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com. | |
Two (of four) price ranges are well balanced (between buyers and sellers) in our local housing market. |
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Six months of housing supply is considered to be an indicator of a balanced housing market. That is to say that if we look at the average number of buyers buying per month (I prefer to look at it over a 12 month period) and then divide that into the number of active listings in that price range....
As shown above, we're in a relatively well balanced state in the "$0 - $200K" price range (we have been for a while now) and we have recently become much more balanced in the $300K - $400K price range due to some recent recovery in that segment of our local market. Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF.... | |
The most quickly recovering price range is.... |
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This might surprise you, but the price range that has seen the most significant year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales is homes priced between $300K and $400K. Anyone want to volunteer some theories on why we're seeing this recovery in this price range at this time in the market? Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF.... | |
March 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 12108 Rabbits Foot Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, the big picture trends thus far this year show signs of a healthy, growing market....
Both January and February of this year appear as "middle of the pack" months when put in the context of 2012, 2013 and 2014. The sales trajectory we see in March and April will be a good indicator of how the rest of this year will turn out. Last year, we experienced somewhat slower than expected home sales all the way until May when the monthly sales pace started popping up above previous years. I am hopeful we will see an earlier start to the 2015 market. Hooray for lots of buyers in February 2015 -- signing contracts, that is. A whopping 98 contracts were signed in February 2015, compared to only 75 last February. This is an excellent indicator that we should see strong (closed) sales activity in March and April of this year. As shown above, inventory levels continued to decline (slightly) over the past month -- and are now down 1.6% as compared to a year ago at this time. We are likely to see these inventory levels start to rise over the next few months. OK, now for some action items.... SELLERS: All of the snow in your yard should be melted within 24 to 48 hours. If you are going to be listing your home for sales this Spring, consider trying to get the advantage of getting your house on the market early, when you'll have less competition from other sellers. Let's meet (soon!) to discuss timing, pricing, marketing and what else you should consider doing to prepare your home for the market. BUYERS: We will see lots of exciting listings coming on the market in the next 30 - 60 days. Are you ready? Have you talked to a lender to become prequalified? Have we met to discuss your hopes, goals and dreams and your next home? Let's start looking at some houses now so that when your dream house comes on the market you have a good context for whether it is a good deal or a great deal. Above all, if you will be buying or selling soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire March 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, if you're interested in working with me to buy or sell a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you can always reach me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or 540-578-0102. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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