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Does lingering snow keep housing inventory low? |
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Have you heard? We might get another 6 inches of snow!?! I have met with a variety of homeowners over the past two weeks who are planning to put their houses on the market "this Spring" -- though the timing is coming into question, with this snow that just won't seem to melt. And....we're apparently going to get some more tomorrow. Which begs the question - are we seeing significantly lower inventory levels than we usually see at this time of year based on the snowfall? In short, not necessarily. Above, you'll see that current inventory levels (546 homes for sale) are just about the same spot they were a year ago. Though, you might recall that we also had a rather bitter winter last year -- so perhaps these 550/546 level is a depressed level compared to a normal level of around 600 - 650 based on 2012 and 2013? All I can say is that I'll be glad (as will my seller clients) when the snow has all come and gone, and the grass starts getting greener, and the flowers start to bloom. | |
What did home buyers buy in February 2015? |
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How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month? | |
Home Sales Preview: February 2015 |
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Looking back at sales in recent months we find that.... Sales during 4 out of the last 5 months exceeded sales in the same month from the prior year, with January 2015 being even with January 2014. The current month, however, has thus far not been as exciting. We'll need to see quite a few more sales recorded in the MLS over the next few days (that closed in February) in order to come up on par with last February. Stay tuned for my monthly market report, or feel free to catch up by reviewing last months' market report. | |
Townhouse (duplex, condo) buyers from 2008 may have to wait until 2018 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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Yesterday I ran an analysis on single family home values -- which suggested that home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price. Today, we're answering a similar question for townhouses.... So, let's say one bought a townhouse in 2008or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a townhouse to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your townhouse depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2005) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their townhouse -- and people who bought between 2006 and 2010 have a lower home value today. Townhouse buyers in recent years (2011-2013) are doing just fine. So, back to the question at hand -- how long it will take townhouses to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. This analysis shows that....
And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
Home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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OK, my apologies in advance for the slightly depressing nature of this blog post. This is the third in a series of three -- and I'm only going here because someone (Brad!?!) asked the question, so I thought I'd run the analysis to shed some light on his inquiry. Brad's question.... So, let's say one bought a house in 2009 (hypothetically, of course, right?!)... Or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a house to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)? Not that you have a crystal ball, but in general?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your home depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2004) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their home -- and most people who bought since then do not have a higher home value today. That is because after single family home values peaked in 2006, they have been slowly (slowly!!) drifting downward since that time. (details here) So, back to Brad, he is wondering how long it will take homes to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. Working our ways sort of backwards, this analysis shows that....
OK, enough for now. Hopefully this is a helpful look at the implications of shifting market values over time. If you have a question about the value of your home, please let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you to give you some specific feedback pertinent to your home -- as compared to the generalities referenced above. And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. P.S. Don't like the harsh realities presented herein? Complain to Brad. :) | |
Recent townhouse buyers should be smiling! |
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As a continuation of yesterday's analysis, it is worth pointing out that townhouse buyers over the past three years (2011-2013) should be quite pleased with their purchase. Their townhouse is likely to be worth 6% - 13% more than when they bought it -- based on overall increases we have seen in the median sales price of attached dwellings over the past several years. As noted yesterday, the chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Of course, your townhouse may have performed (from a value perspective) differently than this chart would suggest. These calculations are based on median sales prices during the given time periods. | |
If you bought in X then your house is likely now worth Y |
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The chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Several key points to take away from this chart....
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Signing Contracts in the Snow |
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This snowfall has nothing on last year's bitter, winter cold temperatures -- at least as far as home sales go. As noted above, there were significantly fewer contracts signed between the first 45 days of the year in 2014 (86 contracts) as compared to the previous year (101 contracts) and as compared to this year (122 contracts). | |
Archive of Monthly Market Reports |
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Are you curious about the housing trends of yesteryear? Explore my monthly market reports back through 2009 via DropBox.... Click here to access my archive of Monthly Market Reports on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market. | |
Median Sales Prices Finally (finally!?!!) hit $180K |
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For most of the last three years, the 12-month median sales price has been floating between $173K and $176K. Over the past six months it has started to slowly rise..... Finally -- it has hit $180,000. Read quite a bit more about our local market in my entire February 2015 real estate market report online, or by downloading the PDF. | |
February 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Before we get to my monthly report the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, I encourage you to check out WalkThroughThisHome.com - which highlights the fantastic new technology I am now using to market properties in this area. OK, now, back to the housing market report. As usual, you can jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... As shown above, home sales declined 10% in January 2015 as compared to last January, though the 47 home sales seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during January 2015 was the same number we saw in January 2013 -- and more than in January 2012. The slightly slower start in January was accompanied by HUGE increases in the median and average sales price in January 2015 - which is exciting....until we look back at January 2013 and it becomes clear that the January 2014 median and average sales price figures were abnormally low. As shown above, the 47 home sales we saw in January 2015 fit in well with previous January sales trends. We are likely to see 50 to 60 sales in February and March before things really start to take off in April. As shown above, inventory levels have fallen over the past year -- so early sellers (listing now or soon) may still have the benefit of exposing their property to the current pool of buyers when those buyers do not have many other options of homes to purchase. Inventory levels will likely stay relative low for the next 30 to 60 days. As usual, quite a few (37%) homes that sell are doing so in 90 days or less. This, again, emphasizes the importance of pricing your home appropriately for the market, preparing it well to sell, and marketing it thoroughly and professionally. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire February 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
Buying a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County |
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If you are considering the purchase of a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you'll likely want to know about all of the townhouse communities that might be of interest, as well as knowing recent sales prices in those communities, current availability, etc. Find all of that information, and more, at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com. | |
What did buyers buy in January 2015? |
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How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month? | |
Home Sales Preview: January 2015 |
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Looking back at sales in recent months we find that....
The current month, however, has thus far not been as exciting. We'll need to see quite a few more sales recorded in the MLS over the next few days (that closed in January) in order to come up on par with last January. Stay tuned for my monthly market report, or feel free to catch up by reviewing last month's report. | |
Monthly housing costs on the rise |
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It had to happen eventually. The analysis above shows the monthly cost of financing 80% of the purchase price for a median priced home over the past ten years. A few observations....
The increases in monthly housing costs over the past two years are not surprising, because....
As a buyer, you still have a great opportunity to lock in some relatively low monthly costs of homeownership -- and there is some value in acting sooner rather than later, as these costs are likely to continue to increase over the next few years. Here's the data behind the graph.... A few notes....
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Home Sales Back In Line With Population? |
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The Weldon Cooper Center just released their 2014 Population Estimates and Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2014 Population Estimates:
If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,050 - 1,100 home sales. Read today's Daily News Record article for more commentary on these new population estimates. | |
What are the odds that a contract will result in a closing? |
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On average, six out of every seven contracts results in a closing. In some ways, that is great -- 87% seems like a pretty proportion of contracts to successfully close. However, it flipping it around, it isn't the most exciting news in the world to realize that one out of every seven contracts fails. Common reasons for a contract to fall apart include:
Whether you are buying or selling, we need to discuss and anticipate these possibilities ahead of time, and make sure we are structuring contract contingencies to best protect your interests. Of note, this analysis is not 100% precise. Technically, some of the 2014 closings are based on 2013 contracts, some of the 2013 closings are based on 2012 contracts, etc. That said, these differences usually balance themselves out from year to year. | |
Finding the Best Deals in Harrisonburg |
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I recently created HarrisonburgAssessments.com, which analyzes the relationship between sales prices and assessed values. And then it hit me -- what if we compared list prices to assessed values -- might we find the best buying opportunities in and around Harrisonburg? Introducing . . . . BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com! Are the 30 properties on this new website REALLY the best deals in Harrisonburg? Possibly. The properties featured on BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com are being offered at a low list price compared to their assessed value. This is likely to mean that they are a "good deal" -- though if their assessed value happens to be high (relative to their market value) then the deal won't be as sweet. As always, consult a Realtor (such as myself) for expert advice on whether any particular property really is a great deal. BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com is simply shuffling some good prospects to the top of the pile for your consideration. What are you waiting for? Go check it out at BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
Homes that sell do so relatively speedily |
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As shown above, 37% of homes that sold in 2014 closed within 90 days of being listed for sale. Homes that are prepared well for the market (repairs, improvements, staging), and priced well (know thy market) and are marketed well, will often sell relatively quickly. All that said, don't forget that there are some factors outside of your control as a seller. | |
How do Assessed Values compare to Market Values? |
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How do Assessed Values compare to Market Values? Wonder no longer! You can now find out via HarrisonburgAssessments.com. You'll want to visit this new site for full details, but here is a quick snapshot.... Find out more about the relationship between market values and assessed values at HarrisonburgAssessments.com. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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