Analysis
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What are home values likely to do over the next few years? |
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 Based on recent trends, I believe we will see 2% - 4% increases per year in the median sales price over the next few years. If we take this year's YTD median sales price ($182,250) and use a 3% per year metric, here's what the next few years would look like....
That would mean that a median priced home ($182K) may increase in value by about $17,000 over the next three years. | |
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May 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report |
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 Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 205 Weavers Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  Above you will note that we are seeing many market improvements in 2015....
As shown above, February, March and April 2015 home sales have all surpassed the same month in 2014. We are likely to see 100+ home sales per month over the next 5 or 6 months as we continue through the Spring and into the Summer selling season. OK -- one last tidbit for you before I make you go read the full online market report, or download the PDF....
As shown above, more buyers (109) signed contracts in April 2015 than in April 2014 (107). This continues the trend of increased market activity in 2015 and is likely to lead to strong months of sales during May and June. OK, that's it for now. I'll hit some high points here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com in coming days. This month has been a bit of a whirlwind, in part because of the new local MLS. If you study my reports intently from month to month, you'll see some new data making its way into the mix -- more on that soon. Read the full May 2015 Harrisonburg Housing Market Report online or by downloading the PDF. And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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The balance between buyers and sellers in our local housing market |
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 (this one deserves a larger image, click here to view it) Q: Have we reached a balance between buyers and sellers in our local housing market? A: We're not quite there, but we are a lot closer than we have been anytime in the past six years! Here's the methodology behind the chart above....
Read more about the local housing market in my most recent monthly housing market report....  Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF. | |
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April 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 1344 Meadowlark Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  There were quite a few very positive overall market indicators this month, especially considering we are now working with all 1st Quarter home sales data....
 Buyers signed 25% more contracts in the first quarter of 2015 than in the first quarter of 2014. This likely bodes well for the pace of closed sales in April and May of this year.  Overall, inventory levels are down 5% as compared to where we were a year ago -- but that statistic masks an interesting contrast:
For regular readers of my market report, you'll find everything a bit mixed up this month -- but hopefully the new organization will be more helpful for you as you study the market. My monthly report is now organized into the following categories.....
OK, that's it for the summary -- read the rest of my market report online or by downloading the full PDF. And above all, if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
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Home Sales Profile of Dayton, VA |
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 Looking to purchase a home in Dayton, VA? Understand the market first!  As shown above, the number of homes sold in Dayton in any given year fluctuates quite a bit more than in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as a whole. Over the past three years we have seen an average of 17 home sales per year in the Town of Dayton. Of note, there are more than 17 homes currently for sale in in Dayton!  With a small number of home sales per year in the town of Dayton, we also see quite a bit more variability in the median price of the homes that sell. That is not to say that home values bounce up and down from year to year in Dayton - but more so that the median sales price fluctuates quite a bit based on which homes actually sell in a given year. Find homes for sale in Dayton, VA here. | |
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What did home buyers buy in March 2015? |
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How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in March 2015?
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March 2015 continues trend of increasing home sales |
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 We still have another few days when March 2015 home sales will be reported, but we have already seen more sales this year (56) than during the month of March last year (55). This continues the trend of improving monthly home sales. Now, 10 out of the past 12 months have shown the same number of more home sales than in the same month during the previous year. | |
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High End Home Sales Relatively Stable in 2014 |
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Exploring home sales over $500K, we see that home sales levels in 2014 stayed relatively on track with where they were in 2013....  Despite the drop from 20 to 18 sales over $500K, the $600K+ market stayed completely stable....  And the sale of $700K+ homes actually increased....  As a side note, you may recall that 2014 marked the first $1M+ home sale (in the MLS) since 2010. Looking for a full listing of all the $500K homes currently for sale? Check out HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com. | |
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Two (of four) price ranges are well balanced (between buyers and sellers) in our local housing market. |
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 Six months of housing supply is considered to be an indicator of a balanced housing market. That is to say that if we look at the average number of buyers buying per month (I prefer to look at it over a 12 month period) and then divide that into the number of active listings in that price range....
As shown above, we're in a relatively well balanced state in the "$0 - $200K" price range (we have been for a while now) and we have recently become much more balanced in the $300K - $400K price range due to some recent recovery in that segment of our local market. Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF.... | |
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The most quickly recovering price range is.... |
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 This might surprise you, but the price range that has seen the most significant year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales is homes priced between $300K and $400K. Anyone want to volunteer some theories on why we're seeing this recovery in this price range at this time in the market? Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF....  | |
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March 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 12108 Rabbits Foot Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  First, the big picture trends thus far this year show signs of a healthy, growing market....
 Both January and February of this year appear as "middle of the pack" months when put in the context of 2012, 2013 and 2014. The sales trajectory we see in March and April will be a good indicator of how the rest of this year will turn out. Last year, we experienced somewhat slower than expected home sales all the way until May when the monthly sales pace started popping up above previous years. I am hopeful we will see an earlier start to the 2015 market.  Hooray for lots of buyers in February 2015 -- signing contracts, that is. A whopping 98 contracts were signed in February 2015, compared to only 75 last February. This is an excellent indicator that we should see strong (closed) sales activity in March and April of this year.  As shown above, inventory levels continued to decline (slightly) over the past month -- and are now down 1.6% as compared to a year ago at this time. We are likely to see these inventory levels start to rise over the next few months. OK, now for some action items.... SELLERS: All of the snow in your yard should be melted within 24 to 48 hours. If you are going to be listing your home for sales this Spring, consider trying to get the advantage of getting your house on the market early, when you'll have less competition from other sellers. Let's meet (soon!) to discuss timing, pricing, marketing and what else you should consider doing to prepare your home for the market. BUYERS: We will see lots of exciting listings coming on the market in the next 30 - 60 days. Are you ready? Have you talked to a lender to become prequalified? Have we met to discuss your hopes, goals and dreams and your next home? Let's start looking at some houses now so that when your dream house comes on the market you have a good context for whether it is a good deal or a great deal. Above all, if you will be buying or selling soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire March 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, if you're interested in working with me to buy or sell a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you can always reach me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or 540-578-0102. | |
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Does lingering snow keep housing inventory low? |
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 Have you heard? We might get another 6 inches of snow!?! I have met with a variety of homeowners over the past two weeks who are planning to put their houses on the market "this Spring" -- though the timing is coming into question, with this snow that just won't seem to melt. And....we're apparently going to get some more tomorrow. Which begs the question - are we seeing significantly lower inventory levels than we usually see at this time of year based on the snowfall? In short, not necessarily. Above, you'll see that current inventory levels (546 homes for sale) are just about the same spot they were a year ago. Though, you might recall that we also had a rather bitter winter last year -- so perhaps these 550/546 level is a depressed level compared to a normal level of around 600 - 650 based on 2012 and 2013? All I can say is that I'll be glad (as will my seller clients) when the snow has all come and gone, and the grass starts getting greener, and the flowers start to bloom. | |
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What did home buyers buy in February 2015? |
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 How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month?  | |
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Home Sales Preview: February 2015 |
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 Looking back at sales in recent months we find that.... Sales during 4 out of the last 5 months exceeded sales in the same month from the prior year, with January 2015 being even with January 2014. The current month, however, has thus far not been as exciting. We'll need to see quite a few more sales recorded in the MLS over the next few days (that closed in February) in order to come up on par with last February. Stay tuned for my monthly market report, or feel free to catch up by reviewing last months' market report. | |
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Townhouse (duplex, condo) buyers from 2008 may have to wait until 2018 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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 Yesterday I ran an analysis on single family home values -- which suggested that home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price. Today, we're answering a similar question for townhouses.... So, let's say one bought a townhouse in 2008or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a townhouse to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your townhouse depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2005) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their townhouse -- and people who bought between 2006 and 2010 have a lower home value today. Townhouse buyers in recent years (2011-2013) are doing just fine. So, back to the question at hand -- how long it will take townhouses to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. This analysis shows that....
And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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 OK, my apologies in advance for the slightly depressing nature of this blog post. This is the third in a series of three -- and I'm only going here because someone (Brad!?!) asked the question, so I thought I'd run the analysis to shed some light on his inquiry. Brad's question.... So, let's say one bought a house in 2009 (hypothetically, of course, right?!)... Or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a house to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)? Not that you have a crystal ball, but in general?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your home depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2004) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their home -- and most people who bought since then do not have a higher home value today. That is because after single family home values peaked in 2006, they have been slowly (slowly!!) drifting downward since that time. (details here) So, back to Brad, he is wondering how long it will take homes to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. Working our ways sort of backwards, this analysis shows that....
OK, enough for now. Hopefully this is a helpful look at the implications of shifting market values over time. If you have a question about the value of your home, please let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you to give you some specific feedback pertinent to your home -- as compared to the generalities referenced above. And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. P.S. Don't like the harsh realities presented herein? Complain to Brad. :) | |
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Recent townhouse buyers should be smiling! |
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 As a continuation of yesterday's analysis, it is worth pointing out that townhouse buyers over the past three years (2011-2013) should be quite pleased with their purchase. Their townhouse is likely to be worth 6% - 13% more than when they bought it -- based on overall increases we have seen in the median sales price of attached dwellings over the past several years. As noted yesterday, the chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Of course, your townhouse may have performed (from a value perspective) differently than this chart would suggest. These calculations are based on median sales prices during the given time periods. | |
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If you bought in X then your house is likely now worth Y |
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 The chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Several key points to take away from this chart....
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Signing Contracts in the Snow |
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 This snowfall has nothing on last year's bitter, winter cold temperatures -- at least as far as home sales go. As noted above, there were significantly fewer contracts signed between the first 45 days of the year in 2014 (86 contracts) as compared to the previous year (101 contracts) and as compared to this year (122 contracts). | |
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Archive of Monthly Market Reports |
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 Are you curious about the housing trends of yesteryear? Explore my monthly market reports back through 2009 via DropBox.... Click here to access my archive of Monthly Market Reports on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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