Analysis
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Median Sales Prices Finally (finally!?!!) hit $180K |
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 For most of the last three years, the 12-month median sales price has been floating between $173K and $176K. Over the past six months it has started to slowly rise..... Finally -- it has hit $180,000. Read quite a bit more about our local market in my entire February 2015 real estate market report online, or by downloading the PDF. | |
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February 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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 Before we get to my monthly report the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, I encourage you to check out WalkThroughThisHome.com - which highlights the fantastic new technology I am now using to market properties in this area. OK, now, back to the housing market report. As usual, you can jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  As shown above, home sales declined 10% in January 2015 as compared to last January, though the 47 home sales seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during January 2015 was the same number we saw in January 2013 -- and more than in January 2012. The slightly slower start in January was accompanied by HUGE increases in the median and average sales price in January 2015 - which is exciting....until we look back at January 2013 and it becomes clear that the January 2014 median and average sales price figures were abnormally low.  As shown above, the 47 home sales we saw in January 2015 fit in well with previous January sales trends. We are likely to see 50 to 60 sales in February and March before things really start to take off in April.  As shown above, inventory levels have fallen over the past year -- so early sellers (listing now or soon) may still have the benefit of exposing their property to the current pool of buyers when those buyers do not have many other options of homes to purchase. Inventory levels will likely stay relative low for the next 30 to 60 days.  As usual, quite a few (37%) homes that sell are doing so in 90 days or less. This, again, emphasizes the importance of pricing your home appropriately for the market, preparing it well to sell, and marketing it thoroughly and professionally. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire February 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Buying a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County |
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 If you are considering the purchase of a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you'll likely want to know about all of the townhouse communities that might be of interest, as well as knowing recent sales prices in those communities, current availability, etc. Find all of that information, and more, at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com. | |
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What did buyers buy in January 2015? |
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 How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month?
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Home Sales Preview: January 2015 |
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 Looking back at sales in recent months we find that....
The current month, however, has thus far not been as exciting. We'll need to see quite a few more sales recorded in the MLS over the next few days (that closed in January) in order to come up on par with last January. Stay tuned for my monthly market report, or feel free to catch up by reviewing last month's report. | |
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Monthly housing costs on the rise |
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 It had to happen eventually. The analysis above shows the monthly cost of financing 80% of the purchase price for a median priced home over the past ten years. A few observations....
The increases in monthly housing costs over the past two years are not surprising, because....
As a buyer, you still have a great opportunity to lock in some relatively low monthly costs of homeownership -- and there is some value in acting sooner rather than later, as these costs are likely to continue to increase over the next few years. Here's the data behind the graph....
A few notes....
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Home Sales Back In Line With Population? |
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 The Weldon Cooper Center just released their 2014 Population Estimates and Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2014 Population Estimates:
If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,050 - 1,100 home sales. Read today's Daily News Record article for more commentary on these new population estimates. | |
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What are the odds that a contract will result in a closing? |
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 On average, six out of every seven contracts results in a closing. In some ways, that is great -- 87% seems like a pretty proportion of contracts to successfully close. However, it flipping it around, it isn't the most exciting news in the world to realize that one out of every seven contracts fails. Common reasons for a contract to fall apart include:
Whether you are buying or selling, we need to discuss and anticipate these possibilities ahead of time, and make sure we are structuring contract contingencies to best protect your interests. Of note, this analysis is not 100% precise. Technically, some of the 2014 closings are based on 2013 contracts, some of the 2013 closings are based on 2012 contracts, etc. That said, these differences usually balance themselves out from year to year. | |
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Finding the Best Deals in Harrisonburg |
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 I recently created HarrisonburgAssessments.com, which analyzes the relationship between sales prices and assessed values. And then it hit me -- what if we compared list prices to assessed values -- might we find the best buying opportunities in and around Harrisonburg? Introducing . . . . BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com! Are the 30 properties on this new website REALLY the best deals in Harrisonburg? Possibly. The properties featured on BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com are being offered at a low list price compared to their assessed value. This is likely to mean that they are a "good deal" -- though if their assessed value happens to be high (relative to their market value) then the deal won't be as sweet. As always, consult a Realtor (such as myself) for expert advice on whether any particular property really is a great deal. BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com is simply shuffling some good prospects to the top of the pile for your consideration. What are you waiting for? Go check it out at BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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Homes that sell do so relatively speedily |
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 As shown above, 37% of homes that sold in 2014 closed within 90 days of being listed for sale. Homes that are prepared well for the market (repairs, improvements, staging), and priced well (know thy market) and are marketed well, will often sell relatively quickly. All that said, don't forget that there are some factors outside of your control as a seller. | |
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How do Assessed Values compare to Market Values? |
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 How do Assessed Values compare to Market Values? Wonder no longer! You can now find out via HarrisonburgAssessments.com. You'll want to visit this new site for full details, but here is a quick snapshot....  Find out more about the relationship between market values and assessed values at HarrisonburgAssessments.com. | |
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Sales of Building Lots Finally (Slowly) Improving |
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 After a huge spike in sales (408 lot sales in 2004) and in median prices ($99,900 in 2006), the sales of building lots cooled quite a bit between 2004 and 2009. The last few years, have shown slow but steady growth in this segment of our market -- 60 . . . 61 . . . 79 . . . 83 sales over the past four years. This has also resulted in stability in the median sales price, which has been right around $55,000 for the past five years. The next question is -- where (and when) will we see the next new development of single family home residential lots.... | |
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We are again starting the year with a six month supply of homes for sale, a sign of a balanced market |
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 For the second year in a row we are starting out in January with a six month supply of homes for sale, which is traditionally seen as a sign of a balanced housing market. A few years ago (2009-2011) we were consistently starting the year with enough homes on the market for every buyer that would buy in that year. That equates to 12 months of housing supply, and those were years of having a significantly oversupplied market -- which caused sales prices to decline and gave buyers the upper hand in negotiations. In 2015, we should expect that buyers and sellers will have relatively equal amounts of negotiating power, depending on the other factors affecting the sale. Important Notes: 1. The 2015 sales (1083) is an estimate of the number of sales we will see this year. Read more here. 2. The number of months of housing supply available varies by price range. See my full market report for further details. | |
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24% Increase in Showings (July through December) |
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 Showings were up again in December 2014 -- showing a 20% increase over December 2013. And looking at the second half of 2014, there was a 24% year-over-year increase over the number of showings in 2013. Exciting times! All that said, there is (clearly) quite a seasonal decline in the number of overall showings in November and December, which is likely to continue into January. | |
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Predictions for the 2015 Real Estate Market in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Here are my official predictions for the 2015 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market....
Who else would like to make a prediction? Click here for a larger version of my prediction graph. | |
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Despite overall market improvement, single family home prices shift slightly downward |
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 Despite increases in the number of single family homes selling per year over the past four years (yellow bars above), the median price of single family home sales (blue line above) has drifted downward by 1% per year over the past two years. | |
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Final 2014 Report Shows 3% More Homes Sold at 2% Higher Prices |
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 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  Here's the big news -- all of the data is in for 2014 and over the past year our market has seen....
 As is to be expected, there are significantly fewer homes on the market now as compared to this past summer -- buyers are choosing from 24% fewer homes today as compared to in July. Year-over-year, however, inventory levels are trending up slightly (+1.7%).  It is certainly easier to find a townhouse/duplex/condo these days than a single family home. Over the past year, inventory levels of single family homes have dropped 5%, while inventory levels of attached dwellings have increased 23%.  Foreclosures are significantly less of a problem in our local market (163 in 2014) as compared to some recent years (a peak of 270 in 2010).  Long-term mortgage interest rates continue to stay quite favorable -- currently below 4%, which has certainly contributed to plenty of buyer enthusiasm. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire January 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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What did buyers write contracts on in December 2014? |
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Quite a few buyers committed to buy properties last month. The graphics below show what those buyers chose to buy. And here are the lucky sellers whose homes are currently under contract.  | |
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Sales Preview, December 2014 |
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 Happy (almost) New Year! A few more December sales will likely still trickle into the MLS over the next week, likely helping December 2014 exceed December 2013 home sales levels. Stay tuned for a full analysis of December (and 2014) home sales in early January. | |
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Median Price Per Acre in Rockingham County |
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 As shown above, the price (per acre) of land sales in Rockingham County is starting to improve in several price ranges.
Read on for more details on the pace of land sales....
As shown above, the pace of sales of 5 to 10 acre parcels is (slowly) increasing.
As shown above, the pace of sales of 10 to 20 acre parcels is also slowly improving.
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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