Analysis
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Sales of Building Lots Finally (Slowly) Improving |
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After a huge spike in sales (408 lot sales in 2004) and in median prices ($99,900 in 2006), the sales of building lots cooled quite a bit between 2004 and 2009. The last few years, have shown slow but steady growth in this segment of our market -- 60 . . . 61 . . . 79 . . . 83 sales over the past four years. This has also resulted in stability in the median sales price, which has been right around $55,000 for the past five years. The next question is -- where (and when) will we see the next new development of single family home residential lots.... | |
We are again starting the year with a six month supply of homes for sale, a sign of a balanced market |
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For the second year in a row we are starting out in January with a six month supply of homes for sale, which is traditionally seen as a sign of a balanced housing market. A few years ago (2009-2011) we were consistently starting the year with enough homes on the market for every buyer that would buy in that year. That equates to 12 months of housing supply, and those were years of having a significantly oversupplied market -- which caused sales prices to decline and gave buyers the upper hand in negotiations. In 2015, we should expect that buyers and sellers will have relatively equal amounts of negotiating power, depending on the other factors affecting the sale. Important Notes: 1. The 2015 sales (1083) is an estimate of the number of sales we will see this year. Read more here. 2. The number of months of housing supply available varies by price range. See my full market report for further details. | |
24% Increase in Showings (July through December) |
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Showings were up again in December 2014 -- showing a 20% increase over December 2013. And looking at the second half of 2014, there was a 24% year-over-year increase over the number of showings in 2013. Exciting times! All that said, there is (clearly) quite a seasonal decline in the number of overall showings in November and December, which is likely to continue into January. | |
Predictions for the 2015 Real Estate Market in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Here are my official predictions for the 2015 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market....
Who else would like to make a prediction? Click here for a larger version of my prediction graph. | |
Despite overall market improvement, single family home prices shift slightly downward |
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Despite increases in the number of single family homes selling per year over the past four years (yellow bars above), the median price of single family home sales (blue line above) has drifted downward by 1% per year over the past two years. | |
Final 2014 Report Shows 3% More Homes Sold at 2% Higher Prices |
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I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... Here's the big news -- all of the data is in for 2014 and over the past year our market has seen....
As is to be expected, there are significantly fewer homes on the market now as compared to this past summer -- buyers are choosing from 24% fewer homes today as compared to in July. Year-over-year, however, inventory levels are trending up slightly (+1.7%). It is certainly easier to find a townhouse/duplex/condo these days than a single family home. Over the past year, inventory levels of single family homes have dropped 5%, while inventory levels of attached dwellings have increased 23%. Foreclosures are significantly less of a problem in our local market (163 in 2014) as compared to some recent years (a peak of 270 in 2010). Long-term mortgage interest rates continue to stay quite favorable -- currently below 4%, which has certainly contributed to plenty of buyer enthusiasm. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire January 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
What did buyers write contracts on in December 2014? |
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Quite a few buyers committed to buy properties last month. The graphics below show what those buyers chose to buy. And here are the lucky sellers whose homes are currently under contract. | |
Sales Preview, December 2014 |
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Happy (almost) New Year! A few more December sales will likely still trickle into the MLS over the next week, likely helping December 2014 exceed December 2013 home sales levels. Stay tuned for a full analysis of December (and 2014) home sales in early January. | |
Median Price Per Acre in Rockingham County |
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As shown above, the price (per acre) of land sales in Rockingham County is starting to improve in several price ranges.
Read on for more details on the pace of land sales.... As shown above, the pace of sales of 5 to 10 acre parcels is (slowly) increasing. As shown above, the pace of sales of 10 to 20 acre parcels is also slowly improving. | |
First Million Dollar (plus) Home Sale Since 2010 |
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Last month (November 2014) there a home sold in Lake Pointe for $1,025,000. This marked the first time since 2010 that a home has sold (per the HRAR MLS) for over $1,000,000 anywhere in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Not quite ready to spend $1,000,000 on your next home? Check out some excellent $500K+ homes at HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com. | |
Local Unemployment Rate Edges Down Below 5% |
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The local unemployment rate (Harrisonburg / Rockingham MSA) edged down to 4.8% in October 2014. That shows a slight decline from the several months prior -- as well as an overall improvement from a big picture perspective....
Low unemployment rates keep our local housing market healthy by keeping our foreclosure rate low along with not creating too many desperate sellers who sell at any price and affect pricing trends. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out my full December 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3339 Deavers Lane | |
Positive Long Term Trends Over The Past Six+ Months |
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There is a lot going on in the graph above.... This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year's worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Of note, over the past six to eight months, we've seen two things happen.... 1. Median Prices jumped up from their usual $175K spot (where they've been for a few years) to levels closer to $178K or $179K. This is shown with the green line in the yellow shaded box. 2. The pace of home sales started increasing again, surpassing the 1,000 sales per year mark again, after having seen a decline in early 2014. This is shown with the orange line in the yellow shaded box. Both of these are long term trends that show sustained health and growth in our local real estate market. For even more analysis of our local housing market, check out my full December 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. | |
Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Up 2%, Prices Up 1% |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3339 Deavers Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, the big picture trends of what has been happening this year in our local housing market are quite positive, even if not yet to the magnitude that some homeowners would prefer....
We will certainly be seeing fewer buyers per month over the next few months, however, as shown above, there will be fewer sellers in the market hoping for those buyers to commit to their properties. Inventory levels are up 3.4% year over year, but are amidst what is a typical seasonal decline during the late Fall to early Winter months. Why are we a seeing steadily increasing sales pace, and (slowly) increasing sales prices? One main reason is that we are seeing fewer and fewer distressed sales -- foreclosures, short sales, etc. As shown above, home sales have been steadily increasing for several years, and the rate of foreclosures has been steadily decreasing. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire December 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
77 Home Sellers Ratified Contracts in November 2014 |
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And here is what they were selling.... | |
Sales Preview, November 2014 |
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We'll give it a few more days for sales to be reported, but thus far, it is not clear whether we will see a year-over-year increase in home sales in November 2014. | |
What styles of homes could I purchase in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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If you're looking for a Victorian, Log House, Cabin, A-Frame, Dutch Colonial or Tudor --- you won't have many options! The list above shows the breakdown of currently active listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, showing that most (56%) of the homes that are for sale are ranches (28%), townhouses (14%) or contemporary homes (14%). Any surprises on this list? | |
Showings Strong in November after slower October |
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One measure of future performance of our local real estate market is how many homes are being viewed by buyers. The data above is an analysis of showings of Funkhouser Real Estate Group listings over the past several months. A few things to note....
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The only price range seeing year over year improvement in sales pace |
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Take a look at the graph above. You'll note that the only price range seeing year over year improvement in sales pace is the $300K - $400K price range. The under $200K and the $200K - $300K price range are seeing no change in sales pace -- and the over $400K price range is seeing a declining sales pace. Read more about the current state of the local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
Local housing market continues to rebound in October 2014 |
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Featured Property: 4570 Magnolia Ridge Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First and foremost -- wow -- September and October home sales have been STRONG in 2014! Those two months alone have pulled the YTD pace of home sales even with (and beyond) the 2013 pace of home sales. We certainly had a slow start to the year (particularly in Feb, Mar, Apr) but the last two months (Sep, Oct) have really made the difference in the pace of home sales this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Take a look at how the past two months of home sales (107, 107) have far exceeded any recent September and October sales pace. Yes, folks, you heard me correctly -- 2014 YTD home sales (882) have now surpassed 2013 YTD home sales (866). This increase is still relatively small (+1.85%) but it certainly beats the deficit we've been working with for the past nine months. Of note, the YTD median sales price has also increased (+1.45%) in 2014 -- and the time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has declined by 3.3% over the past year to 117 days. Despite colder weather on the horizon, we likely don't have to worry about the pace of home sales cooling off too quickly. As shown above, 94 buyers made buying decisions (signed contracts) in October 2014 -- as compared to only 70 such buyers one year ago in October 2013. As such, we are likely to see another strong month of home sales in November 2014. There are many factors that have created this upswing in home sales activity in 2014 (and particularly September and October) and one of them is the remarkably low mortgage interest rates. The national average for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage dipped back below 4% in October 2014 -- for the first time in over a year. Finally, some price trends we've been waiting so long to see -- a modest improvement in median sales price. Perhaps we'll even hit a median sales price of $180K this year? That would finally bring us back to where we were in 2010. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire November 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
What did home buyers buy in October 2014? |
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I'm finding 94 properties in the MLS that went under contract in October 2014. Here is what those 94 buyers decided to buy last month.... | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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