Analysis
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Sales Preview, October 2014 |
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Well, this should help 2014 YTD sales. Contracts were up 31% in October 2014 as compared to contracts in October 2013. More analysis coming after the month closes out. | |
Revamped HarrisonburgTownhouses.com now features aerial images and live analysis of sales trends |
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A few years ago, I created HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, a website providing comprehensive information about the main townhouse communities in and around Harrisonburg, Virginia. Today, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been revamped and relaunched with an entirely new format and now featuring an aerial photo of each community and live analysis of sales pace and price trends. Take a look, and let me know what you think, or if you have any recommendations for further improvements. This is a sampling of some of the information you will find for each townhouse community.... Explore more at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com. | |
Analysis of Current Listings (Active and Under Contract) |
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Housing inventory numbers will likely fall 20% over the next few months. There are currently 844 active and under contract listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here's a look at how those break down.... Search for New Listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Or, browse houses with recent price reductions. | |
Fewer new homes selling but at higher prices (per SF) |
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Significantly fewer new single family homes are selling these days -- but the price per square foot of these sold homes is starting to edge upwards. The median price per square foot is now above $130 again in 2014, even though the number of new homes sold in 2014 is likely to be a good bit lower than in 2013. Learn more about recent market trends in my October 2014 market report.... Featured Property: 1207 Three Springs Road, McGaheysville, VA Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF. | |
Housing inventory levels likely to fall 20% over next 3 months |
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If last year is any indication, housing inventory levels will be declining by 20% over the next three months. By the end of the year, we're likely to be down to around 550 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Buyers -- If you'll be buying over the next few months, you'll have fewer and fewer option as we continue through the Fall and into the Winter. Sellers -- If you're keeping your house on the market, you'll have somewhat less competition over the next few months as inventory levels thin out. Learn more about recent market trends in my October 2014 market report.... Featured Property: 1207 Three Springs Road, McGaheysville, VA Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF. | |
September Sales Surge (+33%) Shows Continued Strength of Local Housing Market |
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Featured Property: 1207 Three Springs Road, McGaheysville, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... As shown above, August home sales were a bit deceiving. It appeared that after record high sales in May, June and July, that August was an indication that the strong home sales market would not continue through 2014. September sales, however, certainly provides new hope that in fact our year to date sales will end up about the same place as they were in 2013. As shown above, given the strength of September sales, this year's year-to-date sales (773) have almost caught back up to where we were at this time last year (780). The next question on most people's minds is how home prices are doing. As shown above, we have seen slow (slow!) gains in median home sales prices over the past several years. The stability (not a decline) is good, but I think most homeowners wish property values would start to increase a bit more quickly. If you are planning to put your house on the market this Fall, it is important to look at trends in your particular price range. As shown above, inventory levels are increase for homes under $300K, but are decreasing for homes over $300K. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire October 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
Home Sales Profile of Massanutten Resort |
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Looking to purchase a home in Massanutten Resort? Understand the market first! As shown above, there has been quite a bit more recovery of the Massanutten Resort market over the past five years than the overall housing market (Harrisonburg & Rockingham County). While City/County home sales may not hit 2013 levels this year, it appears that Massanutten Resort home sales will fly past last year's sales levels. Despite increases in sales volume over the past several years at Massanutten Resort, home prices have not been faring as well. There has been an increase in the overall City/County median sales price over the past year, but no so in Massanutten Resort. Interested in learning more about the Massanutten Resort housing market? Feel free to email me with questions, or explore homes currently for sale in Massanutten Resort. | |
What did home buyers buy in September 2014? |
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I'm finding 102 properties in the MLS that went under contract in September 2014. Here is what those 102 buyers decided to buy last month.... | |
Contracts Seeming Steady in September 2014 |
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On this, the last day of September 2014, let's take a quick look at contracts this past month as a preview of things to come. As you can see, above, there will be at least 100 contracts in September 2014 --- which marks a slight increase over last September's 96 contracts -- and the previous September's 98 contracts. Stay tuned for my full market report in early October. | |
With 676 homes for sale, will I have 676 great properties to choose from? |
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As shown above, many homes currently listed for sale have already been on the market for some time, picked over by all of the current buyers in the market. That said, it's possible that one of these homes is the PERFECT house for you, and that seller has been patiently waiting nine months for YOU, the perfect buyer for the house. As we start your home search, we'll first look through the homes currently for sale (realizing that they won't all be great and exciting options) and then we'll start to monitor new listings as they come on the market. | |
The Seasonality of Home Sales . . . Selling in the Fall |
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Even if you missed the hot Spring and Summer real estate markets, you will still have a good chance of selling this Fall. As shown above, there were still quite a few home sales in the Fall. And given the number of contracts that have been coming together over the past 60 days, it seems likely that this trend will continue in 2014. If you are planning to sell your home this Fall, let's try to go ahead and take some photos now to show green grass and full trees.... | |
Showings remain strong as we roll into Fall |
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Showing activity remains strong in through August and September -- a promising leading indicator for market activity we may see later on this Fall. * September 2014 data is extrapolated from 9/1/2014 - 9/16/2014 data. | |
Fewer Affordable Homes Available For Sale |
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The biggest shift in homes available for sale has been in the lowest price range in our market, under $200K homes. There are now 30% fewer homes for sale in this price range as compared to three years ago. This shift in the lowest price range is the most significant shift as compared to the other three price ranges shown above. The only price range in which we are seeing increased inventory levels is in the $400K + price range. | |
Despite the overall decline in sales, the market is not totally lackluster |
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As shown above, despite a decline in the number of home sales in this area, and a tiny decline in median sales price, we may actually be seeing an increase in home values as explored through changes in price per square foot. Read the entire Daily News Record article about our local housing market for further commentary and perspective. Hot July Housing Market Cooled In August Daily News Record, September 9, 2014 | |
Fluctuating Inventory Levels by Property Type |
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click here for a larger version of this graph As shown above, the number of homes for sale fluctuates greatly through the year --- but the degree of fluctuations differs between single family homes and attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condos). Single Family Homes 36% increase in homes for sales between Dec 2013 and Jun 2014. Duplexes / Townhouses / Condos 13% increase in homes for sales between Dec 2013 and Jun 2014. Thus, we are likely to see inventory declines over the next few months --- but the majority of those declines will be in single family homes. | |
Median Sales Prices Stable Despite 5% YTD Decline in Home Sales |
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Featured Property: 3273 Barrington Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... If you can sort through all of the lines and arrows above, you'll note that August 2014 home sales (101) fell short as compared to August 2013 (112). After three great months in a row (May, Jun, Jul) it seemed that August was going to push us over the top and catch us up in 2014 to last year's pace of home sales. Not so. Maybe in September?? There is, in fact, some cause for optimism. As shown above, there was a 19% increase in contracts between August 2013 and August 2014 --- and the annual pace of contract signing (1,169) is ever so slightly above where it was a year ago. Amidst slightly slower home sales, and slightly higher contract numbers, inventory levels (as shown above) are holding steady. We will likely start to see these inventory levels starting to decline as we continue through the Fall. Despite sales declining (5% YTD) sales prices are staying relatively steady, as shown above. This graph is measuring a "rolling 12 month" value for both the number of and median price of home sales in our area. Care to read about all of the exciting details of this month's market report? You can read it online or download the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
High end home sales lagging slightly behind in 2014 |
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Looking at high end home sales ($500K or higher) it would appear that the pace of sales in 2014 won't necessarily match that of 2013.... As shown above, home sales over $500K bounced back considerably in 2013. Perhaps some of that was pent up demand from previous years? It seems unlikely that we'll end up with 20 sales over $500K in 2014. As shown above, home sales over $600K also are not faring as well this year as compared to last year. The graph above would certainly lead us to believe that home sales over $700K will definitely take a hit in 2014. However, it's not all bad news, as there are currently four homes priced over $700K that are under contract.... | |
What did buyers buy in August 2014? |
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I'm finding 118 properties in the MLS that went under contract in August 2014 that are either still under contract, or have closed. Here is what those 118 buyers decided to buy last month.... | |
16% Increase in Contract Activity |
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It's the last business day of the month, so let's take a quick peek at how things are shaping up this month. As noted above, there have been 119 contracts signed thus far in August 2014 -- though that number may still increase further. That marks a 16% improvement over the 103 contracts that were signed last August. Thus far, it seems that Fall 2014 will continue to be a strong home sales market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
Nearly half of all sellers provide buyers with closing cost assistance |
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As you can see above, an increasing percentage of real estate transactions have some sort of "seller concession" -- which is usually a credit from the seller to the buyer to help pay for closing costs. Sometimes it could also be related to repairs that have not been completed. I suppose that while it is true that an increasing number of sellers are providing closing cost assistance to buyers -- it is also likely true (perhaps even truer) that an increasing number of buyers need closing cost assistance. How much money is changing hands here? Let's take a look.... | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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