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62% of our home sales market is under $200K |
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![]() A few fast facts for you....
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An analysis of current residential listing inventory |
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There are 888 active and under contract listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here's a look at how those break down.... ![]() | |
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How long might it take to sell a home priced over $400K? |
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![]() Technically, it could take quite a while -- as there is a 25 month supply of these homes currently on the market. What does this mean? Let's examine it....
As you can see from the chart above, this 25-month supply is roughly equivalent to where we were a year ago (24-month supply) and a much better place than where we were two years ago (45-month supply). This final tidbit might be the most interesting, however.... Homes sold in the past 12 months for more than $400K sold with a median of 117 days on the market. How could this be, you might ask? Where is the disconnect? Many of the 95 homes actively listed for sale over $400K will not necessarily sell in the next 12 months. As such, we have a high supply of these homes (25 months worth) but the homes that actually sell do so relatively quickly (median of 4 months). | |
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Rising Number of Home Sales Per Trustee Sale |
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![]() Not only are there fewer foreclosures happening (252 in 2012 declined to 222 in 2013) there are also fewer foreclosure when compared to the number of home sales. As shown above....
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Looking closer at contracts, a leading market indicator |
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![]() As mentioned yesterday, July 2014 home sales hit an 82-month high, likely due in part to the large number of properties that went under contract in June 2014. Despite this high number of July 2014 home sales, the year-to-date figures still have 2013 home sales slightly ahead of this year....
So, what can we conclude here?
Stay tuned for my monthly market report next month where we'll (hopefully, probably, possibly) see that we have closed the gap in sales pace. | |
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Local Home Sales Surge to 82 Month High in July 2014 |
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![]() Featured Property: 4105 Kaleb Drive, Penn Laird, VA 22846 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and July 2014 showed incredibly high sales that ALMOST caught the 2014 YTD pace of home sales up with last year. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() First, of course, the leading story of the day --- July 2014 home sales (120) marked the highest number of homes sales in a single month seen anytime in the past 82 months. The most recent month when there have been more than 120 home sales was....August 2007! ![]() Looking a bit further (above) at our usual monthly indicators, it is important to note that despite strong sales in July, the year-to-date pace of home sales in 2014 (564 sales) is still 4% behind where we were at this time last year (587 sales). This is likely a result of a slow start to 2014 with a particularly cold and blustery winter, though strong May, June and July home sales are helping the YTD numbers improve. Also shown above, median sales prices are staying steady (-0.36%) and homes are selling more quickly than last year with an 11% decline in median days on market. ![]() Inventory levels continue to trend upwards, with a 4.3% year-over-year increase -- though we are likely to start seeing the number of homes for sale start to decline in the next 30 to 60 days. ![]() Median sales prices have remained relatively stable over the past few years, but as shown above, home values might secretly be increasing, as the median price per square foot has been quietly sneaking up towards $110/SF. Further treats you'll find in my full market report (online or PDF) include....
Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Two out of five homes that sell do so within three months |
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![]() Two out of five homes (39%) sell within the first 90 days that they are on the market. But wait -- that's not to say that they "go under contract" within 90 days -- they are listed, go under contract, and close (!!) within 90 days. That means that there continue to be a significant number of sellers who are willing to price their homes reasonably, prepare their homes well, and choose to work with Realtors who will market their homes thoroughly and professionally. As you are getting ready to sell your home, we need to delve into all three of those areas -- how will we price the home, what will you do (condition) to prepare your house for the market, and how will we market your home. Price, Condition, Marketing. | |
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Pace of 2014 Home Sales Continues To Creep Up On 2013 |
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![]() At the start of this month, home sales for the year were down 7% from last year. July, thus far, has shown further gains --- as this year's pace of home sales is now only 5% down from last year. Stay tuned....the remainder of the summer market may yet help us catch back up to last year's pace of home sales! | |
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More buyers are viewing properties this Spring and Summer than were doing so last year |
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![]() After a slow February, March and April --- as it pertains to showings --- you can see that there have been many more buyers in the market this year during May, June and July as compared to the same months last year. * July 2014 data is extrapolated from 7/1/2014-7/22/2014 data. | |
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Home values going up despite sales prices going down? |
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![]() Tracking median sales prices can sometimes be deceiving....
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Buyers are finding more single family homes for sale, but significantly fewer townhouses, duplexes and condos |
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![]() Buyers are finding significantly more (+13%) single family homes to choose from these days (as compared to a year ago) but significantly fewer (-18%) townhouses, duplexes and condos. | |
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Local Housing Market Heats Up in June 2014 |
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![]() Featured Property: 7894 McGaheysville Road, Penn Laird, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and the local housing market started heating up in June 2014. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() As shown above, there were several encouraging signs in June 2014....
Care for some even more exciting news? June 2014 home sales (108) were the highest month of June home sales seen anytime recently. Thus, the record high number of home sales in May and June is starting to make up for the disappointingly low number of home sales in March and April. Care for some even MORE exciting news? A record number of home buyers signed contracts in June 2014 -- marking an astonishing, surprising, remarkable 51% increase over June 2013. ![]() As shown above, despite strong sales in May and June, we're still tracking 7% behind the pace of 2013 home sales. We'll have to wait and see if the remainder of 2014 (spurred on by strong contracts in June 2014) can help us meet and/or surpass last year's count of 1,014 home sales. Further treats you'll find in my full market report (online or PDF) include....
Care to read about all of these juicy details (and more!) in my full 30-page market report? You can read it online or download the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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The pace of high end ($400K+) home sales in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() I typically break our market down into four price segments when looking at trends in home sales....
The graph above shows the trends in sales of homes over $400K when analyzing the average number of homes sold per month in a rolling twelve month period. A few observations....
For further analysis of home sales over $400K, check out HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com -- or email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and we can discuss your house particularly. | |
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June Home Sales Preview |
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![]() June home sales have seemed strong thus far in 2014, but as it turns out, we're right on par with last June -- OK, technically, slightly ahead of last June. Review last month's market report for a broader picture of the health of our local housing market. | |
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How many home sales should we expect each year? |
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![]() It wasn't normal to have 1,600+ home sales per year --- but we did, at the peak of the housing boom. It wasn't normal to have < 800 home sales per year --- but we did, at the valley of the housing bust. Now, the question is --- what is a normal or typical amount of homes to be sold in any given year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? 900? 1000? 1100? 1200? Last year, our market raced up to an annual sales pace of over 1,000 home sales per year. It seemed that we would continue to see this annual pace of home sales accelerate --- perhaps to 1100/year or 1200/year. Thus far in 2014, however, we have not seen than 1000+ trend continue. Perhaps we're looking around 950 home sales this year, and then back up to 1000+ territory in 2015? | |
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Was 2013 a new trajectory, or an abnormality? |
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![]() OK -- this is as clearly as I can put it....
It could have been the new trajectory --- and perhaps 2014 home sales will catch back up later this year, after having been slowed down by wintry weather early in 2014. Or perhaps, 2013 was an abnormality --- and the pace of home sales in 2014 will not catch up to the fast pace of 2013. Only time will tell.... | |
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Small May Sales Surge Might Mean Market Still Mostly Stable |
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![]() Featured Property: 2944 Crystal Spring Lane, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and things are starting to look slightly rosier, but it's still not as wonderful of a year of sales as we saw in 2013. Click here to read the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights.... ![]() The good news, as shown above, is that there were 99 home sales in May --- which is ever so slightly more (+2) than last May. Even with this slight improvement in the month of May, 12.6% fewer homes have sold thus far in 2014 as compared to 2013. After a strong market recovery last year, many (most?) people assumed we would see further market recovery this year --- both in the pace and price of sales. One theory is that the abnormally cold and snowy winter created a slower start to the year. We'll have to wait to see if that theory holds water as we move through the rest of the year. If that were to be true, I believe we would have seen more of an improvement in May, but I'm willing to patiently (?) wait to see what June home sales will show. Another theory is that a backlog of buyers (many more than normal) bought in 2013, and that the pace of home sales in 2014 is returning to the trend we were otherwise seeing in 2011 - 2012. ![]() Also in the "pretty exciting, but don't order the party bagel from Mr. J's yet" category -- the 99 home sales we saw in May was actually the strongest month of May sales in recent history. That's good news, even if it does beat the old record of 97 by only two home sales. ![]() There is good and bad news when examining the pace at which contracts are being signed this year....
And if those words didn't jump off the page at you and give you hope and enthusiasm for the weekend ahead, then take look through the full report that offers lots of colorful graphs that are bound to inform and entertain. You can read it online here or download the PDF here. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Contracts in May 2014 Almost Sets New Record |
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![]() May 2014 nearly set a new record for the number of contracts signed in a single month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above, there were 136 contracts --- just shy of last year's 143 contracts in May 2013. Hopefully, this will help the somewhat slow start to the 2014 housing market. | |
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Will May 2014 Contracts Revive The 2014 Market? |
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![]() As shown above, year-to-date home sales are down this year (233) as compared to last year (284). Many suspect that the long, cold winter may have made the first few months of the year slower than they would have otherwise been. Per that theory, we should see a huge rebound in contracts (now / recently / soon) to help the 2014 market catch back up with where the 2013 market was last year. Let's see what we're seeing thus far.... April contract numbers were strong in 2014, but not as strong as in 2013....
Now, let's look at the first 15 days of May, this year versus last year....
As you can see, over the past 45 days buyers have been buying at the same pace (actually a bit slower) than last year. Thus far we're not seeing a rebound of higher buying numbers than last year at this time. So, the big question -- we've seen an 18% decline in YTD sales so far in 2014 -- will that remain at -18% for the rest of the year? Will 2014 pull even for no gain or loss? Somewhere in between? Theories, predictions and guesses are welcome! | |
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Sellers believe the local housing market is recovering |
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![]() The graph above examines the trend in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham over the past seven years. After three years of declining inventory levels (2011, 2012, 2013) we are now finally seeing inventory levels starting to increase again. This likely means....
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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