Analysis
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With 676 homes for sale, will I have 676 great properties to choose from? |
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 As shown above, many homes currently listed for sale have already been on the market for some time, picked over by all of the current buyers in the market. That said, it's possible that one of these homes is the PERFECT house for you, and that seller has been patiently waiting nine months for YOU, the perfect buyer for the house. As we start your home search, we'll first look through the homes currently for sale (realizing that they won't all be great and exciting options) and then we'll start to monitor new listings as they come on the market. | |
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The Seasonality of Home Sales . . . Selling in the Fall |
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 Even if you missed the hot Spring and Summer real estate markets, you will still have a good chance of selling this Fall. As shown above, there were still quite a few home sales in the Fall. And given the number of contracts that have been coming together over the past 60 days, it seems likely that this trend will continue in 2014. If you are planning to sell your home this Fall, let's try to go ahead and take some photos now to show green grass and full trees.... | |
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Showings remain strong as we roll into Fall |
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 Showing activity remains strong in through August and September -- a promising leading indicator for market activity we may see later on this Fall. * September 2014 data is extrapolated from 9/1/2014 - 9/16/2014 data. | |
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Fewer Affordable Homes Available For Sale |
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 The biggest shift in homes available for sale has been in the lowest price range in our market, under $200K homes. There are now 30% fewer homes for sale in this price range as compared to three years ago. This shift in the lowest price range is the most significant shift as compared to the other three price ranges shown above. The only price range in which we are seeing increased inventory levels is in the $400K + price range. | |
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Despite the overall decline in sales, the market is not totally lackluster |
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 As shown above, despite a decline in the number of home sales in this area, and a tiny decline in median sales price, we may actually be seeing an increase in home values as explored through changes in price per square foot. Read the entire Daily News Record article about our local housing market for further commentary and perspective. Hot July Housing Market Cooled In August Daily News Record, September 9, 2014 | |
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Fluctuating Inventory Levels by Property Type |
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 click here for a larger version of this graph As shown above, the number of homes for sale fluctuates greatly through the year --- but the degree of fluctuations differs between single family homes and attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condos). Single Family Homes 36% increase in homes for sales between Dec 2013 and Jun 2014. Duplexes / Townhouses / Condos 13% increase in homes for sales between Dec 2013 and Jun 2014. Thus, we are likely to see inventory declines over the next few months --- but the majority of those declines will be in single family homes. | |
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Median Sales Prices Stable Despite 5% YTD Decline in Home Sales |
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 Featured Property: 3273 Barrington Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  If you can sort through all of the lines and arrows above, you'll note that August 2014 home sales (101) fell short as compared to August 2013 (112). After three great months in a row (May, Jun, Jul) it seemed that August was going to push us over the top and catch us up in 2014 to last year's pace of home sales. Not so. Maybe in September??  There is, in fact, some cause for optimism. As shown above, there was a 19% increase in contracts between August 2013 and August 2014 --- and the annual pace of contract signing (1,169) is ever so slightly above where it was a year ago.  Amidst slightly slower home sales, and slightly higher contract numbers, inventory levels (as shown above) are holding steady. We will likely start to see these inventory levels starting to decline as we continue through the Fall.  Despite sales declining (5% YTD) sales prices are staying relatively steady, as shown above. This graph is measuring a "rolling 12 month" value for both the number of and median price of home sales in our area. Care to read about all of the exciting details of this month's market report? You can read it online or download the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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High end home sales lagging slightly behind in 2014 |
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Looking at high end home sales ($500K or higher) it would appear that the pace of sales in 2014 won't necessarily match that of 2013....  As shown above, home sales over $500K bounced back considerably in 2013. Perhaps some of that was pent up demand from previous years? It seems unlikely that we'll end up with 20 sales over $500K in 2014.  As shown above, home sales over $600K also are not faring as well this year as compared to last year.  The graph above would certainly lead us to believe that home sales over $700K will definitely take a hit in 2014. However, it's not all bad news, as there are currently four homes priced over $700K that are under contract....  | |
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What did buyers buy in August 2014? |
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I'm finding 118 properties in the MLS that went under contract in August 2014 that are either still under contract, or have closed. Here is what those 118 buyers decided to buy last month....  | |
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16% Increase in Contract Activity |
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 It's the last business day of the month, so let's take a quick peek at how things are shaping up this month. As noted above, there have been 119 contracts signed thus far in August 2014 -- though that number may still increase further. That marks a 16% improvement over the 103 contracts that were signed last August. Thus far, it seems that Fall 2014 will continue to be a strong home sales market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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Nearly half of all sellers provide buyers with closing cost assistance |
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 As you can see above, an increasing percentage of real estate transactions have some sort of "seller concession" -- which is usually a credit from the seller to the buyer to help pay for closing costs. Sometimes it could also be related to repairs that have not been completed. I suppose that while it is true that an increasing number of sellers are providing closing cost assistance to buyers -- it is also likely true (perhaps even truer) that an increasing number of buyers need closing cost assistance. How much money is changing hands here? Let's take a look....  | |
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62% of our home sales market is under $200K |
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 A few fast facts for you....
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An analysis of current residential listing inventory |
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There are 888 active and under contract listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here's a look at how those break down....  | |
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How long might it take to sell a home priced over $400K? |
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 Technically, it could take quite a while -- as there is a 25 month supply of these homes currently on the market. What does this mean? Let's examine it....
As you can see from the chart above, this 25-month supply is roughly equivalent to where we were a year ago (24-month supply) and a much better place than where we were two years ago (45-month supply). This final tidbit might be the most interesting, however.... Homes sold in the past 12 months for more than $400K sold with a median of 117 days on the market. How could this be, you might ask? Where is the disconnect? Many of the 95 homes actively listed for sale over $400K will not necessarily sell in the next 12 months. As such, we have a high supply of these homes (25 months worth) but the homes that actually sell do so relatively quickly (median of 4 months). | |
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Rising Number of Home Sales Per Trustee Sale |
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 Not only are there fewer foreclosures happening (252 in 2012 declined to 222 in 2013) there are also fewer foreclosure when compared to the number of home sales. As shown above....
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Looking closer at contracts, a leading market indicator |
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 As mentioned yesterday, July 2014 home sales hit an 82-month high, likely due in part to the large number of properties that went under contract in June 2014. Despite this high number of July 2014 home sales, the year-to-date figures still have 2013 home sales slightly ahead of this year....
So, what can we conclude here?
Stay tuned for my monthly market report next month where we'll (hopefully, probably, possibly) see that we have closed the gap in sales pace. | |
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Local Home Sales Surge to 82 Month High in July 2014 |
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 Featured Property: 4105 Kaleb Drive, Penn Laird, VA 22846 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and July 2014 showed incredibly high sales that ALMOST caught the 2014 YTD pace of home sales up with last year. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  First, of course, the leading story of the day --- July 2014 home sales (120) marked the highest number of homes sales in a single month seen anytime in the past 82 months. The most recent month when there have been more than 120 home sales was....August 2007!  Looking a bit further (above) at our usual monthly indicators, it is important to note that despite strong sales in July, the year-to-date pace of home sales in 2014 (564 sales) is still 4% behind where we were at this time last year (587 sales). This is likely a result of a slow start to 2014 with a particularly cold and blustery winter, though strong May, June and July home sales are helping the YTD numbers improve. Also shown above, median sales prices are staying steady (-0.36%) and homes are selling more quickly than last year with an 11% decline in median days on market.  Inventory levels continue to trend upwards, with a 4.3% year-over-year increase -- though we are likely to start seeing the number of homes for sale start to decline in the next 30 to 60 days.  Median sales prices have remained relatively stable over the past few years, but as shown above, home values might secretly be increasing, as the median price per square foot has been quietly sneaking up towards $110/SF. Further treats you'll find in my full market report (online or PDF) include....
Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Two out of five homes that sell do so within three months |
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 Two out of five homes (39%) sell within the first 90 days that they are on the market. But wait -- that's not to say that they "go under contract" within 90 days -- they are listed, go under contract, and close (!!) within 90 days. That means that there continue to be a significant number of sellers who are willing to price their homes reasonably, prepare their homes well, and choose to work with Realtors who will market their homes thoroughly and professionally. As you are getting ready to sell your home, we need to delve into all three of those areas -- how will we price the home, what will you do (condition) to prepare your house for the market, and how will we market your home. Price, Condition, Marketing. | |
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Pace of 2014 Home Sales Continues To Creep Up On 2013 |
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 At the start of this month, home sales for the year were down 7% from last year. July, thus far, has shown further gains --- as this year's pace of home sales is now only 5% down from last year. Stay tuned....the remainder of the summer market may yet help us catch back up to last year's pace of home sales! | |
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More buyers are viewing properties this Spring and Summer than were doing so last year |
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 After a slow February, March and April --- as it pertains to showings --- you can see that there have been many more buyers in the market this year during May, June and July as compared to the same months last year. * July 2014 data is extrapolated from 7/1/2014-7/22/2014 data. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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