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Puzzling start to 2014 for local housing market |
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![]() Featured Property: 1103 Dices Spring Road, Weyers Cave, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and thus far, 2014 is not as exciting of a year as 2013 was for our local housing market. Click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights.... ![]() 2013 was an encouraging year in the local housing market. After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we finally saw a (strong!) rebound in the home sales activity. Now, however, with four months of 2014 behind us, we are facing a very different trend when comparing year over year trends -- the pace of home sales has declined 18% year-over-year. This could be the result of the icy winter weather in 2014... but that is becoming a less likely theory as we move through Spring. The next theory I'll throw out is that 2013 was a rebound year, with higher than normal sales volume, and 2014 is is reverting back to the slow upward trend that began in 2011. Even though it's not highlighted in yellow above, we should also note that prices seem to be improving year-to-date, with a 3% increase in median sales price. ![]() Going back to the rebound theory -- the blue line in this graph shows the month-by-month sales experienced during 2013. As is quickly evident, last year's home sales were head and shoulders above any other recent year of home sales. Home sales this year (red) certainly look rather unexciting in comparison to last year (2013) though when taken within the context of 2012 (green) we see that there has been an improvement when looking at a 24 month differential. Again, this may indicate that 2013 was a year of our marketing bouncing back and burning through old inventory, but that the 2013 sales pace was not sustainable moving forward. Now, here are your teasers to encourage you to read the rest of this data filled report....
There's much, much more. Read it online (here) or download the PDF (here) and as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Buyers are signing lots of contracts thus far in May 2014 |
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![]() Contracts are being signed quickly in May 2014 (40 contracts in 8 days) --- which shows a solid upwards trend for the first five months of the year if we extrapolate to a potential total for May (155?) based on this strong pace of contract activity within the first week (+) of May. | |
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Inventory Up 17% Over the Past Two Months |
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![]() Finally, the weather is warming up, and homeowners are putting their houses on the market. Inventory levels are starting to increase in the typical spring surge. Good for buyers --- more options. Not quite as good for sellers --- more competition. | |
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Changes in Number of Homes For Sale, By Price Range |
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![]() Above you can see the changes in inventory levels over the past year in four price ranges.... Under $200K (-1%)
$200K - $300K (-15%)
$300K - $400K (+50%)
Over $400K (+13%)
Learn plenty more about our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Home Sales Still Soft at Start of Spring Selling Season |
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![]() Featured Property: 310 Victoria Drive, Bridgewater, VA 22812 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF. Below are a few highlights you might be interested to know about.... ![]() As shown above, home sales in March were the lowest that we have seen over the past several years. This is undoubtedly due to the absurdly low temperatures this winter PLUS the many snowfalls PLUS the many days that schools were closed. Now that the warmer weather is upon us we will hopefully see an increase in home sales come April and May. ![]() We also saw a smaller number (91) of buyers sign contracts during March as compared to last March (114) --- though an increase from March 2012 (87). Let's hope that the warm Spring days of April will lead to many (many!) buyers going to see houses and sign contracts. ![]() A significant part of whether buyers will write offers is related to whether they are finding compelling houses on the market -- and we're finally starting to see increases in inventory levels. These new listings will hopefully rejuvenate buyer interest and get them off of the sidelines and into the buying market. ![]() Amidst a few market indicators that aren't as positive as they could be, here is one bright spot --- sales prices of attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condominiums) are going UP! Want to know more? Get all the juicy details in the full report. Read it online or download the PDF. As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Average Number of Contracts in March 2014 |
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![]() Many people I talked to during March said it seemed as if LOTS AND LOTS of properties were going under contract during March. As it turns out (shown above) there were only 91 contracts signed during March 2014. This is roughly the average of the number of contracts seen per month during the previous six months of March. I had hoped for better --- though perhaps the shortage of buyers signing contracts is related to the low inventory levels, leaving buyers with a smaller number of choices than they would like to have. | |
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Inventory Levels Down Year Over Year |
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![]() Much to some home sellers' dismay, my post yesterday was merely an April Fools Day joke. So, where do we really stand as far as current inventory levels? There are more homes (+20) on the market as compared to a month ago --- but there are fewer homes (-29) on the market as compared to a year ago. Sellers -- you will likely have the least competition (from other sellers) now --- if you're listing your home this spring, consider doing so NOW! Buyers -- be encouraged, inventory levels are starting to increase, and you should have further options of homes to buy as we continue through the next 15, 30, 60 days. | |
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Inventory Levels Plummet As Warm Days Return |
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![]() Apparently, all we needed were a few warm days.... Inventory levels have drastically declined over the past week --- confirming that there really were plenty of home buyers in the market, but that they snow and frigid temperatures were holding them back. After inventory levels stayed relatively constant through the end of February, buyers came out in full force during the last week of March to write contracts on nearly every home on the market! There are now only 41 homes remaining in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! The only question that remains at this point is whether enough homeowners will put their homes on the market in April to replenish the supply of homes for sale..... ......oh, and I suppose the other remaining question is whether you fell for my not-really-believable-at-all April Fools joke. :) | |
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Which information sources do YOU use frequently during the home search process? |
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![]() Buyers across the country have spoken -- the graph above shows the information sources that are used "frequently" during the home search process. | |
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How will YOU compromise on your next home purchase? |
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![]() I will be working hard to find you the HOME OF YOUR DREAMS -- but statistics show (see above) that two-thirds of buyers have to compromise in some way on the home that they purchase. Of note, neighborhood and location don't seem to be areas where most buyers are willing to compromise. | |
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Cool Buying vs. Renting Tool from the New York Times |
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![]() Check out this cool buying vs. renting tool from the New York Times that gives you the ability to easily these two compare scenarios. In the sample property that I scoped out (above) it made sense to buy a $150K townhouse (instead of renting it for $900/m) if you were going to be in the home for 3 or more years. Click here to check it out, and let me know (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) if you would like to sit down to talk through these details together. | |
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Sellers negotiating less and less, on average |
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![]() In another sign of further stability in our local real estate market, sellers are negotiating less, on average, than they have in the past several years. The average "list price to sales price ratio" is now back up to 97% as shown above. A few observations, though....
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Mixed Signals in March 2014 Housing Market Report |
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![]() Featured Property: 4320 Wiltshire Street, Harrisonburg VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- and here are a few highlights you might be interested to know about.... ![]() FEBRUARY SALES DECLINE Perhaps as a result of the frigid temperatures, multiple snowfalls, and a record number of days without school, February home sales declined (to 51) below where we would expect them to be (67) based on last year's trajectory. ![]() SALES, PRICES, DAYS ON MARKET DOWN Due to a slow month of sales in February, year-to-date home sales are down 9.65% thus far in 2014 -- probably related to the weather. Median home prices also declined 5% over the past year -- probably related to the small sample size of only Jan + Feb data. In (possibly) better news, the time it takes to sell a home (days on market) fell 8% over the past year -- this is either a signal of a quickening pace in the market, or related to the small sample size of only Jan + Feb data. ![]() LISTING INVENTORY DECLINES AGAIN Despite fewer sales in February 2014 (compared to last Feb) the overall number of active listings on the market DECLINED this month. Either homeowners are taking their properties off the market ---- or the weather has delayed homeowners from listing their properties for sale. Even though I was wrong a month ago when I said this, I really do expect we'll see an increase in inventory over the next 30 days. Really. ![]() TOWNHOUSE (DUPLEX, CONDO) MARKET GROWING QUICKLY Every segment of the local housing market is different -- generalizations are helpful, but you need to dig deeper to see the facts that pertain to your property. As shown above, the pace of townhouse sales has quickly increased over the past several years (+46% in 2 Years) and median prices have also shot up (+13% in 2 Years). ![]() HIGH END MARKET BOOMING I will repeat myself --- every segment of the local housing market is different! As shown above, the high end market ($400K+) has seen a 139% increase in the pace of sales over the past year! OK, enough highlights for now -- there is plenty more inside the full report. As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. ![]() | |
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Why is our local real estate market recovering? |
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![]() Supply and Demand! More and more buyers.....fewer and fewer sellers. Eventually, this will also lead to some slow and steady increase in median sales prices. | |
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High End Home Sales Bounce Back in 2013 |
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![]() As shown above, after some slow years in 2011 and 2012, the over $500K housing market bounced back in 2013. ![]() The over $600K market had an even more dramatic recovery in 2013. Search for $500K+ homes at HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com. | |
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Population trends indicate housing market has more room to grow |
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![]() The population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is increasing. If we take the average of 2000 and 2001 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "usual" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,150 home sales -- which is still a decent amount of growth beyond the number of home sales (1,013) seen in 2013. And here is the data behind the graph....
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The best deals (compared to list prices) are behind us. |
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![]() It seems that 2011 and 2012 were the years when sellers had to negotiate the most off of their list price -- giving up over 5%, on average. Now, that has shifted down to less than 4%, and I expect that average amount of negotiating will continue to decrease through 2014. | |
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Did you sell your (over $300K) home in January 2014? |
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![]() Probably not. That's right -- there was only one (one!) home sale over $300K in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during January 2014. We should see those home sales starting to pick up soon, but as you can see, January is not typically a time when a lot of homes in this price range sell. | |
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Homes Sales Increase 9% in January 2014 |
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![]() Featured Property: 3050 Baybrook Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and home sales in January were higher than any of the previous three months of January.... ![]() After strong gains in the pace of home sales during 2013, we are likely to see continued strong home sales in 2014. Two factors that will likely contribute to a strong local housing market in 2014 are the low mortgage interest rates and declining unemployment rates.... ![]() ![]() Hopefully we will see some additional listings coming on the market in the Spring, as inventory levels are still quite low compared to previous years.... ![]() But wait, there is lots more news to read.... Click here to read the full February 2014 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. ![]() An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Long Term Mortgage Interest Rates Trending Down Again |
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![]() Will they keep going down? Lock in now....or soon! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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