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State of the Union |
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![]() Don't forget to watch the State of the Union tonight at 9PM. And let's take this opportunity to see how our local real estate market is doing as compared to where we were one year ago.
Stay tuned this evening for an update on the state of our nation, but our local housing market seems to be much improved over the past year. | |
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Updates sales trends on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com |
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![]() HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q4, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again. So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
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Price negotiability, pace of home sales seem highly correlated |
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![]() First, a disclaimer, I am not a statistician --- though I did take a fantastic stats class in grad school with Kevin Apple. That said, it sure would seem to me that there is a direct correlation between the pace of home sales, and the negotiability of home prices. Take a look at the graph above and let me know (online or offline) if you agree. Actual statisticians --- feel free to chime in. :) | |
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January Inventory vs. Full Year Home Sales |
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![]() As Todd Rhea so eloquently said in a comment on my blog post yesterday.... "This inventory analysis is a big deal for the local market. In 2009-2011 the local market entered the year with more gross inventory than homes that were sold in the following 12 months. This year for every inventory unit entering the year, there will likely be 2 sales in 2014. The impacts on price from Supply and Demand have never been repealed. With lower supply (inventory) and modestly growing demand, days on the market should continue to fall, and prices should increase in 2014."I agree wholeheartedly with Todd....
** Please note: The 2014 home sales shown in the graph above are a projection, not a promise. :) | |
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Listing inventory down 48% since 2010 peak |
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![]() Current active listing inventory (~529 properties for sale) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is at the lowest point since at least 2008 when I started tracking this data. The high point was in June 2010 when there were 1,015 homes for sale. Learn more about our local real estate market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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2013 Year in Review shows 17% Increase in Home Sales, 1% Increase in Sales Prices |
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Wow! What a year! 2013 has now drawn to a close, and we witnessed some exciting milestones in our local real estate market.....
![]() As noted above, in 2013....
![]() Home sales were solid through the year, finishing out (1,013) well above 2012 home sales levels (864). It seems likely that we will see somewhere between 1,050 and 1,100 home sales in 2014. ![]() Inventory levels continue to decline, which is typical for this time of year, though we are now seeing the lowest inventory levels we have seen in over 5 years. This has several effects:
![]() While we are still seeing more foreclosures (222 in 2013) than is historically normal for this area (50-100 per year), it is encouraging to see foreclosures starting to decline at the same time that home sales are increasing. This should result in greater market stability on into the future. ![]() Sellers -- you ought to be encouraged that you may need to negotiate less in 2014 (depending on how your property is priced) -- buyers only negotiated an average of 4.2% off of the (final) list price of properties in 2013, as compared to 5.3% in 2011. ![]() An astonishing 37% of homes that sold in 2013 closed within 90 days of having first been listed.....and an additional 29% sold in the following three months. This lead to an overall median of 120 days on the market for those homes that did sell in 2013 -- this does not account for homes that were listed in 2013 but did not sell. There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full January 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Understanding Real Estate Assessments |
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As recently published in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal.... It's that time of year again, when homeowners (at least in the City of Harrisonburg) are receiving notices of the reassessment of their property. As you strive to understand the new (or current) assessment of your property, let's have a brief refresher course on real estate assessments. First, many people (erroneously) believe that the assessment of their property is an indication of their home's value. In actuality, the assessed value of a property is the value assigned to the property by the local assessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay in taxes. Certainly, the assessed value is intended to be the precise value of your home – but it is quite possible that there is a disparity in this assessed value and market value. The market value of your home is the price at which it would sell in the current market. Sales Prices vs. Assessed Values in the City of Harrisonburg ![]() To better understand how assessed values relate to market value, I checked on the 2014 assessed value for each of the 328 properties that sold between January 1, 2013 and November 30, 2013. What I discovered, is that properties in the City of Harrisonburg sold, on average, for 97% of their assessed value. Looking a bit deeper, just over a third of City properties (39%) sold within 5% of their assessed value – the remaining 61% had a sales price that was more than 5% higher or lower than the assessed value. Sales Prices vs. Assessed Values in Rockingham County ![]() Performing the same analysis in Rockingham County, we discover that County properties are selling for slightly more than their assessed value (average of 106%) as compared to City properties that are selling for a bit less than their assessed value (average of 97%). Given the great variation in assessed values and market values, homeowners should not rely on their tax assessment for an understanding of their property's value. Furthermore, home buyers should not rely on assessed values to guide them in understanding the market value of a home that they might purchase. Both buyers and sellers should strive to understand the market value of a particular piece of real estate my analyzing similar homes that have recently sold and those currently on the market in a given neighborhood or price point. The relationship between assessed values and sales prices varies based on the price, size, age and location of the home. For a more thorough analysis of the topic, visit HarrisonburgAssessments.com. | |
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Two Days To Hit 1000 Home Sales |
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![]() With two days to go (Dec 30, 31) it seems likely that the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residentiall real estate market will close out the year with an exciting milestone -- meeting or exceeding 1,000 home sales in a year. This would be a 16% improvement over the pace of home sales last year, and the first time we would have seen 1,000 home sales in a year since 2007. | |
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One Third of Homes That Sell Do So Within 90 Days |
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![]() Homes that are selling these days are doing so relatively quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (35%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (30%) and we find that an amazing 65% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Has your home been on the market for more than 90 days without selling? More than 180 days? Here are some thoughts to consider.... If you want your home to sell faster, you may need to reduce the price | |
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Increasing Sales Plus Increasing Prices Equals |
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![]() At the request of one of my clients, I decided to take a look at the volume (dollars) of real estate sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past few years. As you'll see above, there has been a significant increase over the past two years, from $155MM (in 2011) to $190MM (in 2013) -- and we still haven't closed out 2013 yet. This shouldn't be too surprising, as we're seeing increasing sales (+14% YTD) and increasing prices (+2% YTD) so it is only natural that we'd see an increase in the overall volume of residential real estate sold in this area. Read more about our local housing market online.... HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com | |
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Steady Improvement in the Pace of Local Home Sales |
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![]() Is the local housing market improving? I'd say so. As shown above, there has been a steady increase in the pace of home sales over the past three years. This year (2013) has shown the most home sales (924) over the past three years --- without even including December sales! Perhaps we'll break 1000 home sales / year by the end of the year? Read more about our local housing market online.... HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com | |
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Understanding Assessments in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Learn More Here: City | County The ASSESSED VALUE of a property is the value assigned to the property by the local assessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay in taxes. The MARKET VALUE of a property is the price at which a property would sell in the current market. As shown above, properties in the City of Harrisonburg tend to sell for a bit less than their assessed value.....while properties in Rockingham County tend to sell for a bit more than their assessed value. However -- there is a great deal of variance --- explore the data via... HarrisonburgAssessments.com | |
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Home Sales, Prices Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Featured Home: 1787 Broadridge Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and despite a slower than expected November, the full year of home sales data is still looking great. Click here to download the 28 page PDF, click here to read the full report online, or scroll down for some highlights. ![]() As shown above, November was a month of mixed indicators....
Contracts declined rather unexpected in October, which could have been a slowing down of our overall housing market after a fantastic first 10 months of the year --- but with a bit more data to now work with, I believe contract numbers were low in October due to buyer uncertainty during the temporary federal government shutdown. As shown above, November contracts bounced back, showing a 57% improvement over last November. Inventory levels continue to decline in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with only 584 properties currently on the market --- a 22% decline from two years ago, and a far cry from the 1,000+ properties on the market a year or so before that. These declines in inventory are helping to balance the market between buyers and sellers. ![]() There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full December 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Comparison of Assessments and Sales Prices in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() click here for more details I frequently hear from homeowners wondering why their assessed value is so high AND from other homeowners wondering why their assessed value is so low. Some homeowners know they could never sell their home for the assessed value, and others know they could it for more than the assessed value. So, to further understand assessed values, let's explore their relationship to sales prices. Click here to view a full comparison of 2013 Sales Prices and 2014 Assessed Values for the City of Harrisonburg. | |
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City SFH Assessments Down 1%, Sales Prices Up 3% |
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![]() As reported in today's Daily News Record, assessed values in the City of Harrisonburg stayed relatively stable over the past year. As shown above, the average assessed value of single family homes decreased 1% over the past year from $235,000 to $231,900. In the same time period, average sales prices increased by 3%. A few clarifying notes....
Read more about the latest update to City of Harrisonburg assessed values in the DNR article or read more about market values at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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2013 likely to have strongest home sales since 2007 |
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![]() This has certainly been a strong year of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- in the first 10.6 months of the year we have already surpassed annual sales for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. And with 41 more sales this year, we will have exceeded 2008 home sales as well. | |
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Maximum Negotiability in Home Prices.....Has Passed Us By |
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![]() You can still get a great deal on a house these days --- but the amount you can expect (on average) to negotiate is a bit lower than it was over the past two years. We're back to 2010 negotiability levels, and that trend is likely to continue. Read more about what's going on in our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Sales Boom at Hunters Ridge (and Camden Townes) |
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![]() After several (very!) slow years of condo sales at Hunters Ridge, there has been a rush of sales this year --- 13 as of 11/13/2013. Prices have come down a bit further this year, to a median of $56,250. ![]() Sales have also increased (slightly) at Camden Townes (Hunters Ridge Townhomes) -- and prices have started to tick upwards a bit to a median of $78,500. Here is all of the data.... ![]() Search for properties for sale in... Hunters Ridge or Camden Townes. | |
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Long Term (5Y) Changes in Sales Pace By Price Range |
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![]() Sometimes it's helpful to look back a bit further than the last 12-24 months. The data above illustrates how the pace of home sales has changed in four segments of our local market. Each data point shows the average number of sales per month in the previous 12 months. We find that.....
It is likely important to note that in this same 5-year timef rame, the median sales price declined 11% --- from $197,650 to $175,000. It is possible that this shift in home values contributed to the shifts shown above in the pace of sales in different price ranges. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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