Analysis
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How will YOU compromise on your next home purchase? |
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 I will be working hard to find you the HOME OF YOUR DREAMS -- but statistics show (see above) that two-thirds of buyers have to compromise in some way on the home that they purchase. Of note, neighborhood and location don't seem to be areas where most buyers are willing to compromise. | |
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Cool Buying vs. Renting Tool from the New York Times |
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 Check out this cool buying vs. renting tool from the New York Times that gives you the ability to easily these two compare scenarios. In the sample property that I scoped out (above) it made sense to buy a $150K townhouse (instead of renting it for $900/m) if you were going to be in the home for 3 or more years. Click here to check it out, and let me know (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) if you would like to sit down to talk through these details together. | |
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Sellers negotiating less and less, on average |
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 In another sign of further stability in our local real estate market, sellers are negotiating less, on average, than they have in the past several years. The average "list price to sales price ratio" is now back up to 97% as shown above. A few observations, though....
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Mixed Signals in March 2014 Housing Market Report |
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 Featured Property: 4320 Wiltshire Street, Harrisonburg VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- and here are a few highlights you might be interested to know about....  FEBRUARY SALES DECLINE Perhaps as a result of the frigid temperatures, multiple snowfalls, and a record number of days without school, February home sales declined (to 51) below where we would expect them to be (67) based on last year's trajectory.  SALES, PRICES, DAYS ON MARKET DOWN Due to a slow month of sales in February, year-to-date home sales are down 9.65% thus far in 2014 -- probably related to the weather. Median home prices also declined 5% over the past year -- probably related to the small sample size of only Jan + Feb data. In (possibly) better news, the time it takes to sell a home (days on market) fell 8% over the past year -- this is either a signal of a quickening pace in the market, or related to the small sample size of only Jan + Feb data.  LISTING INVENTORY DECLINES AGAIN Despite fewer sales in February 2014 (compared to last Feb) the overall number of active listings on the market DECLINED this month. Either homeowners are taking their properties off the market ---- or the weather has delayed homeowners from listing their properties for sale. Even though I was wrong a month ago when I said this, I really do expect we'll see an increase in inventory over the next 30 days. Really.  TOWNHOUSE (DUPLEX, CONDO) MARKET GROWING QUICKLY Every segment of the local housing market is different -- generalizations are helpful, but you need to dig deeper to see the facts that pertain to your property. As shown above, the pace of townhouse sales has quickly increased over the past several years (+46% in 2 Years) and median prices have also shot up (+13% in 2 Years).  HIGH END MARKET BOOMING I will repeat myself --- every segment of the local housing market is different! As shown above, the high end market ($400K+) has seen a 139% increase in the pace of sales over the past year! OK, enough highlights for now -- there is plenty more inside the full report. As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102.  | |
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Why is our local real estate market recovering? |
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 Supply and Demand! More and more buyers.....fewer and fewer sellers. Eventually, this will also lead to some slow and steady increase in median sales prices. | |
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High End Home Sales Bounce Back in 2013 |
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 As shown above, after some slow years in 2011 and 2012, the over $500K housing market bounced back in 2013.  The over $600K market had an even more dramatic recovery in 2013. Search for $500K+ homes at HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com. | |
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Population trends indicate housing market has more room to grow |
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 The population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is increasing. If we take the average of 2000 and 2001 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "usual" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,150 home sales -- which is still a decent amount of growth beyond the number of home sales (1,013) seen in 2013. And here is the data behind the graph....
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The best deals (compared to list prices) are behind us. |
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 It seems that 2011 and 2012 were the years when sellers had to negotiate the most off of their list price -- giving up over 5%, on average. Now, that has shifted down to less than 4%, and I expect that average amount of negotiating will continue to decrease through 2014. | |
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Did you sell your (over $300K) home in January 2014? |
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 Probably not. That's right -- there was only one (one!) home sale over $300K in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during January 2014. We should see those home sales starting to pick up soon, but as you can see, January is not typically a time when a lot of homes in this price range sell. | |
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Homes Sales Increase 9% in January 2014 |
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 Featured Property: 3050 Baybrook Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and home sales in January were higher than any of the previous three months of January....  After strong gains in the pace of home sales during 2013, we are likely to see continued strong home sales in 2014. Two factors that will likely contribute to a strong local housing market in 2014 are the low mortgage interest rates and declining unemployment rates....   Hopefully we will see some additional listings coming on the market in the Spring, as inventory levels are still quite low compared to previous years....  But wait, there is lots more news to read.... Click here to read the full February 2014 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Long Term Mortgage Interest Rates Trending Down Again |
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 Will they keep going down? Lock in now....or soon! | |
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State of the Union |
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 Don't forget to watch the State of the Union tonight at 9PM. And let's take this opportunity to see how our local real estate market is doing as compared to where we were one year ago.
Stay tuned this evening for an update on the state of our nation, but our local housing market seems to be much improved over the past year. | |
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Updates sales trends on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com |
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 HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q4, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again. So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
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Price negotiability, pace of home sales seem highly correlated |
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 First, a disclaimer, I am not a statistician --- though I did take a fantastic stats class in grad school with Kevin Apple. That said, it sure would seem to me that there is a direct correlation between the pace of home sales, and the negotiability of home prices. Take a look at the graph above and let me know (online or offline) if you agree. Actual statisticians --- feel free to chime in. :) | |
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January Inventory vs. Full Year Home Sales |
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 As Todd Rhea so eloquently said in a comment on my blog post yesterday.... "This inventory analysis is a big deal for the local market. In 2009-2011 the local market entered the year with more gross inventory than homes that were sold in the following 12 months. This year for every inventory unit entering the year, there will likely be 2 sales in 2014. The impacts on price from Supply and Demand have never been repealed. With lower supply (inventory) and modestly growing demand, days on the market should continue to fall, and prices should increase in 2014."I agree wholeheartedly with Todd....
** Please note: The 2014 home sales shown in the graph above are a projection, not a promise. :) | |
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Listing inventory down 48% since 2010 peak |
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 Current active listing inventory (~529 properties for sale) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is at the lowest point since at least 2008 when I started tracking this data. The high point was in June 2010 when there were 1,015 homes for sale. Learn more about our local real estate market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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2013 Year in Review shows 17% Increase in Home Sales, 1% Increase in Sales Prices |
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Wow! What a year! 2013 has now drawn to a close, and we witnessed some exciting milestones in our local real estate market.....
 As noted above, in 2013....
 Home sales were solid through the year, finishing out (1,013) well above 2012 home sales levels (864). It seems likely that we will see somewhere between 1,050 and 1,100 home sales in 2014.  Inventory levels continue to decline, which is typical for this time of year, though we are now seeing the lowest inventory levels we have seen in over 5 years. This has several effects:
 While we are still seeing more foreclosures (222 in 2013) than is historically normal for this area (50-100 per year), it is encouraging to see foreclosures starting to decline at the same time that home sales are increasing. This should result in greater market stability on into the future.  Sellers -- you ought to be encouraged that you may need to negotiate less in 2014 (depending on how your property is priced) -- buyers only negotiated an average of 4.2% off of the (final) list price of properties in 2013, as compared to 5.3% in 2011.  An astonishing 37% of homes that sold in 2013 closed within 90 days of having first been listed.....and an additional 29% sold in the following three months. This lead to an overall median of 120 days on the market for those homes that did sell in 2013 -- this does not account for homes that were listed in 2013 but did not sell. There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full January 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Understanding Real Estate Assessments |
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As recently published in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal.... It's that time of year again, when homeowners (at least in the City of Harrisonburg) are receiving notices of the reassessment of their property. As you strive to understand the new (or current) assessment of your property, let's have a brief refresher course on real estate assessments. First, many people (erroneously) believe that the assessment of their property is an indication of their home's value. In actuality, the assessed value of a property is the value assigned to the property by the local assessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay in taxes. Certainly, the assessed value is intended to be the precise value of your home – but it is quite possible that there is a disparity in this assessed value and market value. The market value of your home is the price at which it would sell in the current market. Sales Prices vs. Assessed Values in the City of Harrisonburg  To better understand how assessed values relate to market value, I checked on the 2014 assessed value for each of the 328 properties that sold between January 1, 2013 and November 30, 2013. What I discovered, is that properties in the City of Harrisonburg sold, on average, for 97% of their assessed value. Looking a bit deeper, just over a third of City properties (39%) sold within 5% of their assessed value – the remaining 61% had a sales price that was more than 5% higher or lower than the assessed value. Sales Prices vs. Assessed Values in Rockingham County  Performing the same analysis in Rockingham County, we discover that County properties are selling for slightly more than their assessed value (average of 106%) as compared to City properties that are selling for a bit less than their assessed value (average of 97%). Given the great variation in assessed values and market values, homeowners should not rely on their tax assessment for an understanding of their property's value. Furthermore, home buyers should not rely on assessed values to guide them in understanding the market value of a home that they might purchase. Both buyers and sellers should strive to understand the market value of a particular piece of real estate my analyzing similar homes that have recently sold and those currently on the market in a given neighborhood or price point. The relationship between assessed values and sales prices varies based on the price, size, age and location of the home. For a more thorough analysis of the topic, visit HarrisonburgAssessments.com. | |
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Two Days To Hit 1000 Home Sales |
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 With two days to go (Dec 30, 31) it seems likely that the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residentiall real estate market will close out the year with an exciting milestone -- meeting or exceeding 1,000 home sales in a year. This would be a 16% improvement over the pace of home sales last year, and the first time we would have seen 1,000 home sales in a year since 2007. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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