Analysis
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One Third of Homes That Sell Do So Within 90 Days |
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 Homes that are selling these days are doing so relatively quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (35%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (30%) and we find that an amazing 65% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Has your home been on the market for more than 90 days without selling? More than 180 days? Here are some thoughts to consider.... If you want your home to sell faster, you may need to reduce the price | |
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Increasing Sales Plus Increasing Prices Equals |
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 At the request of one of my clients, I decided to take a look at the volume (dollars) of real estate sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past few years. As you'll see above, there has been a significant increase over the past two years, from $155MM (in 2011) to $190MM (in 2013) -- and we still haven't closed out 2013 yet. This shouldn't be too surprising, as we're seeing increasing sales (+14% YTD) and increasing prices (+2% YTD) so it is only natural that we'd see an increase in the overall volume of residential real estate sold in this area. Read more about our local housing market online.... HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com | |
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Steady Improvement in the Pace of Local Home Sales |
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 Is the local housing market improving? I'd say so. As shown above, there has been a steady increase in the pace of home sales over the past three years. This year (2013) has shown the most home sales (924) over the past three years --- without even including December sales! Perhaps we'll break 1000 home sales / year by the end of the year? Read more about our local housing market online.... HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com | |
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Understanding Assessments in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Learn More Here: City | County The ASSESSED VALUE of a property is the value assigned to the property by the local assessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay in taxes. The MARKET VALUE of a property is the price at which a property would sell in the current market. As shown above, properties in the City of Harrisonburg tend to sell for a bit less than their assessed value.....while properties in Rockingham County tend to sell for a bit more than their assessed value. However -- there is a great deal of variance --- explore the data via... HarrisonburgAssessments.com | |
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Home Sales, Prices Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Featured Home: 1787 Broadridge Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and despite a slower than expected November, the full year of home sales data is still looking great. Click here to download the 28 page PDF, click here to read the full report online, or scroll down for some highlights.  As shown above, November was a month of mixed indicators....
Contracts declined rather unexpected in October, which could have been a slowing down of our overall housing market after a fantastic first 10 months of the year --- but with a bit more data to now work with, I believe contract numbers were low in October due to buyer uncertainty during the temporary federal government shutdown. As shown above, November contracts bounced back, showing a 57% improvement over last November.
Inventory levels continue to decline in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with only 584 properties currently on the market --- a 22% decline from two years ago, and a far cry from the 1,000+ properties on the market a year or so before that. These declines in inventory are helping to balance the market between buyers and sellers.  There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full December 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Comparison of Assessments and Sales Prices in the City of Harrisonburg |
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 click here for more details I frequently hear from homeowners wondering why their assessed value is so high AND from other homeowners wondering why their assessed value is so low. Some homeowners know they could never sell their home for the assessed value, and others know they could it for more than the assessed value. So, to further understand assessed values, let's explore their relationship to sales prices. Click here to view a full comparison of 2013 Sales Prices and 2014 Assessed Values for the City of Harrisonburg. | |
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City SFH Assessments Down 1%, Sales Prices Up 3% |
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 As reported in today's Daily News Record, assessed values in the City of Harrisonburg stayed relatively stable over the past year. As shown above, the average assessed value of single family homes decreased 1% over the past year from $235,000 to $231,900. In the same time period, average sales prices increased by 3%. A few clarifying notes....
Read more about the latest update to City of Harrisonburg assessed values in the DNR article or read more about market values at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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2013 likely to have strongest home sales since 2007 |
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 This has certainly been a strong year of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- in the first 10.6 months of the year we have already surpassed annual sales for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. And with 41 more sales this year, we will have exceeded 2008 home sales as well. | |
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Maximum Negotiability in Home Prices.....Has Passed Us By |
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 You can still get a great deal on a house these days --- but the amount you can expect (on average) to negotiate is a bit lower than it was over the past two years. We're back to 2010 negotiability levels, and that trend is likely to continue. Read more about what's going on in our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Sales Boom at Hunters Ridge (and Camden Townes) |
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 After several (very!) slow years of condo sales at Hunters Ridge, there has been a rush of sales this year --- 13 as of 11/13/2013. Prices have come down a bit further this year, to a median of $56,250.  Sales have also increased (slightly) at Camden Townes (Hunters Ridge Townhomes) -- and prices have started to tick upwards a bit to a median of $78,500. Here is all of the data....  Search for properties for sale in... Hunters Ridge or Camden Townes. | |
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Long Term (5Y) Changes in Sales Pace By Price Range |
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 Sometimes it's helpful to look back a bit further than the last 12-24 months. The data above illustrates how the pace of home sales has changed in four segments of our local market. Each data point shows the average number of sales per month in the previous 12 months. We find that.....
It is likely important to note that in this same 5-year timef rame, the median sales price declined 11% --- from $197,650 to $175,000. It is possible that this shift in home values contributed to the shifts shown above in the pace of sales in different price ranges. | |
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Inventory levels stabilizing? |
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 For several years now, there have been many more home sellers in the market than home buyers -- but this has been gradually changing has home sales have increased in pace, and inventory levels have declined. Now, it would seem that perhaps we are seeing inventory levels stabilize around 650 homes for sale, as we have only seen a 3% decline in inventory levels over the past year. Here is some context....
These significant declines in inventory levels have helped to restore a balance between buyers and sellers in our local real estate market. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Continue Upward Climb |
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 Featured Home: 2000 Marigold Circle, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and there is plenty to be excited about this Fall, though a few cautionary notes as well. Click here to download the 28 page PDF or read on for some highlights.  First, how exciting --- as shown above, the first 10 months of sales in 2013 have already matched the total number of home sales in 2012!  As shown above, October 2013 was the 10th month in a row (every month in 2013) when home sales exceeded the same month during the previous year. This steady increase has lead to the 21% YTD improvement in the pace of home sales.  One less than exciting note in this month's report is the decline (-22%) in contracts being signed by buyers during October 2013. This decline will likely result in lower home sales (closings) in November --- and may have partially been the result of the partial government shutdown in October.  There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full November 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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$600K+ home sales bouncing back |
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 Admittedly, there are still quite a few (38) homes for sale in this price range compared to the number that are selling (perhaps 9 or 10 per year) but it is encouraging to see buyer activity bouncing back in this price range. | |
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Updates sales trends on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com |
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 HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q3, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again. So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
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JMU enrollment continues to grow, but does not indicate a need for more off campus student housing |
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 JMU just published updated enrollment projections as recently approved by the State Council of High Education for Virginia. There are plenty of different figures that can be used to understand JMU enrollment, but the most pertinent relative to our local housing market is the "Total On-Campus Headcount" as shown in the graph above. This figure is the best reflection of the number of students who will need housing, either on JMU campus, or off campus. These figures, and their changes over time, are the best numbers to be using when analyzing the need for off campus student housing in Harrisonburg. First, as you can see, JMU is still growing and intends to keep growing for years to come. This is good in many ways for JMU, our local economy, our community, etc. The question that is of interest to me, however, is how this all relates to Harrisonburg's off campus student housing market. A lots can happen in 5 short years (2008-2013)....
Over the past five years, there has been an increase of 1,445 students needing housing....and during the same time frame, housing was built for 3,792 additional students. This has led to a significant oversupply of student housing, with real world implications such as....
And yet, at the same time....
Why did it all happen? So, we apparently have a tremendous oversupply of student housing in Harrisonburg -- many wonder why it happened. Read my theories here. Looking forward.... Given this new data (at the top of this post) about increases in JMU enrollment (Total On-Campus Headcount) what can we say or know about the future?
This is a lot of information -- if you have questions, feel free to email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Sellers Negotiating Less As Sales Pace Improves |
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 As home sales have improved over the past several years, sellers have negotiated less on their sales price. Of note....
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Local Foreclosures Likely to Decline 19% in 2013 |
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Local Home Sales Rise to New Heights |
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 Featured Home: 880 Mockingbird Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I have just released my October 2013 Real Estate Market Report for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Click here to download the 28-page PDF, or read on for some highlights.  Let's start with the big news.... The annualized pace of home sales has been steadily increasing over the past several years, but we have now passed the 1,000 home sales per year mark -- which we last experienced in October 2008! In all of 2012, there were only 864 home sales, so this is an indicator that home sales might surge past 1,000 for 2013 in its entirety.  Above you will note that after declining for several years, home prices are now heading back up. After a 1% increase between 2011 and 2012, we have seen a 2% increase thus far in 2013.  Buyers will be glad to note that mortgage interest rates have (remarkably) started to head back down again. We may not see any rates below 4%, but it does not appear that we're headed up to 5% yet either.  There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full October 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Local Real Estate Boom and Bust |
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 Two numbers for you to memorize....69 and 11.
A few other observations....
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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