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Inventory levels stabilizing? |
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![]() For several years now, there have been many more home sellers in the market than home buyers -- but this has been gradually changing has home sales have increased in pace, and inventory levels have declined. Now, it would seem that perhaps we are seeing inventory levels stabilize around 650 homes for sale, as we have only seen a 3% decline in inventory levels over the past year. Here is some context....
These significant declines in inventory levels have helped to restore a balance between buyers and sellers in our local real estate market. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Continue Upward Climb |
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![]() Featured Home: 2000 Marigold Circle, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- and there is plenty to be excited about this Fall, though a few cautionary notes as well. Click here to download the 28 page PDF or read on for some highlights. ![]() First, how exciting --- as shown above, the first 10 months of sales in 2013 have already matched the total number of home sales in 2012! ![]() As shown above, October 2013 was the 10th month in a row (every month in 2013) when home sales exceeded the same month during the previous year. This steady increase has lead to the 21% YTD improvement in the pace of home sales. ![]() One less than exciting note in this month's report is the decline (-22%) in contracts being signed by buyers during October 2013. This decline will likely result in lower home sales (closings) in November --- and may have partially been the result of the partial government shutdown in October. ![]() There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full November 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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$600K+ home sales bouncing back |
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![]() Admittedly, there are still quite a few (38) homes for sale in this price range compared to the number that are selling (perhaps 9 or 10 per year) but it is encouraging to see buyer activity bouncing back in this price range. | |
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Updates sales trends on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com |
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![]() HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q3, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again. So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
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JMU enrollment continues to grow, but does not indicate a need for more off campus student housing |
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![]() JMU just published updated enrollment projections as recently approved by the State Council of High Education for Virginia. There are plenty of different figures that can be used to understand JMU enrollment, but the most pertinent relative to our local housing market is the "Total On-Campus Headcount" as shown in the graph above. This figure is the best reflection of the number of students who will need housing, either on JMU campus, or off campus. These figures, and their changes over time, are the best numbers to be using when analyzing the need for off campus student housing in Harrisonburg. First, as you can see, JMU is still growing and intends to keep growing for years to come. This is good in many ways for JMU, our local economy, our community, etc. The question that is of interest to me, however, is how this all relates to Harrisonburg's off campus student housing market. A lots can happen in 5 short years (2008-2013)....
Over the past five years, there has been an increase of 1,445 students needing housing....and during the same time frame, housing was built for 3,792 additional students. This has led to a significant oversupply of student housing, with real world implications such as....
And yet, at the same time....
Why did it all happen? So, we apparently have a tremendous oversupply of student housing in Harrisonburg -- many wonder why it happened. Read my theories here. Looking forward.... Given this new data (at the top of this post) about increases in JMU enrollment (Total On-Campus Headcount) what can we say or know about the future?
This is a lot of information -- if you have questions, feel free to email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Sellers Negotiating Less As Sales Pace Improves |
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![]() As home sales have improved over the past several years, sellers have negotiated less on their sales price. Of note....
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Local Foreclosures Likely to Decline 19% in 2013 |
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Local Home Sales Rise to New Heights |
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![]() Featured Home: 880 Mockingbird Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I have just released my October 2013 Real Estate Market Report for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Click here to download the 28-page PDF, or read on for some highlights. ![]() Let's start with the big news.... The annualized pace of home sales has been steadily increasing over the past several years, but we have now passed the 1,000 home sales per year mark -- which we last experienced in October 2008! In all of 2012, there were only 864 home sales, so this is an indicator that home sales might surge past 1,000 for 2013 in its entirety. ![]() Above you will note that after declining for several years, home prices are now heading back up. After a 1% increase between 2011 and 2012, we have seen a 2% increase thus far in 2013. ![]() Buyers will be glad to note that mortgage interest rates have (remarkably) started to head back down again. We may not see any rates below 4%, but it does not appear that we're headed up to 5% yet either. ![]() There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full October 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. An Important Caveat: Yes, our overall housing market is improving. But no, that does not apply equally to all price ranges, locations and property types. We can chat about your specific property to see whether that segment of the market is performing better or worse than the overall market. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Local Real Estate Boom and Bust |
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![]() Two numbers for you to memorize....69 and 11.
A few other observations....
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What comes next for our local housing market? |
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When viewed from a long term perspective, every real estate has peaks and valleys – some larger than others. Our local housing market experienced a tremendous peak in 2005/2006 with home sales doubling (2000-2005), and home prices increasing 66% in just six years (2000-2006). The valley that has followed that peak has been a rough ride back down, with home sales falling 55% (2005-2010) and home prices falling 11% (2008-2011). During the last several years (2012, 2013) we have finally seen some strength and stability returning to our local housing market, though many still wondering what will come next. HOME SALES – Before the real estate bubble began to inflate, there were around 1,000 homes selling per year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (through the HRAR MLS). The population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County increased 16% between 2000 and 2010, so we might expect that 1,160 home sales per year may be the norm moving forward. While last year (2012) there were only 864 home sales in our local market, this year we seem poised to see around 1,050 home sales, based on the 22% year-to-date increase in sales activity. If we do indeed seen 1,050 home sales this year, we should be encouraged to observe that home sales likely could increase even further in 2014 towards that expected 1,160 – 1,200 range. HOME PRICES – Despite seeing a 66% increase in home prices from before the bubble (2000) to the peak of the bubble (2006) we have only seen an overall 8% decline in prices between that peak (2006) and today (2013 YTD). Furthermore, 2012 showed a 1% improvement in median sales prices, and this year we are seeing a 2% improvement in prices. Thus, it seems likely that the worst is behind us as far as price adjustments related to the housing boom and bust. That said, every neighborhood and price range is a bit different – there are still some price ranges (particularly high end homes) that are not yet seeing price recovery. INTEREST RATES – Arguably, the recent historically low mortgage interest rates have helped to spur on our local housing market over the past several years. The average mortgage interest rate for a 30 year mortgage dropped below 5% in late 2009, and then down below 4% in late 2011. After hitting an all-time low of 3.32% in late 2012, this average mortgage rate has risen to around 4.5%. Over the next year or two it seems safe to assume that we probably won't see rates as low as 4%, but we also probably won't see them rise as high as 6%. These rising interest rates have encouraged many buyers to go ahead and make a purchase if they have been considering doing so with an open ended time frame. Even if interest rates continue to rise to 5%, or even a bit beyond that, they will still be offering a great opportunity for buyers to lock in their housing costs at historically low levels. FORECLOSURES – Thankfully, our local area usually only sees 50 – 100 foreclosures per year based on what we were seeing between 2000 and 2007. After the real estate boom and bust, local foreclosures increased quite a bit, to a high of 270 in 2010. We are seeing significantly fewer foreclosures this year (141 YTD) which marks a decline from the highs of the last few years, but still a higher than normal level for our local area. A lower number of foreclosures in 2013 will help prices to stabilize in our local market, and with home sales and prices increasing, there are likely to be even fewer foreclosures per year as we move forward. Our local market is fortunate to have only seen small declines in home values as compared to many other housing markets across the country. Our diverse local economy has certainly helped to keep our local housing market relatively stable. Over the next few years, we are likely to see continued increase in the pace of home sales in our local market, as well as slow and steady increase in home values. | |
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30 Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Steady Around 4.5% |
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![]() At least for now, 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates seem content to hover around 4.5%. After having stayed below 4% for a year and a half (Nov 23, 2011 - June 20, 2013) mortgage interest rates jumped up rather quickly this past June. Since that time, however, rates have stayed between 4.3% and 4.6% without too much variation from week to week. | |
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Are you selling a house listed for more than $400K? |
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![]() How then, does a seller of a house over $400,000 make their house stand out? How do you best position yourself to be one of the four houses to sell this month?
Bear in mind, of course, that some factors are outside of your control....
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What did home buyers buy in August 2013? |
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![]() These are the 100 properties that went under contract in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in August 2013. | |
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Inventory levels down but headed up |
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![]() Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale) are down 3% as compared to this time last year. That said, inventory levels generally declined between May and September of last year --- whereas this year they have been increasing between May and September. Could this be an indicator that homeowners are excited to see our marketing starting to recover (22% increase in homes sales and 2% increase in sales prices) and are more optimistic about selling their homes now? | |
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Real Estate Roller Coaster |
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![]() The graph above shows the annualized rate of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. After an enormous boom (that actually started before 2004) and then a big bust, and then an attempted recovery via a federal home buyer tax credit, and then further post tax credit decline, we are finally seeing a sustained recovery in our local housing market. Over the past two years the annual pace of home sales has climbed from 706/year up to 989/year. | |
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Home Sales Soar (+22%) and Prices Inch Upward (+2%) Though Mostly in Lower Price Ranges |
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![]() I have just released my September 2013 monthly market report covering the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. If you remember nothing else, remember this....
![]() As can be seen above, April through August homes sales this year have been head and shoulders above last year --- contributing to an overall 22% increase in the pace of home sales. ![]() Buyer activity is much stronger this year (772 contracts in the past 7 months) as compared to last year (648 contracts in the same 7 months). ![]() The recovery in our local housing market is not happening equally across all price ranges. The lowest two price ranges ($0 - $200K, $200K - $300K) are seeing the most sustained recovery. ![]() In yet another sign of recovery, the average list to sales price ratio is improving -- sellers (on average) are negotiating less off of their final list price. There is a LOT more the full report, so click here to download the full September 2013 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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Which news do you prefer? |
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Home prices less negotiable |
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![]() A few snippets buyers should be aware of....
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Million Dollar Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Not so often, it would seem, as shown above. There have only been six such sales in the past 12.5 years. View details of the six $1M+ sales. But even though it's been a few years since a buyer has paid more than $1M for a house in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County doesn't mean sellers aren't hopeful. View currently listed $1M+ homes for sale. Trying to keep your budget under $1M? Here are a few great options.... | |
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[VIDEO] Overview of August 2013 Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Report |
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![]() The video above (or click here) explores many of the trends we are seeing in our local housing market. Click here to watch the video OR click here to download the full August 2013 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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