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Since the housing market is improving, will my home value finally start to increase? |
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![]() As stated yesterday, even though sales are up, prices are not yet increasing. So what can we expect of home prices over the next five years? I believe we will start to see an increase in prices this year (perhaps 1%) and then we may see a more ambitious (2% - 3%) increase for the next few years after that. Bear in mind that depending on the timeframe you examine (see the bottom of this post) the median home value increases around 5% per year. The matrix above shows that a $250K home would (potentially) increase to a value of $289K over the next five years if we see an average of 3% appreciation per year over the next five years. Click here to download the table above as an Excel file to plug in your own variables. National median home values increased 5.94% per year between 1960 and 2000. National median home values increased 6.72% per year between 1970 and 2000. National median home values increased 4.76% per year between 1980 and 2000. | |
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Sales Up, Inventory Down, Prices Stable in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() As several of you pointed out, last week's sales and inventory graph was missing the trendline for price. So, here (above) is the updated graph. As you can see, over the past two years we have seen prices stabilize as sales increased and inventory decreased. All good signs for further stability and growth in our local housing market! | |
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Long term trends in sales and inventory levels |
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Another look at sales and inventory trends over the past four years.... ![]() We're in a good place now --- fewer and fewer homes for sale combined with more and more home buyers. These two factors alone are playing a significant role in providing stability in our local housing market. | |
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How strong were the first four months of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County this year? |
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![]() As you can see, the first four months of 2013 were quite strong when it comes to the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
Hopefully our local real estate market will continue to track on this trajectory as the year continues! | |
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How much has our local housing market slowed down (and then sped up) over the past six (and then two) years? |
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![]() As shown above, the highest price segment of our local market has slowed down the most (-66%) over the past six years, especially as compared to the lowest price segment which only declined by 4% over the past six years. Over the past two years, home sales in all price segments except the highest have sped back up, though the $200K - $300K price segment has improved the most (+40%). | |
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Home sales soar in April 2013 to highest level since June 2010 |
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I just published my monthly market report on the local housing market and there is plenty of good news in many segments of the market. Click the cover of the report below to download the entire report as a PDF or read on below for some highlights. ![]() Cover Home: 3291 Barrington Drive, Harrisonburg, VA After a relatively mild month of home sales in March, there were an astonishing 100 home sales in April 2013 (see below) -- bringing us to the highest level since June 2010 when buyers had their last chance to cash in on the federal home buyer tax credit. ![]() Beyond the single month of market exuberance shown above, it is also important to examine long term trends. Below you will note that for the past two years we have seen stable prices and an ever increasing rate of annualized home sales. ![]() The future looks positive as well, with another strong month of contracts in April (116) piling on top of March's 114 contracts. ![]() It should be noted that the market improvements described above vary based on price range, property type and location. As shown below, the lower price ranges have seen a greater improvement in sales than the higher price ranges. ![]() There is plenty more inside the full report, including....
Click here to download the full May 2013 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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In boom times, people buy homes to make money, in less exciting times, people buy homes because they need a place to live |
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![]() I'm listening now --- there are some great perspectives being shared on NPR. Click here for the story page, where I believe there will be an audio file later in the day, or tomorrow. | |
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April Home Sales Looking Strong |
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![]() The first few months of the year showed exciting signs for our local housing market:
But then there was March, which left some wondering what was going on:
Don't worry too much, yet, because April month-to-date sales are looking good:
Stay tuned, but our local housing market seems to be continuing to perform well during 2013! | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com updated with 2013-Q1 sales data |
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![]() Wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
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36% fewer homes for sale under $200K, 18% more sales! |
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![]() There are fewer and fewer homes for sale under $200K (shown above) but there are more and more buyers (see below). ![]() These crossing trends (fewer sellers, more buyers) helps to balance the under-$200K segment of our local market, and since many of those sellers will move up to $200K-$300K sales, it can slowly, positively impact the remainder of our market as well. | |
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Harrisonburg Home Sales Up 19% YTD, Median Prices Up 6% |
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I just published my monthly housing market report for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (download here) and good news abounds in many/most segments of our local housing market. ![]() (Beautiful Cover Property: 1920 Marigold Circle, Harrisonburg, VA) ![]() As shown above, there are many positive trends in the local housing market....
![]() Even if March was a bit slower with home sales (+1.5%) the pace of contracts skyrocketed to 114 contracts during March 2013. This marks an astonishing 31% increase over last March, and is the highest pace of monthly contracts since April 2010 which was nearly the last opportunity for a buyer to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit. ![]() As shown above, despite this being the spring selling season, inventory levels have dropped again --- with only 599 homes currently listed for sale. This marks a 15% decline in inventory level over the past 12 months. Here are a few other tidbits to entice you to download the full report....
Also, here are a few other articles of note from the past month....
As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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The Spring housing market has arrived, so inventory levels are probably popping up as fast as the daffodils, right? |
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![]() Inventory levels are remaining low, even though we are definitely into the start of the Spring housing market. This is great news for sellers, as you still have less competition (from other sellers) that you have seen in several years. For buyers, however, the situation is not idea. There are definitely segments of the market (based on price, property type, location) that are significantly undersupplied, leaving buyers feeling like they don't have many (if any) options. If you are considering selling your home some time this Spring or Summer, let's set up a time to talk soon --- it may be advantageous to list your house sooner rather than later. | |
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Major shift seen in local real estate market over past two years |
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![]() Comparing today to where we were two years ago in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
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Are Home Sales At Normal Levels In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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![]() I believe there are still a lower than normal number of people buying in our housing market. Take a look at the graph above which tracks population growth over the past 12 years as compared to the number of single family home buyers in any given year. If we assume that a normal percentage of all residents bought in 2000, we are still seeing a smaller than normal percentage of residents buying as of last year. Some might even argue that we should mark the start of the normal trend line somewhere between the number of 2000 buyers and 2001 buyers. If so, then the current market has even further to grow before approaching a historically normal number of buyers per year, as shown below.... ![]() | |
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I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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![]() As shown in the graph above, the median sales price for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has been stable (between $173K and $177K) for 23 months now. Each of these data points shows the median sales price for a 12 month period, so they are solid, long-term trends. Also shown above, our local market has seen a relatively steady increase in the pace of home sales for 20 months now. Each of these data points shows the total number of home sales during the most recent 12 month period, so again, these are solid long-term indicators. Bottom line? While individual homes, neighborhoods or price ranges might still see some price adjustments, I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Read more in my most recent monthly housing market report. | |
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Local Home Sales Increase 43% in February 2013 |
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My most recent Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has just been published (download it as a PDF here), and there is plenty of good news to be excited about.... ![]() As shown above, home sales increased dramatically in February 2013 to 66 sales for the month. This marks a 43% increase over February 2012, and is the highest month of February home sales in several years. ![]() As shown above, there are plenty of positive indicators in this month's market report....
This surge in home sales is not over yet --- with a 16% increase in February contracts (shown above) we are likely to continue to see increase in home sales in the coming months. ALSO -- buyers are in the market NOW -- if you want to sell your house this spring or summer, we need to start talking soon. There is lots more inside -- click here to download this 28 page market report as a PDF to learn everything you need to know about the overall Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Even if you read every word of my market report, you may still have some questions about how your current home (or a home you'd like to purchase) fits into the overall market. Call (540-578-0102) or email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) if you'd like to chat about your real estate situation, needs, goals, hopes or dreams. One last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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93 Sellers Ratified Contracts in February 2013 |
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![]() An impressive 93 properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County went under contract during February 2013. That marks a 16% improvement over February 2012 when 80 properties went under contract. As shown above, many (72%) of these properties were priced under $200K, and most (89%) were priced under $300K. | |
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LOTS of ratified contracts in February 2013 |
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![]() There will probably be a few more contracts ratified before the end of the day today, but wow --- February 2013 was a crazy month for ratified contracts. Well more than last February --- and nearly comparable to some of the summer months this past year. Apparently we're not waiting on the Spring market this year --- things are off to a fast start! | |
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All months (and market segments) were not created equal |
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![]() If you'll be selling a $300K+ home this year, you should know that all months are not created equal. Last year there was a significant spike in $300K+ buyers during July and August (shown above) -- and this was not a trend seen as significantly in the overall market (shown below). ![]() And remember --- if you're hoping to be one of those $300K+ July/August home sales, we should start talking now about:
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You will LOVE this statistic -- home sales up 77% thus far in February |
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![]() Admittedly, I'm a day behind. So, Happy Valentine's Day yesterday, and I hope you LOVE the fact that our local housing market is off to a strong start in 2013. Above you will see that home sales are up 77% in the first half of February, as compared to the same time period last year. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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