Analysis
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Putting rising interest rates in context |
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 Several of you asked me to put yesterday's news (average rates increased by 0.5% in a week) in perspective. As you can see above, we are still working with ridiculously low mortgage interest rates (4.46%) from a historical perspective. | |
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Who Represents The Buyer? |
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 In the past year there have been 941 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. In those 941 sales, the same Realtor represented the buyer and seller 156 times. Thus, 16.6% of the time, the buyer and seller are represented by the same Realtor. | |
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2012 was not the year to (try to) sell an expensive home |
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 Last year was the worst year in the last 10 years to try to sell a home for more than $600K in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This year is shaping up quite nicely. It may not be a blockbuster (10+ or 12+) year, but it won't be nearly as bad as last year. Looking for that perfect $600K+ home? Don't miss this one: photos | web site | |
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Inventory of single family homes shows greater seasonal fluctuations than townhouses, condos |
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 There are more homes for sale in the summer than the winter, right? Well, yes, that is true --- but those shifts in inventory are seen much more so in single family homes than in townhouses and condos, at least in Harrisonburg and Rockingahm County. As shown above, there are distinct summer highers and winter lows in the single family home inventory levels, whereas townhouses and condos do not show those same seasonal fluctuations. | |
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Local home prices have still not increased |
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 The pace of home sales are up --- 26% YTD. Contracts are up --- 18% year over year. Inventory is down --- 15% over the past year. But home values are still not yet increasing. You can likely sell your home for about the same price now as you could have a year ago. So, when will we see prices start to edge up? Late 2013? 2014? | |
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Foreclosures slowing in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Based on Jan 1 - May 31 data (78 recorded Trustee Sales) the foreclosure rate seems to be slowing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This is good news for the local housing market, as foreclosures (and bank owned properties) can have a negative impact on home values. | |
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June 2013 Local Housing Market Report: Sales Increasing, Prices Stable. |
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I have just released my June 2013 monthly market report covering the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. Click here to download the full report as a PDF, read on for some highlights, or click here to view more details on the cover home, 2694 Eversole Road.  Some of the most exciting news in this report is that buyer activity continues to be strong, both in closed sales, and properties going under contract. Below we can see that both April and May were very strong months of closed transactions which have lead to a 26% year-to-date improvement in the pace of sales in this area.  In addition to strong sales (closings) over the past two months, we have also seen record numbers of buyers signing contracts in recent months. Last month, 143 buyers signed contracts to buy residential properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County --- well more than than any other recent month.  So, as home sales have increased, and contracts have increased, what have we seen as far as home values? For almost two years now, median home prices have hovered right around $175K in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  In further good news, foreclosure have been declining thus far in 2013 as compared to the overall number of home sales.  Read more, lots more, in my full monthly market report. Click here to download the full June 2013 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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143 Contracts Signed in May 2013 (most contracts per month in at least six years!) |
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 I have been tracking contract activity over over six years and I have never seen contract levels this high in a single month. Over the past six years, we never saw any more than 121 contracts signed in a single month. Last month, there were an astonishing 143 contracts signed! | |
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Local unemployment levels hit 4.5 year low in April 2013, but.... |
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 If the past five years are any indicator, the local unemployment rate will start increasing again in May. As shown above, April has consistently been a low point for unemployment rates in our area, followed by increases in May, June, July. Can anyone offer any insight or guesses as to why this happens so consistently in this area? | |
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Lots (lots!) of contracts signed thus far in May 2013 |
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 If the first 28 days of May are any indication, our local housing market will be setting new records this month. There have already been 125 contracts signed on residential real estate listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County this month. That is nearly double the pace of contract signing seen in previous months of May. | |
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Recovery of the high end housing market? |
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 The bottom dropped out of the high end housing market ($600K+) last year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. After 7+ sales every year between 2004 and 2011 (and as high as 22 in 2006) there were only 2 sales over $600K last year! This year, however, the high end housing market seems to be bouncing back. There have already been three sales over $600K, and there are two more properties under contract. That said, there are currently 21 homes for sale over $600K, so there are quite a few sellers in this market, despite the increasing number of buyers. | |
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Since the housing market is improving, will my home value finally start to increase? |
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 As stated yesterday, even though sales are up, prices are not yet increasing. So what can we expect of home prices over the next five years? I believe we will start to see an increase in prices this year (perhaps 1%) and then we may see a more ambitious (2% - 3%) increase for the next few years after that. Bear in mind that depending on the timeframe you examine (see the bottom of this post) the median home value increases around 5% per year. The matrix above shows that a $250K home would (potentially) increase to a value of $289K over the next five years if we see an average of 3% appreciation per year over the next five years. Click here to download the table above as an Excel file to plug in your own variables. National median home values increased 5.94% per year between 1960 and 2000. National median home values increased 6.72% per year between 1970 and 2000. National median home values increased 4.76% per year between 1980 and 2000. | |
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Sales Up, Inventory Down, Prices Stable in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 As several of you pointed out, last week's sales and inventory graph was missing the trendline for price. So, here (above) is the updated graph. As you can see, over the past two years we have seen prices stabilize as sales increased and inventory decreased. All good signs for further stability and growth in our local housing market! | |
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Long term trends in sales and inventory levels |
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Another look at sales and inventory trends over the past four years....  We're in a good place now --- fewer and fewer homes for sale combined with more and more home buyers. These two factors alone are playing a significant role in providing stability in our local housing market. | |
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How strong were the first four months of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County this year? |
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 As you can see, the first four months of 2013 were quite strong when it comes to the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
Hopefully our local real estate market will continue to track on this trajectory as the year continues! | |
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How much has our local housing market slowed down (and then sped up) over the past six (and then two) years? |
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 As shown above, the highest price segment of our local market has slowed down the most (-66%) over the past six years, especially as compared to the lowest price segment which only declined by 4% over the past six years. Over the past two years, home sales in all price segments except the highest have sped back up, though the $200K - $300K price segment has improved the most (+40%). | |
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Home sales soar in April 2013 to highest level since June 2010 |
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I just published my monthly market report on the local housing market and there is plenty of good news in many segments of the market. Click the cover of the report below to download the entire report as a PDF or read on below for some highlights.  Cover Home: 3291 Barrington Drive, Harrisonburg, VA After a relatively mild month of home sales in March, there were an astonishing 100 home sales in April 2013 (see below) -- bringing us to the highest level since June 2010 when buyers had their last chance to cash in on the federal home buyer tax credit.  Beyond the single month of market exuberance shown above, it is also important to examine long term trends. Below you will note that for the past two years we have seen stable prices and an ever increasing rate of annualized home sales.  The future looks positive as well, with another strong month of contracts in April (116) piling on top of March's 114 contracts.  It should be noted that the market improvements described above vary based on price range, property type and location. As shown below, the lower price ranges have seen a greater improvement in sales than the higher price ranges.  There is plenty more inside the full report, including....
Click here to download the full May 2013 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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In boom times, people buy homes to make money, in less exciting times, people buy homes because they need a place to live |
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 I'm listening now --- there are some great perspectives being shared on NPR. Click here for the story page, where I believe there will be an audio file later in the day, or tomorrow. | |
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April Home Sales Looking Strong |
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 The first few months of the year showed exciting signs for our local housing market:
But then there was March, which left some wondering what was going on:
Don't worry too much, yet, because April month-to-date sales are looking good:
Stay tuned, but our local housing market seems to be continuing to perform well during 2013! | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com updated with 2013-Q1 sales data |
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 Wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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