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Overview of Virginia Housing Market in 2012 |
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![]() The Virginia Associations of Realtor has published their annual review of the Virginia housing market, entitled "Pieces of Home" as shown above. Click here to read this comprehensive report. | |
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Home Sales, Contracts Strong in January 2013 |
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![]() The February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has been published, with these bits of encouraging news about our local housing market. January home sales (47) were up 21% over last January (39)..... ![]() January contracts (76) were up 29% over last January (59).... ![]() When it comes to home values, last January was a bit of an anomaly, with much higher than normal median and average values. As such, it's best to look at 12-month indicators, where we will see small downward adjustments in home values....
Amidst higher sales, higher contracts, and slightly lower prices, inventory levels continue to decline.... It is also important to note that interest rates have started to increase (a bit) over the past several months.... As always, learn lots more by downloading the full February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Eureka! Median Days on Market more insightful than Average |
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![]() The health of our local housing market has improved over the past year, but the one metric that has continued to appear quite depressing has been "Average Days on Market" -- shown above in blue. This is the average number of days between the listing date and closing date of properties that have actually sold. I have always used AVERAGE days on market, as that seems to be used quite widely in the industry as the best metric, but based on the encouragement of several of my blog readers, I have (finally) looked at how the MEDIAN days on market trend differs. As shown above, the Median Days on Market trend (red) seems to be a much better indication of how long it takes for a house to sell in our market. As the mathematicians among you know, an AVERAGE can be greatly skewed by outliers, for example some houses that have finally (!!) been selling over the past year or two that had extremely high days on market. A MEDIAN value is a better indicator of "central tendencies" when there are a significant number of outliers. Thus, in 2012, half of the homes that sold did so in less than 144 days, and half did so in more than 144 days. I believe that is much more helpful data than an average of 218 days on the market! | |
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How negotiable are bank owned (REO) list prices? |
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![]() As you'll note, above, banks aren't that much more flexible on price than the average seller on the market. That said, their list prices are oftentimes more compelling than typical listings, which makes the "normal" amount of negotiating room less of a concern for most buyers. View upcoming Trustee Sales View current bank owned listings | |
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Local Housing Markets Regain Strength and Stability in 2012 |
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My recap of our local housing market, and some predictions, as published this week in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal.... It was certainly an exciting time for homeowners as home sales doubled (829 to 1,669) during a five year period (2000-2005) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But after that amazing increase in home sales (and prices!) the market here and just about everywhere cooled off significantly. Over the subsequent five years (2005-2010) home sales fell more than 50% (1,669 to 758). After such turbulent times, even modest growth in home sales activity is a welcome sight to homeowners. Thus, the past two years of increased home sales (+4%, +9%) have been encouraging to see, and have been accompanied by stabilization in prices (+1%) over the past year. The question, then, for many people is what we should expect over the next few years in our local housing market. Home sales will continue to increase. Despite an increase in home sales over the past two years, there were roughly the same number of home sales in 2012 (864 sales) as took place 12 years earlier in 2000 (829 sales). During the same timeframe, however, the population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased from 108,322 to 127,354 according to the Weldon Cooper Center. This 17.5% increase in population suggests that current home sales (if the same percentage of the population purchased a home each year) should be closer to 1,015 home sales per year. As such, it seems safe to say that the current level of buyer activity is still lower than historically normal levels and we should see continued growth in home sales over the next several years. Median prices to slowly start to increase. Many other areas of Virginia and our nation experienced significant declines in home values over the last 5 to 7 years. Thankfully, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market has not seen significant declines in this area. After topping out at a median price of $195,500 in 2008, our local market's median price has only declined by 10% over the past four years to $175,000. Of note, this still marks an overall 51% increase in home values over the past 12 years. As we head into 2013 and 2014 we should expect to see further moderate increases in home values in our area, likely an increase of between 1% and 4% per year. Inventory levels to stay relatively low. There are fewer homes on the market now (572) than we have seen in several years. Overall inventory levels have dropped 15% over the past year, and 27% over the past two years. These lower inventory levels mean that many would-be sellers have decided to stay in their homes, perhaps after not being able to sell in a reasonable timeframe. These lower inventory levels do mean buyers will have fewer choices, but they also are helping to stabilize the local market. After five years of unsustainable increases in home sales and home values, and then five years of dizzying declines in both of those areas, we are finally seeing stability and moderate, sustainable growth in our local housing market. Given the diverse, and stable local economy, we should expect to see further improvement in our market over the next year years. | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com updated with 2012 sales data |
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![]() Wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
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If you were waiting for the bottom of the market, this is it. |
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![]() After five years of declining sales (2005-2010) the pace of single family home sales finally increased in 2011. After five years of declining sales prices (2006-2011) the median price of single family homes (sold) finally increased in 2012. At this point, I'm not expecting either of those to start declining again over the next few years (even if they don't increase exponentially either) -- so, if you were waiting for the bottom of the market, this is (or was) it. Buyers -- act early in 2013 before prices continue to increase through 2013. Sellers -- be realistic about pricing, to best present your house to potential buyers. I'm expecting to see further recovery in both pace of sales and price of sales during 2013. | |
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Impact of local foreclosures is low compared to many other parts of the country, but still higher than historical norms |
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![]() The Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area sees fewer foreclosures than many other areas of the country, but we too saw an increase in completed foreclosures over the past several years. After staying between 50 and 120 Trustee Sales per year (between 2000 and 2008) we have seen elevated numbers of foreclosures over the past several years as shown in the graph above. After declining between 2010 and 2011 (-17%), the number of foreclosures increased again in 2012 -- though not to as high of a level as seen in 2010. Expect to see more bank owned listings coming on the market in 2013. And hopefully we will see the number of foreclosures decline again in 2013. | |
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Townhouse sales pick up pace, prices still declining |
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![]() After a massive decline in townhouse sales (644 sales in 2005 down to only 168 sales in 2011) the pace of townhouse sales finally increased (+32%) in 2012. Despite more townhouse buyers being in the market in 2012, prices declined further (-6%) down to a median sales price of $134,995. A few notes as you ponder this data:
If you are looking to buy a townhouse, there is a great opportunity right now with room to negotiate on many prices. If you are looking to sell a townhouse, be realistic about pricing, market your property thoroughly, and be willing to consider leasing your property instead if it comes down to that. | |
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Housing supply suddenly nearing healthy levels! |
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![]() "Housing Supply" is usually a comparison of how many buyers are in the market to buy as it relates to the number of sellers in the market to sell. Consider these two, very different examples....
In the first example, there are 6 "months of supply" on the market. If buyer demand stays steady (10 buyers per month) it would take six months to sell all of the existing inventory of homes for sale. In the second example, there are 60 "months of supply" on the market. If buyer demand stays steady (10 buyers per month) it would take 60 months (five years!) to sell all of the existing inventory of homes for sale. When there are six months of housing supply available, many analysts consider a housing market to be in a balance between buyers and sellers. If there are lower supply levels (for example, only three months of housing supply available) it would be a seller's market, with sellers having the upper hand as buyers fight over a small number of available houses. If there are higher supply levels (for example, 15 months of housing supply available) it would be a buyer's market, with sellers pining over the comparatively small number of buyers in the market. With that context, take a look at the chart above, which examines the number of months of housing supply available in several price ranges of our local housing market. You'll notice that many price ranges are approaching that balanced level of six months of available supply:
While many price ranges are now much closer to a healthy balance between sellers and buyers, keep in mind that:
If you're interested in even more specific data --- supply levels based on location, a custom price range, etc. --- just drop me a line at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday. I am happy, as always, to provide custom analysis to help you make the best real estate decisions. | |
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Year End Report: Home Sales Up 9%, Prices Up 1% |
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![]() Having closed out 2012, we can say with certainty that the the local housing market has turned the corner, and brighter times are ahead.
Download the January 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report to pore over the details, or read on for highlights.... ![]() As shown above, while home sales declined (-29%) in December the year-end figures show an overall 8.8% increase in home sales during 2012. Furthermore, median sales prices increased (+0.57%) between 2011 and 2012. ![]() As shown above, after a brief slow down during November, buyer activity increased again in December --- marking a 26% increase over December 2011. ![]() Inventory levels have dropped again, down 15% over the past year to 572 homes on the market. This is a 27% decline over the past two years, and is definitely helping our local housing market return to a balance between buyers and sellers. ![]() If you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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When do the buyers start buying? March? April? |
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![]() At least last year, they start jumping into the market in good number starting in February! If you are planning to sell this Spring, let's start talking now about:
Let me know if I can be of help to you as you consider whether to sell your home this Spring. | |
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What Do Declining Inventory Levels Mean? |
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![]() Two and a half years ago (June 2010) there were an astonishing 1,015 homes on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County – including single family homes, townhomes, duplexes and condominiums. As of yesterday, there were just 551 homes for sale in our local marketplace. This startling 46% decline in local housing inventory has far reaching implications for many of us in our local community. Homeowners are losing less sleep. The median price of homes in our area has declined 10% in the past six years – but what is telling is the trend in median prices over the past 18 months as inventory levels have declined. For the past year and half, median prices have hovered between $173,000 and $177,000 with very little variation. After 18 months without further declines in median sales prices, homeowners in our local area can relax a bit, knowing that their home's value is not continuing to decline. Would-Be Sellers are still waiting. As is evident from the continued declines in the number of homes for sale, we are not seeing a flood of would-be home sellers putting their houses on the market after having seen that home values have stabilized. If anything, it seems fair to say that the high inventory levels of 2006 were would-be sellers hoping to catch the tail end of the housing boom. Today, those would-be sellers that were not successful seem to be waiting to put their homes on the market until there are signs of increasing sales prices. That is certainly a very reasonable approach unless there is some specific impetus for selling – moving out of the area, a growing family, etc. Would-Be Buyers are simultaneously frustrated and elated. Many of today's home buyers are not finding very many homes that match what they are looking for in a new home. They often feel they are scraping the bottom of the barrel with the current low inventory levels. Yet at the same time, buyers realize that since we seem to be at the bottom of the market that their opportunities to buy a home at a greater price have been never been better. The added bonus for would-be buyers is the historically low interest rates – as low as 3.25% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Home builders are dusting off their hammers. As home values declined over the past six years it became increasingly difficult for home builders to compete on price with homeowners who were selling their homes. As inventory levels have declined, however, buyers have had fewer options and prices have stopped declining. As a result, some home builders are starting to see renewed interest in their homes or subdivisions. While we are likely to see inventory levels start to increase again in the Spring, it is quite likely that we will continue to see historically low inventory levels over the next 12-24 months as our local housing market continues to recover. As always, not only do you need to understand the general market trends in our area, you also must dig deep to explore the specifics of the market that pertain to your particular home. For a thorough understanding of the overall local housing market, please refer to HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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It has been years (at least 5) since we have seen inventory levels this low! |
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![]() Today (this morning) is likely the low-water mark for the number of houses on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But even as some houses start to come back on the market over the coming weeks and months it seems that inventory levels may stay significantly below where they have been for the past several years. These low inventory levels should help our local housing market continue to recover, especially given the low mortgage interest rates currently available to buyers. Just a reminder, those are currently hovering around 3.35%. | |
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2012 Year In Review |
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![]() Based on preliminary data as of the morning of Dec 31, 2012. | |
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The State Of The Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market |
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![]() As can be seen above, the pace of sales has recovered more quickly at Massanutten Resor than in our overall market.
While prices have fallen significantly over the past six years at Massanutten Resort (-26%) as compared to the overall market (-9%) the improvement over the past two years has been more rapid at Massanutten Resort (+4%) than in the overall market (-3%). The significant declines in price (-28%) and sales pace (-48%) at Massanutten Resort between 2006 and 2010 were likely due to the significant decline in second home purchases as housing markets softened across the nation. I believe we will see continued recovery in the Massanutten Resort market over the next few years, though it might be many years before we return to median prices as high as we experienced in 2006. | |
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Foreclosures up a bit in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Foreclosures in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (shown in red above) are actually up a bit this year after having declined in 2011. In the first 11 months of this year there have been 225 completed Trustee Sales, whereas there were only 223 in all of 2011. Thus, look for more bank owned properties to be coming on the market in the coming months and likely well into 2013. While foreclosures have increased over the past few years (compared to historical norms) we still have far fewer foreclosures than many other parts of the country. Learn more about our local real estate market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. View upcoming Trustee Sales at HarrisonburgForeclosures.com. | |
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Local Online Real Estate Resources |
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See below for a quick re-cap of several local online real estate resources that may be helpful to you as a home buyer, home seller, home owner, investor or developer in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area. Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com New Home Communities HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com Do you have an idea for another online resource? E-mail me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and let me know what would be helpful to you! | |
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New Construction Is (Slowly) Making A Recovery |
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![]() The graph above shows the number of new single family homes sold per year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, per the HRAR MLS. We saw a 78% decline in these new construction single family home sales between 2005 (186 sales) and 2010 (41 sales). During the past two years, however, we have gradually seen the pace of such sales start to increase again --- with 41 sales in 2010, then 45 sales in 2011, and 48 sales in the first 11 months of this year. The median price per square foot of these homes has also stabilized around $129/$130 per square foot --- after rising as high as $150 per square foot. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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Harrisonburg Townhouses
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