Analysis
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36% fewer homes for sale under $200K, 18% more sales! |
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 There are fewer and fewer homes for sale under $200K (shown above) but there are more and more buyers (see below).  These crossing trends (fewer sellers, more buyers) helps to balance the under-$200K segment of our local market, and since many of those sellers will move up to $200K-$300K sales, it can slowly, positively impact the remainder of our market as well. | |
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Harrisonburg Home Sales Up 19% YTD, Median Prices Up 6% |
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I just published my monthly housing market report for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (download here) and good news abounds in many/most segments of our local housing market.  (Beautiful Cover Property: 1920 Marigold Circle, Harrisonburg, VA)  As shown above, there are many positive trends in the local housing market....
 Even if March was a bit slower with home sales (+1.5%) the pace of contracts skyrocketed to 114 contracts during March 2013. This marks an astonishing 31% increase over last March, and is the highest pace of monthly contracts since April 2010 which was nearly the last opportunity for a buyer to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.  As shown above, despite this being the spring selling season, inventory levels have dropped again --- with only 599 homes currently listed for sale. This marks a 15% decline in inventory level over the past 12 months. Here are a few other tidbits to entice you to download the full report....
Also, here are a few other articles of note from the past month....
As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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The Spring housing market has arrived, so inventory levels are probably popping up as fast as the daffodils, right? |
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 Inventory levels are remaining low, even though we are definitely into the start of the Spring housing market. This is great news for sellers, as you still have less competition (from other sellers) that you have seen in several years. For buyers, however, the situation is not idea. There are definitely segments of the market (based on price, property type, location) that are significantly undersupplied, leaving buyers feeling like they don't have many (if any) options. If you are considering selling your home some time this Spring or Summer, let's set up a time to talk soon --- it may be advantageous to list your house sooner rather than later. | |
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Major shift seen in local real estate market over past two years |
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 Comparing today to where we were two years ago in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
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Are Home Sales At Normal Levels In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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 I believe there are still a lower than normal number of people buying in our housing market. Take a look at the graph above which tracks population growth over the past 12 years as compared to the number of single family home buyers in any given year. If we assume that a normal percentage of all residents bought in 2000, we are still seeing a smaller than normal percentage of residents buying as of last year. Some might even argue that we should mark the start of the normal trend line somewhere between the number of 2000 buyers and 2001 buyers. If so, then the current market has even further to grow before approaching a historically normal number of buyers per year, as shown below....  | |
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I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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 As shown in the graph above, the median sales price for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has been stable (between $173K and $177K) for 23 months now. Each of these data points shows the median sales price for a 12 month period, so they are solid, long-term trends. Also shown above, our local market has seen a relatively steady increase in the pace of home sales for 20 months now. Each of these data points shows the total number of home sales during the most recent 12 month period, so again, these are solid long-term indicators. Bottom line? While individual homes, neighborhoods or price ranges might still see some price adjustments, I do not believe we will see any further (overall) price declines in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Read more in my most recent monthly housing market report. | |
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Local Home Sales Increase 43% in February 2013 |
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My most recent Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has just been published (download it as a PDF here), and there is plenty of good news to be excited about....  As shown above, home sales increased dramatically in February 2013 to 66 sales for the month. This marks a 43% increase over February 2012, and is the highest month of February home sales in several years.  As shown above, there are plenty of positive indicators in this month's market report....
This surge in home sales is not over yet --- with a 16% increase in February contracts (shown above) we are likely to continue to see increase in home sales in the coming months. ALSO -- buyers are in the market NOW -- if you want to sell your house this spring or summer, we need to start talking soon.
There is lots more inside -- click here to download this 28 page market report as a PDF to learn everything you need to know about the overall Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Even if you read every word of my market report, you may still have some questions about how your current home (or a home you'd like to purchase) fits into the overall market. Call (540-578-0102) or email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) if you'd like to chat about your real estate situation, needs, goals, hopes or dreams. One last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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93 Sellers Ratified Contracts in February 2013 |
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 An impressive 93 properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County went under contract during February 2013. That marks a 16% improvement over February 2012 when 80 properties went under contract. As shown above, many (72%) of these properties were priced under $200K, and most (89%) were priced under $300K. | |
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LOTS of ratified contracts in February 2013 |
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 There will probably be a few more contracts ratified before the end of the day today, but wow --- February 2013 was a crazy month for ratified contracts. Well more than last February --- and nearly comparable to some of the summer months this past year. Apparently we're not waiting on the Spring market this year --- things are off to a fast start! | |
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All months (and market segments) were not created equal |
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 If you'll be selling a $300K+ home this year, you should know that all months are not created equal. Last year there was a significant spike in $300K+ buyers during July and August (shown above) -- and this was not a trend seen as significantly in the overall market (shown below).  And remember --- if you're hoping to be one of those $300K+ July/August home sales, we should start talking now about:
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You will LOVE this statistic -- home sales up 77% thus far in February |
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 Admittedly, I'm a day behind. So, Happy Valentine's Day yesterday, and I hope you LOVE the fact that our local housing market is off to a strong start in 2013. Above you will see that home sales are up 77% in the first half of February, as compared to the same time period last year. | |
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Overview of Virginia Housing Market in 2012 |
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 The Virginia Associations of Realtor has published their annual review of the Virginia housing market, entitled "Pieces of Home" as shown above. Click here to read this comprehensive report. | |
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Home Sales, Contracts Strong in January 2013 |
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 The February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has been published, with these bits of encouraging news about our local housing market. January home sales (47) were up 21% over last January (39).....  January contracts (76) were up 29% over last January (59)....  When it comes to home values, last January was a bit of an anomaly, with much higher than normal median and average values. As such, it's best to look at 12-month indicators, where we will see small downward adjustments in home values....
Amidst higher sales, higher contracts, and slightly lower prices, inventory levels continue to decline....
It is also important to note that interest rates have started to increase (a bit) over the past several months....
As always, learn lots more by downloading the full February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Eureka! Median Days on Market more insightful than Average |
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 The health of our local housing market has improved over the past year, but the one metric that has continued to appear quite depressing has been "Average Days on Market" -- shown above in blue. This is the average number of days between the listing date and closing date of properties that have actually sold. I have always used AVERAGE days on market, as that seems to be used quite widely in the industry as the best metric, but based on the encouragement of several of my blog readers, I have (finally) looked at how the MEDIAN days on market trend differs. As shown above, the Median Days on Market trend (red) seems to be a much better indication of how long it takes for a house to sell in our market. As the mathematicians among you know, an AVERAGE can be greatly skewed by outliers, for example some houses that have finally (!!) been selling over the past year or two that had extremely high days on market. A MEDIAN value is a better indicator of "central tendencies" when there are a significant number of outliers. Thus, in 2012, half of the homes that sold did so in less than 144 days, and half did so in more than 144 days. I believe that is much more helpful data than an average of 218 days on the market! | |
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How negotiable are bank owned (REO) list prices? |
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 As you'll note, above, banks aren't that much more flexible on price than the average seller on the market. That said, their list prices are oftentimes more compelling than typical listings, which makes the "normal" amount of negotiating room less of a concern for most buyers. View upcoming Trustee Sales View current bank owned listings | |
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Local Housing Markets Regain Strength and Stability in 2012 |
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My recap of our local housing market, and some predictions, as published this week in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal.... It was certainly an exciting time for homeowners as home sales doubled (829 to 1,669) during a five year period (2000-2005) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But after that amazing increase in home sales (and prices!) the market here and just about everywhere cooled off significantly. Over the subsequent five years (2005-2010) home sales fell more than 50% (1,669 to 758). After such turbulent times, even modest growth in home sales activity is a welcome sight to homeowners. Thus, the past two years of increased home sales (+4%, +9%) have been encouraging to see, and have been accompanied by stabilization in prices (+1%) over the past year. The question, then, for many people is what we should expect over the next few years in our local housing market. Home sales will continue to increase. Despite an increase in home sales over the past two years, there were roughly the same number of home sales in 2012 (864 sales) as took place 12 years earlier in 2000 (829 sales). During the same timeframe, however, the population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased from 108,322 to 127,354 according to the Weldon Cooper Center. This 17.5% increase in population suggests that current home sales (if the same percentage of the population purchased a home each year) should be closer to 1,015 home sales per year. As such, it seems safe to say that the current level of buyer activity is still lower than historically normal levels and we should see continued growth in home sales over the next several years. Median prices to slowly start to increase. Many other areas of Virginia and our nation experienced significant declines in home values over the last 5 to 7 years. Thankfully, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market has not seen significant declines in this area. After topping out at a median price of $195,500 in 2008, our local market's median price has only declined by 10% over the past four years to $175,000. Of note, this still marks an overall 51% increase in home values over the past 12 years. As we head into 2013 and 2014 we should expect to see further moderate increases in home values in our area, likely an increase of between 1% and 4% per year. Inventory levels to stay relatively low. There are fewer homes on the market now (572) than we have seen in several years. Overall inventory levels have dropped 15% over the past year, and 27% over the past two years. These lower inventory levels mean that many would-be sellers have decided to stay in their homes, perhaps after not being able to sell in a reasonable timeframe. These lower inventory levels do mean buyers will have fewer choices, but they also are helping to stabilize the local market. After five years of unsustainable increases in home sales and home values, and then five years of dizzying declines in both of those areas, we are finally seeing stability and moderate, sustainable growth in our local housing market. Given the diverse, and stable local economy, we should expect to see further improvement in our market over the next year years. | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com updated with 2012 sales data |
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 Wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
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If you were waiting for the bottom of the market, this is it. |
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 After five years of declining sales (2005-2010) the pace of single family home sales finally increased in 2011. After five years of declining sales prices (2006-2011) the median price of single family homes (sold) finally increased in 2012. At this point, I'm not expecting either of those to start declining again over the next few years (even if they don't increase exponentially either) -- so, if you were waiting for the bottom of the market, this is (or was) it. Buyers -- act early in 2013 before prices continue to increase through 2013. Sellers -- be realistic about pricing, to best present your house to potential buyers. I'm expecting to see further recovery in both pace of sales and price of sales during 2013. | |
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Impact of local foreclosures is low compared to many other parts of the country, but still higher than historical norms |
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 The Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area sees fewer foreclosures than many other areas of the country, but we too saw an increase in completed foreclosures over the past several years. After staying between 50 and 120 Trustee Sales per year (between 2000 and 2008) we have seen elevated numbers of foreclosures over the past several years as shown in the graph above. After declining between 2010 and 2011 (-17%), the number of foreclosures increased again in 2012 -- though not to as high of a level as seen in 2010. Expect to see more bank owned listings coming on the market in 2013. And hopefully we will see the number of foreclosures decline again in 2013. | |
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Townhouse sales pick up pace, prices still declining |
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 After a massive decline in townhouse sales (644 sales in 2005 down to only 168 sales in 2011) the pace of townhouse sales finally increased (+32%) in 2012. Despite more townhouse buyers being in the market in 2012, prices declined further (-6%) down to a median sales price of $134,995. A few notes as you ponder this data:
If you are looking to buy a townhouse, there is a great opportunity right now with room to negotiate on many prices. If you are looking to sell a townhouse, be realistic about pricing, market your property thoroughly, and be willing to consider leasing your property instead if it comes down to that. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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