Buying
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New Listings in Harrisonburg (and Rockingham County) |
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 Keep your finger on the pulse of new listings in Harrisonburg (and Rockingham County) by exploring the most recent listings at.... NewListingsInHarrisonburg.comOr -- receive a daily email with all new listings from that day.... Sign up for a daily email with all new listingsAs we move into the Spring market, we'll start to see quite a few homes coming on the market. I will be monitoring new listings, and you can as well! | |
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The most quickly recovering price range is.... |
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 This might surprise you, but the price range that has seen the most significant year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales is homes priced between $300K and $400K. Anyone want to volunteer some theories on why we're seeing this recovery in this price range at this time in the market? Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF....  | |
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March 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 12108 Rabbits Foot Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  First, the big picture trends thus far this year show signs of a healthy, growing market....
 Both January and February of this year appear as "middle of the pack" months when put in the context of 2012, 2013 and 2014. The sales trajectory we see in March and April will be a good indicator of how the rest of this year will turn out. Last year, we experienced somewhat slower than expected home sales all the way until May when the monthly sales pace started popping up above previous years. I am hopeful we will see an earlier start to the 2015 market.  Hooray for lots of buyers in February 2015 -- signing contracts, that is. A whopping 98 contracts were signed in February 2015, compared to only 75 last February. This is an excellent indicator that we should see strong (closed) sales activity in March and April of this year.  As shown above, inventory levels continued to decline (slightly) over the past month -- and are now down 1.6% as compared to a year ago at this time. We are likely to see these inventory levels start to rise over the next few months. OK, now for some action items.... SELLERS: All of the snow in your yard should be melted within 24 to 48 hours. If you are going to be listing your home for sales this Spring, consider trying to get the advantage of getting your house on the market early, when you'll have less competition from other sellers. Let's meet (soon!) to discuss timing, pricing, marketing and what else you should consider doing to prepare your home for the market. BUYERS: We will see lots of exciting listings coming on the market in the next 30 - 60 days. Are you ready? Have you talked to a lender to become prequalified? Have we met to discuss your hopes, goals and dreams and your next home? Let's start looking at some houses now so that when your dream house comes on the market you have a good context for whether it is a good deal or a great deal. Above all, if you will be buying or selling soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire March 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, if you're interested in working with me to buy or sell a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you can always reach me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or 540-578-0102. | |
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An extremely detailed analysis of buying vs renting |
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 This calculator on the NY Times website (find it here) is the most detailed such calculator that I have seen in a long time. It takes many (MANY!) factors into account. If you're torn as to whether to buy or rent, feel free to check out the calculator, or set up a time to meet with me and we can discuss it together. | |
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Current Mortgage Interest Rates Are Ridiculously, Historically Low |
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 Average interest rates edged up last week (from 3.59% to 3.69%) but from a historical perspective, they are still ridiculously low....  Thus, the opportunity persists to lock in your housing costs at very, very low levels. Looking for a referral for a great local lender? Email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com for several recommendations. | |
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Buying a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County |
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 If you are considering the purchase of a townhouse in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you'll likely want to know about all of the townhouse communities that might be of interest, as well as knowing recent sales prices in those communities, current availability, etc. Find all of that information, and more, at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com. | |
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What did buyers buy in January 2015? |
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 How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month?
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What are the odds that a contract will result in a closing? |
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 On average, six out of every seven contracts results in a closing. In some ways, that is great -- 87% seems like a pretty proportion of contracts to successfully close. However, it flipping it around, it isn't the most exciting news in the world to realize that one out of every seven contracts fails. Common reasons for a contract to fall apart include:
Whether you are buying or selling, we need to discuss and anticipate these possibilities ahead of time, and make sure we are structuring contract contingencies to best protect your interests. Of note, this analysis is not 100% precise. Technically, some of the 2014 closings are based on 2013 contracts, some of the 2013 closings are based on 2012 contracts, etc. That said, these differences usually balance themselves out from year to year. | |
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We are again starting the year with a six month supply of homes for sale, a sign of a balanced market |
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 For the second year in a row we are starting out in January with a six month supply of homes for sale, which is traditionally seen as a sign of a balanced housing market. A few years ago (2009-2011) we were consistently starting the year with enough homes on the market for every buyer that would buy in that year. That equates to 12 months of housing supply, and those were years of having a significantly oversupplied market -- which caused sales prices to decline and gave buyers the upper hand in negotiations. In 2015, we should expect that buyers and sellers will have relatively equal amounts of negotiating power, depending on the other factors affecting the sale. Important Notes: 1. The 2015 sales (1083) is an estimate of the number of sales we will see this year. Read more here. 2. The number of months of housing supply available varies by price range. See my full market report for further details. | |
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Predictions for the 2015 Real Estate Market in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Here are my official predictions for the 2015 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market....
Who else would like to make a prediction? Click here for a larger version of my prediction graph. | |
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Despite overall market improvement, single family home prices shift slightly downward |
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 Despite increases in the number of single family homes selling per year over the past four years (yellow bars above), the median price of single family home sales (blue line above) has drifted downward by 1% per year over the past two years. | |
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Final 2014 Report Shows 3% More Homes Sold at 2% Higher Prices |
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 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  Here's the big news -- all of the data is in for 2014 and over the past year our market has seen....
 As is to be expected, there are significantly fewer homes on the market now as compared to this past summer -- buyers are choosing from 24% fewer homes today as compared to in July. Year-over-year, however, inventory levels are trending up slightly (+1.7%).  It is certainly easier to find a townhouse/duplex/condo these days than a single family home. Over the past year, inventory levels of single family homes have dropped 5%, while inventory levels of attached dwellings have increased 23%.  Foreclosures are significantly less of a problem in our local market (163 in 2014) as compared to some recent years (a peak of 270 in 2010).  Long-term mortgage interest rates continue to stay quite favorable -- currently below 4%, which has certainly contributed to plenty of buyer enthusiasm. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire January 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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What did buyers write contracts on in December 2014? |
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Quite a few buyers committed to buy properties last month. The graphics below show what those buyers chose to buy. And here are the lucky sellers whose homes are currently under contract.  | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Up 2%, Prices Up 1% |
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 Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3339 Deavers Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  First, the big picture trends of what has been happening this year in our local housing market are quite positive, even if not yet to the magnitude that some homeowners would prefer....
 We will certainly be seeing fewer buyers per month over the next few months, however, as shown above, there will be fewer sellers in the market hoping for those buyers to commit to their properties. Inventory levels are up 3.4% year over year, but are amidst what is a typical seasonal decline during the late Fall to early Winter months.  Why are we a seeing steadily increasing sales pace, and (slowly) increasing sales prices? One main reason is that we are seeing fewer and fewer distressed sales -- foreclosures, short sales, etc. As shown above, home sales have been steadily increasing for several years, and the rate of foreclosures has been steadily decreasing. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire December 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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What styles of homes could I purchase in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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 If you're looking for a Victorian, Log House, Cabin, A-Frame, Dutch Colonial or Tudor --- you won't have many options! The list above shows the breakdown of currently active listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, showing that most (56%) of the homes that are for sale are ranches (28%), townhouses (14%) or contemporary homes (14%). Any surprises on this list? | |
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Mortgage interest rates edge up.... to ridiculously low levels |
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 It's compelling to get a long term fixed interest rate that starts with a 3.....and it might still be possible, but the national average is now 4.01%. Let me know if you're looking for recommendations for lenders.... | |
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Local housing market continues to rebound in October 2014 |
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 Featured Property: 4570 Magnolia Ridge Drive, Harrisonburg, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights....  First and foremost -- wow -- September and October home sales have been STRONG in 2014! Those two months alone have pulled the YTD pace of home sales even with (and beyond) the 2013 pace of home sales. We certainly had a slow start to the year (particularly in Feb, Mar, Apr) but the last two months (Sep, Oct) have really made the difference in the pace of home sales this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Take a look at how the past two months of home sales (107, 107) have far exceeded any recent September and October sales pace.  Yes, folks, you heard me correctly -- 2014 YTD home sales (882) have now surpassed 2013 YTD home sales (866). This increase is still relatively small (+1.85%) but it certainly beats the deficit we've been working with for the past nine months. Of note, the YTD median sales price has also increased (+1.45%) in 2014 -- and the time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has declined by 3.3% over the past year to 117 days.  Despite colder weather on the horizon, we likely don't have to worry about the pace of home sales cooling off too quickly. As shown above, 94 buyers made buying decisions (signed contracts) in October 2014 -- as compared to only 70 such buyers one year ago in October 2013. As such, we are likely to see another strong month of home sales in November 2014.  There are many factors that have created this upswing in home sales activity in 2014 (and particularly September and October) and one of them is the remarkably low mortgage interest rates. The national average for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage dipped back below 4% in October 2014 -- for the first time in over a year.  Finally, some price trends we've been waiting so long to see -- a modest improvement in median sales price. Perhaps we'll even hit a median sales price of $180K this year? That would finally bring us back to where we were in 2010. If you are buying or selling now, or will be soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire November 2014 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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With 676 homes for sale, will I have 676 great properties to choose from? |
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 As shown above, many homes currently listed for sale have already been on the market for some time, picked over by all of the current buyers in the market. That said, it's possible that one of these homes is the PERFECT house for you, and that seller has been patiently waiting nine months for YOU, the perfect buyer for the house. As we start your home search, we'll first look through the homes currently for sale (realizing that they won't all be great and exciting options) and then we'll start to monitor new listings as they come on the market. | |
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High end home sales lagging slightly behind in 2014 |
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Looking at high end home sales ($500K or higher) it would appear that the pace of sales in 2014 won't necessarily match that of 2013....  As shown above, home sales over $500K bounced back considerably in 2013. Perhaps some of that was pent up demand from previous years? It seems unlikely that we'll end up with 20 sales over $500K in 2014.  As shown above, home sales over $600K also are not faring as well this year as compared to last year.  The graph above would certainly lead us to believe that home sales over $700K will definitely take a hit in 2014. However, it's not all bad news, as there are currently four homes priced over $700K that are under contract....  | |
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What did buyers buy in August 2014? |
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I'm finding 118 properties in the MLS that went under contract in August 2014 that are either still under contract, or have closed. Here is what those 118 buyers decided to buy last month....  | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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