• 1750 SF, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
• 1950 SF, 3 bedrooms, bonus room, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
• 2150 SF, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, two-car garage

These types of homes have not been built in large quantity over the past ten years, and I believe there are plenty of buyers who would love to buy this type/size of home.

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As Jim, Jerry and Keith pointed out, It is expensive (!!!) to create a developed lot.  The cost of building roads, installing water an sewer lines, utility hook up fees, etc. all add up to make the costs quite high even before construction (pouring the foundation, framing the home) begins.

And as Nate points out -- if the land cannot be purchased by a builder at an affordable price, the rest of the equation downstream won't work out.  High costs for land, plus development costs, plus building costs, will result in unrealistically high prices for homes, that then won't be affordable (or desirable at that price point) to buyers.

Nate then ponders whether larger, regional builders can do better than local builders in this regard based on economies of scale.  I'm not sure if the savings would be in buying a larger tract of land, lower development (infrastructure costs), or lower building costs -- but I wonder the same.

Gary and Renee also point out that some of these "costs before you even start building" are high because of utility connection fees, requirements for stormwater management, proffers, etc., that are coming from government regulations and development requirements.

Ginny points out that the final cost of a house is largely dependent on the initial land and development costs.  Thus, to have smaller single family homes built, we may need to see smaller lots, to keep those initial costs down.

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DEMAND NEEDS TO DISCUSSED WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF PRICE

As Jim succinctly puts it, "If I want something I can't afford then it isn't really demand."  An excellent point -- which means that we need to think about (and talk about) the demand for the homes I outlined above (for example) within the context of the price for bringing such a home to market.

If the houses I described (1750 / 1950 / 2150 square feet) were able to be sold for $150K, $175K and $200K (obviously not realistic) then clearly, there would be a ridiculously high demand for them.

I believe that if the houses I described could be sold for $250K, $275K and $300K there would still be a strong demand for them. 

But, clearly, if the homes could not be sold for any less than (I'm exaggerating again) $400K, $425K and $450K then likely NOBODY would want want to buy them.

So, yes, when we talk about demand for a particular type of housing, it likely should be -- as best as possible -- set within a context of price.  That price-based demand can then be compared to development and building costs to see if developer and builders can bring such a product to market at a price that it will sell.

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WHAT SHOULD WE BE ADDING TO OUR HOUSING STOCK?

As Jim also points out, the high demand and low supply environment we're in right now COULD cause a large quantity of under-qualified builders to start building homes.  This doesn't help, in the long-term, as it is adding lower quality homes to our housing stock, which I do not believe helps our community in the long-term.

Jim goes on to suggest that we should be ensuring that we are adding quality homes to our housing stock.  I agree -- though I do think that we need to find a balance.  If the quality of materials and finishes is too high, we're pricing ourselves out of the ability to meet the demand we're discussing.

Michael takes us in a different direction when considering what should be built.  He points out that even beyond building for all of those townhouse buyers (the original reason for my suggestion that we need to build mid sized detached homes) that he believes there is also a significant demand for affordable housing for the elderly in our community.  He points out that retirement communities are not affordable for everyone, and plenty of older adults in our community would love to move into an affordable, (one-level), wheelchair accessible home.  Again -- another market segment where we are not seeing much new construction.

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WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO IF WE DON'T BUILD THESE HOMES?

Ginny suggests that homeownership may be delayed for some families.  A good point -- if the homes they want aren't available at the prices they can afford, perhaps they'll keep renting or keep living in the townhome they purchased.

Ginny also suggests that we'll see more remodeling or upgrading of current homes to accommodate growing families, which also makes sense.

Keith suggests that people will just have to move to some of the more affordable towns surrounding Harrisonburg.  There are more affordable detached housing options when you look to Broadway, Timberville, Elkton and Grottoes.  So, perhaps the townhome owners will just have to settle for a bit of a commute in order to buy a mid sized detached home that fits their budget.

Jim suggests that maybe higher costs for new homes means that it will take much longer for families to be able to buy a home -- and perhaps they will have to stay in one home for a lifetime, instead of moving every 5 - 7 years.

Gary concludes that many in our community may simply have to rent, or keep living in a townhouse, because of the cost of building new homes.

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CONCLUSIONS

There were many other great points made, and discussions beginning, so thanks to all who engaged in this topic.  A few big picture thoughts that come to mind for me....

• There would seem to be many buyers who would be interested in mid sized single family homes.
   
• Mid sized single family homes are not (in any significant number) being built.
   
• Because of land, development and building costs, It may not be possible to build mid sized single family homes at prices that would appeal to the buyers who want the homes.
   
• Our market presents a unique opportunity to a land owner / developer / builder (be that one, two or three different people) who can figure out to bring this type of product to market at a price that will work for the buyers who want the homes.
  

Keep the conversations going, folks, on Facebook, with me, with each other.  As Jim points out, "we're going to have to do housing differently than it has been built in the past 30 years if we are going to provide sustainable, affordable housing."

• The "Continued Residential Development" area is still owned by the developer that is developing and building homes at Preston Lake -- MLK Preston Lake LLC.
   
• The land being developed for apartments was sold by the Preston Lake developer (MLK Preston Lake LLC) to an entity called "Mid Town Square LLC" for $2,500,000 back on December 27, 2016.
   
• The balance of the land for future commercial development is owned by "TMC Harrisonburg LLC" -- which I believe is the same or similar ownership as the Preston Lake development company.

As it pertains to the 168 apartments....

"State Corporation Commission records list William Park of Charlottesville as the registered agent for Mid Town Square. Park is co-owner of Park Properties Management and president of Pinnacle Construction & Development Corp., which builds the apartments."

"Park's companies are behind two complexes in the area.

Park Properties Management owns and operates the Colonnade Apartments, 66 rent-assisted units on North Mason Street in Harrisonburg, as well as The Landings at Weyers Cave, the complex sandwiched between Interstate 81 and U.S. 11 just north of Va. 256.

The company also offers a high-end product. Windigrove Apartments in Waynesboro has been open for years, and The Lofts at Jubal Square are under construction in Winchester."