Archive for September 2024
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Will The Unique Features Of Your Home Broaden Or Narrow The Buyer Pool? |
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 When you are getting ready to sell your home, we'll need to think about how large the pool of buyers will be who will consider your home. Clearly, the more buyers who can and will consider your home, the better. A variety of aspects of your home will limit the size of that pool of potential buyers for predictable reasons...
But then, we get to the more unique features of your home... some such features will broaden the buyer pool... and some might narrow it. For example... Every bedroom has it's own bathroom - this would likely broaden the pool of buyers who will consider your home. Custom tile flooring throughout with a bold color palette - this might narrow the pool of buyers. Screened porch and deck and two patios - this would probably broaden the pool of buyers. Elaborate landscaping - this might narrow the pool of buyers if they worry about landscaping maintenance The list could go on and on. Let's make sure to evaluate how large of a pool of buyers be willing to consider your home based on it's relatively routine... and more unique... features. | |
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Farmland Behind Houses Does Not Always Remain Farmland |
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 "I love this house because it backs up to farmland." "The views from this house are great because there aren't any other houses behind it." "This home offers such great privacy without any neighbors behind it - just wide open farmland." All of these are reasonable sentiments, but remember... Farmland Behind Houses Does Not Always Remain Farmland If you own (or are buying) a house in a residential area that currently backs up to farmland... 1. That farmland might remain farmland for as long as you own the house. 2. That farmland might become housing some day. Most farmland is zoned for agricultural use -- so if the farmland behind your house is zoned as such, a potential builder or developer will have to apply to have the land rezoned. Thus, you'll likely get some sort of notice that someone intends to turn that farmland into housing. Buying a home that backs up to farmland is a great idea - you'll likely love having only a farm as a back neighbor - but remember that the farmland might not always remain as farmland. | |
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Sometimes One Offer Spurs On Additional Offers |
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 This dynamic is common with brand new listings and listings that have been on the market for a few weeks. Brand New Listing... Eight showings over the first three days, but no offers. Then, an offer is received, other showing agents are notified, and three more offers are submitted. Few Week Old Listing... Nine showings over the first three weeks, but no offers. Then, an offer is received, other showing agents are notified, and two more offers are submitted. It's almost as if some buyers need to know other people want to buy a house before they are willing to decide they want to buy the house. So... Sellers - Don't despair if you don't have an offer yet - when an offer comes in, it could actually result in more than one offer. Buyers - Who will you be? The first buyer to make an offer, or will you wait until someone else does and then jump in? | |
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Indeed, As Mortgage Interest Rates Decline, More Buyers Will Be Able To Afford To Buy Your Home |
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 Mortgage interest rates have been declining for about five months now... Early May = 7.22% Early August = 6.47% Mid September = 6.09% Will we even see a FIVE-point-something mortgage interest rate soon? Quite possibly. As any home buyer will tell you, these lower mortgage interest rates are GREAT... they are lowering mortgage payments for buyers getting ready to buy a home. And... for the home sellers... these interest rates are also GREAT... they allow more buyers to afford to buy your home! If you're getting ready to buy a home, but haven't talked to your mortgage lender in a few months, you should reconnect with them and ask for an updated estimate of your mortgage payment given these newer, lower mortgage interest rates. | |
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A Reasonable Next Question Is How Much More New Housing Should Harrisonburg Approve |
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 These two stats create an interesting follow up question... 1. Over the past 3.5 years, the City of Harrisonburg has approved 2,866 new dwelling units. 2. Over the past 3.5 years only 25 of those dwellings have been built. The reasonable follow up question is... How Much More New Housing Should Harrisonburg Approve? In conversations, locally, I hear two very different opinions about the answer to that question... 1. The City should keep approving more housing developments so that hopefully, eventually, some of the housing will be built, as there is a shortage of housing in the City. 2. The City has approved so much housing over the past three (+) years that the City definitely shouldn't approve any additional housing. If or when some or all of this approved housing is built the City will have a population increase that will likely result in the need for more schools (and other infrastructure) and thus higher taxes. It will be interesting to see City planning staff's perspective on this, as well as that of the Planning Commission and City Council as future rezoning requests are proposed in the City to allow for additional residential developments. | |
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I Just Decided I Want To Buy A Home. How Quickly Do I Need To Go See That House Over There? |
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 So, you just decided you are going to buy a house. Excellent. The Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area are a pretty great place to live - and if you're buying a house it likely means you plan to stick around for a while. So, back to your question -- how quickly do you need to go see that house over there? Well, it depends, on how long it has been on the market. A popular new listing towards the end of last week had eight (+) offers within just a few days of being listed for sale. So, if the house of interest is a new listing, you might need to go see it immediately to have a chance at pursuing it. But some houses currently listed for sale have been on the market for 30 to 60 days or longer. You should go ahead and schedule a time to go see these houses - but it could probably wait a day or two - you probably don't need to drop everything and go at this very moment to see the house. So, as a new buyer... 1. While not mentioned above, get preapproved with a lender ASAP. 2. Hurry out to see the brand new listings of interest. 3. See slightly older listings (on the market for two or more weeks) with some haste, but it doesn't necessarily need to be with quite as much urgency. | |
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While Lots Of New Housing Has Been Approved In The City, Very Little Has Been Built |
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 Over the past 3.5-ish years, since January 2021... in the City of Harrisonburg... 2,886 new dwelling units have been approved 25 have been built Wow! Indeed, City Council has approved a LOT of new housing over the past few years, including...
And yet, over that same timeframe, the only housing to be completed includes...
Of note... these "25 units completed" does not include the following housing units that were completed over the past 3.5 years that were already approved 3.5 years ago, consisting of...
So, housing has certainly been built in the City over the past 3.5 years (a total of 209 dwellings) but that pales in comparison to the many (many!) units that have been approved and have not been built. Of those that have not been built... some new housing units are being actively planned, while the planning has stalled out on some. You can view a list of the approved developments in a memorandum to City Council here and a presentation about the housing pipeline here. | |
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Contract Activity Continues To Track Slower This Year Than Last In September |
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 The graph above shows contract activity per month... comparing 2023 (grey line) to 2024 (red line) for each month between April and September. For the first three months (April through June) we were seeing more contracts signed this year than last. For the most recent three months (July through September) we have been seeing fewer contracts signed this year than last. The September data points are projected totals for the month based on contract activity between September 1 and 17 of this year and last year. Will the second half of September surprise us? Will we see an uptick in contract activity? What has been keeping contract activity over the past few months? Will changes in mortgage interest rates over the next few weeks or months impact contract activity? Stay tuned to see how the Fall housing market starts to shape up in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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242 New Homes On 92 Acres Planned At Granite Farm Just West Of Harrisonburg |
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 The property shown above is located in Rockingham County but the owner and developer would like water and sewer service to be provided by the City of Harrisonburg. Way back in 2004, the City approved providing water and sewer service for 285 homes. Then, back in 2006, the property was rezoned to allow for the development. The rezoning is still valid... but the applicant has to ask the City again for public utility access. Last week the Planning Commission approved the request and next up City Council will consider it. It appears that this new home development, Granite Farm, would be developed by D.R. Horton. You can find the details of the public utility access request here. Here's an aerial from Google Maps to show the context for this planned residential development, though the shape of the development parcel is a bit skewed in this perspective...  Here's a top down view with a broader context from the Rockingham County GIS...  | |
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Contract Activity Cools Slightly After Strong Summer Surge in Home Sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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 Happy Monday Morning, Friends! We are just six days from the first day of Fall... and it's starting to feel like it! High temperatures are peaking in the 70's instead of the 80's this week... the leaves are starting to change colors... and we're back to having fun watching JMU football games...  My niece, Sofia, just started college at UNC Charlotte, so Luke and I were excited to go down to visit her and to take in the first JMU football game of the season. Here's looking forward to some further fun as the season continues! Go Dukes!!! Before we dive into the real estate data... as one last reminder of summer... I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Sweet Frog. Yes, I know, we can enjoy Sweet Frog all year round, but it's particularly tasty on a warm summer evening. So, if you're a fan of Sweet Frog frozen yogurt (and all the toppings!) click here to enter the gift card. And now, on to the latest in our local real estate market...  Above you'll see a basic overview of the amount of homes that are selling these days, and the prices at which they are selling. A few things to note... # Sales: We saw more home sales this August than last (+9%) and even though we've seen fewer home sales over the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months (-2%) we are seeing an increase (+8%) in the first eight months of 2024 as compared to the same timeframe last year. So... more homes are selling this year than sold last year, and... Prices: In every time horizon I explored above (1M, 3M, 6M, 12M, YTD) I found an increase in the median sales price. I'll focus in on the year to date number, however, where we see a 4% increase in the median sales price when looking at homes selling in the first eight months of this year (median of $342,490) compared to the first eight months of last year (median of $330,000). As we continue, we'll want to see how the performance of different market segments compare to this market wide 4% increase in the median sales price. First up, detached home sales...  Interestingly... [1] Despite an 8% market-wide increase in home sales thus far in 2024... we're only seeing a 4% increase in the number of detached homes that are selling. [2] Despite only a 4% increase in the median sales price in the overall market (detached + attached) we're actually seeing an 11% increase in the median sales price of detached homes in 2024. As we continue through this report, you'll note a variety of charts and graphs that indicate that price growth is slowing to only 4%... but that is the overall market, whereas detached home median sales prices still seem to be climbing more quickly than the overall market. Dialing in now on one specific geographic area... the City of Harrisonburg...  It has been increasingly difficult to find a house to buy in the City of Harrisonburg. As shown above, in the first eight months of 2022 we saw 303 home sales in the City, last year that dropped to 226 sales and this year only 198 sales. To be clear... this is almost entirely a supply side issue - there aren't enough property owners willing to sell their homes, and there isn't much new construction happening in the City these days. Despite that restriction in the market in the City of Harrisonburg, we are still seeing only a 4% increase in the median sales price when comparing the first eight months of this year to the first eight months of last year... and the median sales price in the City of Harrisonburg is still under $300K thus far in 2024. And how about out in Rockingham County? How are things going there?  We are seeing a significant increase (+16%) in the number of homes selling in Rockingham County thus far in 2024 compared to in the same timeframe in 2023. You can't see it from the chart above, but a lot of that increase in the number of homes selling is a result of new homes being built in the County. Median prices, however, continue to rise in Rockingham County at that same 4% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe last year. New home construction... it's on the rise? Yes, indeed, it is...  We've seen 253 new home sales thus far in 2024... which is a 27% increase from the first eight months of 2023... though interesting, it's slightly fewer than we saw two years ago, in 2022. I expect we will continue to see quite a bit of new home construction over the next few years... and we need it... as we continue to see high levels of demand from home buyers. So, if we're seeing a 27% increase in new home sales, how about those existing home sales? Are they also increasing at that pace? Ummm... nope...  In contrast to the 27% increase in new home sales thus far in 2024... we have only seen a 3% increase in existing home sales. Lots and lots of homeowners are just staying put and not selling their homes. Now, let's get to some of the graphs, to get a clearer picture of some of the trends we have been discussing...  August marks the fourth month in a row with more home sales (closed home sales) than during the same month last year. This has been an active summer of real estate closings... though homes often go under contract a month or two before they make it to closing... so this busy summer of real estate closings was the result of a busy late Spring and early Summer of contracts, which we'll see shortly. To put this year in the context of the past two years...  Home sales in 2024 are definitely exceeding 2023 levels... but pale in comparison to 2022. I expect we might see some further upward momentum in home sales later in 2024 if or when we see further relief in mortgage interest rates. More on that later. Here is an illustration of the two overall trends we're seeing right now in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...  First off, at the top, home price growth is slowing. Testing your reading comprehension and short term memory... do you recall that the overall market is seeing only a ___% increase in the median sales price while the detached home segment of the market is seeing an ___% increase in the median sales price? ;-) Overall Market = 4% increase; Detached Homes = 11% increase. And... that second line (the blue one) at the bottom... shows us that aver steady declines from over 1,700 sales a year down to about 1,200 sales a year, we are now seeing some overall increases in the number of homes selling in our market. Back to those detached homes for a moment...  Here's you'll note the *absence* of a flattening out of the median sales price line in green. While the overall market is only seeing a 4% increase in median sales prices in 2024, thus far this year detached homes have been selling at prices that are 11% higher than last year. Earlier I talked about a busy summer of closings which was a result of earlier contract activity. This next graph shows current contract activity, which is a predictor of home sales activity over the next month or two...  On the left side of the graph above you can see quite a few months of much higher contract activity this year (red line) than last year (blue line) -- particularly in March, April and May. But then, contract activity declined in July and August to levels below where we were a year ago. Looking ahead, we will most likely see a similar number of homes going under contract in September as we did in August, before contract activity likely starts to decline even further in October. This recent slow down in contract activity has also shown up in the pending sales metric, which tracks how many homes are under contract at any given point...  After seven months of riding high above 2023 levels, we have now seen pending sales drop below 2023 levels in August. This is mostly a result of slower months of contract activity in July and August. It's certainly possible that we'll see pending sales pop back up again as we work our way through September and October... but the 2023 and 2024 trajectories have crossed as of the end of August. But wait... if pending sales are declining, that must mean inventory is rising?  Sorta kinda. Inventory levels dropped to their lowest levels at the end of June... but rose again in July and remained steady at that point in August. Of note... inventory levels consistently climbed last year between June and October... but that was during the exact same timeframe when mortgage interest rates were climbing to their highest levels in 20 years. I do not expect that we will see inventory levels climb that high in September and October this year. But speaking of climbing... will days on market start to climb soon?  After quite a few years of absurdly, consistently low median days on market, we have seen some variability in this metric over the past two years. That pace at which homes go under contract (days on market) slowed during each of the past fall/winter seasons, so perhaps we'll start seeing that again in 2024. Finally, that one little (or big) number that seems to have been having an oversized impact on the housing market over the past few years... mortgage interest rates...  After peaking at 7.79% last October (the highest level in 20+ years) we have started to see some relief in mortgage interest rates -- particularly over the past three to six months. As of June, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage had fallen below 7%, and now we're closer to 6% than 7%. The Federal Reserve might be announcing a rate cut this Wednesday... though some say that the recent anticipation of that rate cut has already been priced into adjustments in mortgage interest rates. So, let's play a bit of up and down in 2024...
So, as we look ahead at the final three and a half months of the year (yes, that's all that remains) here are a few things to keep in mind... Home Buyers - Many segments of the local market are still rather competitive (multiple offers) but plenty of homes aren't going under contract within two days. Get preapproved now, go see houses quickly when they hit the market, and be prepared to make a rapid, but thoughtful decision about whether to make an offer. Home Sellers - Some, but not all, houses are going under contract quickly. The more broadly appealing your home is to buyers (based on size, location, house features, lot features, etc.) the more quickly we are likely to receive offers. If there are some attributes of your home that disqualify broad segments of the pool of potential buyers, then we are likely to have a longer wait for an offer... and we might have to adjust your list price more than the market data would otherwise suggest in order to inspire a buyer to make an offer. The data and observations I have presented in this market report are a high level overview of our overall market. If you're getting ready to buy or thinking about selling, we should be chatting more specifically about your segment of the market -- what you will be buying, or selling. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. | |
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Most Listing Have A First Round Of Showings Followed By A Slower Pace Of Showings Over Time |
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 We are no longer in a real estate market where EVERY home will go under contract VERY, VERY quickly. That was the case for a few years, but it's not now. Thus, while some homes do go under contract very quickly, some do not. And for those that do not go under contract quickly we find this to be true... Most Listing Have A First Round Of Showings Followed By A Slower Pace Of Showings Over Time Within the first week of your home being on the market you will likely see more showings than you'll have any other week that your home is on the market. That first week is all (or most) of the buyers who have been in the market to buy for some time, who haven't yet found what they are looking for in a home. But after that first week passes, and all of the current buyers in your market segment have come to see your home, we will then be in the marketing and waiting and marketing and waiting stage of selling your home. We will be attempting to reach new prospective buyers with our marketing efforts... and we will be waiting for new buyers to enter the market ready to buy. So... if your house is going on the market soon, know that you'll likely have a good amount of showings in the first week... but then that the showings will slow down quite a bit in the weeks that follow. | |
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When Is A Home Seller Likely To Consider Your Home Sale Contingency? |
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 So, you have a home to sell before you can buy your next home... and you are not able to arrange financing to be able to buy before selling? Let's think through when a seller is likely to consider -- or not consider -- your home sale contingency. 1. If your home is not yet on the market for sale, and a house you want to buy was just listed and has lots of showings and talk of offers -- the seller is not likely to consider your offer with a home sale contingency. 2. If your home is listed for sale, and under contract, and a house you want to buy was just listed and has lots of showings and talk of offers -- the seller might be willing to consider your offer with a home sale contingency, if they don't receive (or think they will receive) an offer without such a contingency. 3. If your home it not yet on the market for sale, but the house you want to buy has been on the market for a few months without going under contract -- the seller might just be willing to consider your offer with a home sale contingency to give you time to hopefully secure a contract on your home as well to be able to proceed towards closing. So... whether a home seller will accept your home sale contingency is related to whether your house is already listed for sale, and if your house is already under contract, and whether the house you want to buy is a recent listing and whether the house you want to buy has lots of other competing buyer interest. So, it's not impossible to buy a home with a home sale contingency -- but it won't allow you to successfully pursue every house that you might want to buy. | |
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Educate Yourself On The Real Estate Market By Starting To Look At Homes Sooner Rather Than Later |
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 Buyer: I plan to buy a home next spring or summer, so I'll be back in touch in March to start looking at homes. Me: If you have the time and energy for it, we should start looking at homes now or soon. A home buyer's default tendency is often to wait to start looking at homes until they are good and ready to buy. But... there are some very good reasons why some home buyers start looking at homes before they are actually ready to buy. 1. Looking at homes now will familiarize you with the market and will start to help you understand the relative value of any given house. 2. Looking at homes now will help you clarify what you want or need in a next home - or will help you and your co-buyer talk those things through to reach a stronger consensus. 3. Looking at homes now will allow us to start to talk through the nuances of the home buying process. And then... when you are good and ready to actually buy... you'll already have some familiarity with market dynamics, you'll already have great clarity on your goals for your next home, and you'll already understand many aspects of the buying process. So... if you are thinking you might buy a home in the spring... it's not a bad idea to start looking at houses now. | |
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If You Can Buy A House Before Selling Your Current House, Consider Keeping Your Current House As A Rental Property |
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 This isn't universally applicable advice for all homeowners who are selling and buying, but it's worth considering if you find yourself in this situation... If You Can Buy A House Before Selling Your Current House, Consider Keeping Your Current House As A Rental Property Here's what I mean and why... You might already be a homeowner... but find yourself ready to buy a new home. You might be considering selling the current home and buying a new one for a variety of reasons -- to get to a larger house, or a smaller one, or one with different rooms in different places, or to move to a new school district, and on and on. If you are in this situation... of getting ready to sell and then buy... you'll likely want to explore whether you have the financial capability to buy before you sell. After all, your offer to buy a house will look much more compelling to a seller if you do not have a home sale contingency in that offer. And thus, if you talk to your lender and find out that you can buy before you sell, it is often then reasonable to stop and consider whether you could buy... and then not sell at all! If you buy a new home and then do NOT sell your current home... 1. You can rent your current home, often for more or much more than your current mortgage payment. 2. You can put your excess rental income towards your new mortgage payment, while also putting some aside for maintenance costs on the house you are keeping. 3. The rental rate on the house you keep will likely continue to increase over time. 4. Your tenants will be paying down your mortgage on the home you kept instead of selling. 5. Over the long term, you will own two houses that are appreciating in value, rather than just one. There are plenty of reasons why you might not keep the house you are selling... because you don't want to be a landlord, or you don't like the larger financial risk, or you are moving out of the area... but if you can buy before selling, let's talk the "keeping the house" idea through before you commit to selling your current house. | |
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Would You Sell Your Home If You Do Not Know What You Will Buy? |
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 For most folks, the answer is no... ...they would not sell their home if they do not yet know what they will buy. And, since there are still currently more buyers in the market than sellers... it likely makes sense to ensure you have a solid plan for what you will buy before you start down the path to selling. Otherwise... we might get your house on the market, get excited about quite a few showings, be thrilled about receiving several offers with highly favorable terms... only to realize that you aren't actually ready to commit to selling your home if you don't have a new home to purchase. So... if you're ready to move from one house to the next... let's make sure we're confident that we can sell your current home... but we might need to start by focusing on what you will buy... before starting the process of selling your current home. | |
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Can Your Current Home Grow With You? |
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 I'd love for mortgage interest rates to not be the sub-text for most real estate conversations, but it's the world we live in right now. 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates were below 4% from May 2019 through March 2022. During that time, lots of folks bought homes, and lots of folks refinanced their mortgages to get to pretty low mortgage interest rates. Thus, many homeowners (with low mortgage interest rates) find themselves considering whether their current home can grow with them as their needs change. If you need another bedroom in your home (as your family grows, or as you start working from home) you could either... 1. Sell your home and buy a new, larger home. 2. Reconfigure our renovate your current home to get the extra space that you need. Given that most homeowners have super low mortgage interest rates, many such homeowners are leaning heavily into the second option -- staying and trying to allow your home to grow with your needs. But... it isn't always possible. Some homes just don't have the right amount of space, or the right space in the right space, to allow them to grow to fit your growing needs. And thus, some homeowners find themselves concluding that as much as they would like to stay in their home and keep their mortgage interest rate - they need to get to a new house to have a space that works for them for years to come. | |
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Lower Mortgage Interest Rates Will Likely Bring More Buyers Into The Market But Maybe Not More Sellers |
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 As noted yesterday... August 2023 & 2024 = higher mortgage interest rates, fewer contracts signed August 2022 = lower mortgage interest rates, higher contracts signed What's the connection? The higher the mortgage interest rates... 1. The fewer buyers who can and are willing to buy. ...but also... 2. The fewer sellers who are willing to sell and give up their (likely) low mortgage interest rate on their current home. So... if or when or as mortgage interest rates decline... will we see higher levels of contract activity? Maybe. Maybe not. As mortgage interest rates decline... 1. More buyers will be able and willing to buy. ...but... 2. Sellers might still be reluctant to sell, as lower mortgage interest rates won't necessarily be lower than their locked in mortgage interest rates. Thus, I suspect as mortgage interest rates decline, we'll see the pool of would be buyers expanding more quickly than the pool of would be sellers. | |
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An Early Look At August Contract Activity |
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 August 2024 was another busy month of buyers and sellers signing contracts to buy and sell homes. While 109 buyers and sellers signed contracts last August (2023) we saw about the same number (107) sign contracts this August (2024). Looking in a slightly longer context, both of these months of August are a good bit below the 140 contracts signed in August 2022. For a bit more context, here is the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate at the start of August for each of the past three years... August 2024 = 6.73% August 2023 = 6.90% August 2022 = 4.99% I think it is very reasonable to conclude that the lower numbers of sellers being willing to sell and buyers being willing to buy in August 2023 and 2024 are related to the higher mortgage interest rate during those years. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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