Analysis
| Older Posts |
 |
 |
Year End Recap Shows 12% Increase In Home Sales, 5% Higher Sales Prices In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
|
 Happy New Year, friends! The high temperature actually made it up to 40 degrees today, a slight reprieve from the frigid temperatures over the past week. I think we've had more snow this January (eight inches or so) than we've had for the past few winters... and the super low temperatures are causing it to stick around much longer than it usually does in the Shenandoah Valley. I hope by now you are mostly shoveled out and that you are enjoying the snowy winter scenes that seem likely to stick around for another week or so! I have good news to report... I closed out 2024 much more safely than I started the year. :-) December 31, 2023 - Ran in the VA Momentum NYE Glow Run 5K, slipped, fell, sprained my ankle and hobbled my way through most of January. December 31, 2024 - Ran in the VA Momentum NYE Glow Run 5K, stayed on my feet and sustained no injuries, despite a very rainy finish.  Two takeaways here... [1] If your 2024 had a rough start, I hope you also had a strong and happy close to your year. [2] VA Momentum puts on some super fun running events -- energizing communities for good -- I hope to see you at one in 2025! Now, then, if you're looking for a fun dinner spot for later this month, consider checking out Rocktown Kitchen, a farm-to-table restaurant on Liberty Street in Harrisonburg, just across from the Farmer's Market. I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Rocktown Kitchen this month to one of you readers of my monthly market report - so click here to enter to win the gift card. And now, on to the real estate data... with a note to you, the reader, before we start... We just closed out 2024, so I'm looking back at a full year of data, and thus there will be a few more charts, and a few more graphs in this report than usual. Read through it all in detail, or scroll and skim, or ignore it all and just email or text me (540-578-0102) to set up a time for me to explain it all to you in person over coffee or breakfast. ;-) First up, the overall residential sales market in 2024...  The chart above outlines sales trends over multiple different timeframes, but the one I'm focusing on today is highlighted and shows the entirety of 2024. There were 12% more home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2024 than in 2023. The median sales price of all homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County increased by 5% in 2024... to $345,095. Of all of the home sales in 2024:
Here's what's happening in the detached home segment of our local market...  Interestingly... [1] Compared to the 12% increase in all home sales, we have only seen a 6% increase in detached home sales. This means that more of the recovery (12% increase) in the quantity of homes selling was in attached homes. [2] While the market-wide median sales price only increased 5% in 2024... the median sales price of detached homes increased by... 11%. The median sales price of detached homes selling in 2024 was $388,000. So, about those attached home sales...  While we only saw a 6% increase in the number of detached homes that sold in 2024... we saw a 24% increase in attached home sales! That's a lot more townhouse, duplex and condo sales in 2024! But... despite that increase in the number of attached homes that are selling, the median sales price of those attached homes only increased by 2% over the past year... to $306,000. Having sliced and diced sales by property type, let's do so by location as well, starting with the City of Harrisonburg...  As shown above, fewer homes sold in 2024 than 2023 in the City of Harrisonburg. Over the past three years we have seen the number of City home sales decline from 425 to 296 to 283. A significant part of the decline in City home sales is because there is very few new homes are being built to be purchased in the City of Harrisonburg. The number of opportunities to buy a home in the City is almost entirely depend on resale home sales. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County, we are seeing a steady supply of new homes being built, and thus the following chart probably won't surprise you...  Rockingham County has seen 17% more home sales this year than last year. With new construction continuing in multiple neighborhoods in the county, we are likely to continue to see strong home sales in the county over the next few years. Speaking of new home sales... here's a variety of news on that front...  New home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (mostly Rockingham County) increased 29% in 2024. That said, the number of new home sales in 2024 was actually slightly lower than in 2022. The median sales price of new homes in 2024 was only 1% higher than in 2023... though both years showed a median sales price about 12% higher than in 2022. Given that more and more people want to make Harrisonburg and Rockingham County their home, and given that current mortgage interest rates are keeping lots of existing homeowners from selling their homes, the construction of new homes is an important part of allowing our community to continue to grow. Here are some more details on why we need those new homes if we want buyers to have homes to buy...  Existing home sales increased 6% in 2024... but the 961 existing home sales in 2024 is still 18% lower than in 2022. We saw somewhat of an increase in existing homeowners being willing to sell, but not enough to keep up with buyer demand. Now, on to some graphs to help better understand a few more trends...  A few notes on the lines on the graph above... red = sales per month in 2024 blue = sales per month in 2023 grey = sales per month, on average, between 2020 and 2023 Since May 2024, most 2024 monthly sales counts were above the same month in 2023 with two exceptions... October 2024 sales were slightly below (-1) October 2023. November 2024 sales were drastically higher (+59) than November 2023. December, then, ended about where we'd expect it -- with 89 home sales, compared to 85 last year. Looking ahead, we are likely to see between 75 and 100 home sales per month for the next two months before we get into the busier sales season starting in March. Switching back to viewing the year as a whole, 2024 beat 2023, but lost to the three years before that...  In total, 2024 came in 4th out of 5 spots when looking at the total number of home sales per year for each of the past five years. So, home sales are on the rise again, but just compared to a particularly slow 2023. Speaking of particularly slow... a year(ish) ago is when things slowed most significantly...  Annual home sales steadily declined from 1,728 sales in mid-2022 down to 1,206 sales in December 2023. That was the lowest annual sales we have seen in the past five plus years... and the pace of annual sales has been rising again ever since. But... while we have seen an increase in the number of homes that are selling over the past year... we are seeing a slowing in rate at which the median sales price of those homes is increasing. That was a lot of words to say that after several years of median sales prices increasing by 10% per year, in 2024 the median sales price only increased by 5%. OK. Still a lot of words. Stretching a bit further back in time, we can create a bit more context...  A few things to note related to the 1,347 home sales seen in 2024 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... [1] The three years in the past decade when we have seen more sales in a year were ones where home sales activity was fueled on by a COVID-induced home buying spree (more people working from home) and historically low mortgage interest rates. [2] We are now (in 2024) back to the number of home sales we were seeing in a year pre-Covid. I expect we will see the number of home sales continue to increase in our area in 2025. Also shown above, the median sales price increased by 10% - 11% for four years in a row: 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. We have now seen a smaller increase (+5%) in the median sales price in 2024 and I expect a similar (5% or less) increase in 2025. Shifting gears a bit, to contract activity, the last two months of 2024 were as slow as you might have expected they would be...  The 91 contracts signed in November 2024 and the 85 signed in December 2024 were about what I expected we would see in the final two months of the year. These tend to be slower months of the year for contract activity -- compared to 120 to 140 contracts being signed in some spring and summer months. Inventory levels are also quite low, as you might expect at this time of year...  Since July 2024, inventory levels have been falling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, particularly compared to a year ago. That is to say that there are fewer homes available to a buyer at any given time now compared to a year ago. There are 138 homes currently on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... compared to 185 a year ago at this time. Finally, let's look at mortgage interest rates...  Everything is new. Everything is still the same. Mortgage interest rose in 2024. They fell. They rose again. The average (30 year fixed) mortgage interest rate closed out 2024 at 6.85%... a smidge above the 6.61% level where it was a year prior... which was another smidge above the 6.42% from a year before that. While it would be wonderful to think we would see mortgage interest rates close to 6%, or a bit below that, in 2025 - I think it is more likely that mortgage interest rates will stay between 6.5% and 7% in the coming year. Phew! You made it to the end. :-) One of the reasons I compile all of this data each month is because I educate myself through the process of researching, analyzing and writing this report. This, then, provides me with a good sense of overall market trends to help me advise home buyers and sellers as they buy and sell houses in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. If you want to move beyond the basics of these broad trends, I'm happy to chat with you directly. These are the most frequent reasons why I'm hearing from someone like you after I send out this report... 1. I plan to sell my house in the next few months and want to better understand the market in my neighborhood and price range. 2. I hope to buy a home in the next few months and want to better understand the process and the market for what I'm looking to buy. 3. I would like to buy a new (to me) home - but would need to sell my house in order to do so. What does this look like and can this even work in the current market? You might have these questions, or any number of other questions, related to thinking about buying a house, selling your house, or real estate in general. Feel free to reach out if I can be of help to you as you explore these topics in 2025. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. I'll send you another update on the local housing market in February. I assume by then the current snow on the ground will have melted... maybe? Stay warm! | |
 |
 |
|
|
More And More Homes That Are Selling Are New Homes |
|
 Between 2015 and 2020 we were seeing new home sales making up between 10% and 15% of all home sales. Since then, the portion of all home sales that are new home sales has increased significantly. After a small jump to 19% in 2021 we then saw the new home sale share of the market increase to 26% in 2022, 25% in 2023 and then... 29% in 2024. That is to say that almost one in every three homes that sells is a new home. With multiple local, regional and national builders developing communities in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, I think it is likely that we will continue to see at least 25% of all home sales being new home sales -- and that could increase up to 30% or higher in 2025. | |
|
|
|
|
Reviewing My Predictions From Last Year For The 2024 Real Estate Market |
|
 The 2024 real estate surprised me -- at least as far as how many homes were purchased and sold. Mortgage interest rates remained quite high (compared to some of the past five years) throughout 2024, and yet, quite a few home buyers bought homes! Above you'll see actual versus predicted number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County within the context of the past few years... [1] Home sales were at or (almost) above 1,500 sales per year through 2020, 2021 and 2022 - due in large part to the Covid-19 pandemic and super low mortgage interest rates. [2] Home sales dropped quite significantly (-23%) in 2023. [3] I predicted that we would see about a 4% increase in home sales in 2024. [4] We actually saw... a 12% increase in home sales in 2024!?! Home sales bounced back much quicker than I thought they would in 2024. And how about those sales prices...  A few things to note above... [1] The median sales price jumped 10% (to 11%) per year in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Wow! [2] I predicted a 5% increase in the median sales price - from $330,000 to $346,500. [3] The actual increase in the median sales price was 4.7% -- from $330,000 to $345,542. So, we'll call that prediction a win once rounded. The median sales price did rise again in 2024, but not by nearly as much as in the three previous years. Stay tuned for my predictions for the 2025 real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales On The Rise Again In 2024 |
|
 Happy New Year! A few more 2024 home sales might be reported in the HRAR MLS over the next week -- but the total shown above will be relatively close to the total number of home sales for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County last year. A few observations about the graph above... [1] After two years of declining home sales (2022, 2023) we are now see home sales on the rise again in 2024. The final count (at this point) shows a 13% increase in home sales between 2023 and 2024. [2] The large number of home sales in 2020, 2021 and 2022 were at least in part impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, historically low mortgage interest rates, and a frenzy of buying activity as a result of more and more people working from home during that pandemic. If we ignored those three years of home sales for a moment, we'd find that the 1,339 home sales in 2024 was the highest number of home sales in a year in over 15 years. [3] Home sales declined significantly in 2023 due in part to significant increases in mortgage interest rates. These mortgage interest rates came down a bit in 2024, but not significantly, and yet, home sales rose again in 2024. What should we expect for 2025? I'll look ahead at some predictions for 2025 in the coming days. Stay tuned. | |
|
|
|
|
December Contract Activity Slower This Year Than Last |
|
 The chart above shows December contract activity for the past four years. The only caveat I'll add is that the last day of 2024 contract activity is not included in the chart, though that seems unlikely at this point to swing the 2024 data point very far. So, what is notable? 1. Far fewer (29% fewer) buyers signed contracts in this December than last - though that may also be related to how many sellers are willing to sell at the home. 2. About the same number of buyers (and sellers) signed contracts this December (2024) compared to two Decembers ago (2022) - though 2024 wins out by a few contracts. Because we have seen so much movement in mortgage interest rates over the past three years and because that can impact buyer behavior, it's probably also worth noting the following related to 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates... December 2023: average rate declined from 7.22% to 6.61% December 2024: average rate modulated between 6.60% and 6.85% Could those 101 December 2023 buyers have been reacting to declines mortgage interest rates? Possibly so. Could it be that there were more sellers willing to sell in December 2023 than in December 2024? This is also quite possible. | |
|
|
|
|
The End Of Double Digit Growth In Median Sales Prices, At Least For Now |
|
 Looking back over the past 24 years, there have been two multi-year periods of rapid increases in the median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... 2004 through 2006
This 2004 through 2006 timeframe was followed by eight years of no change or slight decreases in the median sales price. 2020 through 2023
All we know so far is that this 2020 through 2023 timeframe has been followed by one year (2024) of a slower but still significant (+5%) increase in the median sales price. | |
|
|
|
|
About One In Six Home Purchases Are Cash Purchases In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
|
 How many buyers do you think paid cash for the homes they purchased in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year? As shown above, about 1 in 6 buyers paid cash for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, per the HRAR MLS. These cash buyer might fit into a variety of customer categories... 1. Buyers who have built up equity in their homes over many years and thus are able to pay for that next house with cash rather than with a mortgage. 2. Buyers who are moving from a more expensive home market, who sold a home with some equity, which provided enough cash to purchase a home in the Harrisonburg market with cash. 3. Investor buyers who are paying cash to purchase a rental property. | |
|
|
|
|
An Early Look At November Home Sales! |
|
 Wow! I wasn't expecting this when I ran a few numbers on November home sales. Last November... only 72 home sales. This November... what!?!!?... 130 home sales. More analysis of November (and year-to-date) home sales coming soon, but for now... this was a much busier November than we experienced last year. By far. | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg |
|
 The most active price range for home sales in the City of Harrisonburg is... the $200K to $300K price range. But this might be more than just what buyers are buying... 1. The housing stock (what homes exist in the City) also impacts what is sold, and thus, what buyers can buy. 2. The houses that homeowners in the City are willing to sell also impacts what is old, and thus, what buyers can buy. An interesting unknown is whether home buyers would buy $500K+ or $600K+ or $700K+ homes in the City of Harrisonburg if more such homes existed. Quarry Heights may help to answer that question as they plan to build $500K+ detached homes and $600K+ attached villas. | |
|
|
|
|
How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? |
|
 It is common knowledge that the winter months are the slowest when it comes to home sales -- in our local market, and beyond. But just how much slower are they? The graph above shows the average number of *contracts signed* per month during the winter (Dec, Jan Feb) as compared to during the spring (Mar, Apr, May) based on the past three years of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. So... Is 100 buyers buying a month a significantly slower pace of buyers committing to buy than 142 buyers buying a month? Yes. Is 100 buyers buying a month still a pretty solid amount of buyers buying per month in the context of the spring market only comprising of 142 buyers buying a month? Yes. Is it possible that the number of buyers buying per month during the winter is artificially constrained by a lower number of sellers being willing to sell per month? Yes. So... if you are thinking about selling your home in the next six months... should you wait until spring? You could, but I don't think you need to if you would rather sell and move sooner than springtime. There will still be plenty of buyers buying over the winter, even if it is not as many as will be buying in the spring. | |
|
|
|
|
Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market |
|
 Happy Friday morning, all! November is flying right along... with a rather entertaining overlap of the JMU football and basketball seasons (Go Dukes!)... plus one of my favorite holidays, Thanksgiving! Speaking of JMU Basketball... each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away four tickets to the JMU Men's Basketball game on Saturday, December 7 at 4:00 PM. Click here to enter for a chance to win the tickets to cheer on the JMU Dukes! Now, on to the latest in our local housing market. First, some of the overall metrics...  Home sales slowed, a touch, in October 2024 with only 110 home sales as compared to 116 last October... but thus far this year we have seen 1,118 home sales, which is a 6% increase from the 1,050 seen in the same timeframe last year. So... 6% more home sales this year than last... and how about those prices... The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the first ten months of 2024 has been $345,000 -- which is a 5% increase from the median sales price of $330,000 last year at this time. So... 6% more home sales, and 5% higher prices... how about the speed of those sales... Median days on market continues to (slowly) increase in 2024... which a current median of 7 days, up from 6 days a year ago, and 5 days the prior year. So... small increases in the speed at which home sales go under contract, but 6% more home sales and 5% higher prices. Now, let's take a quick look at only single family detached housing, which excludes townhouses, duplexes and condos...  In contrast to the market-wide 6% increase in the number of homes that are selling, we are only seeing a 2% increase in the number of detached homes that are selling. Also of note, two years ago we had seen 941 detached home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County through the end of October, whereas we are only seeing 751 such sales thus far in 2024. When it comes to prices, we are seeing a stronger (12%) increases in the median sales price of detached homes as compared to the overall market-wide 5% increase in the median sales price. Furthermore, the median sales price of a single family detached home has increased from $327,000 to $390,900 over the past two years. Next up, let's take a peek just at the City of Harrisonburg...  While we are seeing increases in home sales in most portions of the market... and in the overall market... not so much in the City of Harrisonburg. There have only been 231 home sales in the City thus far in 2024 which is a 13% decline from last year, and a 39% decline from the 376 home sales seen in the first ten months of 2022. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...  Mirroring the 13% decline in City sales in 2024, we are finding a 13% increase in Rockingham County home sales thus far in 2024. One reason we are seeing more of an increase in home sales in the County than in the City is a result of most new home developments currently being built in the County... and not the City. Here's a look at the number of new construction homes selling in recent years...  And as you might imagine... if we're seeing a 28% increase in new home sales in the first ten months of 2024, we probably aren't seeing much of an increase in existing home sales...  Indeed, we are seeing a tiny decline in existing home sales this year (793) compared to last year (796) though both are considerably below the 1,042 existing homes that sold two years ago in the first 10 months of 2022. Rolling over now into some graphs, let's see what else we can learn about our local housing market through the end of October 2024...  For five of the past six months we have seen more home sales this year than last year... the one exception being October. We could also generalize and say that the larger increases in monthly sales (larger little gold arrows) were on the first half of the past six months... while the smaller increases (smaller little gold arrows) were on the second half of the past six months. Looking ahead a bit on the graph above... it seems almost guaranteed that we will see more November home sales this year than last. Last year we saw monthly home sales drop from 116 in October to 72 in November. I don't think we will see that large of a decline this year. When we pile up each month of the year on top of the prior months, here's what we get over the past few years...  Home sales are on the rise this year... increasing from 1,049 to 1,1118 in the first ten months of the year... BUT... that is still a significant drop from the 1,389 home sales seen in the first 10 months of 2022! The biggest difference, as you likely know, is that we were still experiencing super low mortgage interest rates in 2022... which were no longer around in 2023 and 2024. On this next graph I'm trying to generalize the main two shifts I have seen in 2024...  The top line is tracking median sales prices. For several years we saw 10% per year annual increases in the median sales price... up to and including in 2023... but home prices seem to be increasing a bit more slowly in 2024... more in the neighborhood of a 5% increase instead of a 10% increase. The other main change we have seen in 2024 is that home sales are rising again... so as to say that more homes are selling. Through most of 2023 we saw steady declines in the number of homes that were selling, but that trend reversed itself (slowly) in 2024. Zooming out a bit, take a look at the change in home values for detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past five years...  Indeed... you are reading that correctly... the median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased by $150,000 over the past five years... for a cumulative 62% increase! A few thoughts come to mind... 1. Anyone who has owned the same home for the past 5+ years likely has quite a bit of equity in their home. 2. It is a lot harder (financially) to consider buying a detached home now (median price of $391K) than it was five years ago (median price of $240K). 3. Changes in mortgage interest rates over the past five years haven't helped buyers either -- as the average rate on a 30 year mortgage was 3.75% five years ago, and is 6.78% today. Wowsa! Shifting gears a bit, let's zoom back in to the here and now, to see what recent contract activity might tell us about upcoming months of home sales...  Here (above) is the other reason why I don't think we'll see a decline in November home sales this year like we did last year... there was a drastic difference in October contract activity this year compared to last. The key thing to remember about last October is that it included the final climb to a peak average mortgage interest rate of 7.79%. That steady climb slowed and slowed and slowed down buyer activity last October (and November) as shown by the blue line above. Thus, even though mortgage interest rates are currently in the 6% - 6.75% range, we still saw many more buyers signing contracts to buy homes this October (138) as compared to last October (83). I expect we will continue to see stronger contract activity in November and December of this year compared to the same months last year. Which leads us to "pending sales" -- the number of homes that are under contract at any given time...  The red line (above) tracks how many homes are pending (under contract) per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As you can see from all the gold arrows, we had been seeing increases in pending sales for most of the months this year... through August, when 2024 fell below 2023... but things have picked back up again significantly in September and October. There are currently 291 homes under contract (pending) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to only 234 a year ago at this time. And how about those inventory levels?  Look at the difference in the trajectory of the blue and red lines above. The blue line shows how inventory levels were steadily rising last year between July and October... in contrast to the red line that shows inventory levels mostly decreasing this year between July and October. Now in November, we see far fewer (163) homes for sale than at the same time last year when 230 homes were listed for sale and not yet under contract. A thread that runs through all of these charts are graphs is change in mortgage interest rates over time which is what we'll examine next...  Lots of arrows on this graph -- sorry, not sorry. A year ago we were seeing mortgage interest rates rise as we progressed from August (6.81%) to November (7.79%). We have seen an overall decline in rates over the past year (7.79% to 6.72%) but over the past month we have actually seen them start to increase a bit, rising from 6.08% at the end of September up to 6.72% at the end of October. Mortgage interest rates significantly impact the cost of housing and have played an oversized role in the the housing market (locally and beyond) over the past few years due to how quickly they have increased. So, if you've made it thus far, thanks for reading and for educating yourself on the state of our local housing market. The general, recent, local, trends I am seeing in our local market include:
If you will be buying or selling a home in the next three to six months, we should talk sooner rather than later about your hopes, goals, dreams and the best timing for your big move. Even if you don't know if you really will buy... or if you really will sell... I'm still happy to connect with you just the same to discuss your possible purchase/sale, to discuss the market, or to discuss life in general. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until we chat next, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving celebration and are able to enjoy bountiful, relaxing, refreshing and fulfilling time with your family, friends and other special people in your life. If you're running in the Rocktown Turkey Trot, I'll see you on Thanksgiving morning in downtown Harrisonburg! :-) Gobble, Gobble! | |
|
|
|
|
Detached Homes Are Proportionally More Prevalent In Rockingham County Than In Virginia |
|
 While we might currently be seeing more new townhouses being built (and bought) than detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, when we look at Rockingham County's housing stock... there is a greater share of detached homes here than there are across Viriginia. Looking at all of Rockingham County's housing stock... 73% of existing homes are detached single family homes. In Virginia, only 61.5% of the housing stock is comprised of detached single family homes. Many of the recently proposed new housing developments in the City and County are for townhouses and/or apartments -- so we might slowly see the figures above shift over time, but for now, we have quite a few more detached homes (proportionally) in our overall housing stock than is seen when looking at the entirety of Virginia. | |
|
|
|
|
More Than Half Of New Home Buyers Are Buying Attached Homes |
|
 Most buyers of new homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are buying attached homes... though just barely. 52% of new home buyers (191) bought attached homes over the past year 48% of new home buyers (178) bought detached homes over the past year Two reasons come to mind as to why we are seeing just as many (or slightly more) buyers buying new attached homes as detached homes... [1] It's what the builders are building. [2] The price point of attached homes is more affordable. Here's how the median sales price of detached and attached homes compare over the past 12 months... Detached Homes = Median Sales Price of $406,250 ($210/SF) Attached Homes = Median Sales Price of $328,955 ($198/SF) Moving forward, I think both of these dynamics (what is being built, price of each) will cause plenty of future buyers of new homes to be buying townhouses. Who knows... within a few years we might be seeing 60% to 70% of new home buyers buying attached homes instead of detached homes. (Attached Homes = townhouses, duplexes, condos) | |
|
|
|
|
Fewer And Fewer Resale, Detached, Homes Selling In City Of Harrisonburg |
|
 Just slicing and dicing the data one more time here... this is looking at only the City of Harrisonburg, only resale homes, and only detached homes -- no duplexes, townhomes or condos. A few things to note... We are seeing a steady decline in the number of these homes selling per year over the past three years. The 2024 column (115) is only through yesterday -- so we'll see that number rise by the end of the year, but it's not likely we will end up seeing another decline in annual, existing, detached City home sales this year. The median sales price of these homes keeps on rising... after a 7% increase in 2022 and 2023, the median sales price increased slightly less (4%) thus far in 2024. As I have mentioned quite a few times, I believe this reduction in the number of buyers buying existing, detached, City homes is a result of a reduction in the number of sellers willing to sell their existing, detached, City homes. | |
|
|
|
|
Competition Is Often Fierce For City Homes! |
|
 We have seen fewer, and fewer, and fewer home sales in the City of Harrisonburg over the past few years. But this is almost entirely an issue of not enough sellers being willing to sell -- not an issue of not enough buyers wanting to buy. The result is that in the current market, when a City home is listed for sale... there is often a LOT of interest in said home. This is great for home sellers in the City of Harrisonburg...
This is not quite as great for home buyers in the City of Harrisonburg...
But alas, the City of Harrisonburg remains a popular place to live. Until and unless we start to see some new construction (for sale) housing in the City of Harrisonburg, we will likely still see lots of competition for City homes when they are offered for sale. | |
|
|
|
|
Contract Activity Increasing, Inventory Levels Decreasing, In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County |
|
 Happy Crisp, Cool, October Wednesday To You! This is a fantastic time of year... one of my favorite times of the year... we'll often have both pleasantly cool and pleasantly warm temperatures in the same day... the leaves are changing colors... I get to have a ton of fun coaching middle school volleyball and watching Emily's volleyball matches... cheering for the Dukes at plenty of JMU football games... not to mention my birthday later this month. ;-) And, let's not forget another October highlight... the Harrisonburg Half Marathon...  "Funny" story... last year, I ran in the Harrisonburg Half Marathon after having been sick for a few days... and only made it through the first 10 miles before worrying all those around me by semi-collapsing. Oops! This year, at least a dozen people shouted out to me as I ran - "hey Scott, don't forget to finish this year!" - real funny guys, real funny. But yes, I did finish this year. Maybe I won't get the same jokes next year? Let's hope. :-) Before we get into the latest trends in our local housing market, each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away a seasonally appropriate $50 gift card to Showalter's Orchard in Timberville. Let this be a reminder to you to go pick some apples, enjoy some apple cider donuts, and get into the Fall season! Click here to enter to win the gift card. And now, on to the real estate data. Charts first, graphs second.  Above you'll find a snapshot of the overall market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, showing... [1] Despite a small (3%) drop in home sales in September (101 down to 98) we have seen an 8% increase in home sales when comparing the first nine months of this year to the first nine months of last year. Home sales are on the rise. [2] The median sales price of those homes that sold in 2024 has been "only" 5% higher than it was a year ago. I say "only" because we have seen multiple years of 10% increases in the median sales price, so this 5% increase is a smaller increase than we have otherwise seen in recent years. Interestingly, we see slightly different trends if we focus in on only detached homes... excluding townhomes, duplexes and condos...  [1] Compared to the market-wise 8% increase in home sales in 2024, we have only seen a 5% increase in detached home sales. We're not seeing the number of detached homes selling bounce back quite as much as we are seeing that in the overall market. [2] The detached home sales market is outperforming the overall market when it comes to sales prices. The median sales price of a detached home has increased 11% (from $350K to $390K) over the past year as compared to the 5% increase seen in the overall market. Thus, you likely won't be surprised to see the opposite trends in the attached home sales report which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos...  When looking just at attached home sales we find... [1] There has been a much larger increase in the number of these sales that are taking place with a 14% year to date increase, compared to the 8% increase in the overall market. [2] The increase in median sales price has been a smidge smaller (4%) than in the overall market (5%) thus far in 2024. Next, let's take a quick peek at one smaller segment of the local market... the City of Harrisonburg...  If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg, you likely won't have that many options. After seeing 335 home sales in the first nine months of 2022, that dropped to 241 sales last year, and has now fallen to 210 home sales this year. These declines in home sales are not a result of fewer buyers wanting to buy -- it is almost entirely (or entirely) a result of fewer sellers being willing to sell -- and little to no new home construction taking place in the City. In contrast, in Rockingham County...  Home sales are booming (+15% YTD) in Rockingham County, due in large part to new home communities springing up almost entirely in the County rather than in the City. While we aren't back to 2022 sales levels, we have seen a solid increase in County home sales activity in 2024 as compared to 2023. Finally, a synopsis of those new home sales that are a significant part of the local housing market in a time when many homeowners do not want to sell their homes...  Two things to note here... [1] While the overall market has seen only an 8% increase in the number of homes selling in the City and County, we have seen a (much larger) 28% increase in the number of new homes selling this year compared to last. [2] Despite a 5% increase in the median sales price of the entire market, we are only seeing a 3% increase in the median sales price of new homes. And again, let's not be too surprised by the opposite indicators in the resale market...  Looking just at resale homes, or existing home sales... [1] There has only been a 1% increase in the number of existing homes selling this year... compared to an 8% increase in the overall market. Thus, that 8% increase in overall home sales is almost entirely due to new homes being built and available for sale. [2] The median sales price of existing homes has risen 7% over the past year, at a slightly higher rate than the overall market where the median sales price has only risen 5%. And now... moving beyond the words, to some graphs...  On the graph above, you can see that the months of May (144), June (128), July (131) and August (113) all out performed the same months last year when it came to the number of home sales that went to closing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But... we saw fewer home sales this September (98) than last September (101) so maybe home sales are slowing down a bit? Hold that theory for a few more graphs and we'll see if it is reinforced by recent contract activity. While we're holding that thought, let's see where nine months of home sales have taken us thus far in 2024...  Home sales are on the rise! We've seen 1,003 home sales in the first nine months of last year, which is solidly above where things stood last year (933) though is still well below the number of home sales we were seeing in 2022. At this point it seems very likely that we will finish out 2024 with more home sales than last year (1,206) but we seem very (very) unlikely to rebound back to the 1,571 home sales seen in 2022. And here are those long term, slow moving, trendlines that are important to monitor over time...  The green line above shows that while the median sales price is still steadily increasing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... the pace at which is increasing is... slowing. After a few years of 10% annual increase in the median sales price, we seem likely to only see a 5% annual increase in 2024. But... as shown by the blue line... home sales are rising again. A few graphs from now you'll see that mortgage interest rates hit their 20+ year high in October 2023, and lo and behold, once those rates started drifting back downward again... home sales started to rise again. Now, contract activity. Remembering back a few graphs, we were wondering if a slight decline in September home sales meant that we would see an overall slower Fall sales season. Per this graph, I'm going to say no...  Two things to note above... [1] July through August contract activity generally fell last year (blue line) while it has been rising this year (red line) indicating we should see stronger home sales over the next few months. [2] Contract activity *really* fell last October and November... likely due to the highest mortgage interest rates in 20+ years. We are not seeing those same high rates this year, so contract activity seems likely to be well exceed last year's figures in October and November. And... a slow rise in contract activity over the past few months has resulted in...  Lower inventory levels! Over the past two months we have seen small but steady declines in the number of homes listed for sale (that are not under contract) as compared to a steady increase between last June and October. We seem unlikely to see a rapid rise in inventory levels this October and November, as last year's increase was likely directly related to 7.5%+ mortgage interest rates that (thankfully) just lasted for a few months. This next (and second to last) graph has become more interesting of late...  The big question... is seasonality back when it comes to "median days on market" in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Over the past two years we have seen this median days on market metric increase in the Fall and Winter and decline in the Spring and Summer. Will we see that happen again as we roll through November, December, January and February? Stay tuned! Finally, we've talked about mortgage interest rates a half dozen times thus far, so let's see what they have been doing...  Mortgage interest rates have been falling for the past five months to a low of 6.08% at the end of September... down from 7.31% a year ago. These lower mortgage interest rates have progressively lowered mortgage payments for actual buyers and would be buyers and has likely brought more buyers back into the market at many price points. And there you have it folks, in summary...
All that said, this is all much more nuanced in any particular segment of the market based on property type, size, age, location, etc. So... If you are thinking about selling your home this Fall, let's dive into the trends for your corner of our local real estate market to determine the best pricing strategy for your home. If you are thinking about buying a home this Fall, go ahead and get pre-approved and let's start looking at new listings of interest as they hit the market, as they likely won't last long. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until next month... enjoy Fall... and may you not forget to finish whatever race you are currently running... literally or figuratively. ;-) | |
|
|
|
|
Contract Activity Continues To Track Slower This Year Than Last In September |
|
 The graph above shows contract activity per month... comparing 2023 (grey line) to 2024 (red line) for each month between April and September. For the first three months (April through June) we were seeing more contracts signed this year than last. For the most recent three months (July through September) we have been seeing fewer contracts signed this year than last. The September data points are projected totals for the month based on contract activity between September 1 and 17 of this year and last year. Will the second half of September surprise us? Will we see an uptick in contract activity? What has been keeping contract activity over the past few months? Will changes in mortgage interest rates over the next few weeks or months impact contract activity? Stay tuned to see how the Fall housing market starts to shape up in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
|
|
|
|
Contract Activity Cools Slightly After Strong Summer Surge in Home Sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
|
 Happy Monday Morning, Friends! We are just six days from the first day of Fall... and it's starting to feel like it! High temperatures are peaking in the 70's instead of the 80's this week... the leaves are starting to change colors... and we're back to having fun watching JMU football games...  My niece, Sofia, just started college at UNC Charlotte, so Luke and I were excited to go down to visit her and to take in the first JMU football game of the season. Here's looking forward to some further fun as the season continues! Go Dukes!!! Before we dive into the real estate data... as one last reminder of summer... I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Sweet Frog. Yes, I know, we can enjoy Sweet Frog all year round, but it's particularly tasty on a warm summer evening. So, if you're a fan of Sweet Frog frozen yogurt (and all the toppings!) click here to enter the gift card. And now, on to the latest in our local real estate market...  Above you'll see a basic overview of the amount of homes that are selling these days, and the prices at which they are selling. A few things to note... # Sales: We saw more home sales this August than last (+9%) and even though we've seen fewer home sales over the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months (-2%) we are seeing an increase (+8%) in the first eight months of 2024 as compared to the same timeframe last year. So... more homes are selling this year than sold last year, and... Prices: In every time horizon I explored above (1M, 3M, 6M, 12M, YTD) I found an increase in the median sales price. I'll focus in on the year to date number, however, where we see a 4% increase in the median sales price when looking at homes selling in the first eight months of this year (median of $342,490) compared to the first eight months of last year (median of $330,000). As we continue, we'll want to see how the performance of different market segments compare to this market wide 4% increase in the median sales price. First up, detached home sales...  Interestingly... [1] Despite an 8% market-wide increase in home sales thus far in 2024... we're only seeing a 4% increase in the number of detached homes that are selling. [2] Despite only a 4% increase in the median sales price in the overall market (detached + attached) we're actually seeing an 11% increase in the median sales price of detached homes in 2024. As we continue through this report, you'll note a variety of charts and graphs that indicate that price growth is slowing to only 4%... but that is the overall market, whereas detached home median sales prices still seem to be climbing more quickly than the overall market. Dialing in now on one specific geographic area... the City of Harrisonburg...  It has been increasingly difficult to find a house to buy in the City of Harrisonburg. As shown above, in the first eight months of 2022 we saw 303 home sales in the City, last year that dropped to 226 sales and this year only 198 sales. To be clear... this is almost entirely a supply side issue - there aren't enough property owners willing to sell their homes, and there isn't much new construction happening in the City these days. Despite that restriction in the market in the City of Harrisonburg, we are still seeing only a 4% increase in the median sales price when comparing the first eight months of this year to the first eight months of last year... and the median sales price in the City of Harrisonburg is still under $300K thus far in 2024. And how about out in Rockingham County? How are things going there?  We are seeing a significant increase (+16%) in the number of homes selling in Rockingham County thus far in 2024 compared to in the same timeframe in 2023. You can't see it from the chart above, but a lot of that increase in the number of homes selling is a result of new homes being built in the County. Median prices, however, continue to rise in Rockingham County at that same 4% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe last year. New home construction... it's on the rise? Yes, indeed, it is...  We've seen 253 new home sales thus far in 2024... which is a 27% increase from the first eight months of 2023... though interesting, it's slightly fewer than we saw two years ago, in 2022. I expect we will continue to see quite a bit of new home construction over the next few years... and we need it... as we continue to see high levels of demand from home buyers. So, if we're seeing a 27% increase in new home sales, how about those existing home sales? Are they also increasing at that pace? Ummm... nope...  In contrast to the 27% increase in new home sales thus far in 2024... we have only seen a 3% increase in existing home sales. Lots and lots of homeowners are just staying put and not selling their homes. Now, let's get to some of the graphs, to get a clearer picture of some of the trends we have been discussing...  August marks the fourth month in a row with more home sales (closed home sales) than during the same month last year. This has been an active summer of real estate closings... though homes often go under contract a month or two before they make it to closing... so this busy summer of real estate closings was the result of a busy late Spring and early Summer of contracts, which we'll see shortly. To put this year in the context of the past two years...  Home sales in 2024 are definitely exceeding 2023 levels... but pale in comparison to 2022. I expect we might see some further upward momentum in home sales later in 2024 if or when we see further relief in mortgage interest rates. More on that later. Here is an illustration of the two overall trends we're seeing right now in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...  First off, at the top, home price growth is slowing. Testing your reading comprehension and short term memory... do you recall that the overall market is seeing only a ___% increase in the median sales price while the detached home segment of the market is seeing an ___% increase in the median sales price? ;-) Overall Market = 4% increase; Detached Homes = 11% increase. And... that second line (the blue one) at the bottom... shows us that aver steady declines from over 1,700 sales a year down to about 1,200 sales a year, we are now seeing some overall increases in the number of homes selling in our market. Back to those detached homes for a moment...  Here's you'll note the *absence* of a flattening out of the median sales price line in green. While the overall market is only seeing a 4% increase in median sales prices in 2024, thus far this year detached homes have been selling at prices that are 11% higher than last year. Earlier I talked about a busy summer of closings which was a result of earlier contract activity. This next graph shows current contract activity, which is a predictor of home sales activity over the next month or two...  On the left side of the graph above you can see quite a few months of much higher contract activity this year (red line) than last year (blue line) -- particularly in March, April and May. But then, contract activity declined in July and August to levels below where we were a year ago. Looking ahead, we will most likely see a similar number of homes going under contract in September as we did in August, before contract activity likely starts to decline even further in October. This recent slow down in contract activity has also shown up in the pending sales metric, which tracks how many homes are under contract at any given point...  After seven months of riding high above 2023 levels, we have now seen pending sales drop below 2023 levels in August. This is mostly a result of slower months of contract activity in July and August. It's certainly possible that we'll see pending sales pop back up again as we work our way through September and October... but the 2023 and 2024 trajectories have crossed as of the end of August. But wait... if pending sales are declining, that must mean inventory is rising?  Sorta kinda. Inventory levels dropped to their lowest levels at the end of June... but rose again in July and remained steady at that point in August. Of note... inventory levels consistently climbed last year between June and October... but that was during the exact same timeframe when mortgage interest rates were climbing to their highest levels in 20 years. I do not expect that we will see inventory levels climb that high in September and October this year. But speaking of climbing... will days on market start to climb soon?  After quite a few years of absurdly, consistently low median days on market, we have seen some variability in this metric over the past two years. That pace at which homes go under contract (days on market) slowed during each of the past fall/winter seasons, so perhaps we'll start seeing that again in 2024. Finally, that one little (or big) number that seems to have been having an oversized impact on the housing market over the past few years... mortgage interest rates...  After peaking at 7.79% last October (the highest level in 20+ years) we have started to see some relief in mortgage interest rates -- particularly over the past three to six months. As of June, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage had fallen below 7%, and now we're closer to 6% than 7%. The Federal Reserve might be announcing a rate cut this Wednesday... though some say that the recent anticipation of that rate cut has already been priced into adjustments in mortgage interest rates. So, let's play a bit of up and down in 2024...
So, as we look ahead at the final three and a half months of the year (yes, that's all that remains) here are a few things to keep in mind... Home Buyers - Many segments of the local market are still rather competitive (multiple offers) but plenty of homes aren't going under contract within two days. Get preapproved now, go see houses quickly when they hit the market, and be prepared to make a rapid, but thoughtful decision about whether to make an offer. Home Sellers - Some, but not all, houses are going under contract quickly. The more broadly appealing your home is to buyers (based on size, location, house features, lot features, etc.) the more quickly we are likely to receive offers. If there are some attributes of your home that disqualify broad segments of the pool of potential buyers, then we are likely to have a longer wait for an offer... and we might have to adjust your list price more than the market data would otherwise suggest in order to inspire a buyer to make an offer. The data and observations I have presented in this market report are a high level overview of our overall market. If you're getting ready to buy or thinking about selling, we should be chatting more specifically about your segment of the market -- what you will be buying, or selling. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. | |
|
|
|
|
Fewer City Home Sales, More County Home Sales In 2024 With Higher Prices All Around |
|
 Happy Thursday morning to you! The summer seems to have flown by, and soon school will be starting for many of us... as parents of K-12 students, as parents of college students, as teachers or administrators at a K-12 school or professors or administrators at a local college or university. If you have a such a transition coming up, I hope you had a full and fun and relaxing summer and are excited for the school year ahead.  Shaena, Luke, Emily and I had a fun and fulfilling summer and soon Luke will be starting his second year of college and Emily will start 11th grade. The years fly by quickly! Before we start looking through the latest trends in our local real estate market, each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Jack Brown's. If you find me at Jack Brown's it will probably be enjoying one of their delicious burgers and some sweet potato fries. Click here to enter to win the gift card. Now then, where were we... ah, yes, the latest housing market data...  The chart above outlines some of the main trends in our local housing market and a few things stand out to me... [1] We have seen strong sales over the past three months as compared to last year, with a 14% year over year increase in the number of home sales taking place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [2] This latest surge over the past three months (+14%) has been pushing back against the 7% decline in sales when we look at the past 12 months of home sales compared to the 12 months before that. [3] When looking just at the current calendar year, we have seen an 8% increase in the number of home sales taking place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2024 compared to 2023. ...and on sales prices... [4] Over the past year the median sales price has increased 6% from $318,480 to $337,500. [5] But when we look just at the current year to date (Jan-Jul) we have only seen a 4% increase in the median sales price compared to the same seven months last year. So, we're seeing more home sales in the first seven months of this year compared to the first seven months of last year... but sales prices seem to be rising a bit more slowly than they had been over the past few years. Sneaking a quick glance at detached single family homes, and then attached homes...  The median sales price of detached homes has increased 11% thus far in 2024 as compared to the same timeframe in 2023... to a median sales price of $388,000. That is to say that half of detached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling for $388K or more and half are selling for $388K or less. And how about those attached homes...  We have only seen a 5% increase in the median sales price of attached homes... which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos. The median sales price of these properties thus far in 2024 is $310,000... which means that half of the attached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling for $310K or more and half are selling for $310K or less. If you're looking to buy a home, the number of opportunities you might have will likely vary depending on if you want to buy in the City or the County. Here's what we're seeing in the City of Harrisonburg...  City home sales (shown above) have declined 17% in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe last year. While 200 homeowners sold their homes last January through July, only 167 homeowners sold this January through July. This is largely a supply side issue... fewer sellers selling... not fewer buyers buying. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...  If you have been hoping to buy a home in Rockingham County, you're in luck, there are many more opportunities to do so than in the City of Harrisonburg. In the first seven months of this year we have seen 17% more home sales in the County than during the same timeframe last year. But... one of the reasons why there are more home sales in the County than in the City is because most new homes currently being built are in the County (not the City) and new home sales are on the rise...  While only 175 new homes sold in the first seven months of 2023... we have seen 227 new home sales during that timeframe this year... which marks a 30% increase in new homes selling in our area. We have not, though, seen a 30% increase in existing homes selling...  We have seen... only a 1% increase in the number of existing homes selling in the first seven months of 2024 as compared to 2023. Looking one year further back on the chart above you'll note that the mid-500-ish home sellers who sold during this timeframe in 2023 and 2024 is well below the 708 existing home sales seen during that timeframe in 2022. Mortgage interest rates being what they are continues to impact how many homeowners are willing to sell their home. And now, some graphs to provide some visual insights into these latest trends...  May, June and July have been busy months for home buyers and sellers this year with a total of 401 home sales... as compared to only 352 in the same three months last year. Looking ahead, we are likely to see fewer home sales taking place in August if we track along last year's trend. These last three months have helped 2024 eek ahead of 2023...  After a significant decline in the number of homes selling in our area (1600-ish down to 1200-ish) between 2022 and 2023 we are now seeing a modest increase in home sales activity in 2024. The 789 home sales thus far in 2024 exceeds the 730 seen last year through the end of July, though it is well below the 943 seen in January through July of 2022. And as we have been seeing for quite a few months now, sales are slowly rising and price increases might be slowing a bit...  The bottom blue line, above, shows the annual pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - measured monthly. Over the past seven months we have been (mostly) seeing this pace of home sales trend upwards. The top green line, above, shows the annualized median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - measured monthly. We are still seeing steady increase in the median sales price, but it is not increasing quite as quickly as it has over the past few years. But of note... the median sales price of *detached* home sales is definitely still steadily increasing...  Market-wide median sales price trends can be affected by how many detached vs. attached homes are selling... or how many new vs. resale homes are selling. While the median sales price in our overall market is trending upwards a bit more slowly than in recent years, the detached median sales price is still *steadily* increasing. Just three years ago the median sales price of a detached home was just below $300K and now we are edging closer and closer to $400K. Lots of circles and arrows on this next graph... focus, folks, focus...  The graph above shows the number of contracts being signed each month. We saw much higher levels of contract activity this March, April and May than we did last March, April and May. Then, contract activity in June was about where it was last June... and July contracts were well below levels seen last July. This likely means that we will see fewer closed sales over the next few months, which is confirmed by the latest pending sales trends...  The number of pending sales (under contract homes) peaked in May 2024 and has been declining ever since. That said, current levels (267 pending sales) are still above where we were a year ago (252 pending sales) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Another quirky metric of late has been inventory levels...  Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale at any given time) were steadily trending now between April and June, and then popped back up again in July 2024. The blue line above shows inventory levels last year and you can see a similar increase between the end of June and the end of July... so the increase this year is not unexpected, but does run counter to the steady decreases we had been seeing over the past few months. This following graph, tracking median days on market, has become much more interesting over the past year and a half...  For quite a few years (see the first third of the graph above) the median sales on market was sticking right around five days, regardless of the time of year. All homes were selling very quickly at all times of year. Now, we seem to be seeing a bit more seasonality in this trend, with median days on market (how quickly homes go under contract after they are listed for sale) trending upwards through the fall and winter and then back downwards in the spring and summer. So, don't be surprised if median days on market starts to rise again over the next few months. And finally, one of the main drivers of buying and selling activity of late...  Those darn, silly, pesky, mortgage interest rates. As mortgage interest rates rise, the cost of a monthly housing payment rises, assuming the same sales price. Over the past few years we have seen steadily rising home prices AND rising mortgage interest rates. When we see higher rates, buyers aren't quite as capable or as interested in buying... and sellers (if they would have to then buy again) aren't quite as interested in selling. If or as or when we see mortgage interest rates start trending downwards, we will likely see more buyers AND sellers enter the market. As noted above, during August, rates have fallen even further than shown on the graph... down to 6.47% and I have seen some buyers locking in as low as 5.99% recently. So, having absorbed all of those insights into the latest trends in our local housing market, what does it all mean for you? If you are thinking about buying a home in the next few months... things might see a smidge more hopeful. Mortgage interest rates are trending down a bit. Inventory levels are trending up a bit. Days on market might trend upwards a touch. Many segments of the market are still moving very quickly and are still very competitive, but not all segments of the market. Depending on what type of property you want to buy, and its location, and its price range -- you might be competing with multiple other buyers within a day of a house being listed for sale -- or you might actually be able to sleep on your decision about whether to make an offer on a new listing. If you are thinking about selling your home in the next few months... it is still relatively likely that it will sell quickly and almost certainly at a very pleasing price... but all property types, locations and price ranges are not performing equally right now. We'll want to dive a bit deeper into the data related to your specific home to devise the best pricing strategy and to give you reasonable expectations as to how quickly your home will sell. If you have questions about buying, selling, the process, the market or anything else, you are more than welcome to reach out anytime. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. All the best to your and your family as this new school year begins... and if you don't have anyone in your life starting a school year, then just get excited about the eventual return of cooler temperatures as we head into the autumn months. :-) | |
|
|
|
|
What Is Median Days On Market Hiding These Days? |
|
 At first glance, homes are going under contract just as quickly this year as last year, as shown by looking the first six months of each of those years... First Half of 2023 Median Days On Market = 6 Days First Half of 2024 Median Days On Market = 7 Days But... # Homes Taking More Than A Month To Go Under Contract... First Half of 2023 = 157 of 610 (26%) First Half of 2024 = 209 of 658 (32%) # Homes Taking More Than Three Months To Go Under Contract... First Half of 2023 = 67 of 610 (11%) First Half of 2024 = 85 of 610 (14%) So... yes, the median days on market statistic is remaining relatively unchanged, but there are certainly more homes this year than last that are taking a big longer to go under contract than sellers might have otherwise thought or hoped. | |
|
|
| Older Posts |
Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Home Search
Housing Market Report
Harrisonburg Townhouses
Walk Through This Home
Investment Properties
Harrisonburg Foreclosures
Property Transfers
New Listings
