1. June 2012 home sales were up 3.7% as compared to last June.
2. YTD home sales were up 5.2% as compared to 2011-YTD.
3. The YTD median sales price is up 4% compared to 2011-YTD.

In not quite as rosy news:

1. The average Days on Market is up 3.8% compared to last year.

One reason for the improvement in the local housing market is that we continue to see declines in the number of homes on the market --- fewer sellers results in a more balanced market.  Not only have inventory levels dropped 17% over the past year, but they have also declined 4% in the past month --- which is not a typical trend for this time of year.

Not only are there fewer sellers in the market, there are also many more buyers in the market.  The annualized pace of home sales (shown above) measures the number of sales in twelve month periods to reduce the impact of month-to-month fluctuations.  As shown above, buyers are currently buying homes at an annualized pace of 813 sales/year -- up 15% from one year ago. 

• March 2012 sales soared (66) to the highest levels in the previous three years.
    
  
• April 2012 sales were slower (73) not setting any new records.
    
  
• May 2012 sales soared (77) to tie for the highest level in the previous three years.
  

• Thus far in June, there have been 46 home sales, compared to 47 in the same time period last year.
   
  
• Thus far in June, 69 properties have gone under contract, compared to 67 in the same time period last year.

Perhaps June will be a predictable month, right on par with last June?

• After peaking at 408 lot sales in 2004, lot sales took a huge plunge down to recent annual sales levels around 60 lots.
   
  
• Median prices also skyrocketed up to $100K, but have settled down in recent years to a median of around $55K.
    
  
• Sales are a bit slower than expected thus far in 2012, with only 17 lot sales in the first five months of the year.

The graph above represents lot sales reflected in the HRAR MLS of less than one acre.  See a clearer version of this graph on Page 18 of this PDF.
  

Read more in my most recent housing market report (click on the cover below)....

1. Home sales rose 13.24% in May 2012 as compared to last May.
2. Year-to-date home sales rose 5.61% as compared to last year.
3. The median sales price rose 18.75% (!) in May 2012 compared to May 2011.
   
4. The YTD median sales price has increased 6.5% in the past year.
   

• Inventory is down 14% from a year ago.
• Buyer activity in May was up 6% from last May.
• Single family homes are seeing an increase in median sales prices.

Click the image below to read the entire June 2012 Market Report....

• A seller would (almost never) accept a contract with a home sale contingency without a kickout clause to allow them to move on to a different buyer that didn't have a home sale contingency.
   
  
• There are only 3 properties in the MLS that are under contract with kickout clauses.

I must say, I was quite surprised to find this to be the case --- I thought perhaps 10% - 20% of contracts might have kickout clauses (and thus home sale contingencies) because plenty of buyers have to sell before buying.

It would seem that most buyers are likely waiting to make offers until they have their own properties under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause) AND/OR most sellers are not accepting offers with home sale contingencies unless the buyers' houses are already under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause).

If you are a buyer, I would certainly suggest the strategy outlined above (and the only one that is apparently working with sellers right now) --- get a contract on your house and THEN make an offer on the property you would like to purchase!

As published yesterday in the Shenandoah Valley Business Journal. 
Scroll beyond the article for two helpful infographics.

Many people believe the assessment of their property istheir home's value.  In actuality, theassessed value of a property is the value assigned to the property by the localassessor's office, for the purpose of determining how much you will pay intaxes. Certainly, the assessed value is intended to be the precise valueof your home – but quite frequently there is a disparity in this assessed valueand market value.  The market value ofyour home is the price at which it would sell in the current market.

Of interest, the City of Harrisonburg real estateassessments are currently a bit more accurate than those in RockinghamCounty.  As can be seen in theinfographic, homes sold during 2011 in the City of Harrisonburg sold for 95.1%of their current assessed value. Breaking it down further, 64% of the homes that sold during 2011 in theCity of Harrisonburg sold at a lower price point than their assessed value.  This is an indication that many City propertyassessments are likely a bit too high. 

In Rockingham County, most property assessments are too low –as 70% of properties that sold in 2011 sold for more than their assessed value– and on average, properties sold for 110% of their assessed value.  Of note, homes in the City of Harrisonburgare re-assessed every year, while homes in Rockingham County are onlyre-assessed every four years.  In thepast, this has resulted in lower than expected assessments in Rockingham Countydue to the infrequent updates to their assessed values.

Given the great variation in assessed values and marketvalues, homeowners should not rely on their tax assessment for an understandingof their property's value.  Furthermore,home buyers should not rely on assessed values to guide them in understandingthe market value of a home that they might purchase.  Both buyers and sellers should strive tounderstand the market value of a particular piece of real estate my analyzingsimilar homes that have recently sold and those currently on the market in agiven neighborhood or price point.

Click on either image below for a printable PDF....

1. April home sales were lower than last April (-8.97%) but that was likely a result of many 2012 buyers committing to properties earlier due to our unseasonably warm winter.
    
   
2. Year-to-date home sales have improved 2% over the same time period during 2011.  We must continue to see increases in the pace of home sales for further strengthening of the local housing market.
     
   
3. Median sales prices have increased 4% when comparing the first four months of 2012 to the first four months of 2011.  The true test will be whether this increase in prices can continue throughout this calendar year.
     
   
4. Average sales prices have also increased (1.3%) when comparing 2012-YTD to 2011-YTD.
    
   
5. The average time it takes to sell a house (229 days) has increased slightly (from 218 days) when comparing 2012-YTD to 2011-YTD.

As another sign of an improving real estate market, inventory levels have dropped 15% over the past year, despite recent seasonal increases.

Long term trends shown above (rolling 12 month calculations for sales pace and price) also indicate that the local housing market is stabilizing (price) and starting to grow (pace).

Also, despite prior warnings of potential increases, mortgage interest rates remain extraordinarily low.

There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand.  Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report.

And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.