Monthly Market Analysis
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Local Home Sales Increase 43% in February 2013 |
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My most recent Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has just been published (download it as a PDF here), and there is plenty of good news to be excited about....  As shown above, home sales increased dramatically in February 2013 to 66 sales for the month. This marks a 43% increase over February 2012, and is the highest month of February home sales in several years.  As shown above, there are plenty of positive indicators in this month's market report....
This surge in home sales is not over yet --- with a 16% increase in February contracts (shown above) we are likely to continue to see increase in home sales in the coming months. ALSO -- buyers are in the market NOW -- if you want to sell your house this spring or summer, we need to start talking soon.
There is lots more inside -- click here to download this 28 page market report as a PDF to learn everything you need to know about the overall Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Even if you read every word of my market report, you may still have some questions about how your current home (or a home you'd like to purchase) fits into the overall market. Call (540-578-0102) or email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) if you'd like to chat about your real estate situation, needs, goals, hopes or dreams. One last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Home Sales, Contracts Strong in January 2013 |
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 The February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report has been published, with these bits of encouraging news about our local housing market. January home sales (47) were up 21% over last January (39).....  January contracts (76) were up 29% over last January (59)....  When it comes to home values, last January was a bit of an anomaly, with much higher than normal median and average values. As such, it's best to look at 12-month indicators, where we will see small downward adjustments in home values....
Amidst higher sales, higher contracts, and slightly lower prices, inventory levels continue to decline....
It is also important to note that interest rates have started to increase (a bit) over the past several months....
As always, learn lots more by downloading the full February 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Year End Report: Home Sales Up 9%, Prices Up 1% |
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 Having closed out 2012, we can say with certainty that the the local housing market has turned the corner, and brighter times are ahead.
Download the January 2013 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report to pore over the details, or read on for highlights....  As shown above, while home sales declined (-29%) in December the year-end figures show an overall 8.8% increase in home sales during 2012. Furthermore, median sales prices increased (+0.57%) between 2011 and 2012.  As shown above, after a brief slow down during November, buyer activity increased again in December --- marking a 26% increase over December 2011.  Inventory levels have dropped again, down 15% over the past year to 572 homes on the market. This is a 27% decline over the past two years, and is definitely helping our local housing market return to a balance between buyers and sellers.  If you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Local Home Sales Up 10%, Prices (Finally!) Stable |
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 NEWS FLASH --- with 11 precincts now reporting (ok, months) we are ready to predict the outcome of this race (ok, housing market) as a convincing win for homeowners. The pace of sales has increased 10% in 2012, and prices have (finally!) stabilized! Download the December 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report to pore over the details, or read on for highlights....  The pace of residential sales is up 10% in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We have been suspecting a strong comeback for 2012 for some time, but with November sales figures added into the mix we are now seeing a 10% increase in year-to-date sales as compared to 2011.  The median sales price threatens to stay at $175,000 eternally. After 20 straight months of hovering between $173K and $177K, I think it is safe to say that the median sales price has stabilized. Each data point above is a 12-month median sales price.  Inventory levels keep dropping. One reason the local housing market is slowly steadying itself is because there are fewer and fewer homes for sale. And no, that's not just the seasonal slow down --- as shown above, inventory levels have declined 17% over the past year. Click on the image below to download the full December 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  If you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Home Sales Surge Forward in October 2012 |
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I just published my monthly Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. Download the full PDF here or read on for some highlights.  Our local housing market continues to slowly and steadily recover:
October 2012 was a fantastic month of home sales, with 74 home sales, compared to only 62 last October. This October, in fact, was the best October in at least 3 years. The remainder of the year (Nov, Dec) should continue to show strong sales figures based on many buyers contracting on homes in October. (download the full report for details)
Inventory levels continue to decline, helping to bring our local housing market close to being in balance. An over-supply of sellers and under-supply of buyers in recent years has caused many of the less-than-exciting market conditions of late. It is a positive sign to see inventory declining steadily over the past 12 and 24 months.
There's lots more inside! Click above (or here) to download my full local housing market report for November 2012. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
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Despite mixed signals in September, local housing market continues to show signs of strength and stability |
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I just published my monthly Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. Download the full PDF here, or read on for some highlights. Despite some confusing and conflicting indicators in September, our local housing market is still stabilizing, and is poised for further growth.  This month particularly, we need to keep the one-month indicators (September) firmly rooted within the context of longer-term trends (YTD)....
 Contracts are up 46% in September 2012 (compared to Sept 2011) but bear in mind that 22 of those contracts were a single buyer purchasing 22 investment properties.  Inventory levels continue to drop in our market, slowly creating a more even balance between buyers and sellers.  Buyers aren't able to negotiate quite as much these days, as shown above. This is another sign of market stabilization.  Looking for more analysis of our local housing market? Download the full PDF of my market report here. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Harrisonburg home sales surge ahead 16% in August 2012 |
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Exciting things are happening in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. Click here to download my monthly market report (28 page PDF), or read on for some highlights.  As shown above, indicators were mostly positive in August....
 Contract activity also surged in August 2012 --- showing a 16% increase over August 2011 --- and a 67% increase over August 2010! This is certainly a good sign for the coming months of closed sales data.  Declining inventory is certainly helping our local housing market head back towards more of a balance between buyers and sellers. The number of homes for sale has decreased by 19% over the past year.  Click on the image above to download my full market report (28 page PDF). Also, here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Home Sales Up 8%, Prices Up 3% in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Seven months into 2012, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market is showing signs of steady improvement in the pace and price of home sales. Click here to download the PDF of my full market report, or read on for highlights.  Most indicators above show signs of a stabilizing local housing market:
July 2012 was quite a month for home sales --- and this year has shown a strong upward May-June-July sales trajectory, not unlike the 2009 sales trajectory.
While the graph above only shows price trends for single family homes (not the overall market) it is encouraging (for sellers, at least) to see a halt to the multi-year decline in home prices in the area.
Among other market trends to improve, the list price to sales price ratio has also started to improve in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This means that sellers are (on average) negotiating less off of their asking prices when selling their homes. This is more welcome news for sellers --- and buyers should take note that their window of maximum negotiating ability might be starting to close.
Record low mortgage interest rates have certainly helped to spur on the local housing market as buyers continue to take advantage of their opportunity to lock in their housing costs for now and the future.
For much more insight and analysis, click on the image above to download my full market report specifically focused on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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Six months into 2012, local housing market shows signs of steady improvement |
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BREAKING NEWS -- six months into 2012, home sales are up, prices are up, inventory is down, and mortgage interest rates are down! All of this spells good news for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market! Click here to download a PDF of the July 2012 report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market, or read on for some highlights.  There were many signs of improvement in the local housing market this month, shown above:
In not quite as rosy news:
One reason for the improvement in the local housing market is that we continue to see declines in the number of homes on the market --- fewer sellers results in a more balanced market. Not only have inventory levels dropped 17% over the past year, but they have also declined 4% in the past month --- which is not a typical trend for this time of year.
Not only are there fewer sellers in the market, there are also many more buyers in the market. The annualized pace of home sales (shown above) measures the number of sales in twelve month periods to reduce the impact of month-to-month fluctuations. As shown above, buyers are currently buying homes at an annualized pace of 813 sales/year -- up 15% from one year ago.
 For much more insight and analysis, click on the image above to download the full 27-page market report specifically focused on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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June 2012 Housing Market Update: Sales Up 6%, Prices Up 7% |
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The Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales market is roaring through 2012 through, likely due to low mortgage interest rates and low local unemployment levels....  There are very promising sales updates across the board:
 A warm February lead to higher than normal March sales, followed by a slower than normal April, finished off most recently by the best May in three years. In other exciting news....
Click the image below to read the entire June 2012 Market Report....
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Harrisonburg, Rockingham County housing market continues to gradually improve with home sales up 2%, prices up 4% |
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Many aspects of the local housing market have improved over the past year, and there are signs that this gradual recovery will continue.  As shown above, most market indicators are positive when looking back at recent real estate activity in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County:
As another sign of an improving real estate market, inventory levels have dropped 15% over the past year, despite recent seasonal increases.
Long term trends shown above (rolling 12 month calculations for sales pace and price) also indicate that the local housing market is stabilizing (price) and starting to grow (pace).
Also, despite prior warnings of potential increases, mortgage interest rates remain extraordinarily low.
There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. | |
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Harrisonburg housing market shows continued signs of improvement in March 2012 |
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales were at a four year high during March 2012, and for the entire first quarter of 2012. Click here to jump to the PDF of the full market report, or keep reading.  March continued the trend of positive indicators in our local housing market:
 March 2012 was a fantastic month for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with 66 home sales closing -- the highest we have seen in the past four years. This sets the year up with a strong base as we move into the remainder of the spring and then summer market.  The pace of home sales certainly varies based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. You'll note that the sale of homes for less than $200,000 increased through June 2010 and then declined for the next 12 months. This phenomenon is almost positively a result of the federal home buyer tax credit that encouraged these sales during 2009 and 2010. Of note, however, this segment of the market (under $200,000) has shown steady increases since June 2011, as has the $200,000 to $300,000 market.  Home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, with the current average rate of 3.99% continuing the five-month streak of staying below 4.0%.  There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Home sales and median prices on the rise in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Good news! With two months of 2012 under our belts, our local housing market is showing signs of continued stability and growth. Click here to jump to the PDF of the full market report, or keep reading.  As shown above, the pace of YTD home sales has increased 8% from 78 home sales (Jan-Feb 2011) to 84 home sales (Jan-Feb 2012). Furthermore, the YTD median sales price has increased 3%, and the average sales price has increased by 4%. After quite a few years of seeing declines in median and average sales prices, this is a welcome change!. The time it takes to sell a home, however, is still on the rise --- showing a 27% YTD increase.  February 2012 was another strong month of buyer activity, with 80 buyers signing contracts to buy homes. This marks a significant 16% increase over last February -- and even comes close to the summer months of 2011.  Remarkably, even now through the beginning of March, there are fewer and fewer homes for buyers to select from in our local market. Inventory levels have dropped 18% over the past year --- from 807 homes down to 665 homes. Typically we start to see an increase at this time of year, but I welcome these lower inventory levels, as it can help our market to continue to stabilize.  After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we have now seen a reversal in this trend over the past eight months as the annualized pace of sales has increased from 706 sales/year to 800 sales/year. This is welcome news, and likely contributes to the relative stability in annualized median sales prices that we have seen over the past four months.  There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Local housing market stable in January 2012 |
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Our local housing market remained relatively stable in January 2012, showing some indicators that we will continue the new trend we saw in 2011. To remind you..... In 2011, after a five year slide (and a 55% drop) in the pace of home sales, our local real estate market showed a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales last year, even though the median sales price declined another 3%. Jump to the PDF of my monthly market report, or keep reading for an overview.  Important trends to note:
Inventory levels continue to decline (as shown above) with a 14% decline over the past year, and an overall 17% over the past two years.
Perhaps one month of data is too small of a data set to draw some conclusions --- otherwise we'd think our market has REALLY recovered, as the median sales price increased 11% when comparing 2011 to January 2012. For a more detailed look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, download my full market report as a PDF. | |
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2011 Summary: Stability is returning to the Harrisonburg, Rockingham County housing market |
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Friends and Colleagues --- Our local housing market has finally done it -- after a five year slide (and a 55% drop) in the pace of home sales, the tide has finally turned in 2011. Our local real estate market showed a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales last year, even though the median sales price declined another 3%. Jump to the PDF of my monthly market report, or keep reading for an overview. Speeding through the finish line....  The local housing market didn't slow down for the close of 2011 -- it poured on the gas to accelerate through the finish line with a strong month of 79 home sales in December. This was the strongest December in at least four years. October and November could have had us worried, with sales in the 50's, but apparently the market was holding back to create an exciting photo finish in December. The Great Reversal....  After five years of seeing fewer and fewer home sales in our local area (from 1669 in 2005 down to 758 in 2010) we finally experienced an increase in buyer activity during 2011 -- with 791 home sales. This marks a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales. The not-quite-as-exciting news, of course, is that the median sales price declined another 2.83% over the past year. But certainly, we needed to see this stability (and now growth) in sales pace before we could reasonably expect to see stability in sales prices. Hello Buyers, Good Bye Sellers....  For the past few years, there have been too many sellers in the market, and too few buyers. 2011, however, has told a different story -- one of returning stability. Not only did home sales increase 4% in 2011, but inventory levels declined 15%. While we still have a ways to go, both of these trends are headed in the direction of increased stability in our local real estate market. We Won't Miss You Mr. Foreclosure....  Foreclosures (and then bank owned homes) have dragged housing markets down across the country. Thankfully, not only did home sales increase this year in our local market (blue bars above), but foreclosures also declined (red bars above). This 17% decline in foreclosures during 2011 shows promise for fewer bank owned homes, and greater market stability in 2012. What else would help? Lower interest rates? Lower unemployment rates?  The stage is set for further stability in our local housing market during 2012 -- mortgage interest rates are at historic lows (below 4%) and our local unemployment rate is at its lowest level in over two years. Looking Forward After a 2005 peak, and a 2010 valley, 2011 brought a long awaited step towards stability in our local housing market as sales began to increase again. The pace of home sales is likely to increase even further in 2012, and we just might start to see some stability in median prices --- if not in 2012, then I would imagine we would certainly see that in 2013. For a more detailed look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, download my full market report as a PDF. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Local housing market shows continued signs of gradual recovery |
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 Click here to download my full market report (27 pages, 7 MB, PDF) or read on for highlights....  November was a relatively positive month for the local housing market:
 A strong surge of buyers in 2011 is leading the charge towards more stability in the local housing market. As shown above, November 2011 was yet another strong month of contracts (76) showing a 27% increase over last November and a startling 77% increase over three Novembers ago.  Inventory levels continue to significantly decline, down 12% from a year ago. Lower inventory levels (fewer sellers) combined with an increase in contracts (more buyers) will eventually lead to greater balance in the local housing market.  Despite the fact that our local housing market's median price has not yet stabilized, it is interesting to note that we have seen a steady improvement in median price per square foot for single family homes over the past year. This is in sharp contrast to the steady decline seen in the four prior years.  The icing on the cake is that mortgage interest rates remain at historically low levels creating amazing opportunities for buyers. At the end of November, the average 30-Year fixed mortgage interest rate was 3.98%.  For an even more in-depth look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, click the image above to download my full market report (27 pages, 7MB, PDF). If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Home sales, contracts increase in October 2011, despite continued slow decline of home values |
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 Click here to download my full market report (27 pages, 7 MB, PDF) or read on for highlights....  October was a relatively positive month for the local housing market:
 A strong sign of strength to come in the local housing market, October 2011 was a great month of buying activity, with 84 buyers committing to buy homes in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County. This marks a 65% increase in buyer activity as compared to October 2010!  Trends are very slow to reveal themselves in annualized sales figures (shown above) because they are an indication of 12-month rolling averages. That said, it seems that it may be a safe bet that home sales and home prices are on the mend when examining the graph above, which has now been showing increases in these long-term indicators for four months.  Some price ranges are recovering more quickly than others. The graph above shows that the price ranges under $300K have been starting to see increases in sales over the past several months. This should eventually roll over into the higher price ranges as buyers move up the price spectrum.  For an even more in-depth look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, click the image above to download my full market report (27 pages, 7MB, PDF). If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Home sales increase 44% in September |
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 Click here to download my full, 27-page report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, or read on for highlights....  The housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County continues to show signs of stabilization and recovery:
 While contracts were down slightly in September (67 compared to 74 last September), contracts year-to-date are up 15%. Yes, that's right, 15% more buyers have committed to buy properties this year as compared to last year -- indicating that we should see continued strength in closed home sales over the next several months.  Helping to balance the housing market, inventory levels have declined 14% over the past year.  After three years of declining sales pace and sales prices, both metrics are now increasing when examined from an annualized basis.  If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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August 2011 shows continued improvements in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market |
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After five years of a declining pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County it appears that the local housing market may finally be stabilizing. The latest market data shows a mix of both positive and negative indicators, but the positive signs that have emerged over the past several months seem to be sticking around. Cut to the chase and download a PDF of my entire market report (PDF) or keep reading for a summary of what you need to know.  A few notes from the summary chart above:
 Strong buyer activity continued through August 2011, with a 43% increase in contracts between August 2010 and August 2011, as well as a 13% increase when comparing January through August of 2010 and 2011. This strong buyer activity will lead to continued strength in the pace of home sales over the next several months. Three things we're excited to see decline:
 Land sales of over an acre are on the rise, both in the pace of sales as well as in the median price per acre. This is a welcome sign for the land market, as sales were quite slow last year. For an even more in-depth look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, click the image below to download my full report as a PDF.  If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Home Sales Increase, Prices Increase, Contracts Increase! |
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Finally, some signs of hope for the local housing market! I just completed my monthly analysis of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited. Download the full market report (PDF, 7MB) or read on for some highlights.  As seen above, July 2011 home sales shot past July 2010 by 48% --- which helped the year-to-date sales pace to come within 6% of last year's pace. Furthermore, we did not see a decline in median sales prices when comparing this July and last July....and....the average sales price INCREASED by 5% comparing July to July.  But it gets better --- the next few months should be rather exciting as well, since July 2011 buyer activity (shown above) exceeded both July 2009 and July 2010 contract levels.  Finally, some good news for local home builders, new home sales may finally be stabilizing, with both the pace and price of new homes looking to stay relatively consistent between 2010 and 2011 (as shown above).  One of the reasons (among many) that we are continuing to see improvement in the local housing market is because mortgage interest rates continue to stay below 5%. As shown above, they have started to increase a bit, but are still at an average of 4.6%.  Click on the image above to download my full Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report for further analysis of our local housing market. As always, I have included both the good news and the bad news -- my hope is that my analysis will empower you to make the best real estate decisions possible. If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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