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The Second Best Way To Know If Your House Will REALLY Sell For THAT Much!?! |
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 Home values have increased QUITE a bit over the past few years. The median sales price this year is 36% higher than it was three years ago in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. That can leave a homeowner wondering... will my house REALLY sell for THAT much!? The best way to know if your house will sell for $____ is to put it on the market for sale and see what type of market response we have over the first few weeks. :-) The second best way to know if your house will sell for $____ is to see how quickly your neighbor's similar house sells and at what price. Very frequently, though not always, we can find a house that is relatively similar to your home that has sold in recent months that can provide concrete guidance on how you might price your home if you were to sell. If you are thinking about selling your home soon, let's start digging into the data now to see if it will REALLY sell for THAT much! ;-) | |
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The Value Of The Smallest House In The Neighborhood |
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 How much should you be willing to pay for the smallest house in a neighborhood? Especially if it is a good bit smaller than all the other houses in the neighborhood? Let's imagine a neighborhood in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County where homes typically sell for $450K - $500K, with an occasional sale above $500K. All of these homes, however, are 3000 SF homes. There might be a 2800 SF homes that sells from time to time, but almost all are at, above, or well above 3000 SF. So -- when a 2300 SF home comes on the market in the neighborhood, how much should you be willing to pay? A seller might say $440K. After all, you have to pay $450K+ to buy any house in this amazing neighborhood, so even if my house is smaller than most, you'll need to pay pretty close to that floor of $450K. A buyer might say $400K. After all, the 2300 SF home is markedly smaller than just about every other home in the neighborhood, so the sales price should be quite a bit lower as well. If a 3000 SF home sells for $450K, I don't want to pay more than $400K for a 2300 SF home. I might say $420K. I think there is merit in both of the perspectives above, and a blending of those two concepts gets us close to what a buyer should be willing to pay. Keep in mind -- it is also possible that a buyer will come along who just LOVES the neighborhood and doesn't need much space at all. This buyer might just be willing to pay closer to that $440K - $450K price, especially if they are a cash buyer, or moving from a more expensive market, etc. | |
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Mortgage Interest Rates Double Within A Single Year |
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 Well, then. A year ago, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate was under 3%. Today, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate is 6.02%. Yikes. Clearly, this affects mortgage payments rather significantly. Now, to create at least a bit of context... [1] Nobody really thought 3% mortgage interest rates were normal or sustainable. They were great, of course, for home buyers... but I don't think anyone really thought they'd stick around for as long as they did. [2] In some ways a buyer's monthly housing costs were held abnormally low by those abnormally low mortgage interest rates. So, while monthly housing costs have increased significantly over the past year given this shift in interest rates... it wasn't really from "normal" to "high" - it was more of from "low" speedily through "normal" and then to "high" today. [3] The last time this average 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate was above six percent was back in 2008. It's been a bit. Will mortgage interest rates continue to rise? Will they hover around six percent? Will they drop back into the five point something range? Stay tuned to find out. In the meantime, some home buyers today are opting for an adjustable rate mortgage instead of a fixed rate mortgage. The average rate for a 5/1 ARM is currently 4.93%. This type of mortgage product will keep that 4.93% rate for five years and then can adjust once per year thereafter. | |
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Help Bring A Free Three-Year Outdoor Live Music Series To Downtown Harrisonburg |
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 Harrisonburg is in the running to win a $90,000 grant to bring a free outdoor music series to downtown Harrisonburg! But... your help is needed! Click here to go vote for Harrisonburg to be the recipient of this grant. Harrisonburg is one of the finalists in this contest and you just need to vote once to help Harrisonburg reach the finish line. Learn about the Levitt Foundation contest here. Vote for Harrisonburg here.
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Another Visual Of A Slightly Slowing Pace Of Home Sales |
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 I usually look at the pace of home sales each month, which shows quite a movement up and down as some months are surprisingly slow and some are surprisingly active. I also usually examine the annual pace of home sales to see how home sales are trending from a long term perspective, though this view of the data is very slow to reveal any shorter term trends. Upon a recommendation from a reader, I have created the graph above that averages the three most recent months of sales in order to smooth out the monthly data but get faster insights into trends than the annual data can provide. Thus... The August 2022 data point is the average of June, July and August home sales. The July 2022 data point is the average of May, June and July home sales. Etc., etc. A few things, then, to point out on the graph above... [0] There are plenty of normal season trends illustrated on this graph. For example, home sales are typically lowest in the first quarter of the year, accelerate through the second and third quarter and then decline in the fourth quarter. This happens most years. [1] The green line (2019) took a nose dive in the second half of the year due to the uncertainty and anxiety of a pandemic sending many people home to work, for school and more. [2] As shown on the yellow line, things were rocking and rolling again by mid 2020 as buyers were snapping up houses as fast as they could because "home" was so important during the pandemic and because of rock bottom interest rates. [3] Looking at the red line (2022) we see that home sales activity was setting new records all the way through June 2022... though that data point is an average of April, May and June. [4] Now that we're into August, we have seen a slight decline in home sales activity as compared to 2021. We are still well above 2020 and 2019 at this point. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of 2022 plays out. It seems unlikely that the market will be as active as it was in the last five months of 2021. | |
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Are Home Prices Rising Because Larger Homes Are Selling? |
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 When you see a 12% increase in the median sales price between 2021 and 2022 you might wonder if it is just a result of larger homes selling this year than last. It's a reasonable question, and a relatively straightforward one to investigate... The graph above shows... BLUE LINE = median sales price of single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County GREEN LINE = median price per square foot of those same single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County If the 12% increase in the median sales price could best be understood as a collective increase in the size of homes being sold, we would see an increase in the median price per square foot that was smaller than 12%. In fact, over the past year, the median price per square foot has increased by 13%, right alongside the median price increasing by 12%. So, this significant increase in sales prices does not seem to be attributable to larger homes selling. | |
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Home Prices Keep Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Despite Slightly Fewer Home Sales |
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 Greetings, and Happy Tuesday morning, friends! Would you believe it if I told you we're 70% of the way through 2022!? It's hard to believe, I know, but indeed, we only have about 30% of the year to go. Would you believe it if I told you I am now old enough to be the dad of an adult!? It's hard to believe, I know, but Luke recently celebrated his 18th birthday. Shaena and I are tremendously proud of the man he is and is becoming and we're excited to see what is in store for him in the coming years. Happy 18th, Luke! :-)  This Month's Featured Home... The upscale rowhouse on the cover of this month's market report is one of the original lakefront rowhouses at Preston Lake, and you can find out more about this beautiful property by visiting 3313PrestonShoreDrive.com. Another of My Favorite Places... Each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places (or things) in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Village Juice & Kitchen, Black Sheep Coffee and the Harrisonburg Half Marathon. This month I'm highlighting the JMU Forbes Center for the Performing Arts which is the premier destination for arts in the Shenandoah Valley with countless top notch musical, dance and theatrical performances each year. Have you been to a show at the Forbes Center? Would you like to? I'm giving away a pair of tickets to what is bound to be a hilarious show at the Forbes Center... "Whose Live Anyway?" featuring current cast members of the Emmy-nominated television show "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" for 90 minutes of hilarious improvised comedy and song. The show is on Friday, September 30 at 8:00 PM. Enter here for a chance to win this pair of tickets. And now, let's take a look at the latest news from our local real estate market...  First off, let's get right to it... we saw significantly fewer home sales this August as compared to last August. We've been in "always more, every month more" mode for so long when it comes to home sales that it might seem jarring to see a 19% drop in August home sales, but it is important to realize that we couldn't necessarily always see more and more home sales forever and ever. We have seen an extraordinarily high amount of home sales activity over the past two years. Those home sales levels may have been inflated beyond the norm, so we may see a downward shift in the number of homes selling per year as we finish out 2022 and enter 2023. This isn't a catastrophe and it does not necessarily mean we will see any adjustments in home values and sales price in this area. In fact, in the "this is not a catastrophe" category, when we move beyond #1 above, where we see a 19% decline in August home sales, we'll also find... [2] The pace of home sales during the first eight months of this year are still slightly (0.65%) ahead of last year during those same eight months. Though, if home sales activity continues to be a bit slower through the rest of 2022, we should expect the annual pace of sales in 2022 to eventually fall behind 2021 levels. [3] The median sales price this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County ($298,950) is 11% higher than it was last year during the same first eight months of the year when it was $269,000. [4] When looking at a full year of data (September through August) we find that there has been a 9% increase in the median sales price over the past year, from $264,900 up to $289,900. [5] Homes are still selling just as fast as last year... with a median "days on market" of five days. So, while the number of homes selling might be slipping a bit compared to last year, prices are still rising, and homes are still selling very quickly. Now, let's break things up a bit by detached homes (green) and attached homes (orange) below...  This chart pull a few things out that provide some helpful comparisons... [1] There have been slightly more detached home sales this year (734) as compared to last year (722) for a total increase of 1.66%. This has been accompanied by a year-to-date increase of 12.59% in the median sales price of those detached homes. [2] There has been a slight decline in the number of attached home sales this year (348) as compared to last year (353) for a total decrease of 1.42%. This has been accompanied by a larger, 12.13%, increase in the median sales price of those attached homes. So... we're seeing a slight uptick in single family home sales and a slight downturn in townhouse / duplex / condo sales... though the median prices of both property types are increasing. Finally, slicing and dicing the data one more time to compare the City and County, here's what we find...  Here's what pops out to me in the chart above, when looking at a full year (Sep - Aug) of data... The pace of home sales has slowed a bit (-3%) in the City (#1) while the pace of County home sales (#2) has increased slightly (+2%). The median sales price has increased by double digits (+11%) in the City (#3) while the median sales price in the County (#4) has increased by a slightly lower amount (8.3%). So, again, lots of home sales at high prices in the City and County... but the pace of sales is slightly more robust in the County, and price increases are slightly higher in the City. Now, the summer that makes you say: Nice! Yikes! Hmmm...  It was a wild summer in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market... JUNE = NICE! We saw an incredible number of home sales in June 2022. The 188 home sales this past June was the highest single month of home sales in many, many years! JULY = YIKES! After sky high home sales in June, we saw the slowest month of July home sales in at least three years. July 2022 home sales weren't drastically lower than the previous few years but it was surprising (yikes!) to go from the "best June in 3+ years" to the "worst July in 3 years." AUGUST = HMMM... Home sales this past month were markedly lower than last August, with a 19% decline from 184 home sales to 149 home sales. But... home sales this August were still higher than in August 2019 and 2020. So... were home sales surprisingly slow this August? Or do they just look slow compared to a surprisingly active month last August? At this point it can be helpful to stack all of those months of home sales on top of eachother to look at things from a broader perspective...  Here you can more clearly see that 2022 year-to-date home sales are barely sticking in the race with 2021. Yes, we have seen slightly more home sales thus far in 2022 than in 2021 (and than in the previous few years) but we're barely ahead now. It seems quite likely that the year-to-date pace of home sales will fall behind as we get through September and October of 2022, especially when we examine contract activity below. So, if you haven't picked up on it yet, it seems the rapid growth in the number of home sales we have been experiencing lately might be starting to... level off...  During the height of Covid (2020-21) we saw an ever-increasing number of home sales on an annual basis, seemingly due in large part to the size and shape of "home" being more important than ever as people were spending more time at home during the pandemic... and because of historically low interest rates. Now, however, many of life's patterns (actually going to work, actually going to school) seem to be returning... and mortgage interest rates (if you haven't heard!?) are quite a bit higher than they were a year ago. So, it seems very unlikely that we will continue to see rapid growth in the annual pace of home sales like we saw between August 2020 and August 2021, and it seems more likely that we will see a leveling off, or even a slight slowdown, in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County each year. All of this, though, is related to the orange line above... the number of homes selling. Quietly, in the background, the median sales price (green line) just keeps on rising, and rising. The unknown, at this point, is whether we will see home prices start to level out at all. Thus far, they are continuing to rise quite rapidly. Speaking of rising prices, here's a graph that will put these price increases in context pretty quickly...  In just four years (2018-2022) the median sales price of a single family home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased by almost $100,000... from $228,000 to $326,500! What a great time to have owned a home... and what a tough time to buy one now if you haven't owned a home for the past few years to be a part of a joyful ride up the roller coaster of home values. Here's another graph that provides further evidence of the likelihood that we will continue to see the market slow down when it comes to the number of homes selling...  I've drawn the arrows above to show where I think things have been going and are going... Top Arrow = slight, slow, decrease in the number of buyers buying Bottom Arrow = slight, slow, increase in the number of sellers selling as it relates to active inventory at any given time So, indeed, the market may be transitioning a bit. A few fewer buyers are buying and a few more sellers are selling. These dynamics are turning our market, ever so slightly, towards a slightly less strong seller's market. But, yes, still a strong seller's market. Several times in this synopsis I have spoken about home sales slowing and referenced that I anticipate a further slowdown in the next few months. Here's why...  The graph above is showing us contract activity per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... counting how many homes go under contract each month. Last summer (the first set of 1, 2, 3) there were 143, 156 and 155 contracts signed for a total of 454 contracts. This summer (the second set of 1, 2, 30) there were 135, 114 and 135 contracts signed for a total of 384 contracts signed. So, indeed, fewer contracts for several months in a row has already started to translate into fewer home sales, and will continue to do so for at least another month or two in the future. With slightly fewer buyers buying are we seeing inventory levels starting to rise? Slightly...  A year ago there were 129 homes on the market for sale at this time... and that has risen, slightly, to 147 homes for sale. So, yes, we are seeing somewhat of an overall increase in the number of homes for sale... but not by that much. And... from a shorter term perspective, inventory levels are currently trending down as they usually do as we move from summer into fall. Finally, one last graph for a bit of AHHHHH and GRRR...  From the end of last summer (Aug 2021) through early 2022 we saw a rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. They rose from less than 3% up to over 5% in only eight months. Ahhhhh!!! Over the past few months, mortgage interest rates have shown they might not get all the way to 6%, but they haven't made their way back down to, or below 5%. Grrr... Comparably higher mortgage interest rates (as compared to the past few years) continue to have an impact on how many buyers are able to, or are willing to, buy a home right now... and it doesn't seem that these higher interest rates will be leaving us as quickly as they showed up. So... in summary... [1] The pace of home sales seem to be slowing, slightly, though 2022 is still ahead of 2021 at this point. [2] Contract activity is slowing, slightly, which means closed sales will also continue to slow. [3] Home prices continue to rise rapidly. [4] Inventory levels are rising, slightly. [5] Mortgage interest rates are still quite high. If you're thinking about buying a home, or selling a home, let's talk about how things are going in your segment of the market as it relates to the price, size, location and age of your home. The first step? Email me or text/call me at 540-578-0102. I'll check in on the market in about a month, but until then, enjoy the slightly shorter, cooler days ahead! | |
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Taylor Spring Detention Basin Under Construction In The Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Authority Area |
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 Homeowners on low lying building lots within the Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Authority Area may soon have some relief when it comes to stormwater issues affecting their property. One of the main stormwater management interventions being put in place by the Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Authority is the construction of the Taylor Spring Detention Basin... and that is well under way! The localized flooding experienced in some parts of some neighborhoods in the stormwater authority area have been a result of water flowing through the area towards Lake Shenandoah... and now (soon) stormwater flowing through the area will be detained in this new (large!) stormwater basin before continuing downstream to Lake Shenandoah. Rockingham County purchased 28.9 acres back in 2020 and the County is now constructing a 6.7 acre detention basin. This basin is not designed to permanently store the water as it is expected to drain within a few days of a rain event. Read much more about this Stormwater Basin project and see many more photos in this update as of about a month ago. | |
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Indeed, Fewer Homes Went Under Contract This Summer Than Last |
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 Indeed, as is shown rather clearly above, fewer buyers signed contracts to buy homes this summer than last. When I'm talking summer, in this instance, I'm referring to June, July and August...
So, about 15% fewer contracts were signed this summer than last. Why? A large part of it is likely the higher mortgage interest rates.
But despite fewer houses going under contract this summer than last...
If mortgage interest rates remain as high as they are now, it is reasonable to assume that home buying activity will continue to be a bit subdued this fall compared to last fall. | |
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Which Comes First? Buying Your Next Home Or Selling Your Current Home? |
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 If you are getting ready to sell your home AND buy a home, it can sometimes be difficult to determine where to start... Do you start by finding a house you want to purchase? Or do you start by listing your home for sale? I would suggest that you start with whichever you anticipate will be the most difficult part of the two step process. If it will be difficult to sell your home (because of price, location, layout, features, age, etc.) and it will be at least slight easier to buy the next one (plenty of viable options are listed for sale) then you are likely best off starting with listing your home for sale. Work to get the more difficult half of the transition underway by getting your current home under contract, and then work on the easier side of the transition. If it will be more difficult to buy the next house (because of the specificity of your housing goals, or because of low inventory levels, etc.) and it will be at least slightly easier to sell your current home (because the property type, location or price are in high demand) then you are likely best off focusing first on finding the home to buy -- and then listing your home for sale. There are plenty of nuances we can discuss further to formulate a plan for attempting to simultaneously sell and buy -- but as a general rule of thumb, you'll be best off to start with the harder half of the transaction. | |
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If You Are Hoping To Negotiate On Price, An Offer On Day One Might Not Make Sense |
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 Ooooh... an exciting new listing just hit the market! It's in the neighborhood where you hope to live, has just the right amount of space, has the garage you've been hoping for, and... oh wait... ugh... the price is a bit higher than you had hoped. This imaginary (but very exciting) new listing is priced at $425,000. You had been hoping to spend no more than $400,000. So, what to do... If you go see the house, and love it even more in person, do you make an offer of $400K on Day 1? Probably not. A home seller is not likely to accept your offer of $400K on Day 1. They will likely wait for other showing to happen, hoping to have another offer to consider... AND... they will let all other buyers who view the home know that they have an offer... and they won't need to clarify that it's only an offer of $400K. So... if you are hoping to negotiate on price, it probably does not make sense to make an offer on that first day... unless you were really willing to pay the full list price if needed. If you wait a few days, or a week, to make an offer... someone else might make an offer, which could then give you the option to make an offer as well... or if nobody else makes an offer, perhaps you will then be able to negotiate on price. | |
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As Time On The Market Increases, Contingencies In Offers Often Increase |
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 Day 1 - If a buyer is interested enough to make on Day 1, and potentially be competing against other highly motivated buyers, there is a good chance they will waive some or many or all contingencies. They might not be proposing a home inspection, a radon test, or an appraisal contingency. Day 7 - If a listing is still available on Day 7, a buyer will likely tentatively feel comfortable proposing some contingencies (home inspection, radon test, appraisal, etc.) but perhaps not all of the above. Day 30 - If a listing is still available on Day 30, a buyer will likely feel comfortable proposing any and all contingencies, including a home inspection, radon test and an appraisal. Home Buyers -- Do you want to wait to make an offer to potentially be in a position to include contingencies that you'd prefer to have as a part of your purchase contract? Even knowing that waiting to make the offer might mean someone else buys the house before you make an offer? | |
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48 Apartments, 26 Townhomes and A Mixed Use Building Proposed For Corner of Boyers Road, Port Republic Road |
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 A new proposal has emerged for developing the 5.7 acre parcel of land at the corner of Port Republic Road and Boyers Road. S&B Ventures, based out of Mount Crawford, is proposing a rezoning to allow for 48 apartments, 26 townhomes and a mixed use building. Here is the proposed layout on the land...  download a larger file here Some commentary from the developer provides some context for this potential new development... "The townhomes along Boyers are all oriented to take advantage of topography, with building "fronts" facing Boyers, and with on-site community green spaces and walkways connecting the community. There will be landscaping designed along Port Road with street trees and other landscaping to buffer parking on the site visually from Boyers." "Some community scale commercial uses are retained directly along the busy Port Road frontage to provide future small business/convenience commercial options to serve local surrounding neighborhoods. There is a multi-use path along the entire length of the Boyers Road frontage, which connects to existing sidewalks on Port Road." The Rockingham County Planning Commission will consider this rezoning request at their meeting on September 6, 2022. | |
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Most Conditions Are More Favorable For Buyers Now Than A Year Ago, Though Not Mortgage Interest Rates |
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 If we ignore mortgage interest rates for a moment (how can we!?) I believe it is accurate to say that home buyers are finding conditions to be more favorable now than a year ago. Here are the main factors making the local real estate market at least a bit more favorable for buyers now compared to a year ago... INVENTORY IS UP - We aren't seeing a massive increase in the number of homes available for sale at any given time, but we are seeing a slow rise in the number of active listings, which gives a buyer slightly more choices at any given time. TIME ON MARKET INCREASING A SMIDGE - It's often hard to back this up with data, but it seems that some new listings are sticking around on the market for a few more days (or even a week - gasp) longer than a year ago. This gives buyers a touch more time to consider whether or not to make an offer. FEWER MULTIPLE OFFER SCENARIOS - Some houses are still seeing multiple offers within the first day or two of being on the market, but quite a few are only seeing one offer. This allows a buyer to think more rationally about the price they are willing to pay, and goes a long way towards curtailing the flurry of escalation clauses causing prices to increase ever higher. INSPECTION CONTINGENCIES ARE OK AGAIN - Some buyers are reintroducing this novel concept of a... home inspection!? What a wonderful world where buyers can spend more than 45 minutes in a house to learn about the house, and even with a trained professional that can give them a much fuller view of the house characteristics and potential deficiencies! APPRAISAL CONTINGENCIES MIGHT MAKE A COMEBACK - We're starting to see appraisal contingencies again on some offers, and why not!? If you're not competing with another offer, why not include an appraisal contingency. It only seems reasonable. So... even if buyers today are finding themselves in what is certainly still a seller's market, the buying environment is indeed marginally better in multiple categories today as compared to a year ago. The two downsides, though, are that mortgage interest rates are MUCH higher now than a year ago, and the price you will pay for any particular house is likely a good bit higher now than a year ago. | |
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Are Home Buyers Walking Away From Contracts In Harrisonburg? |
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 You may have read in recent news headlines that home buyers are cancelling their contracts to buy homes left and right. Here is one such news story... Homebuyers are backing out of more deals as high mortgage rates persist and recession fears linger (CNBC) This would cause plenty of people in our local area whether this is also happening locally. Are home buyers walking away from contracts in Harrisonburg? I'm going to say, anecdotally, a strong NO. That phenomenon does not seem to be happening in any significant way in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Buyers generally seem to know what their mortgage interest rate is going to be before they make an offer (via a conversation with their lender) and are then locking in their interest rate once they are under contract. So, should sellers now wonder if their buyer will really make it to closing or if they might decide to back out of the deal? That does not seem to be a concern a buyer needs to have any more than at other times in the past 10+ years... at least in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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The Strength Of The Local Housing Market Is Likely To Start Varying By Price Range, Location And More! |
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 For the past few years the market has been moving so quickly, with such an excess of buyers in nearly every price range, that just about every house would sell very quickly - regardless of the price range and location. But... as interest rates have been rising over the past six months, there seems to be some variation in how strong different segments of the market are, based on price range, location, property type and more. If you are planning to sell your home this fall we need to look carefully at homes in your particular neighborhood, price range, etc. to see how quickly they are selling... and to compare the prices for which they are selling now compared to three or six months ago. | |
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Just As Many Homes Are Selling Over Asking Price Now As Compared To In 2021 |
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 This statistic might surprise you. It surprised me. Just as many homes are selling over the asking price now (in the past 90 days) as compared to in 2021. And, technically, slightly more are selling over the asking price now as compared to in 2021. Sometimes it seems that the market might be "slowing down" in some ways... with fewer showings and/or fewer offers in the first week of a house being on the market. But then, you see that we're still seeing about half of homes selling for more than the list price and it doesn't seem like things are slowing down at all!?! | |
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Is The Last Item On Your Back To School Shopping List... A House? |
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 Happy first (or second) week of school! It's at this time of year -- over the next few weeks -- that we often see a surge (or mini-surge) of home buying activity. Summer vacation is over, school is starting back up, and some folks will find themselves ready to make a move... buying for the first time, or buying a new home to upsize or downsize. Home sales activity is often topsy-turvy in the summer, affected by everyone's summer plans. Sellers put their houses on the market based on when they are around to prepare it for the market. Buyers go see houses and make offers based on when they are around to do so. But now, people will start settling back into their normal routines, and many may decide this is the time to contract to buy a home. None of this, of course, is based on hard, cold, data... just a general observation I have made over the years. We'll see what the numbers actually show as we move through the next month or two. If you're engaged in school, as a student, a teacher, a parent of a student, or otherwise... may your school year be off to a good start! | |
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Plenty Of Properties Likely Sold Above Appraised Value Over The Past Few Years But Fewer Are Likely To Do So Moving Forward |
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 Home buyer attitude towards appraisals has certainly shifted over the past few years! PRE-COVID... Most buyers would include appraisal contingencies in their offers to reserve the right to have a conversation with the seller about the sales price if the appraised value ended up being lower than the contract price. Most sellers were comfortable with these appraisal contingencies and found them to be reasonable. EARLY COVID... Some buyers started to leave appraisal contingencies out of their offers to compete in multiple offer scenarios. These offers were no longer contingent on the property appraising at or above the contract price. IN THE THICK OF COVID... The market just kept heating up over the past few years, during Covid, and eventually, home buyers almost always found themselves competing with multiple (or many, or multitudes) of other offers. Home buyers started adding in specific language to their offers agreeing to proceed with the purchase so long as the appraised value wasn't any lower than $____ below the sales price, or agreeing to proceed with the purchase regardless of the appraised value. These offers would significantly reduce (or eliminate) the possibility of an appraisal disrupting the home sale. Home buyers were willing to go this route to try to compete to secure a contract on a house... and home sellers were delighted! NOW... Some new listings are still having 5+ offers within a few days, but plenty are only having one or two offers. With fewer competing offers, and with a feeling that the market might be slowing a bit, more home buyers are revisiting the topic of whether to include an appraisal contingency. Some buyers are now including appraisal contingencies in their offers once again. Buyers should likely decide whether to include an appraisal contingency based on whether they are competing with other offers, and based on how much they like a particular property. Some sellers find the return of the appraisal contingency to be quite reasonable. Some sellers think it is a terrible thing, and are insistent that they should be able to sell their home for more than an appraised value. Sellers should likely decide whether to accept an appraisal contingency based on how much interest exists in their home, how many offers they have, how long it has been on the market, etc. A shift in the way that home buyers and sellers see appraisal contingencies is normal as we start to see some early signs that the local housing market might be slowing down from a sprint to a fast run. As with all things housing market related right now, the dynamics described above to not equally apply to all property types, price ranges and locations. :-) | |
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Do Home Prices Rise As Interest Rates Fall, And Fall As Interest Rates Rise? |
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 Q: Do Home Prices Rise As Interest Rates Fall, And Fall As Interest Rates Rise? A: Sometimes In the graph above I tracked the median sales price of single family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past 20 years (blue line) as compared to the average mortgage interest rate (orange line) to try to answer the question above. I then looked for years where there was a significant increase (or decrease) in the median sales price paired with a significant decrease (or increase) in the mortgage interest rate. I found 7 years where this happened... out of 20 years. There were also plenty of years where the two metrics tracked alongside each other in the same direction... prices fell while rates fell... or prices rose while rates rose. So... it does not seem that a decline in rates is likely to necessarily result in higher prices... or that an increase in rates is likely to necessarily result in lower prices. Though, of course, sometimes (not usually) that does happen. The question is asked, of course, in the context of rapidly rising mortgage interest rates. The answer we are all seeking, of course, is whether these higher rates will result in lower sales prices. History does not indicate that will definitely happen, but it is certainly possible given how higher mortgage interest rates affect how much a buyer can pay for a house and how many buyers can qualify to buy any given house. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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