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Who Is Winning In The Local Real Estate Market? |
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 Sellers are winning - rather universally. Every market metric works in their favor, making it a rather enjoyable time to sell.
Buyers are losing - in most categories. Buyers are happy about low rates and low unemployment, but otherwise, all market metrics are working against them. Homeowners are winning - they are indifferent to most market fluctuations - but are glad that home values are increasing. | |
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Why Did So Many Homes Sell In Our Area In 2020? |
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 As shown above, the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive in April 2020 related to COVID, but has taken off since August 2020 and quickly accelerated the market to a pace of almost 1,500 home sales per year. Why is this happening? Here are some of my best guesses... Pre-COVID, most of us likely spent the minority of our waking hours in our homes. We would be at work much of the time. During COVID, many folks find themselves spending 90% or more of their waking hours in their homes. For many people, this made them quickly realize that their home was no longer working for their needs or those of their family. If you're working from home and your kids are learning from home, you suddenly have higher expectations for the space and spaces that your home offers. I suspect this "being at home much more than normal" dynamic caused more people to decide to sell their home and buy a new home during 2020. Mortgage interest rates have been dropping throughout most of 2020, making it an excellent time to buy a home from a monthly mortgage payment perspective. These lower rates likely made it pretty easy for the "my home doesn't work during COVID" buyers to consider upgrading to a new home. There is an extraordinary amount of pent up buyer demand in our area. Perhaps more sellers than usual listed their homes in the second half of the year, most of which were scarfed right up by eager buyers, thus leading to higher than normal home sales. This also seems to have lead to higher sales prices! What do they say? The whole is greater than the sum of its parts? It seems that... more buyers wanting to upgrade to a new home + super low interest rates + pent up buyer demand + quickly rising home prices = a red hot real estate market in 2020! As one other aside, it is also possible that we may have seen more second home purchases in 2020 than in other comparable years. More and more people found they could work from home, or from out of town, and this likely drove at least some number of new buyers of second homes into our market. | |
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As A Home Buyer, You Have Never Had Fewer Options |
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 It's a tough time to be a home buyer. In most locations and price ranges there are VERY FEW homes for sale! As shown above, the number of homes for sale at any given time has drifted lower and lower and lower over the past 13 years to the very lowest point EVER this month with only 107 homes for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This shortage of housing inventory has quite a few impacts...
Moving forward into the spring season, which will eventually happen after another 5 to 10 snow storms...
So, welcome to yet another, stronger, seller's market as we look forward to spring 2021! | |
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How Quickly Are Homes Going Under Contract? |
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 Q: How Quickly Are Homes Going Under Contract? A: Quickly. As you can see above, more homes went under contract in the first 10 days of being listed for sale (808 houses, 54%) than went under contract anytime thereafter. This doesn't necessarily mean that you can or should price your home at a higher and higher price because there is so much buyer interest and so many homes go under contract so quickly. Instead, we should be pricing your home to get plenty of buyer interest right away, and to hopefully have several offers from which to choose to pick the terms that will work best for your selling situation. | |
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Home Sales Up, Prices Up, Inventory Down in January 2021 |
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 Happy Wintry Monday Morning, friends! It looks like it might be a touch above freezing temperatures today, so perhaps some of the lingering snow and ice and will start to melt today. This has been one of the coldest and snowiest and iciest months of January / February that I can remember anytime recently in the Harrisonburg area! As a preview of where we're headed in this overview of the local real estate market:
So, no huge surprises. It seems the 2021 housing market is trying to keep the momentum going from 2020. Read on for a recap of what is happening in our local housing market or:
Now, onto the data and some pretty charts and graphs...  A few observations from the overview data presented above...
Now, I was telling you that January was a bit unusual, even though it was a repeat of last January, right? Let's take a look...  Indeed, the 100 home sales we saw in January 2021 was merely a repeat of January 2020 -- boring! ;-) -- but that is many more home sales than we typically see in January. We usually see 60 to 70 home sales in the month of January. Last year's super strong month of 100 home sales was followed by a super slow month of only 63 home sales in February. Stay tuned to find out whether home sales will again quickly slide downward in February, or will remain strong. Keep reading to see how many people signed contracts in January, which might be at least some indication of what we'll see as far as February sales. Looking for a big picture graph that summarizes what has been happening in our local housing market over the past year? It's this funny looking one...  Starting with the bottom, orange, line -- this is showing the number of home sales per year for each of the past 12+ months. You'll note that the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive last year between April and August, which are usually the strongest months of the year for home sales. But then, home sales took off quickly in the fall and continued to accelerate into winter, leading to huge rebound in the pace of home sales in our area. This seems to mostly be able to be attributed to COVID. There was a lot of uncertainty in the market in March, April, May, etc. which slowed down home sales, but then as people realized that the housing market wasn't falling apart AND they realized that their homes weren't working as well for them when they were in them 95% of the time (thanks, COVID) AND they realized that super low interest rates made it a compelling time to upgrade their home, we saw home sales take off quickly! The top, green line, then is the median sales price. We have been seeing steadily increasing sales prices in our local area for the past few years and those prices kept marching upward quickly in 2020. The annualized median sales price at the end of January 2021 was $246,500 -- a significant increase above a year ago when it was $223,500. So, remember that I mentioned that January contracts might give us an idea of what to expect for February sales? Let's take a look...  It seems January wasn't just a busy month of closings - it was also a busy month for buyers (and sellers) signing contracts to buy (and sell) homes. There were 95 contracts signed in January 2020, and 123 in January 2021! As such, it seems likely that February (and March) will be busy months for closed home sales. What's it like buying a home these days? It can be a bit challenging, and stressful, mostly because of the very (very, very) low inventory levels at any given point...  A year ago, a buyer would have been choosing from 196 homes on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Today, there are only 107 homes on the market for sale!?! This huge (46%) decline in inventory levels means that a buyer doesn't have a whole lot of options at any given moment in time. Now, that's not to say that they don't have options at all -- they do. If we see 1400 home sales over the next 12 months it will be because around 1400 homes will be listed for sale. So, there will be plenty of options of what a buyer might buy -- but if recent market dynamics continue through 2021, most of those new listings will go under contract quickly (median of eight days on the market) which will keep the inventory levels quite low! Finally, those interest rates. Yes, they are still low...  Some part of what fueled the wild real estate market in 2020 was super low mortgage interest rates. As shown above, the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has been below 3% for over six months now. This has kept monthly housing prices affordable for buyers amidst rising prices and has also allowed plenty of folks to refinance and see cost savings on a monthly basis. So there we have it. We're a month (ok, really a month and a half) into 2021 and thus far we're seeing a continuation of the strong local housing market that we saw in 2020. Generally speaking that means it will be pretty fun to be a seller, pretty challenging to be a buyer, and you'll get to experience the full range of emotions of you are selling AND buying! If you are making plans for selling or buying in spring 2021... Sellers - Even though the market is hot, you still need to prepare your home well, price it appropriately based on historical sales data and market it thoroughly and professionally. Buyers - Get prequalified for a mortgage, start stalking new listings, go see them on the first day they hit the market, and get ready to compete in a multiple offer situation. Seller / Buyers - If you need to (or want to) sell in order to buy, this will require a bit more strategery :-) than normal. It can be done, but we need a solid plan in place from the start. If I can be of help to you as you start to think about the possibility of making a move, selling your home, buying a new one, etc. -- just let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you in person, via Zoom, or to chat by phone to help you think and talk through the possibilities. You can reach me at scott@hhtdy.com or via phone/text at 540-578-0102. Enjoy the second half of February, and we'll check in again in early March! | |
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What Could Cause Our Imbalanced Housing Market To Balance Out? |
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 Several of my clients have recently commented on how our local real estate market seems out of balance - with so many more active buyers in the market than there are sellers willing to sell their homes. This dynamic often leads to many buyers making offers on well priced, well prepared, well marketed listings to hit the market in and around Harrisonburg. Sometimes it even leads to buyers offering above (or waaaay above) the list price for homes that they don't want to let slip away. So -- if the market is imbalanced, with sellers having the upper hand, what could help our local market come back into more of a balance? In some ways, it's hard to imagine how we work ourselves out of this imbalance, but here are a few real, imagined or fantastical thoughts...
In the end, there don't seem to be many certain paths forward that would allow for our local housing market to balance out in any significant way. As such, it seems relatively likely that our local housing market will remain strong and at an imbalance that heavily favors sellers. If you're seeing something I'm not - and have predictions for how our local market might balance itself out in the coming year - let me know! | |
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If You Might Sell Your Home and Buy A New One In 2021 You Probably Have These Three Questions |
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 I've talked with several folks over the past few weeks who are thinking about possibly selling their homes this year and it struck me that they all had the same three basic questions. As I have reflected further, I have concluded that these really are the three main questions you should be focusing on if you are considering the sale of your home in 2021...
So, if there have been any conversations floating around your house lately about "maybe we should sell our house and buy a new one" but you have had a hard time figuring out where and how to start thinking about that possible transition, I'll point you to the three questions above. As a starting point for answering those questions, I can pop by your house for a brief meeting to address each of the three areas above...
There are certainly many more questions that you might already have, or that you will have along the way -- but these three questions seem to be the big picture questions that most seller/buyers have when they are considering selling and then buying. Feel free to be in touch if you'd like to schedule a time to meet to discuss these and any other questions. Most folks in this situation don't really know if they will actually sell and buy - which is quite OK. I'm happy to help explore the possibilities with you so you can figure out if a move makes sense for you. | |
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72 Apartments In Six Buildings Proposed in the City of Harrisonburg Adjacent To Planned Mixed Use Development In Rockingham County |
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 A new development, Stoney Ridge, is continuing to take shape near the DMV on Route 11 south in Harrisonburg, The majority of the development would exist in the County but a portion of the development land is in the City. The County portion of the development would include...
The City portion of the development would include...
A few downloads of interest... Harrisonburg City Council will consider the developer's request for the rezoning of the City portion of the development land at their meeting tonight. Planning Commission recommends approving this rezoning. City Council will also be considering a rezoning to allow for 142 apartments proposed for the intersection of Blue Ridge Drive and Country Club Road. Planning Commission recommends denying this rezoning. Update 2/11/2021: Per the 2/11/2021 Daily News Record, City Council approved this rezoning request. | |
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There Seems To Be A Backlog of Home Buyers |
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 If you're a buyer, it's hard to secure a contract on a house these days -- especially under $250K, even under $300K, especially in the City of Harrisonburg. It almost seems like there is a backlog of home buyers all frustrated from not having found something this past fall, or past summer, or past spring -- because homes under $250K or $300K are often seeing 10+ showings and multiple offers in the first two or three days on the market. What is this backlog of buyers causing?
It's a wild and crazy time right now to try to buy a home, at least partly because there is a larger than normal number of buyers frustrated that they haven't been able to buy in the past 6 to 12 months. Perhaps when spring arrives we'll see a rush of newly listed homes which will start to cut into this excess buyer demand? Or perhaps not. Stay tuned! | |
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Should You Sell Your Rental Property Now? |
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 This is not an uncommon train of thought of late...
So, how then should you think about whether to sell your rental property? It is, after all, a very strong sellers market. Some thoughts to consider...
Clearly, these are just some of the factors to consider when evaluating whether to sell your rental property. I'm happy to talk through your particular scenario with you, and we may also want to connect with your financial planner or accountant as well. Feel free to touch base if I can be of help to you as you think through these decisions. | |
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Why Is Unmet Home Buyer Demand So High In Harrisonburg? |
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 Earlier this week I was chatting with some friends and clients who relocated out of Harrisonburg (out of state) nearly a decade ago. They are now looking to move back to Harrisonburg and are accurately observing that our local housing market is at a drastically different point now than it was a decade (+/-) ago when they left. The most pressing issue at hand for them, as soon-to-be buyers in this market, is the extraordinary high level of unmet home buyer demand. And so we pondered aloud why in the world buyer demand is so high in Harrisonburg. Here's my overly condensed thesis...
Put differently, with some make believe numbers, to illustrate the point... 2010 = population of 50,000 2020 = population of 55,000 Increased population = 5,000 5000 newly built housing options between 2010 and 2020:
The problem, then, is that many more than 500 (10%) of the new population want to buy single family detached homes -- but that is not what has been built over the past decade. Further exacerbating the problem is that plenty of the already existing 50,000 population also wants to move up to a single family detached home, putting more and more pressure on that segment of the market. So - the population is increasing and housing options are increasing, but the housing that is being created is not matching what the expanding population desires. Why!? Basically, it's all about profitability as a developer. For all the ways to develop a 10 acre parcel of land, this is a rough approximation of the ranking of their potential profitability...
At this point, most land being developed is not being developed for single family homes because that is not the most profitable way to develop the land. So long as student housing keeps being rented as soon as it is built, and non-student apartments keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses for sale keep being bought before they are built -- it remains relatively unlikely that land in or close to Harrisonburg will be developed for single family homes. I am now accepting recommendations for more cheery perspectives to write about next week. Call. Text. Email. Help! ;-) | |
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What Are You Saying With The List Price Of Your Home? |
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 Let's say buyers, sellers and Realtors in our local market would all agree that a house is worth $275,000. Here are a variety of list prices that a seller might consider...
As you are pricing your home for sale, be intentional about the pricing as it relates to your home's market value so that you are saying the right thing to buyers -- and so that you will hopefully see the results you'd like to see. | |
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All Of The Developments On Boyers Road |
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 Have you heard about that new development on Boyers Road? There are quite a few of them!
Those are all of the major developments I'm aware of along Boyers Road - but who knows what else is to come along this increasingly busy corridor! | |
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Rockingham County Completed (in August 2020) Purchase of 28.878 Acres for Stormwater Management |
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 (view a larger image here) I'm late to the party. Thankfully, someone asked if this land transfer had happened, and when I looked, I was surprised to find that it had taken place! As I have mentioned before, Rockingham County had been considering the purchase of approximately 27 Acres between Barrington and Lakewood for stormwater management purposes. This was the lay of the land back in July 2020...
I'll work on getting an update on any potential plans for a layout for use of the land. But in the meantime, I'll point out that the sale of the land has been completed. The "Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Control Authority" purchased 28.878 acres as shown above back in August 2020 for $1,850,000. I'll save you the math and let you know that it sold for approximately $64K per acre. | |
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Did City Home Prices Really Drop For The First Time Since Spring 2019? |
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 Today's edition of the Daily News Record leads with a story about home prices dropping in the City of Harrisonburg. The headline and much of the article might cause you to misunderstand the bigger picture of what is going on with City home prices. After all, most people would read that and say "oh, City home prices have fallen" when I think most people would come to a different conclusion when examining the actual data and/or if trying to buy a home in the City right now. :-) Let's dig in... The article states that the "median sales price dropped from $214,400 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $205,200 in the fourth quarter of 2020, a difference of 4%" which is from data provided by the Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of Realtors. Here's the problem... The City is sufficiently small such that there aren't many home sales per quarter (only 116 in 2020-Q4) and thus the data can lead you to the wrong conclusions if you are looking at too small of a data set. When looking at just one quarter of data...
Oh my, home prices are falling, right? But let's look to see what happens when you expand the data set to include a longer time period to avoid improper conclusions drawn from smaller data sets...
Are home prices falling? It seems they have actually risen 11% over the past year. The graph above attempts to offer a slightly clearer picture of home prices. It shows the median sales price over a 12 month period for each of the past (10) quarters. You'll note that the median sales price has been steadily increasing over the past several years. Did it tick downward slightly in 2020 Q4? Yes. By $950. Could it decline further as we get through 2021 Q1 and 2021 Q2? Yes, certainly. Anything is possible. Is it accurate to say that City home prices dropped in 2020 Q4? I guess? Technically? But that seems to be focusing in pretty narrowly and missing the larger picture. But you tell me -- what does the data say to you? | |
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Just Off The Mark. The Value Of Looking At Homes A Bit Beyond Your Typical Search Parameters |
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 If you're looking for a four bedroom home, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes with three bedrooms. If you plan to buy a home under $300K, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes priced between $300K and $325K. If you prefer homes built in the past 20 years, it might be worthwhile to view some homes that are 21 - 30 years old. If you know you need 2400 SF, it might be worthwhile to walk through some homes that are 2200 - 2399 SF. If you only want to live 10 minutes from where you work, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes that are 15 minutes from your job. Sometimes buyers draw firm lines around what will and won't work for them. This is fine, but there is definitely value in walking through some homes that are close to but not within those parameters. Here's why...
So -- loosen up your parameters a bit and look at some houses that are close to what you're looking for but not quite right on the money. | |
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When Should I Start Looking For A Home To Buy If My Lease Ends This Summer? |
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 If you have a lease ending this summer and you are thinking about buying a home instead of renewing that lease, you might think you have PLENTY of time before you need to start looking for a home to purchase. You might actually want to start looking for that new home sooner than you think. Let's imagine that your lease ends June 30th. Here's one potential timeline...
A few details worth mentioning...
Finally, one thing that is not noted above is how this might all play out related to your monthly housing payments...
As you can see, above, in this scenario (closing on home purchase on May 31, lease ends June 30) you would not have any months where you would need to both make a rent payment and a mortgage payment. So -- if your lease ends this summer, and you are looking to buy, you might want to get started on the buying side of things sooner rather than later! | |
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Office Building, 77 Apartments and 93,600 SF of Storage Units Proposed Amidst Residential Developments, Church, Rescue Squad and Hospital in Rockingham County |
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 View a larger version of the map here. In what would seem to be a bit of a controversial proposed rezoning, Baum Investments LLC is proposing the rezoning of a 5.69 acre parcel at the corner of Port Republic Road and Boyers Road. The property is currently undeveloped, but Baum Investments would like to develop it to include...
As noted in the headline above, and on the map above, these proposed uses would be amidst residential developments, a church, the rescue squad and the hospital campus. You'll find the rezoning packet here. The County approved an Urban Development Area Plan (UDAP) for this area in late 2019 though it is not clear whether this rezoning request align with the County's vision for the area. The above referenced UDAP shows as example of mixed use and townhomes as a good potential fit for this property. Sometimes "mixed use" means a mix of commercial space and residential space -- but the UDAP document describes "mixed use" as developments that include "public amenities such as event and recreation space and fine dining." So, you tell me -- do the proposed uses (office building, apartments, storage units) fall within the scope of how the County thinks a parcel in this general location should be developed (townhomes, event space, recreation space, fine dining)? Am I reading the County's vision document too narrowly? Should we understand their vision document to mean that any sort of commercial use is fine within areas where they show potential mixed use? The Rockingham County Planning Commission meets on February 2nd to discuss this proposed rezoning. If you have comments about this proposed rezoning, you can contact... Updated 1/27/2021 per input from Bradford Dyjak, Director of Planning, Rockingham County - The UDA plan does offer examples of potential appropriate mixture of uses, and a broader definition of "mixed use" is also contained within the UDA Plan glossary, "Mixed of Uses - combines residential, commercial, civic, recreational and open space uses in a diversified but seamless arrangement; also combines first floor retail with second floor apartments and/or offices." Updated 1/29/2021 - Case #REZ20-333 has been postponed by request of the applicant and will not be heard February 2nd. It will be rescheduled and re-advertised at a later date. Full disclosure -- I live in one of the neighboring residential developments, about a half a mile from this proposed rezoning. | |
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There Are Usually Two Phases Of Looking For A Home |
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 OK - right now - it might really just feel like one phase, but humor me... There are typically (in most markets) two phases of looking for a home to purchase once you have decided that you are going to buy a new home. First -- we'll take a look at all of the homes currently on the market that might fit your ends. Second -- we'll wait for new listings to hit the market that might fit your needs. These days -- there are extremely low inventory levels in many price ranges and market segments, so the first part of the process (looking at current listings) is often a very brief exercise. Most of the homes of interest that have been listed in the past 90 days have already been snatched up with another buyer. As such, don't be surprised if it doesn't take long to go see the houses currently on the market that are a good potential match for you. We're then stuck in that second phase -- waiting. How exciting!? There will (likely) be new listings hitting the market in coming weeks or months that will be a potential match for what you're seeking in a new home, but we'll have to wait around for a homeowner to be ready to list their home for sale. When a local housing market experiences low levels of housing inventory, more of our "looking for a home" time is typically spent waiting rather than looking. What an exciting opportunity to practice patience! ;-) | |
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January Housing Inventory Levels Sink To New Lows |
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 We like somethings to be low - like mortgage interest rates. But inventory levels - it really isn't ideal for them to be this low - except for sellers, I suppose. For each of the past five years, home buyers in our local market have found themselves worse off as far as having options for houses to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Today, buyers are choosing from 117 homes for sale in the entire City and County. Ouch! Just a year ago, that was 195 homes, two years ago 269 homes, oh -- and can you imagine having 500+ homes to choose from such as back in 2016!? Here's hoping for a flurry of homes coming on the market in February and March to help meet the apparently never ending surge of buyer demand! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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