Analysis
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How Is Coronavirus Affecting How Many Buyers Are Buying Homes In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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Is Coronavirus slowing down home buyers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? It seems it may be, somewhat, but it's probably too early to make any definitive conclusions. Based on the graph above...
Here's another graph that shows looks at the cumulative number of home buyers who signed contracts through the entire year in 2018 and 2019, and thus far in 2020... Above, you'll note that 2020 is still ahead of 2018 and 2019 when looking at the sum of January through March -- but that 2020 is drifting back downward towards 2018 and 2019. And, plenty disclaimers...
Anyhoo - lots of data, lots of possible conclusions, lots of caveats, and lots to continue to monitor over time. If you're thinking of buying or selling this Spring, let's chat about what makes sense from a timing perspective given continually changing market dynamics. | |
Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Remain Strong in 2020 Despite Slower February |
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This month's featured home (shown above) is located in Kentshire Estates and you can find out much more about it out by visiting 3241DanburyCourt.com. OK. Now. Let's set the stage... Home sales slowed and prices fell in February 2020. Ahhh! Is the sky falling? Before you lump this news in with the rise of the coronavirus and the decline of the stock market -- remember two things...
So, there we go. Read on to better understand both short and long term trends in our local housing market -- but don't let a few less-than-exciting short term trends make you think our local housing market is (necessarily) experiencing anything as dramatic as what you're hearing about in the (health and economic) news of the week. Moving out from my drawn out intro -- here's the PDF of the entire report -- and let's dive in... Lots to see and think about above...
This next graph could - again - scare you, given the sort of crazy news we're hearing about all day long this week... January 2020 was the strongest January we've ever seen -- and it was followed by one of the slower months of February in recent years. Again, should we panic? That red line is going nearly straight down! Here's my take on it -- any given month can be abnormally strong and any given month can be abnormally weak -- perhaps January was overly strong and February was overly weak. I come to this conclusion by looking at January and February sales combined, and am noting that the 161 sales in these two combined months is much higher than the same two months during the previous three years. So -- this isn't a message of "don't worry about that slow, slow February - everything is going to be just fine - trust me" -- it's more of a message of "the market still seems to be quite strong despite a slightly odd (slow) February." And now, we might be done with the nail biting portions of this monthly update on our local housing market, because most of the remainder of these graphs focus on the big picture and the long term trends... As shown above, buyers have been steadily buying homes at a slightly (just slightly) faster pace for each of the past few years -- but they have been choosing from a smaller and smaller pool of homes for sale at any given time. This has created a strong "seller's market" where many homes are seeing a flurry of showings when they first come on the market and sometimes are seeing multiple offers. I don't usually include the graph above in this monthly re-cap, but I thought it was helpful this month. The median sales price has declined slightly between 2019 and 2020 (looking only at January and February 2020, of course) but you will note that the median price per square foot has increased during that same timeframe. This is a good indicator that the downward shift in sales prices is likely a change in what is happening to sell, more so than a change in home values. If more smaller homes are selling thus far in 2020 (as compared to all of 2019) then the median sales price would decline while the median price per square foot increases. Another important distinction to make when thinking about short term market trends -- changes in the pace of closed sales are not a good measure of current buyer behavior, they just show how many buyers were (or were not) signing contracts 30 to 60 days ago. So, the fact that there have been 204 contracts signed this January and February -- compared to only 176 last January and February -- is likely a good indicator that we will see (closed) home sales bounce back up again in March and April. One of the main story lines of the past few years has been fewer and fewer choices for buyers in the market -- and this has continued into 2020. The number of homes on the market at any given time continues to fall -- and has now been (slightly) below 200 for three months in a row. This makes it a thrilling time to sell (many showings, sometimes multiple offers) but makes it a nerve-racking, frustrating time to (try to) buy a home. OK -- if there is one trend in this report that is definitely and 100%, completely, and fully related to the coronavirus, this (above) is the one. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage on March 3 to try to combat any adverse economic effects of the coronavirus. That March 3rd rate cut isn't shown above, since my graph only goes through the end of February, but it caused the already low average rate of 3.45% to dip even lower, down to the current level of 3.29%, which is the lowest average mortgage rate that we have ever seen for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. OK, alright, we made our way through the data for the month. There is much more, of course, in the full PDF of my market report. As we continue to learn more about the coronavirus I hope that you and your family and friends remain well. I don't expect that we'll see drastic ramifications of the coronavirus on our local real estate market because I believe people will still need housing, and people will still have jobs - but we will all have to closely monitor how things develop from here. My advice from last month still applies... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat SOON about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we'll want to start by analyzing your segment of the market. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
Highest Pace Of Home Sales In Almost 13 Years |
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One more bit of context for you to digest as we start off the week -- at the end of January 2020 we hit an annual pace of 1,352 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. That is the highest number of sales in a year that we have seen in almost 13 years! We have to go way back to 2007 to find a higher annual pace of home sales. For additional insights into the current (red hot) local housing market, feel free to check out my full market report and commentary here. | |
Just How Unusual Was The Pace of Home Sales In January 2020? |
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Particularly unusual, I'd say. Looking back 17 years, the highest number of home sales we had ever seen in January was 79 home sales -- but this January (last month) there were 97 home sales! What a month! Stay tuned to see if we'll have another high octane month of sales in February. In the meantime, feel free to check out my full market report and commentary here. | |
Home Sales Soar To Surprising New Heights in January 2020 |
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Time seems to be passing quickly these days, perhaps because my two kids are growing up faster than I can believe - age 15 (also known as "almost driving") and 11 (but 12 next month!). In the vein of time passing quickly, I was surprised to realize this week that the year is essentially 1/8th of the way over now!? How does the time slip by so quickly? Well, if you blinked, and missed January - you missed a LOT of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We'll get to that soon (keep reading) but first I'll point you to a few quick links... OK - now back to the business at hand - breaking down the latest trends in our local housing market. First, some of the basics... As shown above...
If we then dive into detached (single family homes) and attached (townhouses, duplexes and condos) we find relatively similar trends... In the breakdown above, you might note that...
And now, the visual of what we'll call a crazy January... If there was one thing it seemed we could count on, it was that we'd see between 60 and 70 home sales in January. That's what we've seen for the past three years - and looking back even further (2010-2016) we find even lower months of January sales - 47, 40, 41, 49, 56, 49, 67. But not this year. This year started off with a BANG with a shockingly high 97 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Could this be an anomaly? Will February sales be miserably slow, bringing a January/February average to more normal levels? Maybe. Will every other month this year fall back in line with normal historical trends? Maybe. Or -- will this year be unlike any prior with much higher sales than expected, all year long? Maybe. Stay tuned to see how things shape up after this blockbuster month of sales in January. And look what this crazy January contributed towards... The data above looks at 12 months of data at a time - month after month - to see long term trends. These long term trends have now pushed us to the point of having 3+ year highs in both categories shown - the pace of sales and the price of sales. The median sales price of $223,500 is higher than it has been in many more than three years. Likewise, the annual pace of 1,352 home sales is higher than it has been in over three years. So, it's a wild time right now in the local housing market with steady growth in sales prices and stable but strong numbers of home sales. Circling back to the prior question - will home sales taper off in February? I'm going to lean towards "no" -- given that 95 contracts were signed in January -- many of which will result in February home sales. As an aside - I have been tracking "under contract" data since 2008 -- and there has never been a January with quite so many contracts signed as we saw this January. So, maybe February will be a relatively strong month for home sales as well? And these increases, while one major metric keeps decreasing... Indeed, despite increasing sales, the number of homes on the market at any given time keeps declining. We've seen a 27% year-over-year decline in the number of active listings on the market. So, how do more homes sell if fewer homes are on the market? It seems that plenty of homes are coming on the market for buyers to buy - but because buyers are contracting to buy them so quickly these new listing aren't staying on the market long enough to allow inventory levels to see an effective increase. Speaking of buyers contracting to buy homes quickly... More than half (58%) of homes that have sold in the past year were under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. Homes are, indeed, selling quickly. The median "days on market" currently stands at 18 days. A nice time to be a home seller if you're hoping not to have a prolonged period of time having buyers coming to view your house. Depending on your home's price, condition, layout, location, it may very well go under contract quickly! And today's buyers are paying lower mortgage interest rates than we've seen in a while... The average mortgage interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has now dropped to 3.51% - the lowest rate seen in over three years. Buyers who are currently buying a home are fixing in lower monthly payments than they would have seen with any recent mortgage interest rate - though that is offset somewhat by the increases in median sales prices over the past few years. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. But until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat SOON about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we'll want to start by analyzing your segment of the market. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- get ready to compete with lots of other buyers in a low inventory housing market. To assist you, sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as soon as they come on the market! As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
City Townhouses Are Selling QUICKLY! |
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Townhouses in the City of Harrisonburg are selling QUICKLY! The "Days On Market" referenced above is the number of days between when a property is listed for sale and when it goes under contract. Just three years ago, the median days on market was 24 days - which means that half of the townhouses that sold went under contract in fewer than 24 days, and half took longer than 24 days. But now, the median days on market has dropped down to just FIVE days in 2020. Oftentimes, sellers of townhouses who want to buy a single family home are worried that they won't be able to sell their townhouse quickly enough to then make an offer on the house they want to purchase - this should be at least somewhat less of a concern now given the speed at which townhouses are going under contract! | |
Home Sales Rise In County, Fall In City |
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Home sales rose 8% in Rockingham County last year -- from 847 sales in 2018 up to 917 sales in 2019. This is the highest number of home sales we have seen in Rockingham County in at least the past six years. But in the City, it was a different story. Home sales declined 12% in the City of Harrisonburg in 2019, from 459 sales in 2018 down to only 403 sales in 2019. This is higher than some recent years, but the lowest number of homes ales in the past four years. A few more notes...
There are any number of factors that affect whether buyers end up buying in the City or County, including what type of property they are seeking, how much land they desires, school systems, employer locations, and much more. | |
Monthly Housing Cost for Median Priced Home Climbs Further in 2019 |
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As should come as no surprise, the monthly cost of housing is increasing -- and has been increasing more quickly over the past several years (2018, 2019) as compared to many prior years. The graph above devises a monthly cost of housing using the median sales price of homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County and the mortgage interest rate at the time. The payments above assume that a buyer finances 80% of the purchase price at the prevailing rate -- and these housing costs include an estimate of real estate taxes and homeowners insurance. Of interest -- this monthly cost...
Over the next few years, it seems likely we will see a continuation of this trend, as sales prices and mortgage interest rates are both likely to continue to increase. | |
Lower Priced Market Segments See Largest Swings In Housing Inventory |
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Not all price ranges are created equally, it seems. The hardest hit price range, perhaps unsurprisingly, is the under $200K price range -- where we have seen a 57% decline in the number of homes for sale over the past two years. Of note -- part of the problem here is increasing home values -- which prices some homes out of the "under $200K" price range. Regardless, though, buyers looking to stay under $200K for their home purchase are having an ever more difficult time doing so. The $200K - $300K market also had a sizable (26%) decline in the number of homes actively listed for sale as compared to two years ago. Both the $300K - $400K and the $400K+ price ranges only saw slight (-5%, -7%) declines in inventory levels - so not a marked difference from where inventory levels were two years ago.. | |
20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Median Home Sales Price |
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Here's a really long look back at the median sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see another solid increase in the median sales price in 2020 and likely over the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Home Sales |
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Here's a really long look back at the number of homes that sell each year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see 1,300+ home sales per year for the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
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Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market... [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper... [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find... ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months... As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement... We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future... Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap... Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory... The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find... The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
When Will Home Buying Activity Ramp Up in 2020? |
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It should be no surprise that buying activity (contracts being signed) slows down over the Winter. As shown above -- an average of 79 buyers sign contracts in January, which then increases a bit, to 90, in February, and then makes a much larger jump in March to an average of 133/month. So, we're going to say the MARCH is when we first seem a big jump in buyer activity. For that reason, many sellers wait until March (or even April) to put their homes on the market -- though the Spring market brings more competition from other sellers in addition to meaning that we'll start to see more buyers. I have also read several articles (locally, regionally and nationally) talking about how this year the "Spring housing market" is taking off just after Christmas instead of in March like in past years. Let's take a look... Contracts Signed Between December 26 and January 8...
So, over the past three years, there have been an average of 26 contracts between during the two weeks after Christmas. And how about this year?
So, this year is actually starting off just about the same as we've seen for the past three years. The Spring market isn't quite here yet despite what you might read. :-) | |
My Predictions for the 2020 Real Estate Market |
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As is my annual tradition, I am making some predictions about what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market in 2020. Above, you'll note that there was only a 1% increase in home sales between 2018 and 2019 -- and I am predicting a 2% increase between 2019 and 2020. A few thoughts along those lines...
So -- I'm betting on another increase, albeit a small increase, in the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020. And how about those prices... As shown above, we saw a 7% increase in the median sales price in 2018, followed by a 5% increase in 2019! I am -- perhaps too boldly (?) -- predicting we'll see another 5% increase in the median sales price this year. If I'm wrong on either prediction, perhaps it will be this one -- perhaps we'll start to see prices rising, but not quite as fast as they have over the past two years. The chances seem relatively low that we'd see an actual decline in the median sales price in 2020. OK - enough about my predictions --what about for you? Email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and let me know where you think our local market will go in 2020. And keep up with all the market data between now and next January by signing up to receive my monthly housing market report by email if you are not already receiving it. | |
Comparing My 2019 Housing Market Predictions To Reality |
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As shown above, I was slightly (just slightly) too optimistic about the pace of home sales that we would see in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2019. I was predicting that we'd see a 2.2% increase to 1,325 home sales -- and we only saw a 1.6% increase to 1,317 home sales. So -- pretty close -- we did see a slight increase in the pace of home sales, and it was less than the 3% that we saw in 2018. Just as I observed last year -- even though we had low inventory levels all year long, buyers still found homes to buy -- which created a slight increase in the pace of sales, and a further decline in "days on market" in 2019. If I was ever-so-slightly too bold in my prediction as to the pace of home sales, I was too conservative in my prediction as to the change in median sales price we'd see during 2019. I was predicting we'd see a 2.4% increase to a median sales price of $217,000 -- and we actually saw a 5.7% increase to a median sales price of $224,000 in 2019. This is similar to the 6.9% increase that we saw in 2018. So, we did see a smaller increase (5.7% is smaller than 6.9%) during 2019 than we saw in 2018 -- but it was still a larger increase than has been seen in most recent years. Stay tuned for some predictions for 2020 in the coming days! | |
Home Sales Rise Around One Percent In 2019 |
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All home sales have not yet been reported but it is seems that we will see around a 1% increase in the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between 2018 and 2019. There have been 1,317 home sales recorded in the MLS thus far for last year and we may see that figure rise a bit more over the next few days, but not by much. This is a slight increase compared to last year -- and marks the highest year in recent memory...
Stay tuned for my full market report in the next week or so, as well as predictions for the 2020 housing market. Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR! | |
Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019 |
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Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data... As shown above...
Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes... As shown above...
It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County... As shown above...
But in the County... As shown above...
And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity... I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December. When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016. When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data. Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom. Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated. While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year. Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction?? Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties! If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. | |
Housing Inventory Levels Plummet in December |
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First - a note - each data point above is for the end of the given month. Thus, the 235 homes for sale in November are at the end of November -- or, as the case may be, the very beginning of December. Now, there are a few disclaimers I could make about the above data...
Regardless of the reason or explanation, though, the current inventory levels are SUPER low! Which is terribly frustrating for buyers -- and a great opportunity for any home owner who does need to sell right now. You are not likely to have much competition from other sellers! Stay tuned later in the month when I compile my full monthly report and we'll see if inventory levels perked back up as we made our way further into December. | |
Home Sales Steady, Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Despite rapidly declining temperatures (15 degrees last night!?) the local housing market is still rather hot! Read on for an overview of the latest market trends in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, or download a PDF of the full report here. But first, check out this new listing at The Glen at Cross Keys, pictured above, by visiting 285CallawayCircle.com. OK, now, diving into some data... Several things to note above, as we can now look at 10 out of 12 months of 2019...
Now, looking at the detached sales trends vs. attached trends, we see similar but slightly different trends... Above, you might note that...
Next, let's pause for a moment to evaluate sales in the City vs. the County... As you'll see above...
Now, for the roller coaster of the month-by-month activity... As shown above, October home sales in 2019 were certainly stronger than we saw in 2016 and 2017 -- but not as strong as last year. That said, home sales then slowed down quite a bit (!!) last November, so perhaps we'll see a stronger performance this November? I'm guessing we'll see 90 to 100 home sales in November 2019. How do these monthly home sales stack up towards annual sales? The graph above breaks it down -- and we're moving at the fastest pace this year (1,130 sales in 10 months) that we've seen anytime in recent years. We seem to be on track to eclipse 1300 home sales again in 2019 - just as we did (barely) last year. We can often get the best sense of long term trends by looking at a rolling 12 months of data, as shown above. Here we see that growth in the median sales price has been relatively slow over the past year (compared to a faster increase last year) and the pace of homes selling has remained relatively stable over the past year. Looking back a few more years, it is clear that median sales prices (and home values) have been increasing steadily for quite a few years now -- ever since 2011 per this data set. But, the increases per year are smaller (1%, 2%, 2%, 4%, 4%, 3%, 7%, 4%) than during the last real estate boom when we had three years of double digit (17%, 14%, 14%) increases in the median sales price. So, perhaps this increase in home prices is more sustainable than the last time we saw steady increases over time. Back to temperature and seasonality - even though the annual pace of buyer activity is up, right now contract activity is starting to decline. The strongest months of buyer activity are typically in the Spring and Summer. We have started to see the usual slow down this Fall and will likely see continued declines in monthly contract activity as we move through November, December and January. Somewhat curiously, despite the seasonality of buyer activity -- the inventory levels have stayed relatively steady for the past year -- or at least the last 10 months. We did not see the usual increase in inventory levels in the Spring and Summer this year -- perhaps because buyers were poised and ready and snapped up the new listings as soon as they hit the market. Thus, we may not see much of a decline in inventory levels over the next few months either. Ah, yes, the buyers DID snap up the listings quickly! In fact, over the past 12 months, 57% of homes that sold were under contract in less than 30 days -- and the median days on market was only 19 days! Breaking out of the "house" mold for a moment -- look at lot sales this year It seems we'll likely see a similar number of lots of less than an acre selling this year (around 80) but the median sales price has increased quite a bit over any recent past year!? If you're looking for a sign of relative health in the local housing market -- look no further than the declining foreclosure rate in this area. As shown above, we have seen fewer (and fewer) foreclosures over the past eight years as more and more homes have sold. And finally, if you're buying now or soon, you'll likely still be locking in a fixed mortgage interest rate below 4%. The average mortgage rate has risen a bit over the past two months, but we're still seeing absurdly low mortgage interest rates for folks buying principal residences. OK -- that's it for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the Winter -- let's chat sooner than later about timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. May we find warmer days ahead! :-) | |
Inventory Levels Seem Unable To Drop Below 250 |
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It's been the story for quite a few years now (at least 10 years, it seems) that inventory levels are dropping -- buyers have fewer and fewer homes from which to choose when they are looking to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here are how many homes have been on the market in October for the past 10 years...
So, it's certainly a more challenging time to be a buyer than anytime in the past 10 years -- but inventory levels seem to now be bottoming out around 275. Here's what the past six months have looked like...
So, over the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if we never dipped lower than 250 and we never rose above 300. Given these limited inventory levels, it is more important than ever that buyers in today's market are ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Buyers can make it a bit easier on themselves by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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