• January = best recent January (by far)
• February = worst recent February
  
• March = best recent March
• April = worst recent April

• We should likely not underestimate the impact of lower inventory levels.  Some sellers are waiting to put their houses on the market, which is not giving would-be buyers as many homes to buy.
   
• This 7% decline in contract activity is only a 5% decline when comparing 2020 to 2018.  Thus, this year is slower than normal, but last year might have been more active than normal.
   
• There were more contract in 2020 all the way through mid-April-ish, so this downward trend in buyer activity has largely all taken place over the past 30 to 35 days.

• At the start of March, this year's home buying activity was at a record pace - easily eclipsing each of the past two years.
   
• By mid-April, this year's trajectory of home buying activity had slowed down below last year's pace of buying activity.
   
  
• By early May (now) this year's trajectory of home buying activity had slowed down beyond the pace of contract activity seen in 2018.
  

1. The other home was, indeed, just "a few streets over" but that also put it on the edge of the neighborhood, on a busy road, with a front yard that parents wouldn't let their children plan in for fear of them running into the road where cars often travel past at 45 miles an hour. 
    
   
2. The other home was, indeed, larger -- but the entire house needed to be updated, as it had wallpaper, a dated kitchen, dated flooring, etc.
     
   
3. The other home had a basement one-car garage instead of a main level two-car garage. 
   

Furthermore, aside from all of these differences in the two houses --- the other ($350K) house is not available any longer --- and there aren't three other houses just like it that the buyer can decide to buy. 

In this case, by focusing on this one not-actually-that-similar sale, the buyer has put themselves in a situation where they might miss out on purchasing a great home because of how they are viewing the market based on one comparable sale.

THE SELLER'S STATED PERSPECTIVE

I am confident that I can sell my house for $350K.  After all, my friend owned a very similar house and he just sold it in a week, with multiple offers, for $360K!

THE LARGER CONTEXT

Just a few items...

1. Your friend's house was in a highly desirable neighborhood within walking distance to downtown Harrisonburg -- while your home is on a busy road and has train tracks directly behind it.
    
   
2. Three homes nearly identical to your home, on your street, even facing the same direction as your home, built within two years of your home, updated at the same time as your home, sold in the past three months for $320K, $325K and $330K.
    
3. You have lived a busy life over the past few years, with work, family, and other commitments and you haven't had a chance to tackle the many small maintenance and upkeep items that a home often requires.  Your friend is a retired general contractor and has spent all of his free time over the past two years fixing, replacing, and improving countless aspects of his home's interior, exterior and grounds. 
   

Again, by focusing on this one not-actually-that-similar sale, the seller has put themselves in a situation where they might miss out on selling their home because of how they are viewing the market based on one comparable sale.

The Main Takeaway

As a buyer or as a seller -- don't focus on just one comparable sale when deciding on a reasonable price to pay or to ask -- look for the larger context!

• 426 buyers signed contracts between 1/1/2019 and 4/23/2019.
   
• 414 buyers signed contracts between 1/1/2020 and 4/23/2020.

1. The graph is based on data of when buyers sign contracts, not when they close on their purchase.  So this is as real time of data as we can get.
    
2. If a buyer contracts to buy a house and then that deal falls apart such that the property is actively for sale again, that (now non-existent) contract is not counted in the data above.

• Should I List My House For Sale Now?
   
• Should I Buy A Home Now?
  

1. Home sales were quite strong in March 2020 -- with 105 closed sales, which was a 15% increase over last March.
    
2. The first quarter of home sales also was quite a bit stronger than last year's first quarter.  We saw 267 home sales in the first quarter of 2020 which is a 20% increase over the first quarter of 2019.
    
3. The median sales price in the first quarter of 2020 was $225,000 which is nearly 5% higher than a year prior.
    
4. When looking at a full year of data, the median sales price is even higher -- $227,000 -- which is 6% higher than just one year ago.
    
5. Homes sold quite a bit faster in the first quarter of 2020 than in the first quarter of 2019.  The median "days on market" was only 21 days in 2020-Q1 as compared to 39 days in 2019-Q1.

• Yes, Houses Are Still Being Listed For Sale
   
  
• 2020 Home Buying Activity Might Be Starting To Slow Slightly But Still Ahead of 2018, 2019
  

1. Things magically get better in the next few weeks and most folks are back to work by May 1, and we're not all spending 95% of our time at home.
    
2. We're mostly staying at home and working from home until June 10, as per the governor's current executive order.
    
3. This stretches on much longer and we're all staying at home and working from home through August 31.
   

1. The graph is based on data of when buyers sign contracts, not when they close on their purchase.  So this is as real time of data as we can get.
    
2. If a buyer contracts to buy a house and then that deal falls apart such that the property is actively for sale again, that (now non-existent) contract is not counted in the data above.

1. More buyers signed contracts in January 2020 than in either of the past two months of January.
    
2. More buyers signed contracts in February 2020 than in either of the past two months of February.
    
3. We usually (based on 2018 and 2019 data) see around 131 buyers sign contracts in March -- but only 117 buyers signed contracts this past March.  That is an 11% decline in buyer activity. 
   

1. It's possible that I have slightly under-reported March 2020 home buying activity, as some properties that went under contract in March might not be marked as such in the MLS yet. 
    
2. It's possible that some of the properties currently under contract won't go to closing based on buyers having financing issues related to Coronavirus, such that the 2020 number might be slightly higher now than it will be when looking back in a few months.
    
3. The majority of changes to our every day lives (no school, work from home, stay at home) have happened in the past few weeks.  We might see suppressed seller activity (fewer sellers listing their homes for sale) over the next month which could result in slower buyer activity even if the buyers are really still out there.
   

1. February is but one month - and when we zoom out a bit (read on below) we see a different story.
    
2. The trends above (slower sales, lower prices) were based on transactions closed in February - while the rise of coronavirus (in Virginia) and the fall of the stock market have been in March - meaning there likely isn't much of a linkage.
   

1. We saw a 9% decline in February sales this year (61) compared to last year (67).  Probably not overly surprising given the super strong month of January sales.
    
2. The year-to-date pace of sales (Jan + Feb) is up 22% compared to last year.  We've seen 161 home sales this year as compared to only 132 last year.
    
3. Over the past year we've seen 1,352 home sales -- which is 4.48% more than the 1,294 sales we saw in the previous twelve months.
    
4. I don't have a nice purple number next to it above -- but the median sales price fell 11.67% in February to $189,900 when you compare it to last February.  Then when we zoom out a bit and look at January plus February we see that the median sales price has fallen 6.76% as compared to 2019.  But finally - look for the purple "4" above - the median sales price over the past 12 months is $222,500 and that is up 4.83% from the prior 12 months.  So, we'll say that prices are rising, though they have been lower than expected in January and February alone.
    
5. Homes continue to somehow sell faster - with the median "days on market" falling 32% over the past year to only 17 days.

• Download a PDF of my full market report here.
   
• Learn more about this month's featured home, 1930 Rhianon Lane, here.
  

1. There was a ridiculous (I don't use that term too often in my market analysis) increase in the pace of home sales in January 2020.  After only 65 home sales last January - there were 97 home sales this January - a 49% increase!?
    
2. This strong month of sales in January contributed to the 3.36% increase in the annual pace of home sales in our area, which has now increased to 1,352 sales per year.
    
3. The median sales price of these 1,352 homes was $223,500 - a stronger-than-historically-normal 5.55% increase over where we were a year ago, which was $211,750.
    
4. Homes are selling faster, and faster, and faster - as the median "days on market" has declined 28% over the past year to a mere 18 days.

1. We've seen a 4.02% increase in the number of detached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - which rose to a total of 983 sales over the past 12 months.  This is more than double the number of attached homes that sell in a year.
    
2. The median sales price of (sold) detached homes has risen to $240,000 over the past year -- a 5.26% increase over the median of $228,000 from a year ago.
    
3. We've seen a smaller increase in the pace of attached home sales over the past year.  The 369 sales seen in the past year was only 1.65% higher than the 363 sales seen the prior year.
    
4. The median sales price of (sold) attached homes also saw a rather significant (4.88%) increase over the past year and has now risen to $176,000.

And now, the visual of what we'll call a crazy January...

• 69% of buyers bought in the County last year.  That said, there are around 86K properties in the County and only around 13K in the City.
   
  
• Properties sell much more frequently in the City of Harrisonburg, as last year, approximately 3.1% of City properties (403 of 13K) changed ownership, while only approximately 1.1% of County properties (917 of 86K) changed ownership.

There are any number of factors that affect whether buyers end up buying in the City or County, including what type of property they are seeking, how much land they desires, school systems, employer locations, and much more.

• has increased 18% over the past two years
   
• is still below the peak seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008