Analysis
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Median Home Sales Price |
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 Here's a really long look back at the median sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see another solid increase in the median sales price in 2020 and likely over the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Home Sales |
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 Here's a really long look back at the number of homes that sell each year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see 1,300+ home sales per year for the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
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 Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market...  [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper...  [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find...  ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months...  As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement...  We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future...  Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap...  Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory...  The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find...  The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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When Will Home Buying Activity Ramp Up in 2020? |
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 It should be no surprise that buying activity (contracts being signed) slows down over the Winter. As shown above -- an average of 79 buyers sign contracts in January, which then increases a bit, to 90, in February, and then makes a much larger jump in March to an average of 133/month. So, we're going to say the MARCH is when we first seem a big jump in buyer activity. For that reason, many sellers wait until March (or even April) to put their homes on the market -- though the Spring market brings more competition from other sellers in addition to meaning that we'll start to see more buyers. I have also read several articles (locally, regionally and nationally) talking about how this year the "Spring housing market" is taking off just after Christmas instead of in March like in past years. Let's take a look... Contracts Signed Between December 26 and January 8...
So, over the past three years, there have been an average of 26 contracts between during the two weeks after Christmas. And how about this year?
So, this year is actually starting off just about the same as we've seen for the past three years. The Spring market isn't quite here yet despite what you might read. :-) | |
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My Predictions for the 2020 Real Estate Market |
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 As is my annual tradition, I am making some predictions about what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market in 2020. Above, you'll note that there was only a 1% increase in home sales between 2018 and 2019 -- and I am predicting a 2% increase between 2019 and 2020. A few thoughts along those lines...
So -- I'm betting on another increase, albeit a small increase, in the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020. And how about those prices...  As shown above, we saw a 7% increase in the median sales price in 2018, followed by a 5% increase in 2019! I am -- perhaps too boldly (?) -- predicting we'll see another 5% increase in the median sales price this year. If I'm wrong on either prediction, perhaps it will be this one -- perhaps we'll start to see prices rising, but not quite as fast as they have over the past two years. The chances seem relatively low that we'd see an actual decline in the median sales price in 2020. OK - enough about my predictions --what about for you? Email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and let me know where you think our local market will go in 2020. And keep up with all the market data between now and next January by signing up to receive my monthly housing market report by email if you are not already receiving it. | |
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Comparing My 2019 Housing Market Predictions To Reality |
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 As shown above, I was slightly (just slightly) too optimistic about the pace of home sales that we would see in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2019. I was predicting that we'd see a 2.2% increase to 1,325 home sales -- and we only saw a 1.6% increase to 1,317 home sales. So -- pretty close -- we did see a slight increase in the pace of home sales, and it was less than the 3% that we saw in 2018. Just as I observed last year -- even though we had low inventory levels all year long, buyers still found homes to buy -- which created a slight increase in the pace of sales, and a further decline in "days on market" in 2019.  If I was ever-so-slightly too bold in my prediction as to the pace of home sales, I was too conservative in my prediction as to the change in median sales price we'd see during 2019. I was predicting we'd see a 2.4% increase to a median sales price of $217,000 -- and we actually saw a 5.7% increase to a median sales price of $224,000 in 2019. This is similar to the 6.9% increase that we saw in 2018. So, we did see a smaller increase (5.7% is smaller than 6.9%) during 2019 than we saw in 2018 -- but it was still a larger increase than has been seen in most recent years. Stay tuned for some predictions for 2020 in the coming days! | |
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Home Sales Rise Around One Percent In 2019 |
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 All home sales have not yet been reported but it is seems that we will see around a 1% increase in the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between 2018 and 2019. There have been 1,317 home sales recorded in the MLS thus far for last year and we may see that figure rise a bit more over the next few days, but not by much. This is a slight increase compared to last year -- and marks the highest year in recent memory...
Stay tuned for my full market report in the next week or so, as well as predictions for the 2020 housing market. Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR! | |
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Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019 |
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 Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data...  As shown above...
Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes...  As shown above...
It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County...  As shown above...
But in the County...  As shown above...
And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity...  I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December.  When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016.  When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data.  Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom.  Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated.  While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year.  Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction??  Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties!  If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. | |
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Housing Inventory Levels Plummet in December |
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 First - a note - each data point above is for the end of the given month. Thus, the 235 homes for sale in November are at the end of November -- or, as the case may be, the very beginning of December. Now, there are a few disclaimers I could make about the above data...
Regardless of the reason or explanation, though, the current inventory levels are SUPER low! Which is terribly frustrating for buyers -- and a great opportunity for any home owner who does need to sell right now. You are not likely to have much competition from other sellers! Stay tuned later in the month when I compile my full monthly report and we'll see if inventory levels perked back up as we made our way further into December. | |
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Home Sales Steady, Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Despite rapidly declining temperatures (15 degrees last night!?) the local housing market is still rather hot! Read on for an overview of the latest market trends in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, or download a PDF of the full report here. But first, check out this new listing at The Glen at Cross Keys, pictured above, by visiting 285CallawayCircle.com. OK, now, diving into some data...  Several things to note above, as we can now look at 10 out of 12 months of 2019...
Now, looking at the detached sales trends vs. attached trends, we see similar but slightly different trends...  Above, you might note that...
Next, let's pause for a moment to evaluate sales in the City vs. the County...  As you'll see above...
Now, for the roller coaster of the month-by-month activity...  As shown above, October home sales in 2019 were certainly stronger than we saw in 2016 and 2017 -- but not as strong as last year. That said, home sales then slowed down quite a bit (!!) last November, so perhaps we'll see a stronger performance this November? I'm guessing we'll see 90 to 100 home sales in November 2019.  How do these monthly home sales stack up towards annual sales? The graph above breaks it down -- and we're moving at the fastest pace this year (1,130 sales in 10 months) that we've seen anytime in recent years. We seem to be on track to eclipse 1300 home sales again in 2019 - just as we did (barely) last year.  We can often get the best sense of long term trends by looking at a rolling 12 months of data, as shown above. Here we see that growth in the median sales price has been relatively slow over the past year (compared to a faster increase last year) and the pace of homes selling has remained relatively stable over the past year.  Looking back a few more years, it is clear that median sales prices (and home values) have been increasing steadily for quite a few years now -- ever since 2011 per this data set. But, the increases per year are smaller (1%, 2%, 2%, 4%, 4%, 3%, 7%, 4%) than during the last real estate boom when we had three years of double digit (17%, 14%, 14%) increases in the median sales price. So, perhaps this increase in home prices is more sustainable than the last time we saw steady increases over time.  Back to temperature and seasonality - even though the annual pace of buyer activity is up, right now contract activity is starting to decline. The strongest months of buyer activity are typically in the Spring and Summer. We have started to see the usual slow down this Fall and will likely see continued declines in monthly contract activity as we move through November, December and January.  Somewhat curiously, despite the seasonality of buyer activity -- the inventory levels have stayed relatively steady for the past year -- or at least the last 10 months. We did not see the usual increase in inventory levels in the Spring and Summer this year -- perhaps because buyers were poised and ready and snapped up the new listings as soon as they hit the market. Thus, we may not see much of a decline in inventory levels over the next few months either.  Ah, yes, the buyers DID snap up the listings quickly! In fact, over the past 12 months, 57% of homes that sold were under contract in less than 30 days -- and the median days on market was only 19 days!  Breaking out of the "house" mold for a moment -- look at lot sales this year It seems we'll likely see a similar number of lots of less than an acre selling this year (around 80) but the median sales price has increased quite a bit over any recent past year!?  If you're looking for a sign of relative health in the local housing market -- look no further than the declining foreclosure rate in this area. As shown above, we have seen fewer (and fewer) foreclosures over the past eight years as more and more homes have sold.  And finally, if you're buying now or soon, you'll likely still be locking in a fixed mortgage interest rate below 4%. The average mortgage rate has risen a bit over the past two months, but we're still seeing absurdly low mortgage interest rates for folks buying principal residences. OK -- that's it for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the Winter -- let's chat sooner than later about timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. May we find warmer days ahead! :-) | |
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Inventory Levels Seem Unable To Drop Below 250 |
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 It's been the story for quite a few years now (at least 10 years, it seems) that inventory levels are dropping -- buyers have fewer and fewer homes from which to choose when they are looking to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here are how many homes have been on the market in October for the past 10 years...
So, it's certainly a more challenging time to be a buyer than anytime in the past 10 years -- but inventory levels seem to now be bottoming out around 275. Here's what the past six months have looked like...
So, over the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if we never dipped lower than 250 and we never rose above 300. Given these limited inventory levels, it is more important than ever that buyers in today's market are ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Buyers can make it a bit easier on themselves by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! | |
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Home Sales, Prices Continue To Rise in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Autumn is here! Leaves are falling. Temperatures are falling. Home sales are not -- and prices are not! So, brew yourself a cup of coffee or tea, and let's take a look at some market trends for our local housing market... But first -- find out more about the new homes (rendering above) being built in McGaheysville by visiting IslandFordEstates.com. Now, onto the data, though you can skip to the full PDF report here.  September was another solid month of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above...
 Breaking things down between detached homes (single family homes) and attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) we see some trends that have been consistent throughout the year...
And let's look a bit closer at the month to month trajectory...  A few things stand out above...
Looking afresh at how this year stacks up to prior years...  This has been the fastest (though not by a huge amount) start to the year that we've seen in a while. The 1,017 home sales through the first three quarters of the year surpasses sales seen during the same timeframe in each of the prior four years. So, it seems we may see another year of 1,300+ home sales in our area.  Zooming out -- looking at a rolling twelve months of market data -- we find a slow and steady increase in sales prices over the past year, and a slow and steady increase in the pace of home sales. All indications are that this could / might / should continue on into the remainder of 2019 and potentially 2020.  Taking one more look (above) at value trends we see that the median sales price of detached homes was a190K five years ago -- and has risen to $240K today. That's a healthy increase in home values, though with annual increases of 2% to 7%, it doesn't seem that the overall increases are as unsustainable as they were during the 2003-2007 market boom.  This (October) could be the last strong month of contract activity for a while. Above you'll note that contract signing slowed quite a bit between November and February -- and I expect we'll see something similar this year. The 100 contracts signed in September 2019 was on pace with the 102 seen last September.  The new norm seems to be fewer than 300 homes on the market at any given time. Over the past 11 months there have always been fewer than 300 homes for sale -- though no fewer than 255. This is a far cry from where inventory levels were a few years ago, but perhaps this is where we'll be staying for a while. Buyers don't have many options at any given time, and yet, we're on track for a record setting year of home sales.  If buyers are sad about declines in inventory levels, they certainly aren't sad about declining interest rates! A year ago, the average 30-year interest rate was 4.72% and now it's down over a full percentage to 3.64%. This certainly makes it an affordable time to lock in a housing payment. A few closing thoughts...
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Is October Too Late In The Year To List Your Home For Sale? |
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 I believe this question is best answered by evaluating when buyers make an actual buying decision -- which is when they sign a contract. The data above shows when buyers sign contracts -- calculated by averaging data from the three most recent years. As can be seen, the busiest buying season is March through August when an average of 130 buyers per month make a buying decision. The remaining six months of the year (September through February) show anywhere between 52% and 86% as many buyers as the average of 130 per month seen in the busiest six months of the year. So -- listing your home in October is not at all a bad idea based on this data! As shown above, the it's likely the highest month of buyer activity that we'll see until we get to next March. Even late October can work, as we're likely to see 62% as many buyers signing contracts in November as compared to the average busy month. That said, in the following month (December) we're likely to only see about half as many buyers as compared to the average month. So -- looking to sell before next Spring? Now is the time! | |
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No, Home Values Are Not Falling In Belmont Estates |
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 This post could also be called "The Dangers of Micro Market Analysis" as you'll discover... The graph above shows that the median sales price of homes in Belmont Estates has been falling over the past few years -- from $311K down to $305K and now down to $289K. How could this be!? After all, aren't home values generally going up right now?  Yes, in fact, home values are going up right now. Above you'll see that the median sales price of all homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has risen from $224,600 in 2017 to $228,000 last year to $235,500 in 2019. So, if home values are going up in our overall market area, why is the median sales price going down in Belmont Estates? Do folks just not want to live there any longer? I would suggest that the decline in the median sales price in Belmont Estates is not a result of home values falling, but rather, a result of which specific homes happen to have sold in Belmont Estates over the past three years. We can see this when we look at the size of the homes that sold each year...  As you can see, smaller homes have sold in Belmont Estates as we moved from 2017 to 2018 to 2019. So -- either homes in Belmont Estates are shrinking (ha ha - just kidding) or the median sales price appears to have declined over the past two years because smaller and smaller homes have happened to have sold each year. And thus, this is the danger of analyzing a micro market -- a small amount of data points might lead you to incorrect conclusions. | |
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Are you selling a house listed for more than $400K? |
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 Do you have your house listed for sale over $400K? If so, and the property is in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County you have 81 friends (or competitors??) who also have their homes listed for sale over $400K. And...only 8 buyers are likely to contract on a home each month over the next year based on buyer activity during the past year. So -- 8 of the 82 homes listed for sale over $400K are likely to go under contract in the next 30 days -- and 74 are not. How then, does a seller of a house over $400,000 make their house stand out? How do you best position yourself to be one of the four houses to sell this month?
Bear in mind, of course, that some factors are outside of your control....
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Home Sales Stable, Median Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Summer might not officially end for another six days, but today has certainly has been a nice taste of the cool Autumn days to come. That said, even if the temperatures are starting to cool down, home sales are not yet ready to do so in our local market. Before we take a look at the most recent market trends, take a few minutes to check out this spacious Colonial in Barrington that is pictured above by visiting 2980BrookshireDrive.com. Now, then, let's get down to some overall market stats...  First above, lots (and not much at all) to observe here...
And how about if we break it down between detached homes (almost all purchased by owner occupants) and attached homes (mostly purchased by owner occupants, but also purchased by investors)...  Here's what we're finding...
And now for that pretty visualization of the month to month ebb and flow of home sales...  Here (above) we note that every summer is different. Last year (blue line) June was a spectacular month for home sales - with 174 closings - more than seen anytime (ever!) in our local area. This year (the red line) June home sales were mediocre at best. But then, July and August home sales were stronger this summer as compared to last year. Looking ahead to September, I anticipate that we're likely to see around 110 home sales - slightly more than the past two years, but not quite as many as back in 2016.  When we pile all of the months on top of each other we can get a clearer view of how the first eight months of this year (Jan-Aug) compares to the first eight months of the past four years. And this is where we find that we have had the best first eight months of anytime in at least the past five years. Given the current trajectory, it seems likely that we'll see at least 1,300 home sales this year.  This graph shows us the overall long term trends in local home sales. The green line is the median sales price which has been creeping its way up over the past year. The orange line shows the annual rate of home sales, which has been hovering around 1,300 home sales for the past year.  Focusing in just on the detached homes, we see that the median sales price has been increasing anywhere from 2% to 7% per year for each of the past four years. This year we are likely to see another increase in the median sales price somewhere in that range.  With steady home sales and increasing sales prices, it's a great time to be a seller. But not as great of a time to be a buyer. As shown above, there have been a relatively stable number of home buyers over the past few years, but the number of homes for sale at any given point has been steadily declining for over three years.  Why do I think we'll see 110 home sales in September? Well, partially because 120 home buyers signed contracts in August. This was a higher rate of contract activity than last August and suggests that sales will continue to be relatively strong as we continue into the Fall.  And here (above) are those overall inventory numbers. The number of homes for sale has been declining over the past year. We used to see much more of an increase in available inventory during the Spring months but this past year buyers were contracting on new listings almost as fast as they were being listed, which kept the inventory levels low.  Here's a startling statistic. Inventory levels have declined 13% over the past year when we look just at detached homes -- but when we look just at attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) we find a shocking 50% decline in the number of homes for sale! It is a tough time to be a first time buyer these days!  Finally, mortgage interest rates. If there is any consolation for today's home buyer it is that their mortgage interest rate is likely to be lower than anytime in the past year or longer. Interest rates have fallen 21% over the past year -- from 4.52% to 3.58%. A few final notes and thoughts for those that made it this far...
That's all for today. Have a delightful, pleasant, cool evening! | |
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Do Detached Or Attached Homes Appreciate More Over Time? |
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 Over the past five years, detached homes have increased more in price (on average, per year) than attached homes (townhouses, duplexes, condos). This wouldn't always be the case if we looked back over the past 20 years -- we could find time periods when this were not true -- but we have seen some larger than normal swings in home values during some of those past 20 years. My general sense (beyond the numbers) is in line with what the graph above shows -- which is that over time (5+ years) both detached and attached homes are likely to increase in value, but detached homes are likely to increase in value a bit more quickly than attached homes. | |
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Fewer and Fewer Foreclosures in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Here's a reminder of what is a good indicator that our local housing market continues to get healthier over time -- as shown above, the number of foreclosure sales per year has declined over the past several years. To put these into an even larger context:
All in all, it is a good sign for our local housing market when the number of foreclosures per year declines. It means more homeowners are able to stay in their homes, and make their mortgage payments, which is a general sign of a stronger local economy. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Over $500K Small But Strong Segment of Local Market |
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 Only 3% of local home buyers spend $500K or more on their home purchase (per sales data over the past year) but this segment of the local housing market has been strong over the past few years. As shown above, there were 40 home sales over $500K last year - more than any time in the past decade. This year we seem to be on track to possibly match that, with 33 home sales over $500K in the first eight-ish months of the year. Reigning in our enthusiasm a bit, though, this is a relatively small number of buyers. If you are selling a home over $500K, you need to keep in mind that only about 40 buyers per year (just over 3 per month) spend that much money on a home in ALL of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Let's look a bit further into even smaller segments of the high end local market...  While last year (15 home sales) wasn't quite the strongest year for $600K+ home sales -- this year looks like it will be. We have already -- in eight months -- matched the highest number of $600K+ home sales seen in a year when looking back for 10 years. And one more look at an even higher price point...  Above, you'll see that most years there are only 5 or fewer home sales over $700K. But back in 2015 there were 11 (which was more than double the norm) and this year there have already been 10 such home sales! So -- overall, the high end home sales market is doing well -- comparatively, but that is not to say that selling a home over $500K is an easy task - it's not. Home sellers over $500K are aiming for a tiny pool of potential buyers -- even if that pool of buyers might be slightly stronger this year than last. | |
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Fewer Than 1 In 4 Home Buyers Spend Over $300K in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Lots to observe / conclude here...
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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