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Looking Back At My Predictions For The 2022 Harrisonburg Real Estate Market |
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![]() Within the first week of 2022 I made two predictions for the 2022 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market related to how many home sales we would see, and what changes we would see in the median sales price in our market. As shown above, I was predicting a 2% increase in the number of home sales in our market... from 1,668 sales up to 1,695 sales. But... higher mortgage interest rates intervened, cooling buyer demand, leading to a 7% decline in home sales... from 1,668 sales down to 1,555 sales. And how about those prices... ![]() As you can see above, I was predicting that after two years (!!) of 10% increase in the median sales price that we would only see a 5% increase in the median sales price last year... which would have been an increase from $270,000 to $284,000. But, in actuality, high levels of buyer demand throughout most of the year lead to an increase in the median sales price that was much larger than I had predicted. The median sales price in our local market increased 11% in 2022, from $270,000 up to $299,900! Stay tuned later this week for my predictions for the local housing market in 2023. | |
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Median Sales Price In A Larger (Longer) Context |
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![]() We have seen three distinct periods of changes in the median sales price in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham real estate market... 2000 - 2006 = Growth 2007 - 2014 = Minor, Slow, Correction 2015 - 2022 = Growth What's on everyone's mind now is... what comes next! Will we see prices continue to rise in 2023? Will they level out? Will they decline a bit? I have no answers. ;-) I'll make some guesses next week. | |
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Annual Home Sales In A Larger (Longer) Context |
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![]() Even after the last few home sales of 2022 are tabulated, we'll see a net decline in the number of homes selling in 2022 as compared to 2021. In the graph above I have each year color coded as follows... GREEN = 4% or greater increase in # home sales RED = 4% or greater decrease in # home sales GREY = less than a 4% change in # home sales Thus, as you can see, we've seen an increase in the pace of home sales in the local market, or less than a 4% change in the pace of home sales, every year since 2000 except for in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010... and now, 2022. It's hard to say at this point what 2023 will look like, but it seems reasonable to think we may see another (+4%) decline in the numbers of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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Even With A Slower Second Half Of 2022, It Will Have Been The Third Strongest Year Of Sales, Ever |
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![]() Mortgage interest rates rose considerably in the second half of 2022 -- actually, even as early as mid-April they had already surpassed 5%. These higher rates eventually (months later) lead to a slowdown in the number of homes selling in 2022. Yet, despite this slowdown, 2022 will close out as the second strongest year of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, ever. Thus far in 2022 we have seen 1,548 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reported in the HRAR MLS. Last year, in all of 2021, there were 1,668 home sales. As such, yes, we aren't breaking any records this year. But, prior to 2021, there was never a year with more than 1,500 home sales in a single year. The closest (which was quite close) was 2020 with 1,495 home sales. So, was 2022 a much slower, much weaker year of home sales in this area? Not really. It was slightly slower than last year... but stronger than every other year before that, ever. NOTE: After having awarded 2022 with the beautiful second place ribbon above I then looked back even further beyond the past decade and found that there WAS one other year with more home sales than 2022... way back in 2005. So, 2022 will really end up being the third strongest year of home sales, ever. | |
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Home Sales Slow In November 2022, But Prices Keep On Rising |
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![]() Happy Tuesday morning, friends! Winter is upon us. The holidays are upon us. I hope you have been enjoying the variety of Christmas light displays in and around Harrisonburg. Shaena and I, with several other family members, greatly enjoyed visiting the "Winter Wander" light display at the Boar's Head Resort in Charlottesville a few nights ago. Next time maybe we'll have to dine there or stay over as it was quite lovely! Check out the lights at Winter Wander yourself between now and January 7th... ![]() Before we move onto the real estate data we're all waiting for, each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places (or things) in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Walkabout Outfitter, Bella Gelato and the JMU Forbes Center. This month, I encourage you to go check out Grilled Cheese Mania on Main Street in Harrisonburg. If you find me at GCM, you'll likely find me enjoying the Triple Lindy with a side of Miss Tess' Tomato Mac. :-) Click here to enter to win a $50 gift certificate to Grilled Cheese Mania! Finally, take a few minutes to check out this month's featured home... a spacious, remodeled farmhouse on an acre in the Turner Ashby district with some excellent outdoor amenities located at 3667 Dry Hollow Road! Now, let's take a look at the latest data in our local real estate market... ![]() Let's drive right into a few of the main metrics of our local housing market outlined above... [1] Home sales slowed considerably this November compared to last November... declining 35% from 138 sales to 90 sales. You'll see a clearer (and more startling) visual of that shortly. [2] This significant decline in the number of home sales in November 2022 resulted in an overall 3.5% decline in 2022 home sales as compared to 2021 home sales when viewing the first 11 months of the year. [3] But yet... the median sales price in our area keeps on rising, up 11.3% from a year ago to $299,900 when looking at the first 11 months of 2022. [4] Furthermore, homes are (as a whole) still selling just as quickly... with a consistent median of five days on the market thus far in 2022, which matches the speed of home sales a year ago. Now, that startling visual of the November 2022 dip in home sales... ![]() Lots to note regarding the graph above... [1] We saw slower (fewer) home sales in each of the four months leading up to November. This was not altogether surprising, as mortgage interest rates have been steadily rising throughout 2022. [2] Home sales really (!!!) slowed down in November 2022... dipping down to 90 home sales as compared to 138 in the same month last year. [3] The 90 home sales this November is not actually that different than the 93 seen back in November 2019. [4] The past two years (2020 and 2021) may very well be anomalies given that they were during the Covid induced overheating of the local real estate market. If we look at the five Novembers prior to 2020 (thus, 2015-2019) we'll find an average of 94 home sales in November. So... home sales dropped significantly in November 2022. That's somewhat surprising, as it finishes off a long, multi-year, run of a super exuberant local housing market. It's also not that surprising, given rising mortgage interest rates, and given what usually happens in November if we're not in Covid times. As we'll see below, the temporary (crazy) boom in home sales brought on by Covid and super low mortgage interest rates may be coming to an end... ![]() Prior to Covid (2020-2021) we had been seeing a relatively consistent 1300-ish home sales per year. Then, the market went crazy during 2020 and 2021 and home sales approached 1500 sales in a year, and then almost reached 1700 sales in a year. That string of two record breaking years in a row... won't continue in 2022. All the way up through September 2022, it was seeming that we'd have yet another record breaking year this year. But 2022 fell slightly behind in October, and even further behind in November. Looking ahead, it seems likely that 2022 will end up being the second strongest year of home sales ever in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... just behind 2021. Looking at things from a slightly longer term perspective, we can see yet again how the local real estate market is slowing a bit after having peaked in 2021/2022... ![]() A year and a half ago (ish) we were seeing home sales at an annual pace of 1,617 sales per year... back in July 2021... which included sales from August 2020 through July 2021. Now, we're seeing home sales at an annual pace of 1,620 sales per year... which includes sales from December 2021 through November 2022. So, the market has retreated a bit... with fewer sales per year now than we've seen for the past year and a half-ish. This was highly predictable given rather dramatic increases in mortgage interest rates. It is somewhat surprising, however, that the decline in annual sales has been as small as it has been given how much mortgage interest rates have increased. The pace of annual sales peaked at 1,726 sales... and we have only seen a 6% decline from that peak... to 1,620 sales per year. Now, then, given that home sales are slowing, we're almost certainly seeing inventory levels rising, right? ![]() I'll make this point a few more times as we continue through these graphs, but here's your first visual showing that even if the market is starting to transition a bit, it's not doing it very rapidly. Yes, home sales are slowing. The graph above shows how many buyers are buying in a six month timeframe. We have seen a decline over the past year from 833 buyers buying every six months down to 810 buyers buying. So, yes, the pace of buyers committing to buy is certainly slowing. But... we're not seeing as much of an increase in sellers selling (inventory levels) as we might otherwise expect. We've seen an increase over the past year from 115 homes for sale up to 138 homes for sale, but that's still a notable net decline in inventory from two years ago and three years ago. So, is it a slightly less strong seller's market now? Yes. Is it still a strong seller's market now? Yes. Now, looking at contract activity for a moment, to predict where things might be headed from here... ![]() As becomes evident with my handwritten note on the graph above... contract activity this October and November was MUCH slower than last October and November! After a combined total of 297 contracts being signed during that two month period last year... we have seen only 166 contracts signed this October and November, which is a 44% decline! Again, first, not a total surprise. Buyers are a bit less excited to sign contracts to buy homes with interest rates of 6% to 7% (this Oct/Nov) as compared to when interest rates are 2.5% to 3.5% (last Oct/Nov). Second, these lower contract numbers have started to result in lower sales numbers and that is likely to roll into December sales and January sales. Finally, it's important to remember that past two winters (2020, 2021) were a bit abnormal given Covid (lots of buyers wanting to buy a house) and super low interest rates (lots of buyers qualifying to buy a house) and this winter we seem to be returning to what was previously a typical seasonal trend of fewer contracts and sales during winter months. Now, then, back to inventory... certainly it must be rising, given fewer closed sales and fewer contracts being signed, right? ![]() And... nope! Inventory levels rose through much of 2022... but have now been declining for the past four months... as is relatively normal for the fall into winter timeframe. Furthermore, inventory levels are still lower now than they were two years ago. This coming spring will be interesting, depending on how mortgage interest rates look at that time. It's typical to see lower inventory levels in the winter, and that makes the lower contract numbers less consequential. Lots of folks choose to sell in the spring and summer, and if we have lower contract numbers at that time, then we could see inventory levels starting to measurably increase. Driving this point home one more time... ![]() The graph above shows inventory levels by property type. Inventory levels of attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) have stayed relatively consistently between 25 and 40 over the past year and a half. Inventory levels of detached homes were rising between June 2021 and June 2022... but then have declined for the past four months. So, as my notes point out... higher mortgage interest rates did indeed lead to slower sales... but slower sales are not necessarily leading to higher inventory levels. Come spring, we may have new insights as to a potential new trajectory of the market if more sellers want to sell and this lower number of buyers are willing to buy. This next graph has become a bit more complex since I last referenced it... ![]() First, conceptually, the timeframe in which homes are going under contract (days on market) is often an excellent indicator of the tone of the local market. As such, for some time I have been tracking the "median days on market" for homes that are selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The annual median days on market (blue line above) fell to five days (!) back in July 2021 and has remained at that level ever since. As the market has started to feel like it might be transitioning, or as we have though that maybe the market would have to be transitioning, several of you insightful and intelligent readers have asked if this "median days on market" trend looks different if we weren't looking at an entire year of data at a time. Basically asking the question... well, if the median days on market is five days over the past year... certainly it must be (might be?) higher if we looked only at the last few months, right? The new lines on this graph above address this inquiry. The gold/yellow line evaluates median days on market in a six month timeframe... and the red line shows this same metric in a three month timeframe. All that to say... even if we narrow our scope all the way down to the past three months... the median days on market has only risen to... six days instead of five. Half (or more) of the homes that have sold in the past three months were under contract within six days of being listed for sale. If (when?) the market transitions further, we will likely start to see this metric (median days on market) start to trend higher... but we're not seeing it yet. One of the main market impacting factors that I mentioned multiple times throughout this report is the change in mortgage interest rates over the past year... ![]() A year ago buyers enjoyed mortgage interest rates right around 3%. Today... rates are twice as high... with an average rate of 6.58% for a 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate as of the end of November. Rates have actually trended down a bit further since that time... with a current average of 6.33% that is not yet shown on the graph above. Will significantly higher mortgage interest rates cause some buyers to not be able to buy? Yes. Will significantly higher mortgage interest rates cause some buyers to not want to buy? Yes. Will significantly higher mortgage interest rates cause a significant (10% or more?) decline in the number of buyers buying homes in our local housing market? Thus far, it seems not. And there you have it... the latest trends in our local housing market as we roll into the last two(ish) weeks of 2022. [1] We're starting to see fewer home sales... though the "fewer" is compared to a "higher" time that we might later conclude was well outside the norm for our local market. [2] We're still seeing higher and higher sales prices in our local market despite (non-cash) buyers financing their home purchase at some of the highest mortgage interest rates we've seen in over 10 years. [3] Despite slightly less buyer activity, inventory levels are remaining stable and may be starting to return to historical seasonal trends of fewer homes on the market in the winter and inventory levels rising again in the spring and summer. As we near the end of 2022, some of you may be considering the sale of your home (or the purchase of a new one) in 2023. If so, we should start chatting sooner rather than later about how all of these market trends potentially impact your plans and the timing of those plans. Feel free to reach out to start that conversation by emailing me or texting or calling me at 540-578-0102. I'll provide another update after the first of the year. Until then, I hope you enjoy the remainder of what is one of my favorite months of the year. December includes Shaena's and my anniversary, Shaena's birthday, and Christmas! Celebrations all month long. ;-) I hope you have an enjoyable, peaceful, fulfilling remainder of 2022 -- and that you find opportunities to spend time with the people you love during this holiday season! | |
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Comparison Shopping (For Homes) Is Difficult In A Low Inventory Market |
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![]() If you were going to buy a ____, it would probably be nice to look at multiple options, compare them, and then decide which one to buy, right? That is often possible with buying a home, whenever we have a balanced market (or a buyer's market) when buyers can find multiple houses on the market at any given time that might work for them. A buyer would then go view multiple houses, compare them, and decide if they want to make an offer on one of the available homes. These days (and for the past few years) we have been in a strong sellers market, with very low inventory levels. The same number of houses have typically been available for a buyer to consider... but they are often evaluating them one at a time, every few weeks... instead of all at once. Sorta like this...
Basically, home buyers have had to make a decision about whether to buy a house... one house a time... without the ability to compare multiple options that are available at the same time. That may eventually change, in some or most price ranges, if we start to see inventory levels increase over time. Until then, it can be a challenge to be a thoughtful and intentional comparison shopper when trying to buy a home! | |
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High Buyer Demand Keeps Prices Rising Despite High Interest Rates, But What If... |
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![]() Between 2019 and 2021 we saw very high levels of buyer demand... and very low mortgage interest rates... which lead to higher and higher sales prices. In 2022 we saw continued high levels of buyer demand... combined with much higher mortgage interest rates... and yet, prices kept rising. Perhaps we'll never need to know the answer to my "what if" above... since buy demand might remain quite high in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area for years to come... But what if.... buyer demand declined... and mortgage interest rates remained high... would prices remain high? Or would prices level out? Or would prices start to decline? Again, so long as buyer demand remains high, we may never need to know the answer to this hypothetical question... but feel free to let me know what your guess is as to how our local market would respond... | |
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Current Housing Market Trends In Four Lines, Two Curves |
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![]() I sent out a long and detailed market report yesterday with lots of data, charts and graphs. You can find it here. But maybe you don't want to read something that long. ;-) For those that don't, enjoy a comprehensive(ish) understanding of the market described above with four lines and two curves. SALES - we have started to see fewer sales over the past four months PRICES - the median sales price keeps on rising INVENTORY - after starting to see some increases we are now seeing what is likely a seasonal decline in the number of homes for sale CONTRACTS - we have seen multiple months of declining contract activity DAYS ON MARKET - homes are still selling fast... very fast RATES - mortgage interest rates keep on rising Sure, this leaves out some of the nuance in yesterday's report, but it should give you a good enough primer to understand the basic market dynamics at play right now in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Questions? Thoughts? Observations? Email me: scott@hhtdy.com | |
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Slightly Fewer Homes Are Selling At Ever Higher Prices |
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![]() Happy Monday morning, friends! What a delightfully warm fall we had this year! I hope you have taken advantage of the beautiful weather and explored some of the many outdoor adventures the Shenandoah Valley offers us. Late last month, Shaena and I, with several other family members, enjoyed a 30 mile bike ride on the Greenbrier River Trail in West Virginia and took in many beautiful sights along the way. I highly recommend it as a day trip! ![]() Before we get to latest happenings in our local real estate market, each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places (or things) in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Bella Gelato, the JMU Forbes Center and the Harrisonburg Half Marathon. This month, I encourage you to go check out Walkabout Outfitter in downtown Harrisonburg where you will find plenty of awesome gear and apparel for your next outdoor adventure! As a bonus, click here to enter to win a $50 gift certificate to Walkabout Outfitter! Also, take a few minutes to check out this month's featured home... a spacious, five bedroom home in Highland Park located at 3658 Traveler Road! Now, then, let's dig into the data. I'll preface it by saying that the trends you might read regarding significant changes in housing markets across the country don't necessarily seem to be showing up in our local housing market at this time. Read on to see what that means from the latest available data... ![]() A few things stand out to me as I look at the latest overall numbers in our local housing market above... [1] We saw fewer home sales in October of this year (147) compared to last year (166) which marked an 11% decline in monthly sales activity. [2] This decline in October sales piles onto January through September sales to show a tiny decline in home sales (-0.43%) when looking at the first ten months of this year compared to the first ten months of last year. [3] Homes are still selling for quite a bit more now than they were last year. The median sales price of homes sold thus far in 2022 has been $299,900 -- up 11.5% from last year when the median sales price was $269,000. [4] Homes are still selling (as a whole) just as fast now as they were last year. The current median days on market is five days... just as it was a year ago at this time. This means that half (or more) of homes that sell are under contract within five days of being listed for sale. So... a slower than expected October, but otherwise still quite a strong year of home sales activity. That theme will continue as we work our way through the rest of the data, with only a few exceptions. It is interesting to note the slight difference in performance of detached single family homes compared to attached homes, which includes duplexes, townhouses and condos... ![]() [1&2] Detached single family home sales are shown in the first two green tables above and you'll note that there were just about the same number of sales this year (939) as last year (937) and that the median sales price has increased 13% over the past year. [3&4] In contrast, we have seen a slightly decline (-2%) in attached home sales over the past year and the increase in the median sales price (+8%) is slightly lower than that of single family homes. So, the "detached" portion of our local housing market has outperformed the "attached" portion of the market, but not significantly. Looking at the last few months graphically, it seems the lower month of home sales in October was actually... the fourth month in a row of fewer sales... ![]() During each of the past four months (Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct) we have seen fewer home sales this year than during the same month last year. Looking ahead, it seems very likely that we will see fewer home sales in November and December as well, especially once we consider the number of contracts signed (or not signed) in October. Read on for more on that... Here, then, for the first month in quite a few years, I am reporting that the pace of home sales (the number selling) is declining... ever so slightly... ![]() Don't get me wrong, it's been exciting to report each and every month for the past few years that there have been more, and more, and more home sales. But perhaps this rapid increase in the number of homes selling could not go on forever. This year and last are now relatively even when looking at the first ten months of the year, but 2022 is falling slightly behind. At this point, I am predicting that we'll see 2022 fall a bit further behind as we finish out the year. But despite fewer sales, prices are... ![]() Yes, indeed, home prices are still rising. The orange line above shows the number of homes selling in a year's time. The last four months of declines in the annual pace of sales is a result of those four months of fewer sales shown in the previous graph. We have now seen a decline from a peak of 1,726 sales per year down to 1,667 sales per year. But despite fewer sales... home prices keep on climbing! The median sales price of homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year has now risen to $295,000. As one of my past clients once pointed out... most homeowners don't care how many homes are selling... they care about the prices of those homes that are selling. So, from an overall market perspective, things are still looking rather bright in the local housing market as prices seem to still be on the rise, even if we are seeing slightly fewer home sales. Another trend that is interwoven into this equation is housing inventory... how many homes are on the market for sale at any given point... ![]() Over the past several years we have seen extremely low inventory levels at any given point in time. Plenty of homes have been listed for sale, but they have gone under contract very quickly given very strong buyer demand in almost all price ranges and locations. During much of 2022 we started to see an increase in the number of homes listed for sale...rising to 163 homes for sale in July... compared to only 129 the previous July. So, yes, the market seems to be transitioning a bit... perhaps we won't see super low inventory levels forever. But despite signs of a slowly transitioning market during the spring and summer of 2022, we are now seeing a normal seasonal decline in inventory levels as we work our way into the fall. The place where the rubber meets the road is when we combine buyer activity (demand) and housing inventory (supply) to see what balance does or does not exist in the market... ![]() As shown above, we may be starting to see a slight, modest, tiny transition in the balance of the market. We are starting to see buying activity slow... slightly. We are also starting to see inventory levels rise... slightly. Do keep in mind, though, that this is likely a transition from an extremely strong seller's market to a very strong seller's market. There is still very strong demand in the market for most properties at most price points and in most locations. To get anywhere close to being a balanced market we would need to see much more significant declines in buyers who want to buy homes and much more significant increases in sellers who want to sell homes. I'm realizing now that my preceding paragraph might now seem like it was leading up to this next graph. Digest the next graph... don't fall off of your chair... and then keep reading below... ![]() Somewhat surprising, right? There was a significant, large, drastic, huge decline in contracts being signed this October as compared to last October. Why? What happened? Does this mean the market is turning on a dime? Is buyer demand dropping off a cliff overnight? I'd point out a few things... [1] Mortgage interest rates did jump up again, significantly, in September and October - which likely played at least some role in slowing down buyer enthusiasm. Which, side note, was the intended effect -- or at least an understood side effect -- of the interest rate hikes. [2] If we're surprised by the low number of contracts signed this October we should probably be equally (or even more) surprised by the ridiculously high number of contracts signed last October. Last October was the peak of contract signing in all of 2021, which is odd -- that doesn't usually happen in October. All that is to say, the number of contracts signed in October (94) leads me to believe that we will see slightly slower months of home sales in November and December, but it does not cause me to conclude that the market changed drastically sometime in October. Clearly, though, only time will prove me right, wrong, mostly right or mostly wrong. ;-) So... with this big (but perhaps temporary) decline in contracts being signed... and with the slight decline in homes selling... it's probably safe to say that homes are not going under contract as quickly, right? ![]() Ummmmm... nope! The "median days on market" metric continues to hover at five days on the market. Homes are still going under contract very quickly. To be clear, this data point above is looking at home sales over the past 12 months to arrive at this "five days" metric. You might then wonder if we would start to see higher "days on market" results if we looked only at the past six months, or three months or one month. Let's take a look... Median Days On Market Past 12 Months = 5 days Past 6 Months = 5 days Past 3 Months = 6 days Past Month = 6 days So, yes, it's taking... one extra day for homes to go under contract. ;-) Now, for our monthly opportunity to point the finger of blame... ![]() Why oh why are home sales slowing down? Why is contract activity slowing down? What in the world could be causing these changes? ;-) Well, could it be higher mortgage interest rates? We started the year with interest rates below 4% and then proceeded to fly past 4%, 5%, 6% and now 7%. Home buyers will keep on buying as prices rise 10% (or more) per year when mortgage interest rates are between 2% and 4%... but when mortgage interest rates get to 6% or 7% that can start to impact buyer decision making... either because they can no longer afford the monthly mortgage payment... or because they don't want the higher monthly mortgage payment associated with current mortgage interest rates. Just as a bit of context (that is sure to make me sound old) back when Shaena and I bought our first home (a townhouse in Beacon Hill in 2003) our mortgage interest rate was... 6.25%. So, these mortgage interest rates of 6% or 7% aren't absolutely crazy from a long-term context, but after experiencing abnormally low mortgage interest rates for years, and years, and years... a 6% or 7% rate certainly sounds and feels high! Now then, where does all of this leave us? Lots of homes are still selling... rather quickly... at higher prices than ever before... but buyer activity is slowing a bit... at least partially related to high mortgage interest rates. Thus, my advice is as follows, depending on where you fit into our local market... SELLERS - Consider selling sooner rather than later in case mortgage interest rates keep climbing, or in case prices start to level out. BUYERS - Consult with an experienced lender to understand your best mortgage options to make sure you are buying at a reasonable and comfortable price point. HOMEOWNERS - Enjoy your (likely) low mortgage interest rate, and your still-increasing home value. If you're considering buying or selling yet this year... or in early 2023... let's chat sooner rather than later to formulate a game plan. The first step? Email me or text/call me at 540-578-0102. I'll provide another market update next month, but between now and then I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving and that you are able to let those dear to you know how thankful you are that they are a part of your life. Happy Thanksgiving! | |
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10% Of A Big Number Is... A Big Number! |
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![]() Between 2020 and 2021, the median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County increased by over ten percent! Between 2021 and 2022, the median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County increased by over ten percent! I've told you about these back to back years of double digit increases enough times that you might not be surprised when you read the statements above. But, sometimes when we translate it into actual numbers, it can be surprising. Let's say a property was worth $460K two years ago. Based on the changes (+10%) in the overall market, that property may very well have been worth $506K last year. Based on the changes (10%) in the overall market, that property may very well be worth $556K today. Gasp! A house that was worth $460K two years ago is now potentially worth almost $560K today? An increase of nearly $100,000 in just two years!?! Indeed, these double digit increases in value can end up being very large increases in dollars when we start at a very high price point. | |
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Fewer Than 10% Of Buyers Spend Less Than $200K On Single Family Homes In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() If you're hoping to buy a single family home for less than $200,000 in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you might find it challenging to do so. Only 8% of the single family homes sold in the past 12 months have sold for less than $200,000. Getting straight to the numbers... Total Detached Home Sales = 1,123 Detached Home Sales Under $200K = 86 | |
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Where Do Home Prices Go From Here? |
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![]() This is a question very much on the mind of potential home buyers and potential home sellers in the local real estate market in late 2022... Where DO home prices go from here? As per the illustration above, do we see... 1. Home prices keep in rising, perhaps another 10% in 2023. 2. Home prices plateau in 2023, with similar prices as in 2022. 3. Home prices correct, drop, droop, decline by 10% in 2023. It's hard to imagine won't keep increasing (scenario one) given that they have through the first nine months of 2022 even in the context of quickly rising mortgage interest rates. But yet at the same time, it's hard to imagine that prices won't level out or decline some given those quickly rising mortgage interest rates. I can be convinced by those that I talk to (buyers, sellers, agents, bankers, appraisers) that prices will keep on rising in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... and I can be convinced by those same folks (or a different set of them) that home prices will flatten out or decline slightly in 2023. So, I have absolutely zero answers as to what we should expect in 2023, but interestingly, even if home prices dropped by 10% in 2023... that would take us ALLLLL the way back to 2021 sales prices. ;-) | |
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October 2022 Contract Activity Has Dropped Significantly, Sort Of |
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![]() Has the local real estate market slowed down? Oh yes, quite a bit! How so? Last October 156 homes went under contract in the first 27 days of the month... and this year only 81 homes have gone under contract in that time frame. Wow. Quite a bit slower! Indeed. -- So, yes, contract activity this month is much lower than it was last year during October... but as the graph above reveals, there may be more to the story. First of all, the orange and green bars represent 2020 and 2021 and I think we'll eventually look back and conclude that they were abnormal years, with buying activity super-charge by a worldwide pandemic, as unexpected as that was. So, the bright orange and bright green bars that tower above the rest of the months on the chart might be outliers. Looking for a moment, then, just at the blue bars... This August (2022) we saw a 13% increase in August contracts compared to August 2019. This September (2022) we saw a 10% increase in September contracts compared to September 2019. And...in October... we are dragging ever so slightly behind October 2019, but things aren't looking overly different from where things were three years ago, just before Covid. -- So... is this October slower than last October when it comes to contracts being signed? Yes, absolutely! Much slower! Is this October slower than the last pre-Covid October we have seen in this market? It's slower, but just barely. Is the pace of home buying slowing down in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Yes, it seems so... but by how much depends on whether we compare the present times to Covid times or pre-Covid times. | |
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Contract Activity Seems To Be Slowing Down (Quite A Bit) In October 2022 |
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![]() It's best not to get your face too close to the data. The closer we look at the data, at a smaller and smaller data set, the more likely we can find ourselves concluding one thing when another is actually true. So, as you ponder the meaning of the graph above, keep in mind that the last set of data (October 1 - 15) is a rather small set of data... from just two weeks in our local market... so it may or may not be indicative of an overall trend. But... with that length disclaimer having been thrown out there... After seeing modest declines in contract activity in August (-13%) and September (-15%) it seems that contract activity might be REALLY slowing down (-51%) in October. Last October, in the first half of the month, a total of 81 contracts were signed for buyers to buy and sellers to sell houses in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This year in those same 15 days, only 40 contracts have been signed. It's hard to say if this significant decline in contract activity will continue as we move through October and into November, but if things were slowing down slightly in August and September, they seem to be slowing down more quickly in October. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Slowing Slightly But Prices Keep Rising |
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![]() Happy Thursday afternoon, friends! Fall is upon us... with cool mornings and evenings, but often still reaching pleasant afternoon temperatures... and beautiful colors on trees throughout the Valley! Fall is my favorite season for the reasons above, and because it's volleyball season. My daughter plays JV volleyball and I coach middle school volleyball, both of which bring a lot of fun, excitement and joy to my life each fall. I hope that your fall, likewise, is full of fun, excitement and joy! Before we get to real estate... Each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places (or things) in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Black Sheep Coffee and the Harrisonburg Half Marathon and the JMU Forbes Center. I'm bouncing back to another of my favorite spots to grab a cup of coffee... Bella Gelato, located on West Water Street in downtown Harrisonburg where you can enjoy delicious gelato that is made by hand on site, plus a pastry case of baked goods, and an espresso and coffee bar where you'll often find me ordering a caramel latte. Interested in checking out Bella Gelato? Click here to enter to win a $50 gift card to Bella Gelato! ...and this month's featured home is... The beautifully renovated home on the cover of this month's market report is located on the corner of Franklin Street and Myers Avenue, just a short walk from the many restaurants and shopping destinations in downtown Harrisonburg... such as Bella Gelato. ;-) Check out 400 Franklin Street here. ...and now, the real estate market update... First, before we get to the numbers, let's start with the big picture...it feels like the local housing market is changing or transitioning in some ways. Mortgage interest rates have increased drastically over the past six months and that seems to be impacting the amount of buyer activity and enthusiasm in our local market. Most sellers are experiencing fewer showings and fewer offers in the first week or two of their homes being on the market. But yet, we are still seeing relative stability in the number of homes selling in this area, combined with continued increases in the prices for which homes are selling. ![]() As shown above... [1] Home sales were 7% slower this September than last, with 140 home sales this year compared to 150 home sales last year. [2] Thus far this year we have seen 1,234 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, which is 1% more than we saw in the first nine months of last year. [3] The median sales price has increased 11% over the past year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, from $269K to $300K. [4] Homes are still selling very quickly, with a median days on market of only five days. More on this later. So if things feel slow lately, how are things still stable? Good question... see below for a month by month breakdown... ![]() As shown above, we saw much higher numbers of home sales this year during April, May and June, followed by lower numbers of home sales this year during July, August and September. So, we had a very strong second quarter of the year, followed by somewhat weaker third quarter. What, then, will the fourth quarter of the year show? Given that mortgage interest rates keep creeping up higher and higher, I am anticipating that the fourth quarter of this year will show fewer home sales than the fourth quarter of 2021... which would then lead to an overall decline in the number of home sales between 2021 and 2022... if my guess is correct... and I make plenty of guesses that are not correct. ;-) The following graph helps put this year in an even more helpful context... ![]() Two few observations about this "stacked up" graph above... [1] Yes, 2022 is still slightly ahead of 2021 through September... but we the gap is much narrower than it was a few months ago. [2] Even if we don't see 1,673 home sales in 2022 to match last year's total count, it seems very likely that we will still eclipse both 2019 and 2022. The following two trends seem to be running counter to each other, at least thus far... ![]() The orange line above shows the number of homes selling on an annual basis in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The number of annual sales was climbing quickly through the end of 2021 but has mostly leveled off since the start of 2022. It seems unlikely that the annual pace of home sales will start increasing again anytime soon. The green line above shows the median sales price of homes selling in a 12-month period. As you can see, sales prices keep on rising. The median sales price over the past 12 months has been $292K... which is about $26K higher than the median sales price of $266K just a year ago. Moving forward, I expect we'll see home sales (green line) stay level or decline somewhat... while sales prices (orange line) will likely keep rising or possibly level out a bit. Changes in home prices over time are pretty wild if we scoot back a bit and look at a multi-year picture... ![]() If only everyone had bought a median priced home ($198K) five years ago... then everyone would own a home that is now potentially worth $100,000 more, given the current median sales price of $299,837 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This is a drastic shift in sales prices over a relatively short timeframe, meaning that... [1] Housing is more expensive for anyone who does not currently own a home. [2] Anyone who has owned a home during this time likely saw a significant increase in their home value and net worth. I am simultaneously thrilled for all of my past clients who have bought homes and are feeling good about these trends... and depressed for all of my clients who have not been able to purchase a home and are now faced with much higher purchase prices (and interest rates) in today's market. But back to that leveling off thing... ![]() This graph shows that home sales (blue line) are starting to level off and inventory levels (green line) are starting to stabilize and increase a bit. If there continue to be slightly fewer buyers in the market, and slightly more sellers in the market, then... [1] Home buyers might have a slightly easier time securing a contract on a home they hope to purchase. [2] We might see a slightly smaller increase in the price of homes over time. Read that twice, please. I'm not currently anticipating a decline in prices, but rather, a slightly smaller increase in prices. I don't hit on this every month, but it can be helpful to realize that we have seen a pretty good sized increase in the number of new homes being built and sold in this area... ![]() This graph is showing the number of new detached home sales per year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This does not include attached home sales... which would would be duplexes or condos. After averaging 83 new home sales per year between 2018 and 2020, we saw a significant increase in 2021 to 144 new homes... and thus far in 2022, that is a total of 163 new home sales. Many, but not all, of these new detached home sales have been in Ryan Homes communities. It will be interesting to see how new home sales and resale homes track over the next few years especially within the context of higher mortgage interest rates. Now, a peek into the near future... ![]() In each of the past five months (purple arrows) we have seen fewer contracts signed than were signed in the same month last year. This probably doesn't surprise anyone who has been paying attention to changes in mortgage interest rates. Ever higher interest rates have changed the potential mortgage payment for buyers, which is definitely impacting how many potential buyers are capable of buying or interested in buying. Multiple (five) months of lower levels of contract activity means that we will continue to see lower levels of closed sales over the next few months... which is why I expect we'll see a slower fourth quarter of home sales this year as compared to last year. And after years of saying inventory levels are down, now we see that... ![]() Inventory levels are actually rising a bit. When looking at two years ago compared to one year ago we see about a 20% decline in inventory levels. When looking at one year ago compared to today we see about a 20% increase in inventory levels. Today's inventory levels are still *very* low compared to historical norms, but buyers today seem happy to have slightly more choices of homes for sale, or to see homes sticking around on the market for slightly longer before going under contract. Though... about that time on market trend... ![]() Over the past 12 months, the median number of days it took for homes to go under contract once listed for sale was... five days! We first hit that low (low!) level of a median of five days back in July 2021, and we have been hanging out at that same level ever since. Interestingly, I suspected that if I looked at a shorter, more recent, timeframe that I would find that it is taking homes longer to go under contract. With that theory in mind, I looked at the median days on market over the last 30 days and it was... still five days. So, the market (overall) seems to still be moving very quickly with half of new listings that go under contract doing so in five or fewer days. And finally, a visual to show you how quickly mortgage interests have been rising... ![]() A year ago, mortgage interest rates were right around 3%. Six months ago, mortgage interest rates were right around 4.7%. Now, today, they are all the way up to 6.7%. As you might imagine, this increase in mortgage interest rates significantly affects a buyer's mortgage payment - and potentially their ability to purchase the home they might hope to purchase. So where does all of this leave us? Despite what may be going on in other real estate markets around the state or the country, here's what seems to be true in our local market at this moment in time... [1] Contract activity and home sales has slowed in the second half of 2022, though the highly active first half of 2022 is still keeping us on track with 2021 thus far. [2] Higher mortgage interest rates are affecting buyer behavior which is often resulting in fewer showings and fewer offers. [3] Despite the points mentioned above, homes are still going under contract very quickly and home prices keep on rising. As you look ahead to the remainder of fall, and into the winter months, if you're thinking about buying a home, or selling a home, we should chat about how things are going in your segment of our local market as it relates to the property type, price, size, location and age of your home. I'll check in on the market again in about a month, but until then, enjoy your fall days, and best of luck to anyone else running in the Harrisonburg Half Marathon this Saturday! | |
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Should You List Your Home Now Or Wait Until Spring? |
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![]() Now or Later? Now! :-) I mean... don't get all panicky about it... but I would definitely recommend listing your home now, rather than waiting until the spring. Oftentimes homeowners who might sell in fall or might sell in the spring decide that they might as well wait until spring. I think this year is or should be different for homeowners who aren't sure whether to sell now or wait until spring. Yes, interest rates are high right now, but inventory levels are still low, homes are selling quickly, and at great prices. [1] Interest rates might have come down some, but they may also be just as high or higher. [2] Inventory levels could quite possibly be higher (more competition) if the market slows over the next six months. [3] Homes may not be selling as quickly. [4] Home prices might be even higher in six months, but they could also have flattened out or declined a touch. I am not predicting a major change in the state of our local housing market... and I am not saying that the sky is falling... and I don't think the local housing market is going to be much worse six months from now... ...but, I think the calculus on whether to sell in the fall or to wait until spring is a bit different this year, and some homeowners that might have normally waited until spring should probably consider listing their homes this fall instead. Just a thought. What are your thoughts? | |
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Another Visual Of A Slightly Slowing Pace Of Home Sales |
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![]() I usually look at the pace of home sales each month, which shows quite a movement up and down as some months are surprisingly slow and some are surprisingly active. I also usually examine the annual pace of home sales to see how home sales are trending from a long term perspective, though this view of the data is very slow to reveal any shorter term trends. Upon a recommendation from a reader, I have created the graph above that averages the three most recent months of sales in order to smooth out the monthly data but get faster insights into trends than the annual data can provide. Thus... The August 2022 data point is the average of June, July and August home sales. The July 2022 data point is the average of May, June and July home sales. Etc., etc. A few things, then, to point out on the graph above... [0] There are plenty of normal season trends illustrated on this graph. For example, home sales are typically lowest in the first quarter of the year, accelerate through the second and third quarter and then decline in the fourth quarter. This happens most years. [1] The green line (2019) took a nose dive in the second half of the year due to the uncertainty and anxiety of a pandemic sending many people home to work, for school and more. [2] As shown on the yellow line, things were rocking and rolling again by mid 2020 as buyers were snapping up houses as fast as they could because "home" was so important during the pandemic and because of rock bottom interest rates. [3] Looking at the red line (2022) we see that home sales activity was setting new records all the way through June 2022... though that data point is an average of April, May and June. [4] Now that we're into August, we have seen a slight decline in home sales activity as compared to 2021. We are still well above 2020 and 2019 at this point. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of 2022 plays out. It seems unlikely that the market will be as active as it was in the last five months of 2021. | |
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Are Home Prices Rising Because Larger Homes Are Selling? |
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![]() When you see a 12% increase in the median sales price between 2021 and 2022 you might wonder if it is just a result of larger homes selling this year than last. It's a reasonable question, and a relatively straightforward one to investigate... The graph above shows... BLUE LINE = median sales price of single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County GREEN LINE = median price per square foot of those same single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County If the 12% increase in the median sales price could best be understood as a collective increase in the size of homes being sold, we would see an increase in the median price per square foot that was smaller than 12%. In fact, over the past year, the median price per square foot has increased by 13%, right alongside the median price increasing by 12%. So, this significant increase in sales prices does not seem to be attributable to larger homes selling. | |
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Home Prices Keep Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Despite Slightly Fewer Home Sales |
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![]() Greetings, and Happy Tuesday morning, friends! Would you believe it if I told you we're 70% of the way through 2022!? It's hard to believe, I know, but indeed, we only have about 30% of the year to go. Would you believe it if I told you I am now old enough to be the dad of an adult!? It's hard to believe, I know, but Luke recently celebrated his 18th birthday. Shaena and I are tremendously proud of the man he is and is becoming and we're excited to see what is in store for him in the coming years. Happy 18th, Luke! :-) ![]() This Month's Featured Home... The upscale rowhouse on the cover of this month's market report is one of the original lakefront rowhouses at Preston Lake, and you can find out more about this beautiful property by visiting 3313PrestonShoreDrive.com. Another of My Favorite Places... Each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places (or things) in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Village Juice & Kitchen, Black Sheep Coffee and the Harrisonburg Half Marathon. This month I'm highlighting the JMU Forbes Center for the Performing Arts which is the premier destination for arts in the Shenandoah Valley with countless top notch musical, dance and theatrical performances each year. Have you been to a show at the Forbes Center? Would you like to? I'm giving away a pair of tickets to what is bound to be a hilarious show at the Forbes Center... "Whose Live Anyway?" featuring current cast members of the Emmy-nominated television show "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" for 90 minutes of hilarious improvised comedy and song. The show is on Friday, September 30 at 8:00 PM. Enter here for a chance to win this pair of tickets. And now, let's take a look at the latest news from our local real estate market... ![]() First off, let's get right to it... we saw significantly fewer home sales this August as compared to last August. We've been in "always more, every month more" mode for so long when it comes to home sales that it might seem jarring to see a 19% drop in August home sales, but it is important to realize that we couldn't necessarily always see more and more home sales forever and ever. We have seen an extraordinarily high amount of home sales activity over the past two years. Those home sales levels may have been inflated beyond the norm, so we may see a downward shift in the number of homes selling per year as we finish out 2022 and enter 2023. This isn't a catastrophe and it does not necessarily mean we will see any adjustments in home values and sales price in this area. In fact, in the "this is not a catastrophe" category, when we move beyond #1 above, where we see a 19% decline in August home sales, we'll also find... [2] The pace of home sales during the first eight months of this year are still slightly (0.65%) ahead of last year during those same eight months. Though, if home sales activity continues to be a bit slower through the rest of 2022, we should expect the annual pace of sales in 2022 to eventually fall behind 2021 levels. [3] The median sales price this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County ($298,950) is 11% higher than it was last year during the same first eight months of the year when it was $269,000. [4] When looking at a full year of data (September through August) we find that there has been a 9% increase in the median sales price over the past year, from $264,900 up to $289,900. [5] Homes are still selling just as fast as last year... with a median "days on market" of five days. So, while the number of homes selling might be slipping a bit compared to last year, prices are still rising, and homes are still selling very quickly. Now, let's break things up a bit by detached homes (green) and attached homes (orange) below... ![]() This chart pull a few things out that provide some helpful comparisons... [1] There have been slightly more detached home sales this year (734) as compared to last year (722) for a total increase of 1.66%. This has been accompanied by a year-to-date increase of 12.59% in the median sales price of those detached homes. [2] There has been a slight decline in the number of attached home sales this year (348) as compared to last year (353) for a total decrease of 1.42%. This has been accompanied by a larger, 12.13%, increase in the median sales price of those attached homes. So... we're seeing a slight uptick in single family home sales and a slight downturn in townhouse / duplex / condo sales... though the median prices of both property types are increasing. Finally, slicing and dicing the data one more time to compare the City and County, here's what we find... ![]() Here's what pops out to me in the chart above, when looking at a full year (Sep - Aug) of data... The pace of home sales has slowed a bit (-3%) in the City (#1) while the pace of County home sales (#2) has increased slightly (+2%). The median sales price has increased by double digits (+11%) in the City (#3) while the median sales price in the County (#4) has increased by a slightly lower amount (8.3%). So, again, lots of home sales at high prices in the City and County... but the pace of sales is slightly more robust in the County, and price increases are slightly higher in the City. Now, the summer that makes you say: Nice! Yikes! Hmmm... ![]() It was a wild summer in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market... JUNE = NICE! We saw an incredible number of home sales in June 2022. The 188 home sales this past June was the highest single month of home sales in many, many years! JULY = YIKES! After sky high home sales in June, we saw the slowest month of July home sales in at least three years. July 2022 home sales weren't drastically lower than the previous few years but it was surprising (yikes!) to go from the "best June in 3+ years" to the "worst July in 3 years." AUGUST = HMMM... Home sales this past month were markedly lower than last August, with a 19% decline from 184 home sales to 149 home sales. But... home sales this August were still higher than in August 2019 and 2020. So... were home sales surprisingly slow this August? Or do they just look slow compared to a surprisingly active month last August? At this point it can be helpful to stack all of those months of home sales on top of eachother to look at things from a broader perspective... ![]() Here you can more clearly see that 2022 year-to-date home sales are barely sticking in the race with 2021. Yes, we have seen slightly more home sales thus far in 2022 than in 2021 (and than in the previous few years) but we're barely ahead now. It seems quite likely that the year-to-date pace of home sales will fall behind as we get through September and October of 2022, especially when we examine contract activity below. So, if you haven't picked up on it yet, it seems the rapid growth in the number of home sales we have been experiencing lately might be starting to... level off... ![]() During the height of Covid (2020-21) we saw an ever-increasing number of home sales on an annual basis, seemingly due in large part to the size and shape of "home" being more important than ever as people were spending more time at home during the pandemic... and because of historically low interest rates. Now, however, many of life's patterns (actually going to work, actually going to school) seem to be returning... and mortgage interest rates (if you haven't heard!?) are quite a bit higher than they were a year ago. So, it seems very unlikely that we will continue to see rapid growth in the annual pace of home sales like we saw between August 2020 and August 2021, and it seems more likely that we will see a leveling off, or even a slight slowdown, in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County each year. All of this, though, is related to the orange line above... the number of homes selling. Quietly, in the background, the median sales price (green line) just keeps on rising, and rising. The unknown, at this point, is whether we will see home prices start to level out at all. Thus far, they are continuing to rise quite rapidly. Speaking of rising prices, here's a graph that will put these price increases in context pretty quickly... ![]() In just four years (2018-2022) the median sales price of a single family home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased by almost $100,000... from $228,000 to $326,500! What a great time to have owned a home... and what a tough time to buy one now if you haven't owned a home for the past few years to be a part of a joyful ride up the roller coaster of home values. Here's another graph that provides further evidence of the likelihood that we will continue to see the market slow down when it comes to the number of homes selling... ![]() I've drawn the arrows above to show where I think things have been going and are going... Top Arrow = slight, slow, decrease in the number of buyers buying Bottom Arrow = slight, slow, increase in the number of sellers selling as it relates to active inventory at any given time So, indeed, the market may be transitioning a bit. A few fewer buyers are buying and a few more sellers are selling. These dynamics are turning our market, ever so slightly, towards a slightly less strong seller's market. But, yes, still a strong seller's market. Several times in this synopsis I have spoken about home sales slowing and referenced that I anticipate a further slowdown in the next few months. Here's why... ![]() The graph above is showing us contract activity per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... counting how many homes go under contract each month. Last summer (the first set of 1, 2, 3) there were 143, 156 and 155 contracts signed for a total of 454 contracts. This summer (the second set of 1, 2, 30) there were 135, 114 and 135 contracts signed for a total of 384 contracts signed. So, indeed, fewer contracts for several months in a row has already started to translate into fewer home sales, and will continue to do so for at least another month or two in the future. With slightly fewer buyers buying are we seeing inventory levels starting to rise? Slightly... ![]() A year ago there were 129 homes on the market for sale at this time... and that has risen, slightly, to 147 homes for sale. So, yes, we are seeing somewhat of an overall increase in the number of homes for sale... but not by that much. And... from a shorter term perspective, inventory levels are currently trending down as they usually do as we move from summer into fall. Finally, one last graph for a bit of AHHHHH and GRRR... ![]() From the end of last summer (Aug 2021) through early 2022 we saw a rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. They rose from less than 3% up to over 5% in only eight months. Ahhhhh!!! Over the past few months, mortgage interest rates have shown they might not get all the way to 6%, but they haven't made their way back down to, or below 5%. Grrr... Comparably higher mortgage interest rates (as compared to the past few years) continue to have an impact on how many buyers are able to, or are willing to, buy a home right now... and it doesn't seem that these higher interest rates will be leaving us as quickly as they showed up. So... in summary... [1] The pace of home sales seem to be slowing, slightly, though 2022 is still ahead of 2021 at this point. [2] Contract activity is slowing, slightly, which means closed sales will also continue to slow. [3] Home prices continue to rise rapidly. [4] Inventory levels are rising, slightly. [5] Mortgage interest rates are still quite high. If you're thinking about buying a home, or selling a home, let's talk about how things are going in your segment of the market as it relates to the price, size, location and age of your home. The first step? Email me or text/call me at 540-578-0102. I'll check in on the market in about a month, but until then, enjoy the slightly shorter, cooler days ahead! | |
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Indeed, Fewer Homes Went Under Contract This Summer Than Last |
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![]() Indeed, as is shown rather clearly above, fewer buyers signed contracts to buy homes this summer than last. When I'm talking summer, in this instance, I'm referring to June, July and August...
So, about 15% fewer contracts were signed this summer than last. Why? A large part of it is likely the higher mortgage interest rates.
But despite fewer houses going under contract this summer than last...
If mortgage interest rates remain as high as they are now, it is reasonable to assume that home buying activity will continue to be a bit subdued this fall compared to last fall. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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