News
| Newer Posts | Older Posts |
 |
 |
Home Sales Slow In February But Contract Activity Increasing |
|
 Happy Spring! Yesterday's warm sunny afternoon was a welcome reprieve from our recent frigid temperatures - and it looks like we'll have continued warm-ish (or at least not frozen) days this week as well. And how about that local real estate market? Is it heating up as well? Breaking out of the winter doldrums? Well, maybe not quite - though technically this report only covers real estate activity through the end of February, so maybe we'll have to wait one more month for some more exciting news. But buckle up, and let's flip through the latest local real estate news to catch up on where things have been and where we're likely headed. Oh - but two quick notes, first:
And now, here we go...  As seen above...
 OK - lots going on above - this is where I break things down between detached homes (green) and attached homes (orange) -- where "attached" homes are townhouses, duplexes and condos.
 The red line above shows the sales trajectory for 2019 -- January sales (64) were right in the middle of the pack as January goes -- but February sales (63) were much slower (lower) than last year (81) though not too far off of the prior two years (68, 69). So - where in the world do we go from here? Do we see a relatively disappointing March with only 80 home sales (lowest since prior to 2016) or do things bounce back up to 95 or 100 home sales? Time will tell - but thus far the market performance has not been overwhelming in 2019 when it comes to the number of homes that are selling.  Now, looking beyond the month-to-month trends -- this graph (above) looks at a rolling 12 month timeframe to even out some of the ebbs and flows of market activity. The top (green) line shows that median sales prices have been relatively steady for the past six months -- hovering between $210K and $213K. The bottom (orange) line shows that the annual pace of home sales has actually been slowing in recent months. If home sales keep slowing down, eventually that could have an impact on sales prices, but for now they are holding steady. It is also certainly possible that the slowdown in home sales has more to do with a lack of available inventory than it does with any decrease in buyer interest.  Here (above) is another pretty graph to show the increasing home values in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past few years. Though - curb the boundless enthusiasm for a moment - the annual increase was only 2% in 2018, down from 5%, 7% and 5% the prior three years. So -- 2019 will be a telling year -- will values hold steady, or increase slightly, or decline slightly? Stay tuned -- it's early yet.  And this (above) might be the missing piece of the puzzle. Buyer activity (blue line) is somehow staying steady-ish (except dipping a bit over the past few months) despite the quickly falling inventory levels (green line) over the past three (four!) years. I've said it recently but I'll say it again - it can be a fun time to be a seller right now - but it's not so fun to be a buyer. You'll be choosing from an ever smaller number of available properties, and potentially competing with ever more buyers.  Here's one graph of optimism as it relates to the next few months -- contract activity is on the rise with 92 contracts signed in February 2019, up from 90 last February and 87 the February before that. So - we will likely see a solid month of sales activity in March, and hopefully in April if we have another strong month of contracts in March. But, just to prepare you pretty early here -- I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that we'll see a month with 171 contracts like we saw last May.  And here is a visualization of those inventory woes I was describing earlier. The number of homes for sale has been creeping ever lower, hitting yet another new low at the end of February with only 255 homes for sale. Hopefully, maybe, possibly, we'll see that start to drift upwards as we get into March, April and May??  If buyers have anything (anything!?) to be glad about -- it's that their mortgage rate will likely be lower now than it would have been a few months ago. After average rates drifted all the way up to 4.86% -- and seemed to be ready to get back to 5% -- they started floating back down to their current average of 4.35%. If buyer activity increases over the next few months, they'll be enjoying more affordable financing of their home purchase. OK - admittedly - that was a lot. Kudos to any of you who made it all the way to the bottom of this commentary. Many trends stay relatively similar from month to month but it's always good to take a fresh look to give us a context to help make informed real estate decisions moving forward. If you're thinking of buying or selling soon... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
 |
 |
|
|
Local Real Estate Market Holds Steady in January 2019 |
|
 I hope you are finding time to enjoy this one sunny day this week - amidst clouds, rain and snow the rest of the week. Perhaps the bright news in this update on the real estate market will buoy your spirits when the clouds return tomorrow. :-) But before we dive into the data, be sure to check out the home pictured above, an immaculate brick Colonial in Highland Park, by visiting 4105LucyLongDrive.com. Oh, and as per my usual habits, you can skip right to a PDF download of the full market report here, or read on for my color commentary...  OK - starting off with an evaluation of the market as a whole, the chart above shows us that the exact same number of buyers (63) bought in January 2019 as bought in January 2018. Thus, it was the slowest month of the year - but exactly as slow as things started last year. (1) When we look at a longer timeframe (Feb 2018 - Jan 2019) we see that 1,303 buyers bought homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which marks a 3.74% increase in buyer activity as compared to the previous year. (2) The median sales price of the homes that have sold in the past 12 months was $211,500 -- which is 5.81% higher than the median sales price during the prior year. So, perhaps prices are on the rise. Or, perhaps different homes are selling. Read on for more on this. (3) Homes are selling quickly -- QUICKLY! -- with a median "days on market" of 25 days over the past year, a 24% drop from 33 days the prior year. Now, let's break things down between detached homes and attached homes. Attached homes are townhouses, duplexes and condos...  There is a good bit to soak in here, on the chart above, as well. (1) The 942 buyers who bought detached homes over the past 12 months contributed to 5.25% more buyer activity -- for this type of property -- as compared to the previous 12 months. (2) The median sales price of those 942 detached homes was $228,000 -- a whole (not actually that exciting) 1.33% higher than the $225,000 value one year prior. (3) Talk about consistency -- 361 buyers bought attached homes (townhomes, duplexes and condos) in the past 12 months -- exactly the same number as during the previous 12 months. (4) The median sales price of those 361 attached homes was $167,811 -- a full 4.88% higher than the $160,000 value one year prior.  There it is, folks, the start of something great -- maybe? While it's true that January is the slooooowest month of the year for home sales AND this past January was the sloooooowest January seen in the past few years -- it is also true that last year was a near record breaking year of home sales, and we also started out with only 63 home sales in January 2018. So -- stay tuned -- perhaps this will be another vibrant year of sales activity for the local real estate market.  Staying steady - that's all I wish for our real estate market sometimes. The graph above shows a rolling 12 month value for the median sales price and the number of home sales taking place in our local market. You'll note that homes have been selling at a pace of around 1300-ish homes per year for the past six or so months -- and we've been hovering around the $210K-$212K mark for median sales prices. Staying steady-ish isn't too bad. I'd be happy with a 0% - 2% increase in the pace of home sales and a 2% - 3% increase in the price of home sales this year. We'll have to wait a few more months to get a better sense of if that is where we're headed.  If asked, I think home values have risen by 2% over the past year, and the graph above is why I'm sticking to that number. If you look at all home sales in the area (attached and detached) you'll come up with a higher increase in the median sales price -- but I believe the change in the median sales price of detached homes is the best indicator of trends in market value -- and there was a 2% increase in the median sales price of detached homes between 2017 and 2018. Stay tuned to see how we fare in 2019 as more data keeps coming in.  It's a great time to be a seller! As shown above, while the number of buyers in the market has stayed relatively consistent over the past (almost) two years, the number of homes on the market at any given point has continued to decline steadily. As such, this has become more and more of a seller's market. Homes are selling quickly and thus buyers must be ready to pounce on the home of their dreams when it is listed for sale. More on this at the bottom of this note.  On this graph it might be most interesting to look backwards in order to look forwards. After a predictable mid-80's month of contract activity in January, it seems likely (based on history) that we'll see around that many buyers sign contracts to buy homes in February. But after that, look out! Buyer activity usually starts in earnest in March and April, where you'll see a 45% (ish) increase in buyer activity between Jan/Feb and Mar/Apr. The big question this year would be whether we really will / could have anywhere near as stellar of a month as we had last May for contract activity. Maybe not??  It is quite possible that inventory levels have dropped just about as far as they can possibly go. Over the past year we saw a seasonal rise and fall back to a just-below-300 inventory level as we started out January and February. It seems likely we'll get back up to a 340-350 level in the summer months, but absent a large new construction development starting in the area, it seems unlikely we'll get back up to 400 homes for sale at any given point in 2019.  I said it earlier, but I'll repeat it. Homes are selling quickly! OK -- not all homes -- don't get overly distressed if your home is not under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale -- but quite a few (54%) of the homes that do sell are indeed under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. If your home is not, let's talk about why, and what we might need to do to get it under contract within the next 30 - 60 days.  Refreshingly, after staying above 4% all year long in 2018 - and rising as high as 4.86% in October - they finally started to decline again and have continued to do so over the past few months. We're not back (barely) under 4.5% which is a nice relief for buyers in the near term. I'll pause there now, and commend any of you voracious readers of market updates who made it this far. :-) Read even more (!!) in the full PDF here, or feel free to shoot me an email with your thoughts, perspectives or questions on the market. And finally, a few quick links for you if you are thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Harrisonburg Year End Housing Market Report Shows Increases in Sales and Prices |
|
 Happy Cold and Snowy January - and Happy New Year! Before we look back at a summary of our local real estate market in 2018, take a few minutes to explore the featured home pictured above, a spacious four bedroom home with views on a private cul-de-sac street at 3931DixieRidgeRunRoad.com. As per the norm, you can find a PDF of my full market report here. And now, let's take a thorough look at the overall performance of our local housing market in 2018...  Overall, 2018 was a great year for the local housing market. Here are some key takeaways from December and the full year of 2018...
 The City of Harrisonburg has been a particularly interesting market over the past year, as detailed above. Home sales increased 9.29% between 2017 and 2018, accompanied by a 6.89% increase in the median sales price (up to $190K) and home sold with a median days on the market of only 13 days! Homes went under contract quickly in the City of Harrisonburg last year -- and that seems likely to continue into 2019 given continued high buyer demand and low inventory levels.  Home sales have bounced back and forth (up and down) over the past few months in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. August, September and November were low to average as compared to the same month in previous years -- but October was a new high (120) and sales bounced back in December to a high-ish pace which helped round out an overall strong year of sales.  Just another look at the pace of home sales, above, for those (like me) who prefer pretty data visualizations. We came so (so) close to matching the 1,313 sales seen in 2016. And yes, we bounced back from the slight dip we saw in 2017. What, then, might be in store for 2019? Another 1,300+ year of home sales? I think so -- but we shall see!  OK - a few IMPORTANT things to note here. Despite the fact that the overall median sales price for residential properties increased 7% in 2018 -- I don't believe home values increased 7%. Much of the 7% increase in the overall median sales price was a result of a larger number of (higher priced) detached homes selling in 2018 (as compared to 2017) and a smaller number of (lower priced) attached homes selling. This graph (above) then becomes important, as it shows the trend for detached homes only -- which is often a better indicator of changes in market value. You'll note that we saw a 6% increase in the pace of detached home sales and a 2% increase in the median value. So -- if you own a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, it is likely that the value of that home increased 2% over the past year. Oh -- and I should point out that last year's median sales price of $228,000 for detached homes is THE HIGHEST median sales price we have ever seen on an annual basis in this market.  As shown above, we have seen a steady stream of buyers in the market over the past two years -- fluctuating from 620-ish to 660-ish in a six month period. Unfortunately for those buyers, however, they have had an smaller and smaller number of homes from which to choose. The number of sellers in the market -- as measured by inventory levels on a monthly basis -- has steadily decreased over the past two years. These two trends have combined to create an increasingly strong seller's market in Harrisonburg and Rockinhgham County.  OK - this one is interesting - and I believe it is a sign of a healthy-ish real estate market. As shown via variety of graphs above, home sales are up, inventory is down, days on market is down -- and yet, the median sales price seems to have only increased by 2%. So - the strong seller's market has not (thank goodness!) resulted in irrational, unreasonable, unsustainable increases in sales prices. That said, sellers are negotiating less and less (as shown directly above) from their last list price. I say "last" list price because some sellers don't start with the best list price out of the gate, and have to reduce their list price. But in the end, sellers are negotiating less (around 1%) than they have in any recent year.  For the purposes of at least a small sneak peak ahead -- we saw only a small number of contracts (62) in December -- which is to be expected in this first month of Winter. We're likely to see a small number of contracts in January and February as well, if past years are any indicator, before home sales (contracts) start to pop again in March.  And there (above) are those low inventory levels I was referencing. In fact, the 269 properties currently listed for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is THE LOWEST inventory level we have ever seen in this area. So -- perhaps the small-ish (4%) year-over-year decline is an indication that we're getting about as low as we possibly can/could/will in this market.  As one might expected, different price ranges are performing differently in our local market. The pace of home sales in the "under $200K" market continues to decline -- likely a result of properties appreciating out of this price range. We saw a sizable increase (+16%, +14%) in the middle market segments of $200K-$300K and $300K-$400K, and the largest increase in the $400K+ price range where home sales have increased 33% over the past year.  Another sign of health in our local real estate market is the ever declining number of foreclosures taking place. As shown above, there were only 85 foreclosures in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County last year -- a 37% year-over-year decline.  One last note -- we have seen a decline over the past few months in the average mortgage rate, which is exciting for buyers currently signing contracts to buy homes. We spent all of 2018 above 4% and we seemed to be quickly climbing towards 5% between August and October -- but the last few months of the year we saw things turn around and we are back closer to (or even below in some cases) 4.5%. OK - that wraps up my year-end overview of the state of our local housing market. I went into a bit more detail than usual this month -- though there is still PLENTY more in my full market report. You can download a PDF of the entire report here. And finally, a few quick links for you if you are thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Very Few Homes For Sale in the City of Harrisonburg |
|
 The number of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg keeps dropping. That's not to say that homes aren't selling -- a total of 423 homes have sold in the City of Harrisonburg during the first 11 months of the year -- putting us at a pace of 38 home sales per month. But the number of homes available to buyers continues to decline -- now down to 70 homes for sale. Here's a bit longer of a context....
If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg it might be difficult to find a home that is a perfect fit or you given a very limited supply of homes for sale. And when a home does come on the market that works for you, it is likely to sell quickly. | |
|
|
|
|
Despite Slower November, Home Sales Still Stronger Than Last Year |
|
 Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home by visiting 819GreenbriarDrive.com. Now, on to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... VIDEO OVERVIEW: Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market. Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...  As we can see above...
 This has been a bit of an odd year, as shown above. We have seen quite a few months of new "highs" for monthly home sales. They aren't all shown above, but you can see that June, July and October were the highest such months in the past several years. But then you have months such as November -- where we fell to one of the lower such months of sales in recent years. So -- what about December? I'll guess we'll end up around 90 or so home sales -- maybe 95 -- or even 100?  This graph shows each month of home sales stacked upon the previous months -- and you can see that we're beating every recent year except 2016 when you look at home sales through November -- shown in a light brown color. It seems almost certain that we'll beat the 1,261 total we saw last year -- but will we get up to 1300 home sales this year? We'd need 99 home sales in December!  As I have mentioned in a few recent market reports -- the 7% (or so) increase that we're seeing in the median sales price for all residential sales might not mean that homes are selling for 7% more than they were last year. That 7% rise seems to be more a result of a greater number of (higher priced) single family homes selling in 2018 as compared to how many sold in 2017. Read more about this phenomenon here. That said, the graph above might give us a better idea of value trends -- where we see that the median sales price of single family homes has increased 2% over the past year.  It's a good time to be a seller right not -- and not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. As shown above, the supply of buyers is steady -- with right around 650 buyers buying in a six month period. But at the same time, the number of sellers (and their homes) in the marketplace keeps on declining -- giving those buyers fewer and fewer options from which to choose.  Hmmm -- 99 home sales in December might not be completely realistic after all. As shown above, only 72 buyers (and sellers) signed contracts in November 2018. This, combined with some lingering October contracts, means we're probably more likely to see 80 - 90 home sales in December. And -- for you current or near future sellers out there -- buyer activity is likely to stay a bit lower over the next few months. A strong surge of buyers is likely to return in March.  Well -- we dropped below 300 homes for sale again this month -- and we're likely to dip a bit lower as we move through December, January and February. Last year it took until March to rise above 300 homes for sale. So -- if buyers don't want to buy in the Winter, it seems that sellers also might not want to sell.  Unless you're paying cash -- it will cost you more (in your monthly housing payment) to buy a house now as compared to a year ago. The average mortgage interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has risen almost an entire percentage point (from 3.90% to 4.81%) over the past year. It ticked down slightly in November -- and hopefully we'll (somehow?!) stay below 5% as we roll into the new year. I'll pause there, for now. As usual, you can download the full report as a PDF, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market And a few tips for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales Rise Yet Again In October 2018 |
|
 Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home in Highland Park by visiting 4350BrownRoanLane.com. Now, on to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... VIDEO OVERVIEW: Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market. Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...  As shown above --
Now let's look at the monthly home sales visually...  This past June and July were stellar months of home sales -- with the highest sales level seen in the past three years. Then, sales fell in August and September, and it was seeming that rising interest rates might have finally started to affect buyer behavior. But then, October. We saw a sharp increase in home sales in October -- the strongest month of October home sales in the past several years. So -- where do we go from here? Will we have the best November of late? Or will we slip back into the middle of the pack? Regardless of how November goes, it seems 2018 will be a strong year...  We've seen 1,117 home sales in the first ten months of 2018 -- this is the strongest first ten months of the year seen anytime in the past six years, not all of which are shown above. It seems, thus, that we're likely to get back up to a 1300/year pace of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Can it happen? What is your prediction?  As mentioned earlier, even though the market-wide median sales price has increased 9% in 2018 -- that is not an indication that home values are up 9%. There are more single family homes selling this year than last, which is affecting the overall median sales price. The graph above, then, is a reasonable substitute for understanding value trends in our local market. When we look only at single family homes (not duplexes, townhouses or condos) we see that the median sales price has increased 2.4% over the past year. This seems much more sustainable than a 9% increase.  In some ways, it is surprising that home values aren't increasing more than they are. We have been in an increasingly strong seller's market for the past two years -- with more and more buyers fighting over fewer and fewer seller's homes on the market at any given point. Certainly, "enough" sellers are selling -- as the total number of closed sales is increasing -- but strong buyer activity is keeping overall listing inventory down at most times of the year.  Why do I think we'll finish out the year with 1300 or so home sales? Partly because of the strong month of contract activity seen in October. A total of 111 contracts were signed in October, most of which should turn into closed sales by the end of the year. As a side note, winter is coming. Contract activity is likely to slow over the next four months.  And there are those inventory levels -- low and getting lower. We've seen an 11% decline in the number of homes on the market over the past year -- and inventory levels didn't rise all that much during the Spring / Summer markets this year. So, basically, as fast as sellers are listing their homes, buyers are snapping them right up -- in most price ranges, in most locations, etc., etc.  And finally -- mortgage interest rates. Most folks don't pay with cash -- they finance part of their home's purchase price -- and it is getting more expensive to do so these days. We have seen a 23% increase (from 3.94% to 4.86%) in the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate over the past year. This means that today's buyers are paying more per month than they would have last year, for the same home, even before we start calculating how that sales price would have increased over the past year. I'll pause there, for now. As usual, you can download the full report as a PDF, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market And a few tips for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
The Citizen, A New Source for Local News |
|
 Have you heard of The Citizen yet? This is a new online news source for Harrisonburg. Here's a bit more from their site... "The Citizen is an independent source of news for the people of Harrisonburg, Virginia. Our goal is to tell the important and interesting stories that are otherwise un- or under-covered in our community. We will report aggressively and fairly on behalf of everyone who lives here, and will not place any content behind a paywall. The Citizen is funded by local advertisers and readers who support its mission." Articles to date include:
Read it all over at The Citizen! | |
|
|
|
|
Are Local Home Sales Prices Actually 8 Percent Higher This Year Than Last? |
|
 I'm going to say yes, but no, and mostly no. Keep reading -- this is important, as it can give us an indication of whether our local housing market is heating up too quickly. OK -- at first glance, it would seem that home prices have increased 8.42% over the past year...  But let's look closer -- breaking home sales down into two categories...
Here's where things get confusing -- if the median sales prices of all properties has increased 8.42%, why are we only seeing a 3% (+/-) increase in each of the two categories?   So, wait, what? Single family home sales prices are up 3.03% this year -- and duplex/townhouse/condo sales prices are up 3.77% this year -- but when you throw all of the data together it somehow appears as if prices have risen 8.42% over the past year??!!?? How can this be?? It turns out it's all about how many of each type of property are selling...  As shown above -- last year only 70% of home sales were single family homes, with 30% being duplex/townhouse/condo sales. This year, that ratio has shifted, and 75% of home sales have been single family homes, with only 25% being duplex/townhouse/condo sales And therein lies the answer. When single family homes sell for around $230K and duplexes/townhouses/condos sell for around $165K -- if there is a shift in how many of each property type sells (relative to the other) then the median sales price for the combined ALL residential sales will adjust more than sales prices of each property type are actually adjusting. So -- Sellers: You are likely to be able to sell your home for 3% more than you would have last year -- NOT 8% more. Buyers: You are not being expected to pay 8% more for homes this year than last. Everybody: Let's not be disappointed that we're not seeing an 8% increase in home prices -- let's be happy with 3%. An annual increase of 3% is (historically) normal, and seems to be quite sustainable. An annual increase of 8% (especially if back to back with another similar year) would likely mean that home sales prices are adjusting upwards too quickly and they may have to come back down at some point. So -- good news, bad news, but in my book, mostly good news! Home prices have risen 3% over the past year -- not 8%. | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales Slow Slightly in September But Prices Still On The Rise |
|
 Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home in Stone Spring Village by visiting 1520AppleRidgeCourt.com. Now, on to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... VIDEO OVERVIEW: Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market. Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...  As shown above...
 Looking backwards a bit -- the crazy months of sales we saw in June and July of this year were a bit unusual -- way out of the norm. The slower months of sales seen in August and September were much more "normal" -- even if a bit slower than usual.  Two years ago was a rock star of a year of real estate sales. After only 1,125 home sales in 2015 -- the local market saw a huge increase to 1,313 home sales in 2016. And then -- 2017 -- darn, we slipped a bit. It's hard to say at this point where 2018 will fit into the mix. I am guessing we'll beat last year's 1,261 home sales -- but probably won't make it all the way up to 2016 levels.  So -- as shown above with a green line -- sales prices have sort of been escalating a bit lately. Less than a year ago we had just cleared a $200K median sales price -- and now we're way up to $212K. Hmmm -- doesn't seem sustainable. What gives? Read on.  If we dial it back a bit and just look at single family homes (not duplexes, condos, townhouses -- all of which are prime real estate investor targets) we see a much (!!) more modest increase in the median sales price. An increase from $225K to $229K over a one year period seems to be a much more reasonable increase in the local median sales price -- and one that seems like it could be sustainable. This calms my nerves a bit after having seen that sharp rise in the overall median sales price.  So -- how's the market, you might ask? Pretty balanced? Not at all! There are a steady flow of buyers in the local market -- and an ever smaller group of sellers. We desperately need some new sellers in the market -- preferably who aren't also buying -- which often will mean we need to see some new construction.  Looking ahead, we might see a bit of a pop in October home sales after all! September contracts were strong -- and markedly higher than last September. In fact, contracts over the past year (1316) were a good bit higher than the previous 12 months (1256). October sales figures might look better than expected!  And here is that inventory issue - visualized slightly differently. Today's buyers have 18% fewer choices as compared to a year ago -- and 39% fewer choices as compared to two years ago! What is a buyer to do these days? I'll pause there, for now. As usual, you can download the full report as a PDF, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market And a few tips for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Who Bought (Or Sold) What For What? |
|
 Looking for information about recent property transfers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Be sure to check out HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. Of note...
You can also subscribe to receive these updates by email. Just complete the form at the top of HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. | |
|
|
|
|
Local Home Sales and Prices Surge in July |
|
 First, learn more about this fantastic home (my dad's house), via a 3D Walk Through and more by visiting 3120PrestonLakeBoulevard.com. Now, back to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...  Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...  As shown above, it has been an exciting month -- and year -- in our real estate market...
 OK -- this one is a random snippet. Above you will find a STARTLING statistic about the housing market in the City of Harrisonburg -- not including Rockingham County. When we look at all homes that sold in the past 12 months, in the City, half of them were under contract within 14 days of being listed for sale! Wow!  Back to the big picture -- June 2018 home sales (all 174 of them) was the third highest month of home sales we have ever seen in our local market -- topped only by two summer months back in 2005 and 2006. I thought we'd see home sales drop off in July, as a result, but we had the best month of July sales in recent years -- with 127 home sales! Next month I'm not expecting we'll pop back up to August 2016 levels -- we're more likely to be in the 120 - 130 range for sales in August.  August, oh August, that magical month. Last year at this time (end of July) we had seem more home sales (in 2017) than during that same timeframe the prior year (2016). And then, August. After August passed, 2017 never caught back up -- and ended up being a slower year than 2016 when all sales were accounted for. So -- what will happen this August? Will we keep on pace with 2017? Or even with 2016? Will we fall behind again? Stay tuned.  When I see the YTD market-wide median increasing by 10%, I get a bit worried -- wondering if these are sustainable increases. Then, however, when I look at single family home sales alone, I am (at least a bit) reassured. You'll note that thus far the median sales price has increased only 4.2% between 2017 and 2018. This is much more in line with (or close to) long-term historical averages, and makes me think that the strong seller's market might not be leading to unsustainable price increases. Why, might you ask, is the single family detached market a better indicator of changes in market value? Mainly because it is not as easily affected by the number of investors engaging in our market. When the market gets hot we often see lots of investors buying properties -- often townhouses or other attached dwellings -- which can affect price trends. Most single family home purchases are made by folks who actually intend to live in the properties.  Which would you rather do, buy or sell in the current market? The answer should be "sell" -- given the strong seller's market we're currently experiencing. A few things to note above -- first, there are still plenty more buyers in the market than there are sellers. Second, the number of sellers in the market continues to decline (and decline, and decline). Third, after a brief slow down in buyer activity, the pace seems to be increasing again.  What comes next for our local market? Looking at contract activity (above) we can see the pop in May 2018 that lead to a wild month of June sales. Looking, then, at July -- we actually see a sizable increase from last July -- so maybe we'll have a stronger than expected month of sales in August after all!?  If you're buying soon, you might have already passed the time in our local market cycle when you would have the most options from which to choose. That's not to say that plenty of new listings won't be coming on the market in the next 30 / 60 / 90 days -- they will -- but inventory levels have likely peaked and will start to decline as we (eventually) head into Fall and Winter.  Lastly, how about those interest rates? We were actually close to 4.5% about 20 months ago -- but then dropped below 4% again. Now, over the past year, we have seen steady increases to where we are currently hovering around 4.5%. I have not seen this playing a major role in whether buyers are willing and able to buy -- but I do wonder if buyer activity (or interest or capability) would start to be affected if the interest rates rose to 5% or 5.5%. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market One last note for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Local Home Sales, and Prices, Soar in June 2018 |
|
 Learn more about this fantastic home in Massanutten Resort: 127FortRoad.com. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...  OK -- now, let's take a look at some of the overall market indicators this month...  As shown above...
 Wow! Just wow! The 165 sales seen in June 2018 is the highest seen any time in the past several years -- in fact -- it is the most sales in a single month any time in the past 10 years! I actually have data back to 2003, and the only times that we have seen more than 165 home sales in a single month have been: June 2004 (174), June 2005 (173), July 2005 (166), August 2005 (183) and June 2006 (192).  Needless to say, this is the fastest start to the year we have seen anytime in recent history. As shown above, the 639 home sales in the first half of 2018 exceeds the number seen in the first half of the past three years. Looking back further, the only times we saw more home sales in the first half of the year were in 2004 (706), 2005 (764) and 2006 (759).  As shown above, despite slowing sales over the past year-ish, median sales prices have been slowly rising -- and over the past three months have started escalating quickly -- from $200K to $210K between March 2018 and June 2018. So -- record numbers of sales, quickly rising prices -- hmmm -- something about this seems familiar. Should we be worried? Maybe, or maybe not...  The figures shown in all prior charts and graphs has been for all residential sales -- including detached homes, duplexes, townhouses and condominiums. The graph immediately above focuses only on Single Family (detached) Homes and this can often give us the truest indicator of market trends. Perhaps it is (or could be) some comfort, then, that the median sales price of these detached homes has only risen 2.4% over the past year. This may mean that the rapid increases in prices we are seeing has more to do with what is selling (property type, price range) and/or is being skewed by non-owner occupied home sales/purchases.  It is also important to note that while the number of home sales has been dropping slowly (3% decline comparing past 12 months to prior 12 months) part of that may be due to a change in market balance. It is a strong seller's market now, as there are a roughly equivalent number of buyers in the market as compared to a year ago -- with a drastically lower number of sellers in the market.  And here, folks, is the reason why we saw so many home sales this month -- it was a result of the crazy number of contracts signed last month. Last month's 171 contracts was the highest number I have seen anytime since I have been tracking these figures. Thus, slightly slower contracts in June is to be expected -- and we are likely to still see a strong month of sales in July based on some May contracts rolling over into July closings.  And here it is again -- declining inventory levels. While inventory levels have seen a seasonal increase over the past six months, there has been a net year-over-year decline of 12% in the number of homes on the market. Fewer homes for sale, with a roughly equivalent number of home buyers, has lead to a strong seller's market -- and a frustrating time for many buyers!  Perhaps because there are so many buyers fighting over each listing, homes are selling more quickly. Half of the homes that have sold in the past year have been under contract within 30 days of having been listed for sale. Again, this is not half of all properties that are listed going under contract in 30 days -- just half of those that actually do sell.  As shown above, mortgage interest rates have been increasing over the past year -- almost an entire percentage point. This has not seemed to have made a drastic difference in the pace of buyer activity (yet) and it has been nice to see these edge downward somewhat over the past few months. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market One last note for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Land for New High School Was To Be Student Housing, then Convocation Center |
|
 Have you heard Harrisonburg needs a second high school? The current (only) high school in the City is beyond capacity. As such, the City has been evaluated various pieces of land to find a suitable new site for the new high school -- and now they have made a decision. Background... Owners of median priced City homes might have to pay $26 more per month to fund new City high school So, back to the location... The parcel of land shown above is 60 acres located between South Main Street (Route 11) and Interstate 81. The City intends to purchase this land for five million dollars from JMU. But JMU has actually owned it for a few years. You see, this land was actually originally slated to be used for college student housing! More background... So... the land was originally going to house 466 apartments for college students...  And then it was to be the site of JMU's new convocation center...  And now, the site of Harrisonburg's second high school. Read today's Daily News Record article for further context... | |
|
|
|
|
More Buyers Signed Contracts in May 2018 Than In Any Other Month, Ever |
|
 To say that May 2018 was a busy month for contract signing seems to be an understatement. I have data all the way back to April 2007 -- and the number of contracts signed last month (171) seems to be the highest month of contract activity we have ever seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. It's hard to say how those contracts will show up as closings -- they will likely spread out between June and July -- so we might not have the highest month of home sales ever in June 2018. But, then again, we might. :-) Read more about our local housing market in the most recent edition of my monthly market report...  | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales Slow, Prices Pop, Contracts Climb |
|
Find out about this beautiful home at Preston Lake: 3168PrestonLakeBoulevard.com. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...  OK -- now, let's take a look at some of the basic market indicators this month...  Plenty of statistics of interest above, including...
 So, as seen above, May sales were slower than (I) expected. After the best February, March and April in recent memory -- home sales in May 2018 fell below both May 2017 and May 2016. What gives? Well, perhaps, it is just some month-to-month variation between years. Keep reading to find out why all is not lost when it comes to late-Spring and early-Summer home sales. :-)  Looking at a slightly longer timeframe, the pace of home sales in the first five months of this year is only lagging slightly behind where we were last year -- and thus putting us in second place for the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Have you heard it's a seller's market? There are fewer and fewer sellers (keep reading for details) and this has buyers fighting over properties in some price ranges (and locations) -- which has resulted in sellers needing to negotiate a bit less on their price than in years past. The median ratio between the sales price and list price is now 99%, as compared to 97% - 98% over the past five years.  Yep -- this is the crazy one! Last May we saw 133 homes go under contract -- this May there were 171!?! I'll have to check my historical archives to be sure, but I think this may be the MOST contracts we have EVER seen in a single month EVER. Wow. So -- even if we were despairing that home sales were slowing in May -- perhaps we can excitedly look forward to June (and July) when these May contracts start turning into closed sales. Again -- wow!  And yes, as mentioned above, inventory levels are falling -- fewer and fewer homes are on the market available to a buyer on any given day. We have seen a 42% decline in inventory levels over the past two years -- and a 12% decline in the past 12 months. The decline is slowing -- which might mean this inventory level can only go so low -- but this is what is causing so much frustration for buyers -- and oftentimes, so much delight for sellers! :-)  Faster and faster and faster, oh my! Indeed, homes are selling even more quickly now than they were a year ago. Half of the homes that sold in the past year were under contract within 30 days of hitting the market. If you are a buyer -- be ready to act FAST!  And finally, interest rates are on the rise. :-/ It costs more to finance a home purchase now than it did a year ago. I commented to a client today that today's interest rates are still ridiculously low compared to any longer-term historical perspective, but he was quick (and wise) to point out that this fact doesn't necessarily matter much for today's buyers. Why are they going to appreciate that today's interest rates are lower than they have been for most of the past 20 years -- all they care about is that they are going to be paying more to finance their home purchase now than if they had bought six months of a year ago. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or keep reading my blog in the coming days for further commentary. One last note for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Home Prices Edge Upward As Demand Exceeds Supply |
|
 Find out about this newly listed custom home: 2550RamblewoodRoad.com. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...  Now, let's dive into some of the latest data from our local real estate market....  As shown above, it's been an interesting start to the year...
 Shining a spotlight, briefly, on the City of Harrisonburg alone (not the County) we find...
 January 2018 was a tad slow -- but then February, March and April easily outpaced the same months last year. Wow! So -- where will we go in May? Could we really see a 50% increase (from April to May) as we saw last April (100) to May (149) or will the increase be a bit more tame?  Lest we get toooo overjoyed about the fantastical pace of home sales in the first four months of this year -- I will point out that the last four months of last year also looked QUITE promising, before sales slowed down during the rest of the year to actually show a net decline in the number of home sales in 2017 as compared to 2016. So -- get excited -- slowly? Cautiously?  Sellers seem to be able to hold firm on their price a bit more this year than -- oh, I don't know -- any of the past 10 years!? Yes, that is true. Sellers negotiated anywhere between 2% and 4% off of their last list price over the past 10 years -- but so far in 2018, they have only negotiated 1% off of their last list price!  What comes next, you might ask? Well -- we generally look at the pace of contracts to have an idea of what home sales might look like in the coming month or two. So -- what do we see now? Well, curiously, this January through April 431 properties went under contract -- and -- last January through April 431 properties went under contract. So -- yes -- it seems possible that the HOT months of home sales in May and June might be seen again this year.  One of the reasons why there has been an overall decline in home sales (when looking at the past 12 moths compared to the previous 12 months) is because of declining inventory levels. There are currently 21% fewer homes on the market as compared to one year ago -- EVEN THOUGH we have seen a mini Spring surge in listings over the past few months.  And finally -- those interest rates. They seem to be on the rise, woah, quite a bit! We have seen interest rates rise three quarters of one percent over the past nine-ish months. What's next? Will we push past 4.61% and start approaching 5%? Some say so. I don't think we will, but I have been wrong plenty of times over the past 5+ years about trends in mortgage interest rates. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or keep reading my blog in the coming days for further commentary. AND -- if you're thinking of buying or selling soon --- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
|
|
|
|
Today is the Great Community Give! |
|
 Today is the day! Join me in the first of its kind "day of charitable giving" for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- aptly named, the Great Community Give. Folks throughout our community will be coming together today to financially support 50+ nonprofit agencies participating in the Great Community Give. This is our opportunity to join together as Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residents to show our love for this community. Click the link below to explore the nonprofits in our community that YOU can support today to be a part of the Great Community Give! Donate Here View the Leaderboards | |
|
|
|
|
Local Real Estate Market Starts to Pop in February 2018 |
|
 Find out about this newly listed (today!) City home at 1173PortlandDrive.com. I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...  OK -- now, let's dig into some of the main market metrics....  As shown above....
January 2018 wasn't the best January in the past few years, though it wasn't the worst either. It was in the middle of the pack, as shown above. February, however, was a strong month of sales -- jumping out ahead past the past three months of February. It seems likely we'll see between 90 and 100 home sales in March.
The graph above is actually a bit of a warning against too much exuberance over the BEST January-February combo we've seen in any recent year. Because, look carefully at last year -- you'll note that 2017 home sales were ahead of 2016 all the way through the end of July. So, for the first seven months of the year, it looked like we were poised to break even more records for the number of home sales in this area. And then in August and September of last year, we fell behind, and never caught back up. So -- it is exciting to see record numbers of sales in the combined first two months of this year -- but it in no way means that we'll see an actual increase in annual sales by the time December 31 rolls around.
Having now brought you down to earth, I'll pump you up again. :-) The 85 and then 90 contracts seen in January/February of 2018 is a nice increase from last January/February when we saw 67 and then 87 contracts. So -- the faster (closed) sales pace may at least continue into March, and maybe April given the contracts signed to date.
Oh yes, and don't forget about those sinking inventory levels. The decline in home sales we saw in our local market in 2017 is considered by many to have been at least partially caused by consistent declines in the number of homes listed for sale. We have seen inventory levels drop for the past few years -- and the 27% decline from 402 homes to 295 homes over the past 12 months certainly does not help provide enough homes for an increasing pool of buyers to purchase. We should (??!??) see an increase in these inventory levels as we get into the Spring market -- but that theoretical increase never substantially materialized last year.
All of these market trends are tied up together, intertwined and interdependent upon each other. Here is another. One out of every two homes that sold in the past year (ok -- I rounded -- 49% if you need to know) went under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. This low inventory environment is causing buyers to be extremely fast to view and then consider homes as they are listed for sale. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or keep reading my blog in the coming days for further commentary. AND -- if you're thinking of buying or selling soon --- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... Happy March! | |
|
|
|
|
Do Not Miss Harrisonburg Restaurant Week! |
|
 Straight from Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance.... Downtown Restaurants are pulling out all of the stops this week! They're serving up fresh, innovative menus and one-of-a-kind restaurant collaborations. Take a look at the menu items, meet the amazing chefs, and circle back to book a future food tour with Rocktown Bites! Learn more about Harrisonburg Restaurant Week and get downtown to enjoy it yourself!. | |
|
|
|
|
Approaching March, A Different Look For Our Local Housing Market |
|
 This is a bit of a different look for our local housing market. Ignoring last year, there have always been between 500 and 900 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County when entering into March -- the very early edge of the Spring real estate market. Last year -- that number felt low -- only 402 homes on the market in early March. This year -- low doesn't even describe it -- there are only 279 homes on the market right now. There is bound to be a surge of buyers hoping to contract on homes this March, April, May and June. What will they find as they enter into our local housing market? Very few houses for sale. And lots of competition from other buyers!!! | |
|
|
| Newer Posts | Older Posts |
Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Home Search
Housing Market Report
Harrisonburg Townhouses
Walk Through This Home
Investment Properties
Harrisonburg Foreclosures
Property Transfers
New Listings
