Monthly Market Analysis
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Special Saturday Edition: Home Sales, Prices Flying High In Harrisonburg Area |
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 Happy Saturday morning to you! I hope you had a wonderful week. I am still unwinding a bit from a great time at the Red Wing Roots music festival last weekend. I enjoyed seeing many of you there, and if you missed it this year, you should consider attending next year!  Back to the here and now, though -- I'm not sure what your weekend looks like -- but thus far mine has involved sipping coffee while my daughter and I have been drawing on our iPads. Admittedly, Emily is creating art, and I'm doodling on graphs and charts as included below - but fun times nonetheless. :-) Regardless of whether your weekend will include relaxing at home, traveling out of state to see family, heading to the beach for a week, or working in the yard -- I hope it is a weekend that includes at least some moments of fun and relaxation. When you get to a few free moments in your weekend, take a look through the remainder of this market update to learn more about what is happening in our quickly moving local real estate market. First, the full PDF of my market report can be found here, second, the featured home shown above is located at 261 5th Street in Broadway and you find details of it here, and now, let's dive in...  Quickly glancing through the numbers above, you might find your eyes opening wider than normal and your eyebrows rising higher than normal. There are some rather surprising things going on in our local housing market. Anyone who is selling their home, or trying to buy their home, knows about these dynamics -- but it's good to put some numbers to it... [1] There were 171 home sales in June 2021, which was 28% more than last June! [2] Thus far this year (we're halfway through it) there have been 736 home sales, which is 19% more than the first half of last year! [3] The median sales price in the first half of this year was $260,000 (!!) which is 11% higher the median sales price during the first half of last year which was only $235,000. [4] Over the past 12 months it has taken a median of six days for houses (that sold) to go under contract -- compared to a median of 15 days during the 12 months before that. So, yeah, lots of homes are selling, at much higher prices than a year ago, and much more quickly! Breaking it down between detached homes and attached (duplexes, townhouses, condos) homes reveals a few other details...  Above you might notice that... [1&3] There have been a 19% increase in the number of detached homes that have sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year -- but a much higher 37% increase in the number of attached homes that have sold! [2&4] The median sales price of detached homes ($285,000) has risen a bit more (14%) over the past year than the median sales price of attached homes ($200,000) which has only (haha) risen 11% over the past year. Those (above) are the long term trends. When we dial in a bit and look at things on a monthly we find that this strong increase in the number of home sales thus far in 2021 has been a month after month after month occurrence...  I have highlighted each of the first six months of 2021 in yellow above, and the corresponding month last year in gray. Now, it certainly bears noting that home sales during some of the months in the first half of last year were likely a bit lower than they would have been otherwise because of Covid, but regardless -- each month of home sales in 2021 has been head and shoulders above the corresponding month of 2020. And now, let's see how this first half of the year stacks up against the first half of the past few years... look for the dark blue bars...  As you can see, with over 700 home sales (736) in the first half of 2021 this year is well ahead of the pace of home sales in the first half of each of the past three years. Looking ahead, it currently seems quite reasonable to think that we would see 1500+ home sales in 2021, with one significant exception. Home sales were tilted towards the second half of the year last year due to Covid, so while we are seeing stronger sales in the first half of 2021 (compared to 2020) things might level out a bit when we get to comparing the second half of 2021 to an abnormally strong second half of 2020. The next visualization is still shocking to me each time I update it with another month of data...  A year ago, 1300-ish buyers were buying homes a year -- now that has risen to 1600+ buyers per year!?! Indeed, it feels like EVERYBODY wants to buy a home... because, keep in mind, this 1600+ per year figure does not include all of the would-be buyers who made offers on houses in the past year but were not successful in securing a contract to buy a house!?! Imagine if there had been enough houses on the market for all of those buyers to have bought as well... The price change (orange line above) over the past year is also somewhat of an eyebrow raiser. The median price has risen $25,000 in the past year. Thus, if you own a home, the value of that property may have very well increased $25,000 over the past year! Admittedly, this varies based on property type, location, price range, etc., -- but suffice it to say -- home values have increased quite a bit in the past year!! Now, just to keep you levelheaded this morning, the next two graphs might make you (and me) say "hmmm..." and "well, let's see what comes next"...  Above, it would appear that the pace of buyers signing contracts has dropped off considerably in June 2021!?!?! ;-) But don't worry too much -- I don't think!? The pace of contract signing in any typical March / April / May is usually quite (!!) active. Last year, buyer activity was significantly suppressed during those normally active months because of Covid -- we didn't know what was happening, what was going to happen, whether the housing market was going to slow down, etc. Then, buyer activity exploded in June of last year and remained quite strong throughout most of the remainder of the year. So, as you look at the decline in June 2021 as compared to June 2020, keep in mind that it was a very unusual June 2020. So, wait and see -- but I don't think June contract numbers mean that our local housing market is slowing down. And now, the second graph to make you say hmmm.....  Inventory levels have risen over the past month -- to the highest level in almost six months! This is somewhat interesting and surprising -- but I do also wonder whether it is temporary. I should also point out that this increase in inventory levels only takes us from super-super-super-super low inventory levels up to super-super-super low inventory levels. In the end, most buyers in most price ranges will still find very few choices of homes on the market at any given time. So, I think this is a wait and see -- as to whether we'll start seeing inventory levels rising again, or if this is a one month blip. Lastly, just to remind everyone of at least one of the reasons why so many buyers would LOVE to buy a house right now -- mortgage interest rates are phenomenally low right now...  Interest rates have been up and down over the past year, falling as low as 2.67% and rising as high as 3.17%. Clearly, though, anything under 4% still has to be described as absurdly low from any sort of a long term perspective. The cost of financing your home purchase will be very, very low if you are fortunate enough to secure a contract to buy a home in 2021. OK, that's all of the charts and graphs I have for you this morning. A few short takeaways from a big picture perspective... BUYERS: Get prequalified now, see new listings quickly, and carefully consider each contract term of your offer to make it as strong as possible. SELLERS: Prepare your home well, price it reasonably, enjoy a short period of time when you have to put up with showings, and enjoy likely being able to select from multiple offers with favorable terms. HOMEOWNERS: Enjoy knowing that your home value is increasing. :-) If you have questions about buying, or selling, or just want to tell me about the exciting plans you have for the weekend ahead -- drop me a line via email or call/text me at 540-578-0102. Otherwise, enjoy the weekend! | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales and Prices Rising Quickly In 2021 |
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 Happy Friday morning to you, friends in the Harrisonburg real estate world and beyond! It is a wild and crazy time right now in the local real estate market with many (many!) homes selling in a matter of a day or two -- often with multiple offers. It is not uncommon to have 5+ (or 10+) offers on a house within the first 48 hours of the house being listed for sale. Which means, as you might imagine, that... [1] It is a delightful time to sell! [2] It is a difficult time to buy! [3] If you need to do both, perhaps it's a wash!? Read on for some numbers and charts and graphs that can help us gain a deeper understanding of some of the current dynamics of our local real estate market -- or download my entire market report as a PDF here. First, the basic overview of how things are looking so far this year...  Several things to unpack here, actually... [1] We saw about 1% more home sales this May (the month that just ended) as compared to last May. This is actually a bit surprising. Home sales were rather sluggish last May due to Covid. As a result, I expected we'd see more home sales than we did this May. That said, the limitation on the number of home sales happening these days seems to be more in the area of how many sellers are willing to sell -- as opposed to how many buyers want to buy. So, sometimes when we see fewer homes selling -- it may simply be a result of fewer sellers being ready and willing to sell. [2] Despite only seeing a 1% increase in home sales during May, there have been 15% more home sales in the first five months of this year as compared to the first five months of last year. Thus, don't knock 2021 just yet -- we're well ahead of the pace of home sales that we saw last year. Later on I'll show you an even broader picture to see how 2021 compares to earlier years. [3] When we look at a full year of home sales there has been an impressive 19% increase in the pace of sales. There have been 1,568 home sales in the past 12 months -- compared to only 1,314 home sales in the 12 months before that! [4] Prices keep on rising! The median sales price of all homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County was $250,000 over the past 12 months -- which is a 9% increase over the median of $230,000 during the prior 12 months. [5] Homes are selling fast -- FAST! The median days on market has dropped 60% over the past year, from a median of 15 days to a median of 6 days. The median days on market is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. OK, phew, now -- onto one slight nuance that bears noting...  The chart above is comparing detached home sales (green section) to attached home sales (orange section) over the past year. While we have seen a respectable 11% increase in the number of detached homes selling -- we have seen an astonishing 42% increase in the number of attached homes selling! These attached homes are duplexes, townhomes and condos -- and a good number of those are likely new homes. Most new dwellings currently under construction are attached homes -- which contributes to the larger increase in the sale of attached homes. Here's another visual look at what was actually a somewhat surprisingly low month of home sales in May 2021...  As stated previously -- home sales in May 2021 were lower than I thought they'd be given past months of May. During May of 2018 and 2019 we saw 130 and 158 home sales -- but that dropped down to only 111 home sales in May 2020, largely due to Covid. So, yes, I was surprised to only see 113 home sales in May 2021. I expect we'll see home sales pop back up in June -- but as also stated previously, this will largely depend on enough sellers having been willing to sell! Now, let's look at the first five months of this year compared to the same timeframe for the past three years...  As shown above, we've seen 556 home sales thus far in 2021 -- which is well ahead of the pace we saw for each of the past three years. Thus, even though 2020 ended up being a wildly active year for home sales (1,493) it would seem that 2021 might be on track to surpass that pace! Buckle your seat belts -- if we're going to get there, to perhaps 1500+ home sales -- it's going to be a wild ride for the next seven months of the year. Here's a visualization of how the annual pace of home sales has been speeding up...  As I have described it above -- [1] We have seen STEADY growth in the median sales price over the past year, plus. The current median sales price of $250,000 is 9% higher than it was a year ago. [2] We have seen EXPLOSIVE growth in the pace of home sales over the past year. The current pace of 1,568 home sales a year is 20% higher than it was a year ago! Will home prices keep rising forever? Maybe so. Will the pace at which they increase start slowing? Maybe so. Here's a brief look at that dynamic just five months into the year...  When looking just at single family homes, above, we find that... In the five years before 2020 we saw between a 2% and 7% increase per year in the median sales price. On average, the median sales price increased 4.8% per year between 2014 and 2019. But then, 2020. :-) We saw a 12% increase in the median sales price of single family homes between 2019 and 2020. So, what will happen in 2021? Well, we're only five months into 2021 thus far -- AND, if you ask most active Realtors in this area, they'd likely tell you that, anecdotally, home prices seem to be accelerating even more this year than last year -- BUT, thus far we have only seen a 2% increase in the median sales price in 2021. So, stay tuned. I'll keep monitoring this as the year continues. I don't think the median sales price is going to actually flatten out or decline -- but I also don't think we'll necessarily see another 12% increase this year. OK, this next one requires a bit of thought and explanation, but bear with me...  When it comes to contracts signed per month, as shown above, here's what I'm trying to point out... [1] Last spring (March, April, May) only 375 buyers (and sellers) signed contracts. This was likely a bit slower than normal because of Covid. [2] This spring (March, April, May) things were much more active, comparatively, with 434 contracts signed. [3] Last summer (June, July, August) was extremely active -- with 495 contracts signed. This was likely somewhat the result of the market bouncing back after a slower spring. So, what's in store for summer 2021? It's hard to say if we'll have as strong of a summer as we saw last year -- and as mentioned several times thus far, a huge impact on the pace of sales, and contracts being signed, is how many sellers are ready and willing to sell. The buyers are certainly there waiting to pounce! Now, perhaps one of the most confusing and most depressing graphs...  Lots going on here in this relatively simple graph... [1] A year ago a buyer would have found 228 homes on the market for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. That end-ish of May inventory figure has tumbled 58% over the past year to where current buyers are only finding 96 homes for sale right now!? [2] Bear in mind that low inventory does not mean no options. While buyers at this exact moment have 58% fewer choices than they did a year ago -- technically, they have had about 19% more options of what to buy over the course of the past year as compared to the prior year. After all -- the 19% increase in the number of sales in the past 12 months (compared to the prior 12 months) is a result of 19% (or more) new listings having coming on the market in the past year as compared to the prior year. [3] How can this be? How can a buyer have had 19% more options over the past year but 58% fewer options today? It's a result of the how quickly homes are going under contract. Lots of new listings have come on the market over the past year but they have been going under contract faster and faster and faster, resulting in fewer and fewer and fewer homes left on the market for buyers at any given point in time. What's one of the reasons why so many buyers are buying right now?  Low mortgage interest rates are making it a very compelling time for buyers to buy right now. Even if prices are going up, interest rates are super low -- and buying with such a low interest rate allows you to lock in the largest part of your monthly housing cost (principal and interest) at a super low payment given these super low rates. Alrighty then! If you made it through all of the charts and graphs and commentary above, hopefully you are feeling like you have a relatively good understanding of some of the market dynamics affecting our local real estate markets. Now, the "so what" of all of these market dynamics... HOME BUYERS - It's definitely possible to buy a home right now, but you're going to have more competition than ever before. You need to have a lender letter in hand, see a house within the first day (or two) of it being listed for sale, be ready to make an offer very quickly, and be willing to consider paying over the asking price and limiting your contract contingencies. It's a tough market, but well prepared, decisive, strategic buyers are winning contracts on houses. HOME SELLERS - You will likely sell your home more quickly, at a more favorable price, and with more favorable terms than you would have a year ago. That said, if you do receive multiple offers within the first week of being on the market, we'll need to make sure we're picking the offer with the most favorable terms overall, that stands the best chance of making it successfully to closing. HOME OWNERS - If you love your home, or even if you just like it pretty well, great! Settle in and enjoy owning a home during a time when home values are increasing quickly and when homes are hard for buyers to buy. Just like toilet paper, swimming pools, lumber, gasoline, and cars -- houses are in short supply and are getting more expensive. Enjoy the fact that you already own one! If you're looking to connect with me to talk about buying or selling a house, perhaps this summer, feel free to reply to this email or call/text me at 540-578-0102. Until next month, I hope you are able to find some time this June to relax and enjoy this first month of summer 2021! | |
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Home Sales Up 19% In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County In 2021 |
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 Happy bright, sunny, soon-to-be-hot, Wednesday morning to you! Curious about how things are going in our local real estate market? Here's a snapshot of what now just seems like a typical day in the local real estate market... Driving To Work In The Morning: "Oh, look, that house was just listed for sale!" Driving Home From Work In The Evening: "Wait!? What!? Already under contract!?" Indeed, homes are selling FAST right now - often with multiple offers - often selling over their asking price. Feel free to download a PDF of my full market report or keep reading as I dive into the data to take a closer look at the latest trends...  As shown above...
So, if April 2021 home sales were way above April 2020, how did they compare to other recent months of April?  As shown above, this month of April -- with 117 home sales -- was the strongest recent month of April. The next strongest month of April was in 2019 when we saw 112 home sales. Looking ahead, it seems likely that we'll see somewhere between 130 and 160 home sales in May, if 2018 and 2019 are a good guide. It seems unlikely that we'll sink as low as the 111 home sales we saw in 2020 during the start of Covid. Slicing and dicing things a bit differently, this year has stacked up quite nicely compared to past years...  With 442 home sales in the first four months of this year, this is a very strong start compared to the past few years, and even most/all of the years prior that are not shown! Here's another visualization of the surge of home sales activity we have been experiencing over the past year...  The orange line above is the one that looks a bit odd right now - largely due to Covid. After seeing the annualized pace of home sales steadily increase for several years, things dropped off quickly between April and July of 2020 due to the onset of Covid. But then, things started heating up -- quickly! Home sales have been flying high, increasing ever further and faster, for the past nine months and aren't showing any signs of slowing down. Sales prices, on the other hand, didn't take a nose dive last spring -- they have been "slowly" and steadily plodding along and upward. I say "slowly" because the increase has not been at the same breakneck speed of home sales -- but we have seen a much higher than normal (9%) increase in sales prices over the past year. What should we expect over the next few months, you might ask?  We have seen many more contracts over the past two months (143, 140) than we saw during those same months last year (116, 120) though - to be fair - last March and April were an uncertain time due to Covid. The number of contracts signed over the past two months does, though, indicate that we'll see strong months of closed sales over the next two months -- and we're still at the front end of the strongest six months of the year as far as the number of homes that sell in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. So, don't expect things to slow down or calm down anytime soon! Several folks have asked me over the past month -- how can so many homes be selling when inventory levels are so low!?  Indeed, a confusing phenomenon, at first. There are fewer houses on the market right now than at any time in the past several years. Buyers today have less than 100 homes to choose from in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But -- that doesn't tell the whole story. Quite a few new listings come on the market each month -- giving buyers quite a few choices over a month long period -- but because so many of those new listings are going under contract so quickly, the influx of new listings never has a net impact on the number of houses remaining actively for sale at the end of each month. So - you won't have many options of homes to buy in a single day, but if you can give it a few weeks or months, you should have plenty of options over time. Did I mention that homes are going under contract quickly?  Over the past year, 72% of homes have gone under contract within 30 days -- and half of homes have gone under contract within 7 days!?! This rapid pace of buyers signing contracts on homes is what is keeping inventory levels so low. If you're just entering into the market to buy, you'll likely be astonished / disappointed by how few options you have right now -- but again -- just give it a bit of time and evaluate those new listings as they come on the market -- but do so quickly, before they are under contract! If you're fortunate enough to secure a contract on a house, you are likely excited about the low interest rate you'll have on your new mortgage...  After having started rising -- above 3% -- the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has dropped (barely) below 3% again. This is an outstanding (and historically low) interest rate that gives current home buyers a unique opportunity to lock in a low long term interest rate on your mortgage. So, there we have it. Lots of homes are selling, quickly, at higher prices than ever. What is a seller to do?
What is a buyer to do?
If you're thinking about buying or selling soon and would like to talk a bit more about your particular situation, I'm happy to meet with you or set up a time to chat by phone or zoom. Simply reply to this email or text/call me at 540-578-0102. Best wishes for a pleasant balance of the month of May, and I'll be in touch again in June! | |
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Home Sales Soar In First Quarter of 2021 in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Happy not-really-tax-day, friends! (taxes are due May 17 this year) What a wild first three months of the year it has been thus far in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market! Before starting to pick through the data to find some meaningful insights, here are a few general notes for you...
Now, let's dive right into the data and see what we can learn about our local housing market...  OK, some of these numbers (above) are just bonkers...
Now, then, let's take a look at a break down of detached homes (single family homes) and attached homes (duplexes, townhomes, condos)...  A few things to note when we look at this data sliced a bit differently than in the first data table... [ 1 & 3 ] While sales of detached homes increased 7% over the past year compared to the prior year, sales of attached homes increased 26% during that same timeframe. [ 2 & 4 ] The median sales price of detached homes increased 12% over the past year which is just slightly higher than the 10% increase in the median sales price of attached homes. Chopping the data up one more time by City vs. County we can note some differences as to how these two portions of our local market are performing...  The data above is just looking at where we are seeing home sales increase and by how much. Over the past year there has been a 3% increase in the number of homes selling in the City -- while there has been a 16% increase in the number of homes selling in the County. I believe this is primarily because the majority of new construction is now happening in the County -- thus those sales numbers have more of an ability to grow as compared to the City numbers where most home sales are resales. OK, next, let's visually contextualize that exciting month of March...  Indeed, March was a BUSY month of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. While I am only showing three years of data above, the file I'm working in when I create these reports includes data all the way back to 2003 when I started in real estate. There has never, in that time, been a month of March where we have had 137 or more home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Given contract data (we'll look at that a bit later) it seems likely that we will see another strong month of sales in April and May, which means the year is likely shaping up to be a year of a LOT of home sales. Which leads me to...  I put this graph together by stacking each month of home sales on top of the prior to see how each new year stacks up in comparison to past years. As you can see, above, this year (2021) is currently poised to be the best year ever as far as the number of properties selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. So, lots of homes selling, how did we get here?  We didn't get here (1500+ home sales) without some turbulence. A year ago we had seen a slow and steady increase from 1300 sales/year up to 1350 sales/year. Then the COVID dip and then the COVID spike! Looking back, we had a five month period with far fewer home sales than we would have expected given our overall trajectory. And now, we are in the fourth month of what a much (much!) more active market than we would have expected given our overall trajectory. Now, you might find yourself saying that things have been crazy for MUCH longer than four months. Yes, you are right. The graph above is looking at a rolling 12 months of home sales, which evens out some of the peaks and valleys of home sale seasonality, but also can mean it takes longer for overall trends to appear. And yes, I know you probably didn't need a graph to tell you that a lot of homes are selling these days... but this graph made me realize that these two conflicting realities are being experienced daily in our local market...
But I digress. Lots of homes have been selling. What is to come over the next few months?  Well, based on a STRONG month of contract activity in March (143 contracts) it would seem that we'll continue to have strong months of home sales in the coming month or two. Furthermore, we're entering into what is typically one of the busiest seasons for buyers to be buying homes, so I expect contracts and closed sales to continue to stay at higher levels for the next five or six months, at least! And now, I think I mentioned (or you may have heard) that there aren't many homes for sale right now...  Yes, it is true. Even though we are seeing an ever increasing number of homes selling, we are also seeing an ever declining number of available listings. As I recently commented to a client, if we start the month with low inventory and 5,000 homes are listed for sale and 5,000 homes go under contract, we will still end the month with low inventory. As such, understand low inventory fully by remembering that...
Finally, just one more graph for your perusal...  This graph shows trends in the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate and there are a few things to note here as well...
Alright, that's all I have for you at this point. You are now up to speed on the latest news and developments in our local housing market. But if you are thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, these general market trends are only part of what you want (and need to know) as you also should dig into the market in which you are hoping to buy or sell -- whether that is best defined by price range, location, property type, etc. If I can be of help to you as you make plans to list your home for sale, or to seek a home to purchase, just let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you in person, via Zoom, or to chat by phone to help you think and talk through the possibilities. You can reach me at scott@hhtdy.com or via phone/text at 540-578-0102. Until we chat, or until I write again, here a few final tips... Sellers - Even though the market is hot, you still need to prepare your home well, price it appropriately based on historical sales data and market it thoroughly and professionally. Buyers - Get prequalified for a mortgage, start stalking new listings, go see them on the first day they hit the market, and get ready to compete in a multiple offer situation. Seller / Buyers - If you need to (or want to) sell in order to buy, this will require a bit more strategery than normal. It can be done, but we need a solid plan in place from the start. | |
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The Harrisonburg Area Real Estate Market Is As Strong As Ever Two Months Into 2021! |
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 Happy Thursday morning to you! It's been a busy week on my end, what with St. Patrick's Day yesterday, and my daughter's 13th birthday the day before (Happy Birthday Emily!) so forgive me for the slight delay in getting the news to you that... The Harrisonburg Area Real Estate Market Is As Strong As Ever Two Months Into 2021! Before I dive into the data below, a few quick links...
Now, on to the data...  As shown above, with St. Patrick's Day green numbers for ya, you'll note that...
So -- more home sales, at higher prices, selling more quickly! Sounds like a good time to be a seller and a bit less exciting of a time to be a buyer! What might develop as we finish out March?  You might notice that the 77 home sales seen in February 2021 was higher than last February (63) but was not the strongest recent month of February home sales. There were 81 home sales back in February 2018. Looking ahead to March, will we see more than 110 home sales close? It seems quite possible! Here's the data stacked up a bit differently...  As shown above, the January + February sales pace during 2021 of 182 home sales is the fastest start we've seen in the past several years. This is a good indication (though not a guarantee) that a relatively strong year of home sales lies ahead of us. You've seen a version of this graph below, but it surprises me again every time I see it...  The orange line (above) is tracking the number of home sales per year -- measured each month. Throughout 2019 and into the beginning of 2020 this was steadily increasing, from just below 1300 to nearly 1400. Then, Covid hit -- and within a few months the annual pace of home sales had dropped back down to 1300 sales per year. That's the downward dip shown above. Then, as we made it into the summer and fall (and winter) of 2020, the pace of home sales picked up incredible momentum, and accelerated beyond where we might have expected it to have been otherwise -- as shown with the dashed red line. All the while, the median sales price just kept on climbing, up to its current level of $247,700 as compared to $222,150 a year ago. So, Covid dealt us two surprises -- a rapid slow down and then a fast and furious rebound!  As noted previously, sales prices are on the rise. The median sales price of all detached homes (not duplexes, townhouses or condos) sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (via the HRAR MLS) rose 12% in 2020 -- from $240,000 up to $269,000. If you bought a home in the past year, you likely paid 5% to 15% more than you would have a year prior. Not as fun for you as a buyer -- though the seller on the other end of your purchase transaction likely thoroughly enjoyed that increase! Looking ahead, again...  While we have seen a significant increase in the annual pace of contracts being signed (1364/year up to 1548/year) the number of contracts signed in February did actually drop off a bit from last year. Admittedly, the January 2021 contracts helped keep the Jan/Feb numbers higher this year than last, but this February did have a bit slower pace of contract signing than I expected. Maybe this smaller number of contracts has something to do with inventory levels??  A year-ish ago I thought it was quite something that we had broken through the 200 mark -- and all of a sudden we were in the 190's as far as the number of homes for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But now -- we might break through the 100 mark?? A month ago there were 107 homes for sale -- now 106. Please, let's keep it to triple digits -- let's not get down to only 95 or 97 homes for sale!? One of the reasons buyers haven't minded (too terribly) that they were paying higher prices for homes over the past year was because mortgage interest rates were soooooo low...  But now, yes, mortgage interest rates are starting to rise a bit. It doesn't seem likely that they will rise dramatically through 2021, but the lows of being below 2.75% might be (??) behind us for good. OK -- I'll wrap it up there for now. A bit less than a month from now I'll send you another update on where we are a full quarter of the way through the year. My how time flies! Until then... Sellers - Even though the market is hot, you still need to prepare your home well, price it appropriately based on historical sales data and market it thoroughly and professionally. Buyers - Get prequalified for a mortgage, start stalking new listings, go see them on the first day they hit the market, and get ready to compete in a multiple offer situation. Seller / Buyers - If you need to (or want to) sell in order to buy, this will require a bit more strategery :-) than normal. It can be done, but we need a solid plan in place from the start. | |
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Home Sales Up, Prices Up, Inventory Down in January 2021 |
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 Happy Wintry Monday Morning, friends! It looks like it might be a touch above freezing temperatures today, so perhaps some of the lingering snow and ice and will start to melt today. This has been one of the coldest and snowiest and iciest months of January / February that I can remember anytime recently in the Harrisonburg area! As a preview of where we're headed in this overview of the local real estate market:
So, no huge surprises. It seems the 2021 housing market is trying to keep the momentum going from 2020. Read on for a recap of what is happening in our local housing market or:
Now, onto the data and some pretty charts and graphs...  A few observations from the overview data presented above...
Now, I was telling you that January was a bit unusual, even though it was a repeat of last January, right? Let's take a look...  Indeed, the 100 home sales we saw in January 2021 was merely a repeat of January 2020 -- boring! ;-) -- but that is many more home sales than we typically see in January. We usually see 60 to 70 home sales in the month of January. Last year's super strong month of 100 home sales was followed by a super slow month of only 63 home sales in February. Stay tuned to find out whether home sales will again quickly slide downward in February, or will remain strong. Keep reading to see how many people signed contracts in January, which might be at least some indication of what we'll see as far as February sales. Looking for a big picture graph that summarizes what has been happening in our local housing market over the past year? It's this funny looking one...  Starting with the bottom, orange, line -- this is showing the number of home sales per year for each of the past 12+ months. You'll note that the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive last year between April and August, which are usually the strongest months of the year for home sales. But then, home sales took off quickly in the fall and continued to accelerate into winter, leading to huge rebound in the pace of home sales in our area. This seems to mostly be able to be attributed to COVID. There was a lot of uncertainty in the market in March, April, May, etc. which slowed down home sales, but then as people realized that the housing market wasn't falling apart AND they realized that their homes weren't working as well for them when they were in them 95% of the time (thanks, COVID) AND they realized that super low interest rates made it a compelling time to upgrade their home, we saw home sales take off quickly! The top, green line, then is the median sales price. We have been seeing steadily increasing sales prices in our local area for the past few years and those prices kept marching upward quickly in 2020. The annualized median sales price at the end of January 2021 was $246,500 -- a significant increase above a year ago when it was $223,500. So, remember that I mentioned that January contracts might give us an idea of what to expect for February sales? Let's take a look...  It seems January wasn't just a busy month of closings - it was also a busy month for buyers (and sellers) signing contracts to buy (and sell) homes. There were 95 contracts signed in January 2020, and 123 in January 2021! As such, it seems likely that February (and March) will be busy months for closed home sales. What's it like buying a home these days? It can be a bit challenging, and stressful, mostly because of the very (very, very) low inventory levels at any given point...  A year ago, a buyer would have been choosing from 196 homes on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Today, there are only 107 homes on the market for sale!?! This huge (46%) decline in inventory levels means that a buyer doesn't have a whole lot of options at any given moment in time. Now, that's not to say that they don't have options at all -- they do. If we see 1400 home sales over the next 12 months it will be because around 1400 homes will be listed for sale. So, there will be plenty of options of what a buyer might buy -- but if recent market dynamics continue through 2021, most of those new listings will go under contract quickly (median of eight days on the market) which will keep the inventory levels quite low! Finally, those interest rates. Yes, they are still low...  Some part of what fueled the wild real estate market in 2020 was super low mortgage interest rates. As shown above, the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has been below 3% for over six months now. This has kept monthly housing prices affordable for buyers amidst rising prices and has also allowed plenty of folks to refinance and see cost savings on a monthly basis. So there we have it. We're a month (ok, really a month and a half) into 2021 and thus far we're seeing a continuation of the strong local housing market that we saw in 2020. Generally speaking that means it will be pretty fun to be a seller, pretty challenging to be a buyer, and you'll get to experience the full range of emotions of you are selling AND buying! If you are making plans for selling or buying in spring 2021... Sellers - Even though the market is hot, you still need to prepare your home well, price it appropriately based on historical sales data and market it thoroughly and professionally. Buyers - Get prequalified for a mortgage, start stalking new listings, go see them on the first day they hit the market, and get ready to compete in a multiple offer situation. Seller / Buyers - If you need to (or want to) sell in order to buy, this will require a bit more strategery :-) than normal. It can be done, but we need a solid plan in place from the start. If I can be of help to you as you start to think about the possibility of making a move, selling your home, buying a new one, etc. -- just let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you in person, via Zoom, or to chat by phone to help you think and talk through the possibilities. You can reach me at scott@hhtdy.com or via phone/text at 540-578-0102. Enjoy the second half of February, and we'll check in again in early March! | |
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At Year End, Home Sales Up 13%, Prices Up 10% in 2020 in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Happy New Year, friends! 2020 was a year like no other - in our local housing market - and in many (many!) other ways. I hope you and your family are doing well, staying healthy, and are full of hope looking forward to the year ahead! Below, I'll walk you through some of the overall trends we are seeing in our local housing market when reflecting back on a full year of 2020 home sales data. Before we get started, though, check out the featured home above here and feel free to download the full PDF of my market report here. Now, to the data...  What a wild finish to the year! A few things to note when looking at this overall data...
Looking a bit further, let's break down the detached homes as compared to attached homes. Attached homes are duplexes, townhomes and condominiums.  As you can see above...
It's hard to think of the best metaphor for the monthly pace of home sales in 2020. Perhaps someone running a race that tripped and fell and slowed down considerably a third of the way into the race, but who slowly picked up speed over the next third of the race and who absolutely SPRINTED through the final third of the race?  Take a look at September through December of 2020 above, marked with a red line. This is not normal / typical / expected. We expect to see an average of about 100 home sales per month for the last four months of the year. In 2020, it was an average of 149 home sales per month! This, clearly, makes me hesitant to guess about what we'll see in January and February. These winter months are typically the slowest months of the year for home sales -- but not in 2020. I expect we'll continue to see stronger than usual home sales for at least the first few months of 2021. And, looking at those sales on an annual basis...  If you track along any particular color band in the graph above you can see where we were at that point of the year for each of the past five years. In August (yellow) of 2020 we were tracking right around where we would expect to be based on 2019 sales. But then those last four months of the year happened, catapulting us waaaaay ahead of where we have been for any recent year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Here's an even crazier look at what has been happening for the past four months...  The more interesting (confusing!?) line above is the orange one. That is showing the number of home sales we're seeing per year in our area. That trajectory took a nose dive in early 2020 thanks to COVID but has been absolutely skyrocketing over the past four months. Why, why, why? Here are some guesses...
OK, I went on a bit more than I expected there, let's look one more time at the annual trends before we move on...  Two main things to note above...
Now, looking briefly at what is to come...  After I meticulously drew all of those purple arrows to point something out (see below) I realized it might seem like I was saying those numbers were decreasing. They're not. I didn't re-draw the arrows. You'll forgive me? OK - now to the point -- if you look at the seven purple arrows on the left you'll see that I'm pointing out the contracts signed between June and December of 2019 -- a total of 724 contracts. The seven purple arrows on the right are pointing out the contracts signed between June and December of 2020 -- a total of 960 contracts. So -- here's that evidence of a big increase in contract activity in the second half of the year. We saw that bear itself out in lots of closed sales between September and December, and I think that is going to keep on rolling into January and February. I expect we will see stronger than normal months of home sales for the first few months of 2021 if not longer. As I've alluded to a few times thus far, there is a lot of competition amongst buyers as each new listing hits the market. This abundance of buyers in the market, and scarcity of sellers, has caused continued downward shifts in inventory levels...  As you can see above, end-of-year inventory levels fell 33% over the past year. The important detail to note here is that these are just "moment in time" inventory levels. How many homes are on the market, actively listed for sale, on a particular day. Clearly, the 33% decline in inventory levels did not result in a decline in home sales in 2020. Perhaps it's actually the other way around -- the 13% increase in home sales in 2020 caused inventory levels to drop another 33% OK, one last graph to illustrate something I've referenced above...  I told you mortgage interest rates had fallen - but look at how far they have fallen! Less than two years ago, the average 30 year mortgage interest rate was above 4%. Only a year ago it was 3.74%. Now, it's 2.67%. That marks a 29% decline in interest rates over the past year. This makes mortgage money cheap -- and monthly payments low -- and is part of what allowed median sales prices to rise 10% over the past year. Buyers were willing to pay higher prices for homes at least partly because their monthly costs keep declining. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, 2020 was a wild year and not at all what I expected it to be in March and April when things started slowing down. I did make a few predictions for 2021, but given how many surprises 2020 threw at us, it's certainly hard to imagine where exactly things might go in 2021. If you're thinking about buying a home in 2021, let's chat sooner rather than later if I can be of help to you in that process. You'll want to get pre-approved for a mortgage right away and then we'll want to start stalking the new listings as they hit the market. If you're thinking about selling your home in 2021, it is likely going to be a lot of fun to do so -- even if still a bit stressful. You will still need to prepare your house well, price it according to pertinent market data, and we'll need to market it thoroughly, but many sellers in most price ranges and locations are finding it to be a very favorable time to sell. If/when you're ready to connect to talk about buying or selling, feel free to email me (scott@hhtdy.com) or call/text me at 540-578-0102. Happy New Year! | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Up 10%, Prices Up 11% Thus Far In 2020 |
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 Happy Tuesday, friends! They say it might snow tomorrow. I'm currently seeing predictions of 6 to 9 inches. What is your best guess? We haven't had a sizable snowstorm in the Harrisonburg area in several years - maybe it's finally showing up? Or maybe it will just be rain - you know - 2020 and all... ;-) But enough about whether the snow will be piling up tomorrow -- home sales have been piling up BIG TIME this year and the last few months have been surprisingly busier than you'd expect at this time of year! Read on for details, or download a PDF of my full market report here. But first, not to be overlooked, the home shown above is the last home to be built at Heritage Estates. If you know someone who wants to live in this active adult community in Harrisonburg, this will be the last opportunity for a new home in the neighborhood. OK, now, an overview of the basics...  Check out the crazy numbers above...
So, did I mention the fall home sale season has been a bit atypical?  Yes, as you can see by the red line above, fall 2020 has been crazy! Usually, home sales fall during the fall. They gently decline into the slower winter season. This year, not so much. Home sales shot up in September and have stayed at unpredictably high levels through the end of November! And when you pile all of those strong months of sales on top of each other...  As you can see above, the number of home sales we've seen (1,351) in the first 11 months of this year is more than we have seen in any of the past three years... during the entire year! So, once we pile December on top, we're likely to be looking at well over 1,400 home sales this year -- and maybe as many as 1,450? But we didn't get to these high levels of home sales without some dips...  The orange line above shows the number of home sales in a 12 month period -- each month for the past year+ and it reveals the roller coaster that we've been on for the past year. Just before COVID started impacting our lives, the annual pace of home sales was starting to sneak up above its previous normal trendline. But then, COVID, and the annual pace of home sales dipped down quite a bit and it was uncertain where we'd go next. But by the time we got to August it was evident that the home sales market was roaring back and it is now well above where we might have expected it to be a year ago! And all that interest in buying homes has caused prices to rise...  Over the past five years we have seen the median sales price of detached homes rise anywhere from 2% to 7% per year and average out at about 5% per year. But this year -- how does 10% sound? I suppose it sounds good if you are a seller and it sounds pretty rotten if you are a buyer who has not yet found a home to buy! A year ago the median sales price of detached homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) was $240,000. Today... $265,000! Looking forward -- will we keep seeing lots of home sales?  It seems likely. During the past three months 377 buyers (and sellers) have signed contracts to buy (and sell) homes. Looking back a year ago to the same three months we only see 297 contracts signed. Thus, we should probably expect a relatively high number of closed home sales in December and January. Maybe things won't slow down as much as usual this winter. Hard to believe! And as 2020 goes, houses are getting about as hard to find as toilet paper...  Indeed, there have been fewer and fewer homes for sale at any given time this year as compared to last. Rampant buyer activity has caused many (most?) new listings to be snatched up as quickly as they have been listed for sale. This has driven inventory levels lower than I thought we'd ever see. A bit under a year ago we dropped below 200 homes for sale which was a shocker... but now, fewer than 150 homes for sale!? It's tough to be a buyer right now in many locations and price ranges! But if you do find a house to buy... you'll love those low interest rates...  Mortgage interest rates have been steadily declining for the past 18+ months now, and are solidly below 3%! It's hard to believe, but most buyers are locking in interest rates at 2 point something -- fixed for 30 years! These lower rates have allowed mortgage payments to stay relatively steady over the past year despite increases in home prices.
OK, folks, that's all for now. I have to go see if I can find my snow shovel just in case it really does snow tomorrow. I hope you have a wonderful remainder of the 2020, and I look forward to connecting with you again in 2021! Reach out anytime by calling/texting me at 540-578-0102 or by dropping me an email at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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Local Home Sales, Prices Hit Record Highs In October 2020 |
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 Happy Veterans Day and an enormous thanks to all who have served our country! Also, Happy November and Happy Thanksgiving! Speaking of thankfulness, we have a lot to be thankful for when it comes to the residential real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Despite all of the twists and turns and ups and downs that 2020 has brought to our lives, the local housing market has remained stable and has even grown stronger over the past ten months. Unfortunately, as with many things in life, this has meant that there have been winners and losers. Home owners and home sellers have done well and have appreciated this strength of and growth in our local housing market. Folks who do not own a home, or who have been unsuccessful in trying to buy a home, and even those who have been successful in buying a home this year are likely a bit less excited about how strong and vibrant our local housing market has been in 2020. All that said, I believe this is the second best type of housing market trend to be seeing locally. Here's how I rank them as far as what is best for us locally...
So, as stated, we're in category two above, which I prefer to three and four if we can't be in category one. :-) Now, after that rather long intro, let's get on to some data, but first, be sure to check out the home featured above, an upscale four bedroom Preston Lake townhouse on the Village Green by visiting 3297BatteryParkPlace.com. OK, finally, unless you're skipping right to PDF of my full monthly report, let's dig into the data...  Quite a few things to note on the market snapshot above...
Interestingly, things do branch out a bit when we look at the City vs. the County...  As shown above, there has been a decline in home sales in the City (-5.58%) while we have seen an increase in the County (+11.63%). Not shown is that the median sales price has increased in both areas -- up 11% in the City and up 9.76% in the County. The decline in City home sales is not for home buyers not trying -- there are plenty of folks who want to buy in the City but there seems to be a shortage of sellers willing to sell. So - did I mention that September and October were a bit surprising?  Take a few seconds to take in what the graph above is showing us. September 2020 home sales (156) were 47% higher than the average of the past three months of September. October 2020 home sales (149) were 35% higher than the average of the past three months of October. So, if the local housing market was unusually slow this Spring due to COVID, this September and October have more than made up for that given these shockingly high months of home sales! Which invites the question of how the year will finish out...  Earlier this year, I thought we were certainly going to see a decline in annual home sales after several years of increases. Not so much. We seem poised to easily surpass last year's pace of 1,324 home sales -- and it seems possible we could even make it to 1,400 home sales this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Who would have thought!? Here's where I'm getting that "maybe 1400" number...  A few things going on above. First, the orange line, which is showing us the annual pace of home sales, evaluated on a monthly basis. After having risen from 1300-ish to 1350-ish, we fell back down to 1300-ish due to COVID, but the annual pace of home sales has rocketed back upward and is now approaching 1400 sales per year. The green line shows that home values didn't falter a bit despite a temporary slow down in home sales. We have seen steady increases in the annualized median sales price over the last year which has steadily (and quickly) risen from $217K to $240K. That seems like quite a large increase in the median sales price, right?  It is a large increase. Over the past five years the median sales price has increased at an average of 4.6% per year. This year, thus far, we have seen the median sales price increase 8.8% -- almost twice as much as these other recent years. This has been almost entirely fueled by increasing demand for homes, declining inventory levels and declining mortgage interest rates. These changes have made it more and more of a seller's market...  A few things to not and think about, above...
So, given this strong sellers market, are sellers negotiating much?  Nope. The median ratio between the list price and sales price for all homes sold in 2020 has been 100%. What!? Yes, that means that half of homes sold for the list price or more! This has been the least that sellers have negotiated in many, many years - maybe ever. Circling back to those inventory levels one more time...  You'll see that we are seeing some amount of seasonable fluctuation in inventory levels as we did see a slight rise in homes for sale (and not under contract) during the spring months, but we have seen an overall 39% decline in inventory levels over the past year. Inventory levels ticked upward in October 2020, but I doubt that will be a lasting trend. We are likely to see relatively low inventory levels (under 200) even through the remainder of the fall and into and through the winter. Oh, and did I mention that mortgage interest rates are relatively low?  Perhaps absurdly, ridiculously, unexpectedly, historically low would be a better way to describe it. We just finished the fourth month of average 30 year mortgage interest rates being below 3%! This has created some very favorable monthly payment scenarios for buyers this year -- and thus far I'm not getting any sense that we'll see these interest rates rise much in the near future. OK, back to a few (real estate related) areas of thankfulness...
I'll close out with a few key recommendations for buyers and sellers in this crazy-ish market... BUYERS
SELLERS
OK. That's all folks. I hope you have plenty to be thankful for in your world. As always, if I can be of any help to you or your family, please let me know! Reach out anytime by calling/texting me at 540-578-0102 or by dropping me an email at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales and Prices Soar In September 2020! |
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 Happy Monday Morning! What a wild year this has been - and it is now, already, more than three quarters of the way to the end. Many things have been turned upside down in our daily lives, but as this year has continued to progress, one thing that has not been affected as much as you might expect has been our local real estate market. We're seeing more home sales this year than last, at higher prices, taking place at record speeds. Before we dig into the data, be sure to check out Founders Way, a condo development currently under construction just minutes from downtown Harrisonburg. Find out more about these new two bedroom condos starting in the $170K's by visiting FoundersWay.com. Now, feel free to download a PDF of my entire monthly report, or read on for some juicy tidbits to start your week off right...  First, from a big picture perspective, referencing the chart above...
So, again, repeating the story from above - COVID has created plenty of train wrecks, but our local housing market has been able to keep on moving right along, full steam ahead. Now, looking for a moment at detached homes compared to attached homes...  The green portions of the chart above show the trajectory of detached homes, and you might note that there have been slightly fewer (735 vs. 737) of these sales in 2020 when compared to 2019. Despite that ever-so-slight slow down, however, the median sales price of those homes has increased 9%! If detached home sales have slowed down, slightly, attached home sales have been running in the opposite direction, quickly. We have seen an 11% increase in the number of attached home sales in 2020 as compared to 2019 - and again - a 9% increase in the median sales price of these attached homes. Now, for the visual learners, let's take a look at September again...  As shown above, September was a wild month for home sales. The (150) home sales seen in September 2020 make it the second highest month of home sales for the year - which is quite atypical for September! I assume that home sales will slow down quite a bit in October, and then much further in November and December -- but this year has been anything but predictable, so who knows!?! Oh, and did I mention that 2020 finally caught up with 2019?  Back in March and April, I noted that 2020 was off to a STRONG start -- with more home sales in the first quarter of this year than in any recent year. But then, COVID. Many fewer sellers put their homes on the market in March, April and May, which resulted in fewer buyers being able to buy houses, which slowed down the annual pace of home sales quite a bit as we progressed through late spring and then through the summer. But then, September! The high sailing month of home sales in September caused our year to date trajectory to pop above all recent years again. So, 2020 is a great year - or at least for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Want another visual of the impact of COVID?  The weird dip in the orange line on the graph above is the impact of COVID. Our annual pace of home sales started dropping about five months ago, and we can only now confidently say that we're back on track to see the expected overall increase in that trajectory of home sales in this area. But that green line!?! Despite a slow down in home sales, we continued to see the median price rise, rise and rise some more. Maybe because COVID caused inventory levels to dip even lower, causing buyers to be willing to pay even more for a house? Maybe because the super low mortgage interest rates allow a buyer to be more flexible on price? Nobody knows for sure, but those prices, they keep on rising! Speaking of prices rising...  Over the past five years we have seen an average annual increase in the median sales price of 5% per year. This year, it is looking like it will be a 9% increase. This is not totally surprising -- more buyer interest, lower inventory levels, low interest rates, etc. -- but prices can't rise at 9% per year forever, so 2021 and 2022 will be interesting to watch to see how much further prices can or will increase. And now, looking back a bit to look forward...  A few things to note here, on the graph above. First, it was a summer FULL of contracts. There were 34% more contracts signed this summer than last, and 32% more signed this September than last. Thus, it seems relatively likely that the strong home sales we have seen thus far in 2020 will continue on through at least October and likely into November. How many times have I said "low inventory levels now"?  There it is, visualized, above -- the agony of buyers in our current local housing market. Inventory levels are at historic low levels. Never have there been fewer homes on the market, for sale, at a single point in time in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We have seen a 46% decline in active inventory over the past year. Now - keep in mind, we have seen a 2% - 3% increase in home sales, so these low inventory levels just mean that as quickly as new listings come on the market they are being scooped up by a buyer, preventing them from contributing to the "number of homes for sale" metric which we call "inventory". Unfortunately, I don't anticipate that these inventory levels will shift upwards anytime soon unless it is due to new construction at a large scale. Finally, a few times above I have noted that prices are rising - and this is perhaps one of the reasons why buyers can pay higher prices without blinking...  As shown above, the average mortgage interest rate keeps on falling. A year ago it was 3.64% and now it's down to 2.9%. These super low interest rates create a great opportunity for today's home buyers to lock in ridiculously low interest rates -- and they soften the impact of rising home prices. Alright, I'll pause here for now. If you've made it this far, thanks for taking the time to seek to better understand our local housing market. For more such joy, feel free to check out my blog or shoot me an email (scott@hhtdy.com) with any questions you have about our local housing market or about your house. Some key take aways... BUYERS
SELLERS
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Local Home Sales, Contracts, Prices Surge In Summer 2020 |
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 Happy Monday Morning! Temperatures are cooling, and fall will soon be upon us! It looks like the high temps will be in the 70's all week - except Friday when we're expected to have a high of only 67 degrees! I love fall and am looking forward to the slightly cooler weather. But even if the temperatures are cooling off, local home sales are not necessarily doing the same! Before we dig into the data this month, be sure to check out Congers Creek, the new townhouse neighborhood being built on Boyers Road near Sentara RMH Medical Center by visiting CongersCreek.com. Now, feel free to download a PDF of my entire report, or read on for highlights...  Quite a few items to note above...
Now, let's take a look at how the past few months have fallen into the context of previous years...  As you can see above, May and June were remarkably SLOW months for home sales - well below the normal pace for those months. But then, July and August came storming in -- with higher numbers of home sales than we would have or could have expected. So it seems that home sales may have just shifted this year to be later in the year than most years. Who could even guess what might happen in September and October at this point!?! And here is how the year is stacking up with the past two years thus far in 2020...  For all the things one might say about 2020, it seems we won't be able to say that home sales stunk. A busy late-summer has caused this year to catch right back up (almost) to where we have been for the past two years -- and based on contract activity (keep reading) I think we might surpass last year's sales trajectory as we close out 2020. That's not to say, of course, that home sales didn't take a temporary dip as a result of COVID...  Indeed, the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive in the spring -- OK, that might be an exaggeration, but they did slow down. Despite that temporary slow down, though, home prices kept right on climbing!?! That disconnect likely means the slow down was largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell -- not a result of buyers not wanting to buy. Now about those rising prices - how fast are they actual increasing?  Faster than anytime recently - though barely. We've seen an 8% increase in the median sales price between 2019 and 2020. To try to put that in context...
So - I guess prices are rising somewhat faster than in recent years, but not absurdly faster. Now, let's look back in order to look forward...  The graph above is showing us contract activity -- when buyers (and sellers) are signing contracts, not when they are closing on their purchase/sale. As you can see, this was a blockbuster of a summer for contract activity! Only 369 contracts were signed last June through August, and that increased to 495 contracts this June through August. That's a 34% increase in summer contracts! This all means we are likely to see a high number of home sales continue take place as we move into the fall. I expect that we'll see an abnormally high number of home sales in both September and October. Perhaps it is no surprise that all of these buyers signing contracts is keeping/driving inventory levels low, so very, very low...  There have been fewer, and fewer, and fewer homes on the market at any given time as we have moved through this year. It is a tough time to be a buyer as there are not many choices for you at any given time, and you will likely have competition from other buyers if you are pursuing a new listing. Those buyers who are able to secure a contract on a house are financing their purchases at some rather extraordinary rates...  The mortgage interest rates they just keep on falling The average rate fell to 2.91% by the end of August, and I have seen my clients locking in as low as 2.85% and even 2.75% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage! OK - that brings our monthly jaunt through the local homes sales data to a close, for now. You can read more about our local real estate market on my blog, and of course you can email me (scott@hhtdy.com) with any questions about the market or about your particular situation. Some key take aways... BUYERS
SELLERS
OK, that's all folks! I hope that you have a wonderful balance of September, and that you and your family are healthy and well and are finding ways to manage the many changing dynamics in our daily lives! Reach out anytime (540-578-0102 or scott@hhtdy.com) if I can be of any help to you! | |
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Local Home Sales Slow Slightly But Prices Are Up 10% in 2020! |
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 Happy Tuesday Morning! Summer is winding down, and it's been a bit of an unusual one...
As your summer comes to a close, I hope you have found some ways to relax and take a break, despite everything going on right now. Go for a run! Head out on a bike ride! Plan a day hike! In the latest adventures of the Rogers family, I took Emily zip lining and Luke water skiing this past weekend. :-) Whatever your version of fun and relaxation, I hope you can find some of it in these last weeks of summer. And now, if you have been looking for a distraction from the craziness in your everyday life, read on for some crazy news about our local housing market. :-) But first -- check out this beautiful home (shown above) in Chatham Square by visiting 2378AlstonCircle.com. Also, feel free to download a full PDF of my market report here. OK, OK, now, on to the data...  Quite a bit to note above...
To pick up on a few nuances, let's break things down by detached homes (single family homes - shown in green below) as compared to attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos - shown in orange below)...  We start to see some differences when breaking things down by property type...
Now, let's contextualize those 150 home sales we saw in July...  As shown above, home sales often or usually peak in May or June with sales then slowing down as we roll into July. But not this year! Home sales seem to be accelerating month by month as we have seen steady increases between April, May, June and July. In fact, the 150 home sales see in July was the third strongest month of home sales we have seen since at least 2017! This next graph might be a bit confusing, but let's see if we can make sense of it...  OK - starting with the orange line at the bottom of the graph... The annual pace of home sales had risen all the way up to 1,374 home sales per year by the end of March 2020. This was a slow and steady increase over several years -- but that all started to shift downward once we started incorporating April and May data into the mix. Home sales did decidedly slow down for several months, causing the annual pace of home sales to slide. It seems we may now be seeing that trend line stabilize in July as the annual pace of sales is no longer declining. But yet -- as noted next to the green line -- home prices have continued to go up, up, up. Back in March and April I wondered whether we'd see a slow down in sales and whether we would see a slight downward shift in home prices. It seems I was half right. Sales slowed, but prices have continued to rise! These two contradictory trends may best be understood by realizing that sellers drive trends during a seller's market. Fewer sellers wanted to list their homes for sale during the "time of COVID" and thus fewer sales happened in April and May (if the houses aren't listed for sale, they surely won't sell) but there were seemingly just as many (or more) buyers ready to buy. An unusual (and temporary) decline in sellers combined with just as many (or more) buyers caused home prices to continue to climb, perhaps even higher and faster than they would have otherwise! OK - thanks for sticking with me on that one. Now, let's predict the future by looking at contract activity...  First, the big, red, handwritten numbers will quickly show you that the pace of contract signing this year (916 between Jan and Jul) is quite a bit higher than last year (860 between Jan and Jul), but there's more! Last year in June and July we saw 247 buyers (and sellers) sign contracts to buy and sell homes. This year there were 337 contracts signed during that same timeframe! It is almost as if buyers (and sellers) are trying to make up for lost time -- as contract activity has been ramping up for the past few months after a slower than expected spring market. OK, I told you I'd circle back to it...  OK - so - about those home prices. As shown above, you'll note that the median sales price of detached homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) has increased 7% between 2019 and 2020. That's more than the 4.8% average over the past five years -- though we did also see a 7% increase between 2015 and 2016. So, should we be concerned about prices increasing this much? After all, didn't prices skyrocket back in 2004 and 2005 leading to eventual declines in housing prices? Why yes, you are correct - we did see significant increases in the median sales price in 2004 (+16%) and 2005 (+24%) and those increases were unsustainable -- prices eventually came back down, slowly, between 2006 and 2011. But this time, perhaps it's different? It's hard to say for sure whether the price increases we are seeing are "too fast" or "too much" to be sustainable. We'll only really know a year or two from now, looking backward. I suppose it is important to note that while a 7% increase is much higher than any long term average, it is also not as crazy as we were seeing back in 2004 and 2005. One of the things that is driving these prices up is the vast number of would-be buyers competing over an ever-shrinking number of homes for sale...  Yes -- you're reading that correctly -- there are currently 30% fewer homes for sale now as compared to a year ago. Further -- the current inventory level (189 homes for sale) is actually lower than this past winter, which is rather unusual for July/August! There are many things causing so many buyers to want to buy, and buy now, which is driving down the inventory levels, but one of those motivators for buyers is...  ...super low interest rates! Mortgage interest rates have been below 3% for the past few weeks -- yes, the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate -- below 3%! I have had a few clients lock in at 2.65% and 2.75% which is rather hard to fathom. So, not to encourage you to jump on the bandwagon if you're not ready to do so, but if you're thinking about buying soon, these interest rates sure do make it compelling to try to buy sooner rather than later. OK - that wraps it up for now. A few closing notes... SELLERS - Even though it is a seller's market, it is still essential that we prepare, price and market your home well! Read more about that here and shoot me an email if you want to meet to start talking about getting your house on the market in the coming weeks or months. BUYERS - Be prepared to be patient, as you'll likely be competing with plenty of other buyers. Make sure to talk to a lender ASAP (ask me if you need a recommendation) so that we have a pre-qualification letter in hand when making an offer. HOMEOWNERS - Yes, certainly the vast majority of those who receive this market report won't be buying or selling next month. So, for the rest of you, enjoy the fact that your home's value has likely increased over the past year! If that makes you want to think about selling - let's chat. Otherwise, just enjoy knowing that your home's value has likely increased. :-) That's all for now, folks. If there is any way that I can help you or your family with real estate, or otherwise, let me know. Otherwise, enjoy the balance of August and I'll be back to crunch the numbers all over again in mid-September. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Prices Up Nearly 7% in First Half of 2020 |
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 Happy Tax Day! Yes, that's right, today is the extended deadline for filing and paying income taxes. But the day is still young, so read on for an update on our local housing market before you go submit your tax filing. ;-) But first -- check out this recent listing (shown above) in Highland Park priced at $365K by visiting 4065LucyLongDrive.com. Two other notes before we get started...
OK, now, on to the data...  We're now officially halfway through the year when looking at year-to-date sales figures and there is plenty of interesting trends to note above...
Now, let's take a brief look at detached homes compared to attached homes. Attached homes includes duplexes, townhomes and condos.  As shown above...
So, prices have risen quite a bit between 2019 and 2020 even without much of an increase (actually a slight decrease) in the number of homes that are selling. But perhaps the trend in the pace of home sales is shifting...  If you look at the four numbers I circled in gold above, you'll see that May 2020 home sales were drastically lower than May 2019 -- but the gap between June 2020 and June 2019 was not as severe. Perhaps we are starting to see home sales pick back up again? At least some of the (slight) decline in home sales in 2020 seemed to be a result of fewer would-be home sellers listing their homes for sale which gave would-be home buyers fewer options for buying. Now, looking at some longer term trends...  The data above looks at a moving 12-month set of data, and we're seeing divergent trends now. The median sales price (green line) keeps on steadily rising -- while the annual pace of home sales (orange line) has been drifting downward over the past three months. As noted above, fewer sales seems likely to be a result of fewer sellers being willing to sell and not fewer buyers being willing to buy -- which would at least partially explain why prices keep on rising. All of this means that is definitely still a STRONG seller's market...  As shown above, the number of buyers buying in the market has stayed rather steady over the past few years (though it has dropped off a bit over the past few months) while the number of sellers selling (inventory at any given time) continues to decline. This makes it an absolutely wonderful time to be a seller -- and probably a not very fun time at all to be a buyer. And, well, if you need to do both (sell and buy) you'll be both ecstatic and depressed! This next stat might surprise you...  I did not see this one coming! I'll dive a bit deeper into this in the coming days, but it seems that the median "list price to sales price ratio" has risen to 100% in 2020! That means that half of sellers are selling below their list price and half of sellers are selling ABOVE their list price!? I knew sellers were having to negotiate less and less on price -- but this statistic is still rather shocking. Again, I'll dive deeper into the data in coming days to see what else I can uncover here. And set your coffee cup back down, because here's another surprise for you...  Contract activity in the first five months of the year was lagging behind this year (-5%) as compared to last year. But when we factor in June contracts, not such much! Now there have been 3% more contracts in 2020 than in the same timeframe in 2019, mostly because of the astonishingly high 175 contracts signed in June 2020! Wow! Again, I'll break this down further over the next few days to try to better understand this spike in contract activity. And as is likely NO surprise, inventory levels keep on dropping...  There are currently only 214 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which is 20% lower than where we were a year ago. I was hopeful that we'd see inventory levels pick up a bit during the spring -- which didn't really happen. Maybe we'll see some late summer, early fall increases?? Finally, on to this super low, historically low, ridiculously low interest rates...  Buyers financing their home purchases over the past few months have enjoyed some absurdly low mortgage interest rates. The current average is 3.13%, which is the lowest EVER and I've even had some buyer clients pay a point or so to get under 3% -- on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage! Wow! OK - that about wraps up my monthly run down of what is happening in our local real estate market. Stay tuned over the next few days for some deeper analysis of some of the trends as mentioned above. If you have questions about what I have discussed, or about other market trends you are observing, shoot me an email. Otherwise, until next time...
Finally... if you're thinking about buying soon, or selling soon, and are looking for a Realtor to assist you with that process - I'd be happy to connect with you at your convenience. You can reach me most easily at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or by calling/texting me at 540-578-0102. Have a great second half of the first month of the second half of the year! :-) | |
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Local Home Prices Still Rising Despite Slightly Fewer Home Sales |
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 Happy Monday Morning! We're nearly halfway through the year now, and it has been a year like no other when it comes to our local real estate market and in so many other ways. Read on for an overview of our local housing market, or click here to download a 28-page PDF with all of the latest local housing market trends. But before we dive into the data, take a few minutes to check out this custom-built cedar log home on 2.81 acres one mile from Sentara RMH by visiting 3193TaylorSpringLane.com. Now, on to the data...  So much to point out here as this has been anything but a "normal" year...
OK - that was a lot of words to absorb - let's get to more visuals and fewer words. Relax and sip your coffee as you scroll through the following trends - knowing you'll be smarter, even if a bit more confused, by the time you get to the bottom of this overview...  This has been a year of bests and worsts! Home sales were on fire in January and March (best months ever) and were dreadfully slow in February, April and May (worst months ever) - leaving no clear indication of whether we should be extraordinarily excited or depressed about 2020. Maybe we are experiencing this same dichotomy as we think about other aspects of 2020 as well!? :-) But when viewing these bests and worsts piled on top of each other...  The positive impact of the strong months (Jan/Mar) have almost entirely made up for drag of the slow months (Feb/Apr/May) bringing our year-to-date total of home sales up to 479 -- only slightly behind where we were a year ago. But even if those year-to-date numbers are rosy, the most recent two months of slower sales do impact the longer-term trajectory...  We can get excited about the top graph above -- in green -- as the median sales price is definitely still on the rise. The bottom graph (above, in orange) does show that the annual pace of buyer activity is starting to decline based on slower than normal sales in April and May. We may yet see this bounce back up depending on how June and July and August go, so stay tuned... And speaking of how future sales will go -- we ought to take a look at contract activity...  Contract activity is (clearly) a leading indicator for closed sales. Above you'll note that March and April of 2020 (116, 120) were much slower than last year (132,158) but we did see an increase in May contract activity. If we continue to see another increase in contract activity in June, then perhaps the surge of contracts being signed will just have been later in 2020 than in most other years. And if you're wondering why contract activity has been lower than usual, here is one reason for it...  Inventory levels (the number of homes on the market for sale at any given point in time) continue to decline. As such, buyers are finding fewer (and fewer) options of homes to buy. This has been a steady trend (lower inventory levels) over the past few years and the fact that inventory levels are still dropping tells me that slower sales is a result of fewer sellers selling more than a result of fewer buyers buying. The speed at which homes sell also reinforces that conclusion...  As shown above, two out of three homes are under contract within one month of hitting the market for sale. Beyond that, the median days on market for all homes that have sold in the past year -- was 15 days! So, there are fewer homes for sale at any given time, and homes are selling more quickly than ever -- indicating that buyers are still out there ready to buy -- we just need some sellers ready and willing to sell! And finally, some big picture economic indicators that are great and awful...  We are experiencing the lowest mortgage interest rates -- ever! Several of my buyer clients have locked in 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates below 3% (paying a point) but even without paying a point, the average rate at the end of May was only 3.15%! Yet at the same time, the unemployment rate (which had been trending lower and lower and lower) shot up from 2 point something up to 10.8% in April. This is likely at least somewhat temporary - and seems to affect folks renting homes more than those buying homes - but it is still not a great indicator of the health of our local economy. I'll be following this trajectory close over the next few months. OK - that brings your Monday morning snapshot of our local housing market to a close. And yes, I'll forgive you if you didn't get around to reading this until some other time than Monday morning. A few quick out takeaways...
If you're thinking about buying soon, or selling soon, let me know if you'd like to chat more specifically about your situation and goals. I'd be happy to help you with our potential purchase or sale. You can reach me most easily at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or by calling/texting me at 540-578-0102. Have a great week! | |
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Home Sales and Prices Still Rising Despite Declining Contract Activity |
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 I just published my monthly market report, which you can download as a PDF here, or read on for the highlights of what is happening these days in our local housing market. But first, check out the details of the house shown above, located adjacent to the JMU campus, by visiting 80MaplehurstAvenue.com. Now, let's dive into the housing data and see what we can learn about the latest trends in the Harrisonburg real estate market...  As you can see above, the pace of home sales dropped off a good bit in April 2020 (see #1) as there were only 91 closed sales as compared to 112 last April. This is not altogether surprising, as we had seen contract activity starting to decline slightly in March. The year-to-date pace of sales (see #2) is actually still quite a bit higher (8.36%) this year as compared to last year. There was a surge of home sales in January 2020 which has kept us ahead of last year when it comes to year-to-date sales despite slower sales in April. The median sales price is still on the rise (see #3) over the past year -- having risen from $214,900 a year ago to $229,250 at the end of April. Homes are selling faster and faster and faster (see #4) with a 33% decline over the past year in the median days on market. And now, let's look at how sales have bounced all over the place thus far in 2020...  If you're feeling dizzy in 2020 trying to keep track of how the housing market is doing, you're not alone...
So, yeah - the net effect is still an increase between 2019 and 2020 - but that might shift when we include May home sales. We are likely to see fewer than 130 home sales in May based on contract activity in April. Only time will tell whether these short term interruptions of long term trends will impact those long term trends, as shown below...  As you can see (in green) the median sales price has been steadily rising over the past year (quite a bit longer actually) to the current median sales price of $229,250. So far, we're not seeing any indications that we'll see a flattening or decline in market values in this area. Over the past year, we have seen an increase (even if choppy) in the pace of home sales, but that dropped a bit in April 2020, and might drop a bit more in May 2020. I think this is mostly related to fewer sellers being willing to sell which is resulting in fewer buyers being able to buy. It's also helpful to look at values over time just for single family homes, as the townhouse/condo market often includes investors which doesn't show owner occupant buying activity as clearly...  The figures above are showing the median sales price of detached homes over the past six plus years. The median sales price has risen between 2% and 7% for each of the past five years, and seems to be ready to increase again in 2020, perhaps by around 3%. Part of the reason that prices are going up is because we're seeing steady buyer demand amidst fewer and fewer options of homes for sale at any given moment...  Above, we're looking at the number of buyers buying in a six month period -- which has been relatively steady over the past few years -- as compared to the number of homes on the market at any given time. The buyers are consistently ready to buy -- but they're fighting over fewer and fewer homes for sale. All that has made this an increasingly strong seller's market over the past few years. That said, buyer activity has faded a big over the past two months...  Last year, April was the strongest month of buyer activity for the entire year -- this year, not so much. We've seen an increase each month this year in the number of buyers buying -- but it has only resulted in a total of 440 contracts, as compared to a slightly higher pace of 466 contracts last year. So, slightly fewer buyers have contracted to buy in 2020, which will eventually result in a slower year-to-date sales figure, though that hasn't shown up yet. And why are fewer buyers buying, you might ask? I think the largest factor is fewer sellers being willing to sell...  As shown above, we have seen a 13% decline in the number of homes for sale over the past year. Last year, the number of homes for sale rose to around 270 homes and stayed around that number between March and October. This year, it is not clear that we'll see inventory levels get that high. Those buyers that are able to buy, though, are financing their home purchase at a historically low mortgage interest rate...  The mortgage interest rate at the end of April was 3.23%, which is the lowest on record -- ever. If you are buying in today's market, and are able to secure a contract on a house in this low inventory environment, you are certain to be pleased with your mortgage interest rate. OK, well, I'll leave it at that for now. You can review all of the trends and graphs by downloading a PDF of my market report here, or follow my blog at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com where I'll continue to monitor trends in our local market. In summary, the local housing market continues to see more homes selling, faster, at higher prices - but a small slow down in seller (and thus buyer) activity over the past two months will likely start to translate into slightly slower pace of sales, even if prices are not affected. Until next month, stay healthy, stay sane, and be in touch if I can be of any help to you or your family - with real estate or otherwise. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Housing Market Still Strong Through End Of March 2020 |
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 I'm working from home today, as is the norm for many of us these days. I hope that you and your family are in good health and good spirits as we travel through these unprecedented times. Before we get going, here are two articles I wrote a few weeks ago that are still quite applicable given the current scenario with COVID-19... What follows is an update on our local (Harrisonburg and Rockingham County) real estate market as measured by home sales data through the end of March 2020. Overall, you'll see that almost all indicators are still quite positive in our local market. If we are going to see an impact of COVID-19 on our local housing market, we might first see signs of that another month or two from now. Before we dive in, take a few minutes to learn more about this month's featured home - an upscale home in the Blue Stone Hills area - by visiting 2221PearlLane.com. Also, for those that like to cut to the chase, here's a PDF of my entire market report. Now, onto some data, and what we might conclude that it means...  As shown above...
So, we have been seeing a relatively strong and robust market through the end of March! It gets even more interesting when examined visually...  This year has certainly been quite a yo-yo when it comes to sales per month. We saw a record breaking number of sales in January (higher than the prior three months of January) and then a depressingly low number of sales in February (lower than the prior three months of February) and then things bounced right back up again in March to the highest month of March sales seen in the last few years. I suppose it's not totally unreasonable to think we could see another yo-yo move in April if home sales dip back down somewhat due to COVID-19. Read on a bit more for data on contract activity in March.  Looking at the data visually, again, you'll note that we saw the strongest first quarter of home sales in quite a few years in 2020. If this trend continues we would likely see 1,350+ home sales this year.  Looking now at contract data (above) you'll note that there were only 116 contracts signed in March 2020 - which is a drop off from the 132 contracts signed last March. However, when looking at the entire first quarter (Jan-Mar) this year's buyers have been a group of 320, while only 308 buyers showed up last year during the same timeframe. Last year, April was the strongest month of buyer activity -- as measured by when buyers are signing contracts -- and it will be interesting to see if that proves to be true this year.  Changes in housing inventory (the number of homes on the market for sale) were somewhat predictable over the past month. We usually see inventory levels starting to climb in March (we did this year) but we also saw an overall year-over-year decline in inventory levels, as we have been seeing for the past few years. This will be another good indicator to watch in the coming months to see how the number of homes on the market is affected by COVID-19.  If you're buying a home right now -- or refinancing your mortgage -- you are likely quite pleased with some super-low interest rates. The current average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (on a purchase, not a re-fi) is 3.5%. This creates an extraordinary opportunity for today's buyers to lock in their housing costs at a low level as it relates to the interest they are paying on their mortgage.  Any changes to this chart above will be telling in the coming months. We only have unemployment data through February right now, and at that point, things were looking great! This could change quite a bit moving forward. That is all of the graphs I'll throw at you today. In conclusion, through the end of March, our local housing market was continuing to move right along at a steady clip. Plenty of sellers are still listing their homes for sale. Plenty of buyers are still contracting to buy homes. Here are a few other articles that I have written over the past few weeks that explore some of the nuances of our market... As we continue through this unprecedented time, I'll continue to monitor where we are and contemplate where we might be headed, and I'll share them with you in my monthly market reports. Until next month, I hope you and your family remain healthy, and if you have questions about how current market dynamics might impact your plans for potentially buying or selling a home this year, feel free to reach out by sending me an email - scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Remain Strong in 2020 Despite Slower February |
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 This month's featured home (shown above) is located in Kentshire Estates and you can find out much more about it out by visiting 3241DanburyCourt.com. OK. Now. Let's set the stage... Home sales slowed and prices fell in February 2020. Ahhh! Is the sky falling? Before you lump this news in with the rise of the coronavirus and the decline of the stock market -- remember two things...
So, there we go. Read on to better understand both short and long term trends in our local housing market -- but don't let a few less-than-exciting short term trends make you think our local housing market is (necessarily) experiencing anything as dramatic as what you're hearing about in the (health and economic) news of the week. Moving out from my drawn out intro -- here's the PDF of the entire report -- and let's dive in...  Lots to see and think about above...
This next graph could - again - scare you, given the sort of crazy news we're hearing about all day long this week...  January 2020 was the strongest January we've ever seen -- and it was followed by one of the slower months of February in recent years. Again, should we panic? That red line is going nearly straight down! Here's my take on it -- any given month can be abnormally strong and any given month can be abnormally weak -- perhaps January was overly strong and February was overly weak. I come to this conclusion by looking at January and February sales combined, and am noting that the 161 sales in these two combined months is much higher than the same two months during the previous three years. So -- this isn't a message of "don't worry about that slow, slow February - everything is going to be just fine - trust me" -- it's more of a message of "the market still seems to be quite strong despite a slightly odd (slow) February." And now, we might be done with the nail biting portions of this monthly update on our local housing market, because most of the remainder of these graphs focus on the big picture and the long term trends...  As shown above, buyers have been steadily buying homes at a slightly (just slightly) faster pace for each of the past few years -- but they have been choosing from a smaller and smaller pool of homes for sale at any given time. This has created a strong "seller's market" where many homes are seeing a flurry of showings when they first come on the market and sometimes are seeing multiple offers.  I don't usually include the graph above in this monthly re-cap, but I thought it was helpful this month. The median sales price has declined slightly between 2019 and 2020 (looking only at January and February 2020, of course) but you will note that the median price per square foot has increased during that same timeframe. This is a good indicator that the downward shift in sales prices is likely a change in what is happening to sell, more so than a change in home values. If more smaller homes are selling thus far in 2020 (as compared to all of 2019) then the median sales price would decline while the median price per square foot increases.  Another important distinction to make when thinking about short term market trends -- changes in the pace of closed sales are not a good measure of current buyer behavior, they just show how many buyers were (or were not) signing contracts 30 to 60 days ago. So, the fact that there have been 204 contracts signed this January and February -- compared to only 176 last January and February -- is likely a good indicator that we will see (closed) home sales bounce back up again in March and April.  One of the main story lines of the past few years has been fewer and fewer choices for buyers in the market -- and this has continued into 2020. The number of homes on the market at any given time continues to fall -- and has now been (slightly) below 200 for three months in a row. This makes it a thrilling time to sell (many showings, sometimes multiple offers) but makes it a nerve-racking, frustrating time to (try to) buy a home.  OK -- if there is one trend in this report that is definitely and 100%, completely, and fully related to the coronavirus, this (above) is the one. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage on March 3 to try to combat any adverse economic effects of the coronavirus. That March 3rd rate cut isn't shown above, since my graph only goes through the end of February, but it caused the already low average rate of 3.45% to dip even lower, down to the current level of 3.29%, which is the lowest average mortgage rate that we have ever seen for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. OK, alright, we made our way through the data for the month. There is much more, of course, in the full PDF of my market report. As we continue to learn more about the coronavirus I hope that you and your family and friends remain well. I don't expect that we'll see drastic ramifications of the coronavirus on our local real estate market because I believe people will still need housing, and people will still have jobs - but we will all have to closely monitor how things develop from here. My advice from last month still applies... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat SOON about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we'll want to start by analyzing your segment of the market. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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Home Sales Soar To Surprising New Heights in January 2020 |
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 Time seems to be passing quickly these days, perhaps because my two kids are growing up faster than I can believe - age 15 (also known as "almost driving") and 11 (but 12 next month!). In the vein of time passing quickly, I was surprised to realize this week that the year is essentially 1/8th of the way over now!? How does the time slip by so quickly? Well, if you blinked, and missed January - you missed a LOT of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We'll get to that soon (keep reading) but first I'll point you to a few quick links... OK - now back to the business at hand - breaking down the latest trends in our local housing market. First, some of the basics...  As shown above...
If we then dive into detached (single family homes) and attached (townhouses, duplexes and condos) we find relatively similar trends...  In the breakdown above, you might note that...
And now, the visual of what we'll call a crazy January...  If there was one thing it seemed we could count on, it was that we'd see between 60 and 70 home sales in January. That's what we've seen for the past three years - and looking back even further (2010-2016) we find even lower months of January sales - 47, 40, 41, 49, 56, 49, 67. But not this year. This year started off with a BANG with a shockingly high 97 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Could this be an anomaly? Will February sales be miserably slow, bringing a January/February average to more normal levels? Maybe. Will every other month this year fall back in line with normal historical trends? Maybe. Or -- will this year be unlike any prior with much higher sales than expected, all year long? Maybe. Stay tuned to see how things shape up after this blockbuster month of sales in January. And look what this crazy January contributed towards...  The data above looks at 12 months of data at a time - month after month - to see long term trends. These long term trends have now pushed us to the point of having 3+ year highs in both categories shown - the pace of sales and the price of sales. The median sales price of $223,500 is higher than it has been in many more than three years. Likewise, the annual pace of 1,352 home sales is higher than it has been in over three years. So, it's a wild time right now in the local housing market with steady growth in sales prices and stable but strong numbers of home sales. Circling back to the prior question - will home sales taper off in February?  I'm going to lean towards "no" -- given that 95 contracts were signed in January -- many of which will result in February home sales. As an aside - I have been tracking "under contract" data since 2008 -- and there has never been a January with quite so many contracts signed as we saw this January. So, maybe February will be a relatively strong month for home sales as well? And these increases, while one major metric keeps decreasing...  Indeed, despite increasing sales, the number of homes on the market at any given time keeps declining. We've seen a 27% year-over-year decline in the number of active listings on the market. So, how do more homes sell if fewer homes are on the market? It seems that plenty of homes are coming on the market for buyers to buy - but because buyers are contracting to buy them so quickly these new listing aren't staying on the market long enough to allow inventory levels to see an effective increase. Speaking of buyers contracting to buy homes quickly...  More than half (58%) of homes that have sold in the past year were under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. Homes are, indeed, selling quickly. The median "days on market" currently stands at 18 days. A nice time to be a home seller if you're hoping not to have a prolonged period of time having buyers coming to view your house. Depending on your home's price, condition, layout, location, it may very well go under contract quickly! And today's buyers are paying lower mortgage interest rates than we've seen in a while...  The average mortgage interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has now dropped to 3.51% - the lowest rate seen in over three years. Buyers who are currently buying a home are fixing in lower monthly payments than they would have seen with any recent mortgage interest rate - though that is offset somewhat by the increases in median sales prices over the past few years. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. But until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat SOON about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we'll want to start by analyzing your segment of the market. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- get ready to compete with lots of other buyers in a low inventory housing market. To assist you, sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as soon as they come on the market! As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
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 Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market...  [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper...  [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find...  ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months...  As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement...  We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future...  Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap...  Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory...  The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find...  The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019 |
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 Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data...  As shown above...
Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes...  As shown above...
It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County...  As shown above...
But in the County...  As shown above...
And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity...  I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December.  When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016.  When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data.  Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom.  Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated.  While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year.  Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction??  Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties!  If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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